战争、行政令与大规模建设：特朗普在跛脚总统任期内的预期表现

Wars, executive actions, and a lot of construction: How Trump is expected to handle being a lame-duck president

2026-11-04 / CNN

President Donald Trump, resoundingly rejected by voters on Tuesday night, is entering the final phase of his elected career wounded but newly determined to retain an iron grip on power.

The concluding years of his presidency will be frustrating ones, many of his allies admit, as Democrats embark on promised investigations that could ensnare the president and his top allies. Amid those fights, Republicans will eventually move to identify Trump’s successor, perhaps more quickly than the president once expected.

Trump has not ruled out trying to strike deals with the newly empowered Democrats, and some advisers say the president’s capacity for forging unlikely partnerships could serve him well as his time in office wanes. No longer the opposition party, Democrats will be under pressure to show an ability to govern, which could incentivize deal-making with Trump.

But he’s also recently dubbed himself “Mr. Veto” when musing about how he would handle Democrats controlling the legislative branch, and his record during his first term as president doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in cross-aisle cooperation. One source involved in internal discussions said while Trump may appear conciliatory in the immediate post-election moment, his behavior in the years ahead will come down to how Democrats wield their power.

“If you have a Congress that’s willing to strike deals, he’s a deal-maker,” the source said. “If you have a Congress that’s going to come in and immediately only focus on investigations — then you’re going to get a very different version of Trump.”

Tuesday’s outcome was one the president and his advisers have been anticipating and preparing for, even as Trump embarked on a month-long blitz of red states endeavoring to retain Republican congressional majorities but also demonstrate his singular status as the party’s head. The intensive campaigning left Trump, by his own admission, exhausted and ready for a break.

Still, the outcome was Trump’s worst-case scenario. And 10 years after first entering office, the prospect of being labeled a lame-duck is now driving him to consider new ways to assert his relevance, officials and advisers said, even as many in his party begin to envision a future without him as their leader.

In the immediate term, that could mean a swift renewal of the war against Iran, which Trump has strongly hinted he’s prepared to resume once the midterm season has ended. US and Iranian negotiators had been working unsuccessfully over the last several days to strike a new deal.

The president’s team has also spent months exploring ways to wield expansive executive authority to advance areas of his agenda that no longer appear likely to gain approval in Congress, including immigration and federal spending. Those close to the president say he’s ready to push the boundaries of his executive power to force through his goals.

No longer hampered by voters’ concerns he is spending too much time on foreign policy and his pet projects, Trump is expected to dive headlong into both, attending three major international summits over the coming weeks and dedicating more time to the various construction projects he has been pursuing in Washington, according to people familiar with the matter. The day after the election, Trump called an impromptu event to show off White House ballroom construction.

In the hours after both chambers were called for Democrats, the president did not seem prepared to accept responsibility for Republicans’ defeats. He has regularly pointed to historic precedent showing midterm losses for the sitting president’s party. Trump has also complained about certain candidates’ likability and inability to fundraise effectively — despite having chosen many of them.

He has griped privately at Republicans who questioned his approach of making the midterms about himself, blaming his past losses instead on candidate missteps or alleged fraud. He has rarely course corrected after past political setbacks.

Yet the prospect of a staffing shakeup has not been ruled out, and many administration officials have begun to look beyond the White House as they plot career moves, according to several Trump aides. His top political advisers have privately blamed Republicans’ shortfalls on the Iran war, and many believe Trump could be looking for a scapegoat.

Democrats have made clear they intend to use congressional majorities to issue subpoenas and hold hearings focused on the actions of the president and his allies. Trump warned on the campaign trail that he could be impeached again. Polls showed that voters’ corruption concerns surged ahead of the election.

“Lawyer up,” read a two-word statement from the incoming Democratic chairman of the House Oversight Committee Robert Garcia after his party won control of the chamber — and its subpoena power.

Administration lawyers have been expecting potential investigations for months. Yet as late as September, the extensive preparation that some in the West Wing had anticipated to ready the president and his senior advisers for potential Democratic probes wasn’t happening in earnest, Trump advisers told CNN, even as some officials have personally lawyered up.

White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, in particular, would often shut down conversations regarding a likely onslaught of oversight probes into those operating at the highest levels of the administration, one of the advisers said, believing it could pull focus away from the campaign.

“She would always say, ‘We are going to win and we’re going to put all our energy into winning,’” the adviser remarked of Wiles’ attitude in the months leading up to the midterm elections.

Other White House officials argued that Wiles had privately told the White House Counsel’s office to prepare for what Democrats may do, even as she told staff to “keep their eye on the prize” — as one of them characterized it.

“Quietly preparing for that scenario doesn’t mean deployment of that scenario,” one of the officials said.

The Counsel’s office has also hired an additional 15 lawyers in recent months dedicated to protecting the administration from future oversight probes.

“If crazed Democrats want to abuse their power and politicize the process of investigating and subpoenaing and try to destroy lives, they should be reminded that we still control the federal government and all of its powers,” a White House official said.

Still, some officials have hired their own attorneys or considered purchasing legal insurance to cover what many anticipate will be steep fees if they become embroiled in an investigation. After many staffers in the first administration were burned by exorbitant expenses during the January 6 investigation, other junior staffers have privately mulled if they should stay at their jobs, noting that they expect Democrats to cast a wide net.

There have also been conversations involving Trump and White House counsel Will Scharf, among others, over the wisdom of preemptive pardons for staffers. They have not decided whether to proceed, though Trump has not ruled it out.

Many in the West Wing believe the president is personally expecting the worst when it comes to Democratic investigations — having already experienced two impeachment trials during his first term.

“He went through this already once before, of course he expects the worst,” one source told CNN.

There have been moments in his private discussions with his most trusted allies when he acknowledged the magnitude of what a Democratic-controlled Congress could mean for his final two years in office, sources familiar with the discussions said.

“He remembers what it was like to have his family and his aides be dragged through the mud, let alone face two impeachments,” a White House official said.

Still, Trump insisted Wednesday that he’s “not even a little bit” concerned about the potential for another impeachment investigation.

“I think it would destroy the Democrat Party if they did that. Impeachment for no reason. What? For having a successful country?” Trump told reporters at the site of his White House ballroom.

White House officials are clear-eyed that divided government means any sweeping legislation Trump wants passed will be virtually impossible. But they’re also quick to remind the president that his agenda throughout his second term has largely been carried out via executive order without relying on Congress.

Advisers say that pattern will only intensify with Democrats in control of the House and Senate with ample majorities.

The president’s expansive use of his executive authority has been headed by deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller and budget chief Russell Vought. Both played major roles in planning some of the more controversial actions Trump took early in his term, such as immigration crackdowns and steep cuts to federal government programs.

Now, administration lawyers are looking at actions on immigration, federal spending and tariffs that could advance areas of the president’s agenda where congressional action appears unlikely. Possible measures include tightening rules on visas, applying new duties on imports and easing certain regulations.

A narrow Democratic majority in the Senate may not make a drastic difference in Trump’s legislative strategy. Filibuster rules require most major legislation to secure 60 votes. However, a notable exception is presidential nominations, including for federal judges — Democrats could block any potential nominee to the Supreme Court if a vacancy arises over the next two years, something multiple Republican officials expressed concern over.

Some Trump advisers believe Democrats, looking to demonstrate governing abilities, will seek out areas of compromise, at least in the narrow window before the 2028 presidential election cycle begins.

“I’m a person that likes getting things done, and there are things that we can work with,” Trump told Fox News on Tuesday night, only listing immigration as an area of potential compromise but not elaborating further.

Trump has promised he will veto any legislation sent by Democrats that butts up against his promises, and on Tuesday posted an image of a red hat with the word “VETO” in large white letters. Overriding a presidential veto requires two-thirds of the House and Senate.

“I guess I’ll become Mr. Veto,” Trump told the New York Post podcast before Election Day. “And then at some point, we’ll probably make deals.”

A freer hand on foreign policy

After spending much of the past two years focused intently on wars abroad, Trump sought to put the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine on the backburner during the midterm campaign. Efforts to end both definitively are now poised to ramp back up.

Many presidents in their final years turn to foreign policy, where their unilateral powers are greater and Congress has limited ability to restrict their actions. And it has the potential to burnish a presidential legacy.

For Trump, who openly pines for a Nobel Peace Prize, it has also proved frustrating. The war in Iran has stretched longer than anticipated, and Trump has privately vented that it badly damaged his party’s midterm chances.

Some Trump allies expect he will find someone to take the blame now that the campaign is over. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who has been a proponent of the war, is seen by some allies as potentially vulnerable. Democrats and even some Republicans have already suggested Hegseth will be a prime target for potential impeachment proceedings, among other probes. Meanwhile Trump, always one to crowdsource an opinion, has asked allies about their thoughts on Hegseth’s performance of late.

“The bottom line is that Trump feels misled (on the Iran war) — he was misled,” one Trump adviser told CNN. “And somebody should pay for that.”

Trump told Fox on Tuesday he was not considering a Cabinet shakeup, and another member of Trump’s circle said the president has made clear he believes Hegseth should fight back against potential impeachment proceedings. Trump has defended Hegseth and dismissed Democratic efforts to remove him, calling him a “great warrior.”

In 2006, then-President George W. Bush swiftly announced the departure of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld after Republicans suffered a drubbing in that year’s midterms, driven in part by the unpopular Iraq war.

It’s not clear whether Trump would shake up his team before a definitive end to the Iran conflict. For weeks, top advisers have been debating plans for new strikes on Iran, hoping to bring the eight-month conflict to a conclusive end. Not everyone on the president’s team believes imminent action would be productive, and some are pushing for more time to try striking a deal.

Either way, the Iran war has become a burden for a president who once promised not to get the country embroiled in a foreign conflict. Similarly, the Ukraine war — which Trump vowed to end within a day of taking office — has come to represent an unfulfilled promise.

Talks between Ukraine and Russia mediated by the United States will resume this week in the United Arab Emirates. And planning is underway for a trilateral meeting between Trump, Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping when the men convene in Shenzhen, China, later this month.

For more than a decade, Trump has steered the Republican Party with an iron grip, banishing dissent and shunning those who were disloyal. That era, even his allies admit, is nearing an end.

Reasserting his relevance amid this week’s results will be a challenge, some Republicans said. Where Trump was once viewed as the party leader few could challenge, his political capital has waned and many will now view him as an early lame duck.

Trump views it differently — and isn’t prepared to let go of his influential role as the party jockeys ahead of the 2028 primaries.

Unlike during the first year of his second term, when he would swiftly shut down any talk of his future successor, the president has been more readily willing to discuss his thoughts on 2028, his advisers said. One source close to Trump said the president is aware the second he anoints a successor, his lame-duck status will be cemented. Advisers said specific conversations around this topic would likely begin in in earnest in January.

“I don’t want to talk about individuals because it’s still a little bit too soon to do that,” Trump said Tuesday night. “We still have a long way to go, but I guess it’s going to be time now.”

During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump approached the selection of his running mate with that key question in mind: Who might be best to eventually replace him and carry on the MAGA torch? That argument was central in his decision to go with JD Vance.

But as he’s polled those around him over who should be the future GOP presidential nominee, Vance is not alone on the list. Secretary of State Marco Rubio often comes up as well.

Trump has told allies that he wants to see how the primary campaign plays out — especially in the beginning, sources familiar with the talks said. Trump advisers who support Rubio are hoping the president will make a decision sooner rather than later, noting while Rubio has name recognition they believe he will need a longer runway than Vance to get to know the American public.

As he was crisscrossing the country last month, Trump made little mention of what role he would play once he has left the White House. But he made clear he wasn’t planning to relinquish his authority.

“You know, we only have a little more than two years left. Can you believe it?” he told an adoring crowd in Sioux City, Iowa, who booed in disappointment.

But,” he went on, “I’m going to have a lot of power when I leave.”

This story has been updated with additional developments.