民主党调查特朗普的风险


2026-11-12 / CNN

有两件事可以同时成立。

首先,特朗普政府威胁要反击,甚至可能起诉那些出于过度热情调查本届政府的民主党人,这种威胁很可能只是装腔作势,从法律角度来看影响不大。

但其次:从政治角度来看,民主党过度调查本届政府确实存在风险。

而民主党已经在这方面面临一些艰难的抉择。

最新民调显示,民主党人刚度过上周的蓝色浪潮带来的高涨情绪,却面临着一个风险——他们看起来过于执着于调查唐纳德·特朗普总统及其政府。

路透社与益普索在选举后开展的一项民调,询问了美国人对民主党新掌控的国会前100天的一系列潜在优先事项的看法。

在八个选项中,调查特朗普政府的优先级几乎是最低的。它远远落后于降低物价、结束伊朗战争和监管人工智能等事项,甚至落后于移民改革。

39%的人表示,希望新国会“大力”(27%)或“相当程度”(13%)关注调查特朗普政府;40%的人希望国会“不太关注”(13%)或“完全不关注”(27%)此事。其余人持中间态度或未发表看法。

唯一另一项让美国人意见如此分化的优先事项是应对气候变化与环境问题。37%的人希望将其列为优先事项,35%的人则不这么认为。

党派差异符合预期,相比共和党人,民主党人更希望国会将调查列为优先事项。但即便是在民主党内部,也只有约一半(52%)的人希望国会“大力”关注此事。

这些发现与美联社及芝加哥大学诺尔普查中心在选举前开展的一项民调结果相呼应。

当被问及对新国会而言,各类事项的优先级应处于什么水平时,约60%的美国人希望将调查特朗普政府列为至少一项优先事项。但只有36%的人希望将其列为最高优先级。

就最高优先级而言,它落后于降低生活成本(80%)、结束伊朗战争(68%)、削减联邦赤字(47%)以及在共和党与民主党之间寻求共识(43%)。

这些数字或许能解释为何民主党人在动用权力时显得有些犹豫不决。

尽管即将上任的众议院监督委员会主席罗伯特·加西亚在其所属政党赢得控制权后,上周反复高呼“准备诉讼”,但其他人士的表态则更为低调。

新众议院议长人选哈基姆·杰弗里斯等议员则谨慎地强调,他们寻求的是“问责”而非“报复”——这是特朗普用来形容自己报复民主党人的臭名昭著的说法。

“选民派我们到华盛顿不是为了政治报复,而是为了降低生活成本、根除腐败、让经济重回正轨,”得克萨斯州联邦参议员当选人詹姆斯·塔利科上周告诉CNN的艾琳·伯内特,“这才是我们的重点。”

通常,民主党人谈到问责时,会将特朗普政府涉嫌的腐败问题与生活成本问题联系起来——称特朗普及其盟友发了财,而普通美国人却在苦苦挣扎。

本周,民主党人因可能走得太远而引发的担忧加剧了——尤其是在众议院共和党人阻止了针对国防部长皮特·赫格塞思的弹劾行动之后。这项弹劾倡议由即将卸任的共和党议员托马斯·马西牵头,却得到了民主党领导层的支持。

即将上任的众议院军事委员会主席亚当·史密斯随后表示,民主党人应该“花点时间”来决定,在1月接管国会(届时他们将掌握足够的众议院票数发起弹劾)时,弹劾赫格塞思是否符合其“更广泛的目标”。

与此同时,北卡罗来纳州民主党众议员当选人理查德·奥杰达周二晚告诉CNN的劳拉·科茨,弹劾特朗普意味着“我们会把他变成烈士”。

不过,民调数据中存在一些细微差别,使得这些决策变得困难。

例如,美国人对腐败相当关注。CNN选民民调显示,2026年选举中,更多选民将腐败视为投票的关键因素(55%),而非将生活成本视为关键因素(49%)。

近期民调还显示,约三分之二的美国人认为特朗普利用公职为自己谋利。

或许美国人所说的“调查政府”是指一系列永无止境的、不会带来任何具体惩罚的调查——比如“通俄门”调查、特朗普的弹劾案等等——而实际上,他们可能对针对包括特朗普在内的政府官员利用职权谋利的调查持相当支持态度。

实际上,民主党人面临的两难困境,很大程度上不在于是否要调查政府,而在于选择合适的调查对象——毕竟特朗普对政府道德的宽松态度给了他们太多选择。

弹劾赫格塞思甚至特朗普在政治上或许意义不大,但调查总统时机可疑的股票交易、以及他的社交媒体公司出售其能影响市场的帖子的提前访问权限,则是有意义的。

或许调查前美国驻希腊大使金伯利·吉尔弗利特涉嫌受贿、以及前司法部高级官员阿琳娜·哈巴在仍任职期间,就与一名不久后获得特赦的男子签署500万美元就业协议的行为,会引发公众关注。(两名女性均否认存在不当行为,《纽约时报》报道称,哈巴此后已失去该合同。)

民主党人真正的两难在于,凭借新获得的权力,他们除了调查与问责之外,可能几乎做不了什么。毕竟特朗普已经发誓要当“否决先生”,很可能不会签署他们提出的法案。

但早期迹象表明,民主党人明智的做法是精心选择调查目标,同时确保美国民众看到他们也在推进其他事务。

The danger for Democrats in investigating Trump

2026-11-12 / CNN

Two things can be true at the same time.

First, the Trump administration’s threats to fight and possibly even prosecute Democrats for overzealously investigating the administration are probably posturing that matters little from a legal perspective.

But second: There is a risk in Democrats overzealously investigating the administration, from a political perspective.

And Democrats are already running into some hard choices on that front.

New polling reinforces that Democrats, who are coming off the high of last week’s blue wave, confront some risk in looking like they are overly consumed with investigating President Donald Trump and his administration.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted after the election asked Americans about a series of potential priorities for the first 100 days of the new Democratic majorities.

Out of eight options, investigating the Trump administration was about tied for the lowest priority. It ranked far behind things like lowering prices, ending the Iran war and regulating artificial intelligence. It even ranked behind immigration reform.

While 39% said they wanted the new Congress to focus “a great deal” (27%) or “quite a bit” (13%) on investigating the Trump administration, 40% wanted it to focus on that “not too much” (13%) or “not at all” (27%). The rest were in the middle or didn’t weigh in.

The only other priority that split Americans like that was addressing climate change and the environment. While 37% wanted to prioritize that, 35% did not.

The partisan differences are about what you’d expect, with Democrats much more likely to want Congress to prioritize investigations than Republicans. But even among Democrats, only around half (52%) want Congress to focus “a great deal” on that.

The findings echo a poll conducted just before the election by the Associated Press and NORC at the University of Chicago.

When asked how much of a priority various things should be for the new Congress, about 6 in 10 Americans wanted investigating the administration to be at least a priority. But only 36% wanted it to be a top priority.

As far as top priorities go, it ranked behind lowering the cost of living (80%), ending the Iran war (68%), reducing the federal deficit (47%) and finding common ground between Republicans and Democrats (43%).

These numbers might help explain why Democrats appear a little uncertain about bringing down the hammer.

While incoming House Oversight Committee Chairman Robert Garcia repeatedly exclaimed “lawyer up” last week after his party won power, others have been more muted.

Lawmakers such as likely new House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries have been careful to emphasize that they seek “accountability” rather than “retribution” (the word Trump has infamously used for his efforts to get back at Democrats).

“They didn’t send us to Washington for political retribution; they sent us to Washington to lower costs, to root out corruption, to get this economy back on track,” Texas Sen.-elect James Talarico told CNN’s Erin Burnett last week. “And that needs to be our focus.”

And often when Democrats talk about accountability, they’ll link alleged Trump administration corruption to cost-of-living concerns — saying Trump and his allies have gotten rich even as regular Americans struggle.

Concerns about going too far flared up this week — particularly after House Republicans blocked an effort to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, which was led by outgoing GOP Rep. Thomas Massie but supported by Democratic leadership.

Incoming House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith said afterward that Democrats should “take a minute” to decide whether impeaching Hegseth when they take over Congress in January — and have plenty of votes in the House to do it — serves their “broader objectives.”

Rep.-elect Richard Ojeda of North Carolina, meanwhile, told CNN’s Laura Coates late Tuesday that impeaching Trump would mean that “we martyr him.”

There are some nuances in the numbers, though, that make these decisions difficult.

Americans, for instance, are quite concerned about corruption. The CNN Voter Poll showed more voters in the 2026 election said corruption was a crucial factor in their vote (55%) than said the same about the cost of living (49%).

And recent polls have also shown about two-thirds of Americans think Trump has used his office to enrich himself.

Perhaps Americans interpret “investigating the administration” as another endless series of probes that don’t lead to any concrete punishments — like the Russia investigations, Trump’s impeachments, etc. — when, in fact, the same people could be quite supportive of probes targeting government officials, including Trump, using their power to enrich themselves.

Indeed, a big part of Democrats’ dilemma isn’t so much choosing whether to investigate the administration, but choosing the right subjects since Trump’s lax approach to governmental ethics has given them so many options.

Perhaps impeaching Hegseth or even Trump doesn’t make much political sense, but probing the president’s suspiciously well-timed stock trades and his social media company selling early access to his market-moving posts does.

Maybe investigating former US Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle for allegedly selling influence and former top DOJ official Alina Habba for landing a $50 million employment agreement with a man who received a pardon around the same time, while still serving in the DOJ, would capture people’s attention. (Both women have denied wrongdoing, and Habba has since lost the contract, the New York Times reported.)

The real dilemma for Democrats is that there’s probably not much they can do with their newfound power besides investigations and accountability. It’s not like Trump, who’s already vowed to be “Mr. Veto,” is going to sign the legislation they produce, in all likelihood.

But the early signs suggest Democrats would be well-advised to choose their targets wisely — and make sure the American people see them doing other things, too.

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