2026-11-05T15:18:45.610Z / CNN
CNN选民调查数据显示，两年前助力唐纳德·特朗普重返总统宝座的联盟正开始分裂，民主党参议院候选人正在争取选民支持，以此在本次选举周期中拿下传统共和党铁票仓的席位。
在特朗普选民占中期选举选民主体的五个州——德克萨斯州、俄亥俄州、爱荷华州、堪萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州——民主党候选人赢得的选区中，约有十分之一的特朗普选民今年转而支持民主党候选人。佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州的民主党候选人也分别赢得了本州超过十分之一的特朗普选民的支持。
所有这些州都是特朗普在中期选举前四处造势的地方，他试图为自己的基本盘打气、遏制共和党失利——还经常敦促支持者把他当成候选人本人来对待。
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但在2024年中期选举中支持特朗普的选民里，只有约三分之一的人表示，自己今年的众议院投票是在向总统示好，多数人都称特朗普根本不是一个影响因素。
全国范围内，自称在今年选举中投了特朗普的选民中，约7%的人表示，他们会支持本选区的民主党国会候选人。
（相比之下，本次中期选举中，2024年为卡玛拉·哈里斯投票的选民中，超过四分之三的人表示，自己的众议院投票是为了表达对特朗普的反对——而只有2%的人称自己投给了共和党候选人。）
特朗普的基本盘还有另一个未在选民调查结果中体现的流失源：他的支持者中，有一部分人因为缺乏热情或动力，直接决定放弃今年的中期选举投票权。但即便在那些去投票站的选民中，特朗普联盟内部的分裂也清晰可见。
在全国中期选举选民中，2024年投给特朗普的选民里，有20%现在表示不认可他，差不多比例的人认为总统没有为他们这类人发声，或是优先事项不对。
这反映出人们对特朗普第二任期的多项决定存在不满。一半的人表示，美国经济状况不算好或很差；约27%的人称特朗普的经济政策实际上让情况变得更糟。四分之一的人认为美国对伊朗采取军事行动是错误的决定——副总统JD·万斯周三曾特别指出，这一决定是共和党在中期选举中失利的关键因素。
“主要问题不在于投票率，”万斯在中期选举后的分析中表示。“主要问题在于，很多在2024年投了特朗普/万斯的人，在2026年把票投给了民主党。”
CNN选民调查是前几届出口民调的延续，结合了选举日当天在投票站进行的传统面对面采访，以及选举前几周在全国范围内开展的数万次访谈。
这一做法让研究人员得以深入分析特朗普2024年联盟的人口结构——并发现，对他第二任期走向的不满，在一些群体中尤为强烈。在中期选举选民中，近一半30岁以下的男性特朗普选民现在表示不认可他的总统任期，约四分之一的拉丁裔特朗普选民也持同样看法，还有约三分之一自认为不属于MAGA阵营的共和党特朗普选民也持反对态度。
鉴于特朗普将在两年后卸任，共和党总统候选人提名的继任者能否重新凝聚这个正在分裂的联盟，仍是未知数。
这项由SSRS开展的CNN选民调查于10月19日至11月3日进行，样本涵盖了全国约10万名有代表性的选民。该调查结合了在线和电话向已确认登记选民收集的数据，以及在15个州投票站收集的面对面数据。选举日前收集的数据包括选举前和选举日的选民样本，且已根据选民的投票概率进行加权调整。针对选举日前无法确认已投票的选民，研究人员进行了重新联系访谈，以确认他们的投票选择和投票情况。受访者可选择用英语或西班牙语完成调查。全国全样本结果的边际误差为正负0.5个百分点；子组和个别州的误差更大。了解调查方法的更多信息请点击此处，查看结果请点击此处。
CNN Voter Poll: Democrats’ Senate sweep shows a fracturing MAGA movement
2026-11-05T15:18:45.610Z / CNN
The coalition that helped return Donald Trump to the presidency two years ago is beginning to fracture, CNN Voter Poll data shows, with Democratic Senate candidates peeling away voters to win seats in deeply Republican territory this cycle.
In five races won by Democrats in states where Trump voters made up the lion’s share of the midterm electorate – Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, and South Carolina – roughly one-tenth of those Trump voters backed the Democratic candidate this year. Democratic candidates in Georgia and North Carolina also won more than one-tenth of Trump voters in their states.
All of those are states that Trump visited in the run-up to the midterm in an effort to rally his base and stave off Republican losses – often exhorting supporters to pretend that he was on the ballot.
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But among the midterm voters who backed him in 2024, only about one-third say they viewed their House vote this year as a message of support for the president, with most saying that he wasn’t a factor at all.
Nationally, about 7% of self-reported Trump voters who turned out in this year’s election said they were backing a Democratic congressional candidate in their district.
(By contrast, more than three-quarters of 2024 Kamala Harris voters in this midterm said they viewed their House vote as a way to express opposition to Trump – and just 2% said they’d voted for a GOP candidate.)
There’s another source of erosion in Trump’s base not reflected in the Voter Poll results: the share of his supporters who, unenthusiastic or unmotivated, simply decided to sit this year’s midterm out. But even among those who went to the polls, fractures in the Trump coalition are visible.
Among the national midterm electorate, 20% of 2024 Trump voters now say they disapprove of him, with similar shares saying that the president doesn’t fight for people like them or have the right priorities.
That reflects a streak of unhappiness with Trump’s second-term decisions. Half say that economic conditions in the country are not so good or poor, and around 27% say that Trump’s economic policies have actively made things worse. A quarter say the US made the wrong decision in taking military action against Iran – a decision that Vice President JD Vance singled out on Wednesday as a key factor in Republicans’ midterm loss.
“The main problem is not turnout,” Vance said in his post-midterms analysis. “The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.”
The CNN Voter Poll, a successor to previous years’ exit polls, combines traditional in-person interviews at polling places on Election Day with tens of thousands of interviews conducted nationwide in the weeks before the election.
That provides the ability to drill down into the demographics of Trump’s 2024 coalition – and to find that dissatisfaction with the direction of his second term is particularly acute among some groups. Among the midterm electorate, nearly half of male Trump voters under 30 now say they disapprove of his presidency, as do around one-quarter of Latino Trump voters, and about one third of Trump voters who identify as non-MAGA Republicans.
With Trump set to leave office in two years, it’s an open question whether his successor on the Republican ticket will be able to bring back together the fracturing coalition.
The CNN Voter Poll conducted by SSRS was conducted from October 19-November 3, and includes a representative sample of approximately 100,000 voters nationwide. The Voter Poll combines data collected from verified registered voters online and by telephone, with data collected in-person at polling locations in 15 states. Data collected before Election Day includes both pre-election and Election Day voters and has been weighted by voters’ probability of turning out. Recontact interviews were conducted among people who could not be verified as having voted prior to Election Day to confirm their choices and turnout. Respondents could complete the poll in English or Spanish. Results for the full national sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 0.5 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups and in individual states. Learn more about how the surveys were conductedhere, and see resultshere.
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