2026年4月27日 美国东部时间4:51 / 美联社报道
来源：哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
一名士兵下注推翻委内瑞拉领导人的行动。政客们为自己的选举赌博。就在总统宣布与伊朗停火的前一刻，大量押注该事件的筹码纷纷进场。
预测市场究竟是新闻爱好者下注押注事件的安全场所，还是内幕交易的温床？
随着多个州誓言要对其视为非法赌博业务的机构加强监管甚至直接取缔，整个行业正面临重大风险。特朗普家族也可能受到波及——他们正计划开设自己的预测市场平台。
当前预测市场的公平性在一定程度上取决于交易平台本身。尽管近期的头条新闻显示，所有平台都正经历青春期般的成长阵痛，且监管层已对此感到担忧，但各家平台的内部政策和规则各不相同。
问题之一在于，外部人士无法确切得知究竟是谁下了制胜赌注，这加剧了外界对部分参与者利用非公开信息交易的怀疑，并推动华盛顿方面要求开展整治行动。
北卡罗来纳州立大学金融学教授理查德·瓦尔表示：“该行业长期以来一直处于放任自流的状态，监管总是需要时间才能跟上行业发展。”
行业内两家主导平台的运营方式截然不同。
Polymarket主要在美国境外运营，给人一种毫无限制的“野孩子”印象。在拜登政府认定其不符合监管要求后，该平台曾一度被禁止在美国境内运营。
Polymarket使用加密货币结算赌注，允许用户使用假名并保持匿名。批评人士称，这会鼓励拥有内幕消息的人铤而走险，不过专家指出，Polymarket应当能通过账户和支付验证信息识别出这类用户。
Kalshi自2020年起就是受美国监管的交易所。与之形成鲜明对比的是，该平台要求客户出示身份证件，后台可掌握所有用户的真实姓名，但会对其他平台用户隐藏其身份。由于其业务在美国境内开展，还必须遵守美国的“了解你的客户”规则，确保洗钱者和其他犯罪分子不会利用其平台从事犯罪活动。
在争夺客户的竞争中，Kalshi试图将自己塑造成负责任、合规的一方。
“并非所有预测市场都一样，”Kalshi发言人伊丽莎白·戴安娜在本月早些时候围绕停火赌注呼吁加强监管的声音高涨时说道，她补充道：“我们支持国会和监管机构采取行动打击内幕交易。”
最新的内幕交易指控于本周曝光，此前一名陆军特种作战士兵被捕，他被指控在委内瑞拉前领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗被捕前，利用内幕信息在Polymarket下注。
Polymarket强调，其已向联邦当局通报了该士兵账户存在异常的情况，但目前尚不清楚用户是将此视为公司履职尽责的证据，还是认为其被过多恶意行为者压垮。Polymarket首席执行官谢恩·科普兰在X平台上发帖称：“我们已标记并移交了该问题，并在整个过程中予以配合。尽管许多人认为并非如此，但这类事在幕后一直在持续发生。”
Kalshi则采取了不同的态度，借此机会表示，这名士兵——甘农·肯·范戴克，其交易获利40万美元——此前曾尝试在Kalshi上下注马杜罗相关合约，但未通过审核并被拒绝。
“与我们的竞争对手大多在境外开展不受监管的交易不同，我们禁止并监管内幕交易，且不允许战争相关合约交易，”Kalshi一名发言人对美联社表示。
今年早些时候，以色列当局逮捕了两名士兵，他们涉嫌利用去年该国针对伊朗行动的机密信息进行交易，以及其他类似行为。
周三，Kalshi宣布有三名竞选联邦公职的政客为自己的选举下注。这些候选人分别是弗吉尼亚州的一名参议院参选人，以及来自德克萨斯州和明尼苏达州的两名国会参选人，他们均被处以罚款，并被禁止在Kalshi平台交易五年。
行业正紧急整顿
上个月，Kalshi宣布将禁止政治候选人就自己的竞选活动下注，并预先阻止任何参与大学或职业体育赛事的人员交易与其所参与赛事或雇佣方相关的合约。
Polymarket近期也修订了规则，明确规定用户不得交易可能掌握机密信息或影响事件结果的合约。
联邦政府认为，监管权归属其下属机构商品期货交易委员会，预测市场不受州赌博法管辖。该机构辩称，毕竟商品期货交易委员会早已监管银行向企业出售的用于对冲风险的金融衍生品，而预测市场的赌注与此类似。
部分州则坚决反对这一说法。
纽约州总检察长莉蒂夏·詹姆斯在起诉Coinbase和Gemini两家新平台涉嫌运营非法赌博业务后表示：“换个名字的赌博依然是赌博，不应免于监管。”
在加州和德克萨斯州等大州，赌徒利用预测市场规避体育博彩禁令，因此对商品期货交易委员会支持预测市场的反对声尤为强烈。犹他州共和党州长斯宾塞·考克斯今年2月在回应商品期货交易委员会主席迈克尔·塞利格的社交媒体帖子时写道：“我不记得商品期货交易委员会有权监管勒布朗·詹姆斯篮板球这类‘衍生品市场’。”考克斯誓言将“动用一切资源”阻止该市场进入犹他州。
国会也誓言将加强整治。
两党议员都在推动加强对战争、暗杀、恐怖袭击和人员死亡相关赌注的监管。联邦法律已赋予商品期货交易委员会权力，禁止部分所谓的事件合约交易，但部分议员寻求彻底取缔此类交易。民主党参议员亚当·希夫上月表示：“为生命赌博毫无正当理由”，他指出，战争相关赌注可能会向美国的敌人透露情报，因此构成国家安全风险。
如果该行业发展壮大，特朗普家族将从中获利——这再次成为其总统任期内的又一处利益冲突。
其长子小唐纳德·特朗普通过其担任合伙人的风险投资基金持有Polymarket的股份。他同时还是Polymarket和Kalshi的顾问。运营社交媒体平台Truth Social的特朗普企业还计划推出自己的预测市场平台Truth Predict。
至于总统本人，目前尚不清楚他是否会推动加强监管，尽管他的态度已有所转变。
周四，当被问及在线博彩时，他说道：“我向来不太支持，从概念上也不喜欢，但现状就是如此。现在，我对这类事情都不太满意。”
Prediction markets in hot seat over rogue bettors and insider trading
April 27, 2026 4:51 AM EDT / AP
Source: CBS News
A soldier betting on an operation to oust Venezuela’s leader. Politicians gambling on their own elections. Massive bets on the president announcing a ceasefire with Iran right before he actually did.
Are prediction markets safe places for news junkies to bet on events – or dens of insider trading?
A lot is at stake as states vow to heavily regulate or even ban what they view as illegal gambling operations. Even the Trump family could be impacted as it lays plans to open its own prediction market.
Just how fair prediction markets are now depends partly on the trading venue. They all have different internal policies and different rules, though recent headlines suggest they’re all going through adolescent growing pains – and the adults are worried.
Part of the problem is no one on the outside can tell who exactly is placing the winning bets, fueling suspicion some participants are trading on non-public information and triggering demands for Washington to crack down.
“There has been very much a laissez-faire” attitude toward the industry, said Richard Warr, professor of finance at NC State University. “Regulation always takes time to catch up.”
The two dominant players in the industry approach the business differently.
Polymarket operates primarily outside the U.S. and gives the impression of being a no-holds-barred wild child. It was even banned for a time from operating in the U.S. after the Biden administration ruled it wasn’t complying with regulations.
Polymarket uses cryptocurrencies to settle bets, enabling customers to use pseudonyms and remain anonymous. Critics say that encourages people with inside information to take a chance, though experts note that Polymarket should know who such people are from when the accounts and payments were verified.
Kalshi has been a U.S.-regulated exchange since 2020. By contrast, it requires its customers to show ID and so knows all their names on the back end, though it is shields their identities from other bettors on its site. And since it operates onshore, it also has to follow U.S. “Know Your Customer” rules to make sure money launderers and other assorted crooks are not using its market for criminal activities.
In the competition for customers, Kalshi is seeking to portray itself as the responsible, clean actor.
“Not all prediction markets are the same,” said Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana as calls grew for a crackdown earlier this month following the ceasefire bets. She added, “We support Congress and regulators taking action to police insider trading.”
The latest news of alleged insider trading came this past week after the arrest of an army special operations soldier accused of using inside information to bet in Polymarket before the capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.
Polymarket emphasized that it had alerted federal authorities that something was awry with the soldier’s account, though it’s not clear whether customers view this as evidence the company is a good policeman or just overwhelmed by too many bad actors. “We flagged this, referred it, and cooperated throughout the process,” Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan posted on X. “This happens constantly behind the scenes, despite what many are led to believe.”
Kalshi took a different take and seized upon the news to say the same soldier – Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who had netted $400,000 on his trades – had tried to make a Maduro bet earlier on Kalshi but didn’t pass muster and was turned down.
“Unlike competitors whose trading activity is mostly offshore and unregulated, we ban and police insider trading and don’t allow war markets,” a Kalshi spokesperson told the AP.
Earlier this year, Israeli authorities arrested two soldiers for allegedly trading on secret information on its country’s operations against Iran last year, among other things.
On Wednesday, Kalshi announced that three politicians running for federal office had gambled on their own elections. The candidates, one running for the Senate in Virginia and two congressional hopefuls from Texas and Minnesota, were fined and banned from Kalshi for five years.
The industry is scrambling to clean things up
Last month, Kalshi said it would ban political candidates from trading on their own campaigns, and it would preemptively block anyone involved in college or professional sports from trading contracts related to the sports they play or are employed by.
Polymarket also recently rewrote its rules to say clearly that users can’t trade on contracts where they might possess confidential information or could influence the outcome of an event.
The federal government maintains that oversight belongs to one of its agencies, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and prediction markets aren’t under the purview of state gambling laws. After all, it argues, the CFTC already oversees financial derivatives sold by banks to companies as a hedge against risks, and these prediction market bets are similar.
Some states fervently dismiss that argument.
“Gambling by another name is still gambling,” said New York state attorney general Letitia James after suing two new players – Coinbase and Gemini – for allegedly operating illegal gambling businesses. “It is not exempt from regulation.”
In big states like California and Texas, where bettors are using the markets to get around sports betting bans, the pushback to the CFTC’s support for prediction markets has been especially fierce. “I don’t remember the CFTC having authority over the ‘derivative market’ of LeBron James rebounds,” Republican Gov. Spencer Cox of Utah wrote in response to a social media post from CFTC chairman Michael Selig in February. Cox vowed to use “every resource” to block the market from his state.
Congress is vowing a crackdown, too.
Members on both sides of the aisle are pushing for more oversight of bets on war, assassinations, terrorist attacks and a person’s death. Federal law already gives the CFTC the authority to bar some of these so-called event contracts, but some lawmakers are seeking an outright ban. “There is no justification for gambling on lives,” said Democratic Sen. Adam Schiff last month, noting that bets on war could also tip off U.S. enemies and therefore are national security risks.
Mr. Trump’s family stands to profit if the industry grows — yet another conflict in a presidency rife with them.
His oldest son, Donald Trump Jr., has a stake in Polymarket through a venture capital fund in which he’s a partner. He’s also an adviser to both Polymarket and Kalshi. And the Trump business that runs the social media platform Truth Social has plans to build its own prediction market, called Truth Predict.
As for the president himself, its not clear if he’s going push for more regulation, though he has turned somewhat critical.
“I was never much in favor, and I don’t like it conceptually, but it is what it is,” he said Thursday, referring to the online bests. “Now, I think that I’m not happy with any of that stuff.”