2026-06-21T10:30:25.818Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/21/politics/us-iran-war-cost-trump-vis
- 这场为期100天的伊朗战争让五角大楼蒙受了350亿至400亿美元的损失，并有13名美国军人阵亡。
- 汽油价格飙升至每加仑4美元以上，柴油价格突破5美元，美国家庭和企业因此额外支出数十亿美元的燃油费用。
- 尽管通胀率达到4%、特朗普的支持率仅为37%、美国石油储备降至1983年以来的最低点，特朗普仍宣布取得了胜利。
AI生成的摘要经CNN编辑审核。
随着停战协议签署，进一步谈判即将启动，美国对伊朗的战争至少暂时告一段落，唐纳德·特朗普总统告诉美国民众他们赢得了战争。
“‘不用谢！’”特朗普周四在其社交媒体平台的帖子中写道，他还在帖中细数了他与伊朗签署的未来60天继续谈判的谅解备忘录带来的种种好处。
“石油正在恢复流通，伊朗永远无法拥有核武器（世界将因此安全！），股市持续飙升，就业人数创下纪录，物价正在下跌（负担得起！）。我们的国家比以往任何时候都更强大、更安全、更受尊重，”特朗普说道。
但客观分析这场持续100多天的冲突后发生的变化，就能发现比特朗普全大写发帖描述的更复杂的实情：冲突导致13名美国军人阵亡，该地区另有超过7500名平民丧生。
以下是能更全面展现这场战争如何影响美国的一系列关键数据和趋势：
根据战略与国际研究中心即将发布的初步分析数据，这场冲突给美国国防部造成的损失约为400亿美元。
战略与国际研究中心高级顾问马克·坎西恩告诉CNN，这一数字包括弹药、损毁装备和基地受损的成本，但未纳入已纳入国防部2026财年逾1万亿美元预算的作战开销。
两名美国政府消息人士向CNN透露，五角大楼已申请800亿美元的补充拨款。其中一名消息人士表示，这笔申请总额中仅有不到200亿美元与伊朗战争的即时需求相关，且未包括基地设施维修以及美国在该地区驻军的相关成本。
坎西恩表示，弹药是最大的开支项，并称美军“大量使用”了远程、高精度且造价高昂的武器。
例如，一枚战斧巡航导弹造价约250万美元，而美军使用了约1000枚，坎西恩透露。
专家和官员告诉CNN，美军消耗了关键导弹库存的很大一部分。特朗普于6月初援引《国防生产法案》，迫使国防企业增产武器。
根据战略与国际研究中心的测算，随着战争推进，空袭频次减少、昂贵武器使用量下降，战争的每日开销也有所降低。该中心估算，战争最初100小时的耗资达37亿美元，第12天时累计成本约为165亿美元。
除国防部承担了大部分开支外，战略与国际研究中心的初步数据显示，国土安全部和退伍军人事务部等其他机构也为此付出了10亿美元的成本。坎西恩表示，其中约1.65亿美元与“高油价”相关。
战争推高了油价，这对将依赖化石燃料钻探作为其议程核心内容的特朗普来说是一记苦涩的耳光。尽管美国多年来一直是全球最大的石油和天然气生产国，但市场具有全球性且结构复杂。战争期间，美国全国平均汽油价格从每加仑不足3美元大幅上涨至远超4美元。
如今霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输即将恢复正常，油价有望回落，但这可能需要时间。周五美国全国平均汽油价格为每加仑3.97美元，周四则降至4美元以下，这是自3月30日以来的首次。
根据布朗大学的能源成本追踪数据，如果没有这场战争，美国家庭本可以少支付超过253美元的燃油费用。
普通美国人已经感受到了油价上涨的压力，而农民和运输商则面临着柴油价格上涨的冲击。战争爆发前柴油均价约为3.80美元，截至6月15日已突破5美元，尽管较战争高峰期有所回落。
布朗大学的能源成本追踪系统发现，由于价格上涨，美国人在柴油上多支出了近271亿美元。
战争还推高了化肥价格，这可能对农业产生长期影响。
美国的战略石油储备储存在墨西哥湾沿岸的盐穴中，此次因俄乌战争被拜登政府动用，又因特朗普政府发动的对伊朗战争而进一步消耗。正如CNN记者马特·伊根所报道的，该储备目前已降至1983年以来的最低点——1983年里根政府时期该储备才刚开始充实。
近四个月以来，中东地区的石油一直未能正常外运。根据能源分析机构Kpler的数据，战争期间全球石油供应减少了11.5亿桶。
因此，全球各国都在尽可能从其他地区获取原油。
委内瑞拉和巴西提高了产量。美国向欧洲输送了大量航空燃油，向澳大利亚输送了柴油。特朗普政府解除了数亿桶俄罗斯和伊朗石油的制裁。32个国家协调释放了史上规模最大的紧急石油储备。
但这仍不足以弥补缺口。因此石油公司开始动用自身库存来满足客户需求。
俄克拉荷马州库欣是美国关键的石油枢纽，燃料通过管道输送至美国各地，目前该枢纽已达到运营压力极限——就像咖啡壶里的咖啡低于龙头位置，你需要倾斜容器才能将最后一点残渣倒进杯子里。油罐底部积聚的大部分物质都是无法使用的污垢，这使得维持管道输油压力变得困难，难以将石油输送给客户。
美国能源信息署上周报告称，库欣的油罐中仅剩下2000万桶石油。特朗普在凡尔赛举行的七国集团峰会上承认了这一问题。
“你想看到混乱吗？”特朗普说道，“我们的储备大约四周后就会耗尽。”
特朗普一直难以找到有说服力的政治论据来解释为何他的政策推高了物价。他有时会说“负担得起”的说法是个骗局。最近他则表示：“我喜欢通胀”，辩称通胀本可能更严重，战争结束后“物价会像石头一样暴跌”。
但通胀回落意味着物价上涨速度放缓，而非物价实际下跌，两者之间存在区别。
根据美国劳工统计局的最新数据，受能源价格推动，年度通胀率超过4%，这是三年来的首次。这远不及新冠疫情时期的高位，但却是美联储降息前普遍希望达到的水平的两倍。持续高通胀解释了为何美联储上周并未如特朗普所愿降息——尽管美联储主席是特朗普亲自任命的凯文·沃什。
但当前物价上涨速度超过了过去一年美国普通民众的工资涨幅。换句话说：4月和5月，通胀吞噬了你的加薪，这是2023年以来首次出现这种情况。
有一些迹象显示美国人抱有乐观情绪。根据密歇根大学一项长期开展的调查，消费者信心指数在连续三个月下滑后于6月有所回升，但仍远低于历史平均水平。
正如CNN记者布莱恩·梅纳所写的，民众普遍缺乏信心并不只是战争导致的。
战争刚结束时市场指数出现下跌，但特朗普可以继续吹嘘（并且已经多次吹嘘）尽管爆发了战争，股市仍持续创下新高。美国人可能普遍对经济感到悲观，部分原因是战争引发的通胀和汽油价格上涨，但投资者依然坚定。再加上SpaceX和人工智能领域的大型首次公开募股，即便经历了战争，那些有幸拥有401(k)退休账户的人仍会对自己的账户余额感到满意。
由于战争期间汽油价格上涨引发通胀担忧，债券遭到抛售。这导致10年期美国国债收益率在5月升至一年多来的最高水平，随后略有回落。
10年期国债收益率会影响消费者贷款利率，包括信用卡、汽车贷款和住房抵押贷款利率。
根据房地美的数据，30年期固定抵押贷款平均利率从上一周的6.52%（接近年度高点）降至上周的6.47%。更高的债券收益率推高了抵押贷款利率，导致房地产市场陷入停滞，让那些无法实现“美国梦”的人更加难以圆梦。
利率可能还会继续上升：美联储主席凯文·沃什在上周就任主席后的首次会议上表示，央行将加大力度抑制物价上涨。目前市场预计美联储将于今年晚些时候加息，这可能会推高抵押贷款利率。
特朗普拥有一群坚定的核心支持者，但大多数美国人不认可他的执政表现。因此在战争爆发前，他的支持率就已经跌破40%。2月时，仅有38%的美国人认可特朗普的工作表现。根据CNN的民调汇总数据，截至6月15日，这一数字已降至37%。
根据最近的福克斯新闻民调，特朗普对战争和经济的处理方式同样不受认可：31%的登记选民认可他对经济的处理，35%的选民认可他对伊朗问题的处理。
CNN的黑利·布里茨基对本文亦有贡献。
What the Iran war cost the Pentagon, the economy — and Trump
2026-06-21T10:30:25.818Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/21/politics/us-iran-war-cost-trump-vis
- The 100-day war with Iran cost the Pentagon between $35 billion and $40 billion and 13 American service members their lives.
- Gas prices surged above $4 per gallon and diesel topped $5, costing American households and businesses billions in extra fuel expenses.
- Trump has declared victory despite inflation hitting 4%, his approval rating at 37% and the nation’s oil reserves at their lowest since 1983.
AI-generated summary was reviewed by a CNN editor.
With an agreement signed and further talks set to commence, the US war with Iran is at a halt, at least for now, and President Donald Trump is telling Americans they have won.
“’YOU’RE WELCOME!” Trump wrote on Thursday in a post on his social media platform, where he also ticked through benefits of his memorandum of understanding to keep negotiating with Iran for the next 60 days.
“OIL IS FLOWING, IRAN CAN NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON (THE WORLD WILL BE SAFE!), THE STOCK MARKETS ARE ROARING, JOBS ARE AT RECORDS, AND PRICES ARE DROPPING (AFFORDABILITY!). OUR COUNTRY IS STRONG, SAFE, AND RESPECTED LIKE NEVER BEFORE,” Trump said.
But an objective analysis of what has changed after more than 100 days of the conflict, in which 13 American service members lost their lives along with more than 7,500 civilians in the region, suggests a more nuanced story than the one Trump put in all caps.
Here are some of the big numbers and trends that draw a fuller picture of how the war affected the US:
The conflict cost the Department of Defense is about $40 billion, according to preliminary numbers from an upcoming analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The figure includes cost of munitions, destroyed equipment and damage to bases, but does not incorporate operational costs that were already factored into the department’s more than $1 trillion fiscal year 2026 budget, Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at CSIS, told CNN.
The Pentagon has submitted a request for $80 billion in supplemental funding, two US government sources told CNN. Less than $20 billion of that total request is related to immediate needs from the Iran war, according to one source, who added that the figure does not include costs like repairs to facilities and US basing in the region.
Munitions were the largest expenditure, Cancian said, adding that there was a “high use” of weapons that were long-range, highly sophisticated and expensive.
For example, a Tomahawk missile costs around $2.5 million, and the US used about a thousand of them, according to Cancian.
Experts and officials tell CNN that the military used significant portions of key missile inventory. Trump invoked the Defense Production Act earlier in June to force defense companies to manufacture more weapons.
The daily cost of the war waned as it went on with less frequent strikes and decreased use of expensive weapons, according to CSIS, which estimated that the first 100 hours of the war cost $3.7 billion. On day 12, the cumulative cost was around $16.5 billion, the think tank found.
While the Defense Department bore the brunt of the expenses, the conflict cost other agencies, such as Homeland Security and Veterans Affairs, $1 billion, according to CSIS’ preliminary numbers. Approximately $165 million of that was related to “higher fuel prices,” Cancian said.
The war drove the price of gas up, a bitter pill for Trump, who has made reliance on fossil fuels drilling a key part of his agenda. But while the US has been the top oil and gas producer for years, the market is complex and worldwide. Gas prices rose from an average of less than $3 per gallon around the country to well more than $4 during much of the war.
Now that oil traffic is set to flow again through the Strait of Hormuz, look for prices to come down. But it will likely take time. The US average was $3.97 a gallon on Friday. On Thursday, it dropped below $4 for the first time since March 30.
According to an energy cost tracker from Brown University, American households have spent more than $253 more than what they would have paid if there was no war.
Everyday Americans have been feeling the pinch of gas prices, but farmers and shippers have been feeling the pinch from diesel. The average price was about $3.80 before the war started. It is over $5 as of June 15, which is down from earlier in the war.
Brown University’s energy cost tracker found that due to the increased price, Americans spent nearly $27.1 billion extra for diesel.
The war also drove up the price of fertilizer, which could have a long-term effect on farming.
The nation’s emergency reserve of oil, kept in salt caverns in the gulf coast, has been depleted both by the Biden administration as a result of Russia’s war on Ukraine and the Trump administration as a result of Trump’s war on Iran. As CNN’s Matt Egan reported, the reserve is now at its lowest level since 1983, when it was first being filled during the Reagan administration.
Oil hasn’t been coming out of the Middle East for nearly four months. All told, the world lost 1.15 billion barrels of oil supply during the war, according to Kpler.
So, the world has been taking crude from just about everywhere else it can get some.
Venezuela and Brazil ramped up production. The United States sent loads of jet fuel to Europe and diesel to Australia. The Trump administration de-sanctioned hundreds of millions of barrels of Russian and Iranian oil. And 32 countries coordinated the largest release of emergency oil stockpiles in history.
That still wasn’t enough. So oil companies started drawing from their own supplies to satisfy their customers’ demand.
A critical oil hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, which pipes fuel all around the United States, just hit its operational stress level – the equivalent of when the coffee drops below the spigot and you need to tip the urn to get the last bits of sludge into your mug. Much of what collects at the bottom of an oil tank is unusable gunk, making it hard to maintain pressure in the pipes to get oil out to customers.
The US Energy Information Administration reported last week that Cushing had just 20 million barrels of oil left in its tanks. That’s a problem that Trump acknowledged Wednesday at the G7 in Versailles.
“You want to see bedlam?” Trump said. “We run out of reserves in about four weeks.”
Trump has struggled to find a compelling political argument to explain why his policies have helped drive up prices. He has at times said the idea of “affordability” is a hoax. More recently, he said, “I love the inflation,” arguing it could be much worse and that when the war ended “it’s going to come down like a rock.”
But there’s a difference between inflation coming down, which means prices don’t rise as quickly, and prices actually falling.
Annual inflation was over 4% for the first time in three years, driven by those energy prices, according to recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s far from the highs of the Covid years, but double what the Federal Reserve generally wants to see before it lowers interest rates. The persistently high inflation helps explain why the Fed declined to cut rates last week, as Trump wants, despite now being led by his hand-picked Chairman Kevin Warsh.
But prices are now rising faster than the average American paycheck grew over the past year. In other words: Inflation ate your pay raise in April and May, the first time that had happened since 2023.
There is some evidence of optimism among Americans. After three consecutive months falling, consumer sentiment rose in June, according to a long-running survey conducted by the University of Michigan. But it is still well below historic averages.
The general lack of confidence is not just a result of the war, as CNN’s Bryan Mena wrote.
Market indices dipped in the immediate aftermath of the war, but Trump can continue to brag (and repeatedly has) that markets have continued to set records despite the war. Americans might be generally pessimistic about the economy in part as a result of inflation and rising gas prices caused by the war, but investors remain committed. Add in some big ticket IPOs from SpaceX and in the AI sector and, despite the war, people who feel good about their 401k balance if they’re lucky enough to have one.
Bonds have been selling off because of growing inflation concerns because of rising gas prices during the war. That sent the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield to its highest level in more than a year in May, before it fell back a bit.
The 10-year yield influences consumer loan rates, including credit cards, auto loans and home mortgages.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.47% last week, down from 6.52% the previous week, which was near the year’s high, according to Freddie Mac. Higher bond yields have pushed mortgage rates higher, keeping the housing market frozen and preventing people who can’t afford the American Dream from achieving it.
Rates may continue to rise: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh in his first meeting as chair last week said that the central bank would make a stronger push to get price hikes in check. The market now expects the Fed to hike rates later this year, potentially raising mortgage rates along with it.
The president has a committed core of supporters, but most of the country disapproves of how he’s handling his job. As a result, his rating was already dipping below 40% before the war started. Just 38% of Americans approved of Trump’s job performance in February. That figure is at 37%, as of June 15, according to CNN’s Poll of Polls.
Trump’s handling of the war and of the economy are similarly under water, according to a recent Fox News poll, in which 31% of registered voters approved of his handling of the economy and 35% approved of his handling of Iran.
CNN’s Haley Britzky contributed to this report.