2026-11-10 / CNN
在唐纳德·特朗普总统周一举行的新闻发布会上，深入探究后不难发现，在弹劾风波中他为何如此坚决地支持国防部长皮特·赫格塞思（Pete Hegseth）。
归根结底，特朗普是在为自己辩护。
若此时解雇这位前福克斯新闻主播，就等于承认伊朗战争是个错误——而赫格塞思正是这场战争最激烈的拥护者。罢免他也会破坏特朗普试图扭转的局面：往好了说，这是一场无果而终的军事冒险；往坏了说，就是一场战略灾难。
周一，就在特朗普的头号敌人、共和党议员托马斯·马西（Thomas Massie）在众议院对国防部长提出八项弹劾条款之际，特朗普发表了迄今为止对赫格塞思最有力的支持。在另一场超现实的公开露面中，他还自称为“有点好玩”，再次邀请终极格斗冠军赛（UFC）总裁达纳·怀特（Dana White）担任新闻秘书，随后又表示自己“只是在开玩笑”。
“但说真的，赫格塞思到底做了什么？”特朗普问记者，“他赢得了战争。他当时负责指挥。我之前说过，他在48分钟内就赢了委内瑞拉战争。完美无瑕，没有人员死亡。而且我认为他肯定已经赢得了伊朗战争，或者说他正在赢得这场战争。”
为营救尼古拉斯·马杜罗（Nicolás Maduro）总统而开展的特种部队突袭行动确实大胆且危险，但根本算不上一场战争。而关于美国已在伊朗获胜——至少在战略意义上——的说法也值得商榷。
除了战争因素，这位正日益缩小核心圈子的总统不愿解雇赫格塞思还有政治层面的原因。
这位五角大楼主管是内阁成员中最有意识地复刻特朗普政治个性的人。他敢于将媒体赶出五角大楼；发起文化战争和反“觉醒”运动；还似乎决心将弹劾视为荣誉勋章。如果特朗普抛弃这位将五角大楼重新命名为“战争部”的人，就相当于在毁掉自己的品牌。
然而，当特朗普在白宫新闻发布厅对赫格塞思所处的所谓不公处境大发雷霆之际，他也凸显了向自己逼近的政治陷阱。他正在打最后一场政治仗：数百万中期选举选民刚刚斥责了他发动的这场战争及其对抗性政治。如果他死扛到底，处境可能会更糟。
无论是特朗普还是赫格塞思，似乎都活在自己选择的现实中——而在这场战争里，一个规模更小、实力更弱的极权政权已经挺过了美国超级大国的攻势。这场战争已经耗费了数百亿美元，且代价仍在持续；疏远了美国在海湾地区的盟友；还引发了能源危机和生活成本危机。
总统在周日播出的哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）《60分钟》节目中表示，对于这场冲突，他“不会改变任何事”。赫格塞思周一告诉记者，他很乐意“整天为政府军事行动的‘成功’辩护”。
特朗普称自己已彻底根除伊朗核计划的说法，可能需要数年才能全面评估。但继续向选民声称他们厌恶的这场战争是一场胜利，似乎是一个永无出头之日的政治命题。
弹劾是公职人员可能面临的最严重的宪法命运。至少在特朗普上台前那个似乎已经瓦解的正常政治世界里是如此。赫格塞思被指控的罪名包括：违反宪法战争权限制，非法对伊朗发动战争；无视旨在减轻平民伤亡的法律；滥用职权，监督在加勒比和太平洋针对疑似贩毒船只的“法外处决”。
每一项弹劾条款——其中还涵盖在也门的空袭，以及惩罚亚利桑那州参议员马克·凯利（Mark Kelly）告诉军人可以拒绝非法命令的行为——都引发了严肃的宪法辩论。
“现实情况是，我们起诉他并非因为他工作表现不佳。事实上，他在伊朗杀害学童方面非常‘高效’，”马西表示，“他在法外处决方面非常‘高效’。这些弹劾条款中没有任何论点说他无能，论点是他违反了法律，也违反了宪法。”
但从某种意义上说，特朗普是对的：这是一个高度政治化的进程。
马西长期以来一直是特朗普的对手，他因成功推动通过一项将爱泼斯坦（Epstein）档案公开的法律而招致总统的愤怒。特朗普曾支持特朗普爱国运动（MAGA）的初选对手，帮助提前结束了马西的政治生涯。“他是个疯子，真的，有问题，”特朗普周一猛烈抨击马西是“彻头彻尾的失败者”。
马西也毫不留情。他还讽刺了赫格塞思，并预测这位国防部长将在周二罕见召开的新闻发布会上如何回应：“我希望他能谈谈这八项条款，不要站起来像昆汀·塔伦蒂诺电影里那样错误引用《圣经》、做几个引体向上，然后，你知道的，叫所有人胖子、同性恋，就因为这些人支持这场弹劾，”马西告诉记者。
马西推动弹劾的时机也意义重大。在共和党中期选举惨败后，这将让心怀不满的跛脚共和党议员对特朗普和导致他们失业的那场战争投下报复性一票。相当数量的共和党叛离者可能会削弱赫格塞思的权威，并增加特朗普支持他的代价。
民主党人则乐见这场闹剧。
“正如我明确表示的，我绝对支持这项弹劾决议，”众议院少数党领袖、很可能成为下一任众议院议长的哈基姆·杰弗里斯（Hakeem Jeffries）周一表示。他将伊朗战争计划戏称为“史诗级失败行动”，并补充道：“皮特·赫格塞思滥用职权，损害美国国家安全。他是这场鲁莽且代价高昂的伊朗不义之战的策划者，这场战争推高了普通美国人的油价，让国家变得更不安全。”
众议院民主党人很乐意投票弹劾任何一位特朗普政府官员。但在新一届国会中，他们必须把握好分寸：既要在计划中的特朗普调查中避免过度行动，又要满足选民缓解生活成本危机的要求。
不过，由一名共和党人发起的这次弹劾，实质上给了民主党人一个自由投票的机会，让他们不必因自行推动此事而面临任何政治风险。
赫格塞思的赌博——以及他最终可能无法挺过的原因
赫格塞思的新闻发布会可能不会按马西的剧本走。但这是一场冒险。如果发布会的风格和他为自我辩护发布的、显然是为了吸引特朗普注意的攻击性视频类似，他可能会加深共和党众议员对他表现的不满，无意间为弹劾他提供了依据。
短期内他似乎不太可能被解职，因为在任何参议院弹劾审判中，要达到定罪所需的三分之二多数似乎都不太可能。
但这位因战争而得罪两党的国防部长并不会就此脱离险境。周一，在军事委员会任职的共和党参议员凯文·克莱默（Kevin Cramer）告诉记者，他不支持弹劾，但补充道：“他是否应该留任，取决于他自己和他的家人，还是总统，”他说。
而且，当特朗普需要在民主党占多数的国会推动国防开支请求时，赫格塞思可能会成为一个负担。
马西周一告诉美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）的凯特兰·柯林斯（Kaitlan Collins），他认为赫格塞思“极有可能”撑不到年底。
“他们会支持他，直到他们不支持的那天，”马西预测，新一届国会将传唤在赫格塞思手下任职的官员，“那些目睹过一些事情、知道一些甚至尚未公开的事情的人。”
然后是那场不会结束的战争。
特朗普周一表明，他仍然没有永久和平的计划，在预测即将达成协议、声称这根本不是一场真正的战争，以及警告他已“严阵以待，准备发起新的进攻”之间摇摆不定。
如果他无法脱身，这场战争将玷污他在任最后两年。但要在赫格塞思仍待在五角大楼的情况下开启政治新篇章，谈何容易。
因此，这位国防部长最危险的时刻可能不是在弹劾之后，而是在特朗普最能保护自己的时候——此时他的选择不是为赫格塞思辩护，而是将他推下水。
Why Trump can’t let Hegseth go … yet
2026-11-10 / CNN
Deep into President Donald Trump’s news conference Monday, it became obvious why he’s so adamant in backing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth amid an impeachment storm.
Ultimately, Trump is defending himself.
To jettison the former Fox News anchor now would be to admit that the Iran war — of which Hegseth is the administration’s most vehement proponent — was a mistake. A sacking would also undermine Trump’s attempt to recast what is at best an inconclusive military adventure and at worst a strategic disaster.
Trump delivered his most forceful endorsement yet of Hegseth on Monday just after the president’s arch-foe, Republican Rep. Thomas Massie, introduced eight articles of impeachment against the defense secretary in the House. His vote of confidence came in another surreal public appearance that he described as a “little fun” as he again offered Ultimate Fighting Championship czar Dana White the job of press secretary, then said he was “sort of kidding.”
“But really, what has Hegseth done?” Trump asked reporters. “He won the war. He was in charge. He won the war in Venezuela, as I said, (in) 48 minutes. It was flawless. Nobody killed. And he certainly — I think he’s won the war in Iran, but he’s certainly winning the war.”
The special forces raid that extracted President Nicolás Maduro was daring and dangerous, but it was hardly a war. And the idea that the US has won in Iran — at least in a strategic sense — is questionable.
Beyond the war, there are political reasons why a president who is retreating into an ever-smaller inner circle may be loath to let Hegseth go.
The Pentagon chief is the Cabinet member who has most consciously succeeded in replicating Trump’s political id. He dared to kick the press out of the Pentagon; wages culture wars and anti-woke crusades; and seems determined to wear impeachment as a badge of honor. If Trump rejected the man who rebranded the Pentagon the “Department of War,” he’d be trashing his own brand.
Yet as he raged at the perceived unfairness of Hegseth’s position in the White House Briefing Room, Trump also highlighted a political trap closing around him. He’s fighting the last political battle: Millions of midterms voters just rebuked his war and his confrontational politics. By digging in, he may make his plight worse.
Both Trump and Hegseth seem to be living in their own chosen reality amid a war in which a smaller, less powerful, repressive regime has survived the US superpower onslaught. The war has cost tens of billions of dollars and counting; alienated US allies in the Gulf; and triggered an energy and cost of living crisis.
The president said on Sunday’s edition of CBS’ “60 Minutes” that he “wouldn’t change a thing” about the conflict. Hegseth told reporters Monday that he’d be happy to “litigate … the success” of administration military operations “all day long.”
Trump’s claims that he’s eradicated Iran’s nuclear program for good may take years to fully evaluate. But continuing to argue to voters that a war they hate is a triumph seems like an endlessly losing political proposition.
Impeachment is the gravest constitutional fate that can befall a public official. At least it was, in the normal political world that seemed to disingtegrate once Trump took office. Hegseth is accused, among other things, of illegally waging war in Iran in violation of constitutional war powers restrictions; of ignoring laws designed to mitigate civilian casualties; and of abusing his powers by overseeing “extrajudicial killings” against alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and Pacific.
Each of the articles of impeachment — which also cover strikes in Yemen and the attempt to punish Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly for telling service members they can refuse illegal orders — raises a genuinely serious constitutional debate.
“The reality is we’re not indicting him for being bad at his job. In fact, he was very effective at killing schoolchildren in Iran,” Massie said. “He was very effective at extrajudicial killings. There’s no argument in these impeachment articles that he’s ineffective. The argument here is that he’s broken laws and he’s violated the Constitution.”
But in a sense, Trump is correct: This is a deeply political process.
A longtime Trump antagonist, Massie drew the president’s ire for his successful efforts to pass a law opening the Epstein files to public view. The president was instrumental in cutting short Massie’s political career by backing a MAGA primary rival. “He’s a sick, sick guy. There’s something wrong with him, actually,” Trump said Monday, blasting Massie as a “stone-cold loser.”
Massie returns the compliment. And he lampooned Hegseth in predicting how he’d respond in a rare news conference the defense secretary has called for Tuesday. “I hope he addresses the eight articles and doesn’t get up and misquote the Bible in Quentin Tarantino fashion and do some pull-ups and, you know, call everybody fat and gay, like for being for this impeachment,” Massie told reporters.
The timing of Massie’s impeachment drive is also significant. After the Republican midterm wipeout, it will allow aggrieved lame-duck GOP lawmakers to cast a revenge vote against Trump and the war that propelled the loss of their jobs. A sizable group of Republican defectors could undermine Hegseth’s authority and raise the costs to Trump of standing by him.
Democrats are just loving the spectacle.
“I’m a hard yes, as I’ve made clear, on the impeachment resolution,” House Minority Leader and likely next House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries said Monday. He mocked the Iran war plan as “Operation Epic Failure,” adding that “Pete Hegseth has abused his power, undermined America’s national security. And he’s the architect of the reckless and costly failed war of choice in Iran, which has skyrocketed gas prices on everyday Americans, made the country less safe.”
House Democrats would gleefully vote to impeach any Trump official. But they’ll have to walk a fine line in the new Congress as they try to avoid overreaching in their planned Trump investigations while honoring voters’ demands to ease the affordability crisis.
But the current impeachment, brought by a Republican, essentially gives Democrats a free vote and insulates them against any political downside of pursuing the issue themselves.
Hegseth’s gamble — and why he may not ultimately survive
Hegseth’s news conference may not follow Massie’s script. But it’s a risk. If it replicates hyper-aggressive videos he’s released in his own defense — apparently to catch Trump’s eye — he may deepen disquiet about his performance among GOP House members and inadvertently make the case for his impeachment.
He seems safe from being ejected from office in the short term, since a two-thirds majority to convict seems unlikely in any Senate impeachment trial.
But a defense secretary who has angered both parties over the war won’t be out of the woods. On Monday, Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer, who serves on the Armed Services Committee, told reporters he didn’t back impeachment but added: “Whether he should keep his job or not is up to either him and his family or the president,” he said.
And Hegseth could prove to be a liability when Trump needs to get defense spending requests through a Democratic Congress.
Massie told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on Monday that he believed there was “a high probability” that Hegseth wouldn’t make it to the end of the year in office.
“They stand by them, until the day they don’t,” Massie said, predicting that the new Congress would call in officials who’d served under Hegseth “who’ve seen some things and know some things that aren’t even public yet.”
Then there’s the war that won’t end.
Trump showed Monday he’s still got no plan for a permanent peace, veering between predictions of an imminent deal; claims that it was not a real war anyway; and a warning he was “locked and loaded and ready to go” for a new assault.
If he can’t extricate himself, the war will besmirch his final two years in office. But turning a political page would be tricky with Hegseth still at the Pentagon.
The defense secretary’s most perilous moment may therefore come not after impeachment but at the moment when Trump can best protect himself not by defending Hegseth, but by pitching him overboard.
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