民调机构再次失准——但这次被低估的并非共和党人
资深民调专家表示，此次选举调查低估了民主党的得票率，有专家称这是一场“具有划时代意义的选举”
作者：保罗·斯坦豪瑟 | 福克斯新闻
发布时间：美国东部时间2026年11月4日下午1点26分
https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/PaulSteinhauser.jpg 民调专家分析中期选举结果及民主党取得的进展
民调专家贾斯汀·沃林做客《福克斯好友早间先报》，解读中期选举的重大结果，提及民主党掌控参众两院的情况。沃林剖析了关键竞选场次，其中包括詹姆斯·塔拉里科在得克萨斯州参议院对决中击败肯·帕克斯顿的结果。
【新】您现在可以收听福克斯新闻的文章了！
在选举日前的数周内，唐纳德·特朗普总统多次公开抨击民调，指责这些民调预示着民主党可能在中期选举中掀起“蓝色浪潮”。
“我觉得这些都是假民调，”总统坚称，“很多民调都是被操控的。”
其他共和党高层也反复提出类似论点。
“全国所有的民调都错了，”众议院议长迈克·约翰逊周日在爱荷华州的一场特朗普竞选集会上强调，“我告诉你们，他们正在低估共和党人的数量，因为共和党人不再参与这些民调了。”
点击此处查看福克斯新闻对中期选举的实时更新
https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/Mike-Johnson-Donald-Trump-Iowa-Nov.-1_-2026.jpg
美国路易斯安那州共和党籍众议院议长迈克·约翰逊发表讲话，唐纳德·特朗普总统在一旁聆听，2026年11月1日周日，爱荷华州迪比克市，五旗活动中心竞选集会现场。（查理·内贝加尔/美联社照片）
过去十年间，民调曾出现过低估共和党选民——尤其是特朗普运动（MAGA）支持者人数的情况，但此次民调机构指出，被低估的是民主党的支持率，而非共和党人的投票率。
被低估的是民主党人。
福克斯新闻民调长期合作的民主党搭档、资深民调专家克里斯·安德森表示：“总体来看，民调可能大幅低估了民主党人的支持率。”
安德森向福克斯新闻数字频道表示，此次中期选举中出现的大规模蓝色浪潮让民主党决定性地夺回了参众两院的多数席位，“这是一场具有划时代意义的选举，你无法用常规模型去模拟这样的选举。可以肯定的是，我们绝对没有低估共和党人。”
点击此处查看计票进行中最新中期选举结果
[image_3]
福克斯新闻民调的共和党搭档、资深共和党民调专家达伦·肖强调：“如果从民调的走向来看，它们显然是正确的。”
但肖补充道：“我们可能低估了民主党的得票率几个百分点。”
肖指出：“从走向来看，我们在选举日前就知道堪萨斯州的竞选势均力敌，也知道得克萨斯州可能在向蓝色阵营转变。这一点人们此前难以理解，但相关数据已经非常明确。我猜得克萨斯州的胜幅之大还是令人意外。”
萨福克大学政治研究中心主任、民调专家大卫·帕莱奥洛戈斯认为，民意调查普遍“略微低估了民主党人的支持率”。
查看福克斯新闻选举枢纽
[image_4]
他指出，2025年新泽西州和弗吉尼亚州的州长选举中，民调同样低估了民主党人的支持率，那两场选举中民主党候选人最终均以远超预期的两位数胜幅胜出。
点击此处下载福克斯新闻应用
“我们对胜选幅度的预判偏低，”帕莱奥洛戈斯告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，“我们所有人都低估了民主党人。”
对于共和党长期以来声称特朗普运动（MAGA）支持者被低估的说法，帕莱奥洛戈斯表示：“我认为公平地说，未来不能再是单方面的问题了。”
保罗·斯坦豪瑟为福克斯新闻报道来自全国各地的竞选动态
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6407895132112
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6407870646112
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6407910227112
Pollsters missed the mark again — but this time, it wasn’t Republicans they underestimated
Veteran pollsters say surveys underestimated Democratic vote share in what one called a ‘seismic election’
By Paul Steinhauser | Fox News
Published November 4, 2026 1:26pm EST
https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/PaulSteinhauser.jpg Pollster analyzes midterm election results and Democratic gains
Pollster Justin Wallin joins ‘Fox & Friends First’ to analyze the significant midterm election results as Democrats take control of the House and Senate. Wallin breaks down key races, including James Talarico defeating Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate showdown.
NEW You can now listen to Fox News articles!
In the weeks leading up to Election Day, President Donald Trump repeatedly railed against public opinion polls that pointed to a potential blue wave for the Democrats in the midterms.
“I think it’s fake polls,” the president argued. “A lot of the polls are rigged.”
It was an argument repeated by other top Republicans.
“The polls are all wrong all around the country,” House Speaker Mike Johnson emphasized Sunday at a Trump rally in Iowa. “I’m telling you, they’re undercounting Republicans because Republicans are not participating in these polls anymore.”
HEAD HERE FOR FOX NEWS LIVE UPDATES ON THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS
https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/Mike-Johnson-Donald-Trump-Iowa-Nov.-1_-2026.jpg
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., speaks as President Donald Trump listens during a campaign rally at the Five Flags Event Center, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, in Dubuque, Iowa.(Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo)
While public opinion polls have a history over the past decade of undercounting GOP voters — especially MAGA supporters — this time, pollsters say Democratic support, rather than Republican turnout, was underestimated.
It was Democrats.
“Polls probably, on average, undercounted Democrats significantly,” veteran pollster Chris Anderson, the longtime Democratic partner on the Fox News Poll, said.
Anderson, pointing to the massive blue wave that allowed Democrats to decisively recapture the House and Senate majorities in the midterms, told Fox News Digital, “This is sort of a seismic election and you can’t model for a seismic election. We definitely didn’t undercount Republicans, that’s for sure.”
CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST MIDTERM ELECTION RESULTS AS THE VOTES CONTINUE TO BE COUNTED
[image_3]
Daron Shaw, a veteran GOP pollster and the Republican partner on the Fox News Poll, emphasized, “If we’re talking about the direction of the polls, they were clearly correct.”
But Shaw added “we probably underestimated Democratic vote share by a couple of points.”
Shaw highlighted that “directionally, we knew heading into Election Day that Kansas was a dog fight. We knew that Texas was probably shifting blue. That was just something that people had trouble getting their heads around but the data were pretty clear on that. I guess on Texas, the magnitude was surprising.”
Pollster David Paleologos, the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, agreed that “in general” there was “a slight undercount” of Democrats in public opinion surveys.
CHECK OUT THE FOX NEWS ELECTION HUB
[image_4]
He noted that polls also undercounted Democrats in the 2025 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, where the Democratic candidates both won by larger-than-expected double-digit margins.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP
“We were low on the margins of victory,” Paleologos told Fox News Digital. “We were all undercounting Democrats.”
And pointing to the longstanding GOP case that MAGA voters are undercounted, Paleologos said, “I think to be fair going forward, it can’t be a one-sided question anymore.”
Paul Steinhauser covers the national campaign trail from coast to coast for Fox News
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6407895132112
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6407870646112
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6407910227112
发表回复