更新时间：美国东部时间2026年11月3日晚10:22 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
华盛顿讯 — 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻预测，民主党将赢得足够多的众议院席位，在明年年初重新掌控这一议会，这实际上将终止特朗普总统的立法议程，并为他白宫任期最后两年对其政府及商业利益的一系列调查铺平道路。
对生活成本的不满促使民主党夺回了众议院控制权，此前共和党以微弱多数掌控众议院长达四年，而这一多数曾将大量立法权限拱手让给特朗普政府。
随着多个竞争激烈的选区计票仍在进行，民主党多数席位的总规模尚不明朗。
接下来会发生什么
众议院民主党人计划在明年1月新一届国会获得传票权后展开激进调查。预计他们将调查总统及其家族的商业交易、政府的移民执法、杰弗里·爱泼斯坦丑闻、特朗普的特赦令，以及华盛顿各地的仓促建设项目。
这场调查攻势——预计将由分别负责监督和司法委员会的民主党首席议员、加利福尼亚州的罗伯特·加西亚众议员和马里兰州的杰米·拉斯金众议员牵头——意味着与政府在国会监督请求问题上的冲突几乎已成定局，这类冲突可能会闹到法庭上。
民主党还将掌握联邦财政支出的权力，可能会通过扣留特朗普政府重点项目的资金，来迫使官员出席听证会或遵守其他请求。
此外，还有一个问题是民主党是否会第三次弹劾特朗普。杰夫里斯一直坚称，“我们没有排除任何可能，也没有锁定任何选项”。不过特朗普已警告称，他料到民主党会弹劾他，但很少有人愿意推进这一程序。
杰夫里斯表示，民主党的议程将聚焦于可负担性。他已列出几项首要重点，包括废除作为特朗普“一个伟大而美丽的法案”一部分而实施的医疗补助削减、延长去年到期的平价医疗法案保费税收抵免、结束伊朗战争以及取消总统加征的关税。
中期选举历来对在任总统的政党不利。根据美国 presidency 项目的数据，自1934年以来，仅有三次在任总统所在政党在非总统选举年增加了众议院席位。
特朗普加剧了这些不利因素，因为他缺乏退出不受欢迎的伊朗战争的战略——这场战争已进入第九个月——并挑起了贸易冲突，而在许多美国人难以负担食品杂货和汽油的情况下，这些冲突推高了通胀。特朗普热衷于在白宫修建大型舞厅，以及在华盛顿开展其他翻新和建设项目，与选民对可负担性的担忧形成了鲜明对比。特朗普基本对生活成本问题置之不理，反而将高物价归咎于他的前任。
在竞选的最后几周，民主党将最终竞选信息集中在高生活成本上，并将华盛顿的腐败与物价上涨联系起来。哥伦比亚广播公司新闻最近的一项民意调查发现，多数选民认为如果共和党保持对国会的控制权，政府腐败会加剧，而这一问题是他们投票时考虑的因素之一。
共和党则将此次选举包装成“常识”与“疯狂”之间的选择，点出民主社会主义候选人的胜选。
在总统的敦促下，得克萨斯州和佛罗里达州等多个州的共和党人重新划分了众议院选区，以创造更多有利于本党的席位，从而保住对下议院的控制权。不过，七个州新增的15个席位对保住多数党地位的影响微乎其微。民主党也针锋相对，重新划分了加利福尼亚州的国会选区，使得五个席位对共和党不再有利。
众议院议长迈克·约翰逊领导下的这一下议院任期充满了共和党内部的矛盾，而总统不断变化的要求让情况更加复杂。这位路易斯安那州的共和党人开玩笑说，他更像是一名心理医生而非众议院议长，因为他要管理一个陷入分裂的多数党。但约翰逊也必须依靠特朗普才能让持异议者支持重要投票。共和党的微弱多数意味着，有时仅一两名共和党人就有权阻挠本党议程，直到他们的要求得到满足，或者少数共和党人可以联合所有民主党人，提出被共和党领袖忽视的立法。
第119届国会的政党席位分布——目前为218名共和党人、214名民主党人、1名独立人士和两个空缺席位——在过去两年中发生了变化，因为特朗普招募了成员进入他的政府，并且出现了因 misconduct 指控导致的数人死亡、提前退休和辞职情况。
在一系列政治敏感问题上的反抗，包括与爱泼斯坦相关材料的发布、限制特朗普在伊朗问题上的行动，以及投票弹劾国防部长皮特·赫格塞思，与约翰逊提前数日、有时数周安排议员休会相吻合。
杰夫里斯可能会面临类似的局面，包括少数民主社会主义者——其中一些人在初选中击败了长期在职的议员——以及代表特朗普在2024年赢得的选区的民主党人。
杰夫里斯团结其党团的能力在9月份接受了考验，当时两名温和派民主党人——寻求连任的华盛顿州众议员玛丽·格卢森坎普·佩雷斯，以及即将退休的缅因州众议员贾里德·戈尔登——脱离本党，帮助共和党人艰难通过了一项按党派路线进行的程序投票。为自己的脱党行为辩护时，佩雷斯和戈尔登表示，基础立法——对俄罗斯制裁和缅因州龙虾渔民保护——太重要了，不能推迟通过。
民主社会主义党团的几名成员尚未承诺支持杰夫里斯担任众议院议长。
将于明年1月代表科罗拉多州就职的新任众议员梅拉特·基罗斯告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，她与杰夫里斯进行了“愉快的交谈”。但当被问及是否会支持他担任议长时，她拒绝给出明确答复。
“我会支持任何确保议程符合美国人民优先事项的人，”她说道。
宾夕法尼亚州新任众议员克里斯·拉布也拒绝透露杰夫里斯是否得到了他的支持。
“我不知道谁参选，我会见任何想争取我选票的人。但除非那次会面发生，否则都只是猜测，”他告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻。
Democrats retake House majority after 4 years
Updated on: November 3, 2026 / 10:22 PM EST / CBS News
Washington — Democrats will capture enough House seats to retake control of the chamber early next year, CBS News projects, effectively halting President Trump’s legislative agenda and teeing up a wave of investigations into his administration and business ventures during his final two years in the White House.
Economic discontent over the cost of living helped Democrats flip control of the House after four years of a razor-thin Republican majority that ceded large parts of its legislative authority to the Trump administration.
The total extent of Democrats’ majority is unclear as votes in severalcompetitive races continue to be counted.
What comes next
House Democrats are planning aggressive investigations when they secure subpoena power in the new Congress in January. They are expected to probe the president and his family’s business dealings, the administration’s immigration enforcement, the Jeffrey Epstein scandal, Mr. Trump’s pardons and the rushed construction projects throughout the nation’s capital.
The investigative blitz — expected to be spearheaded by Reps. Robert Garcia of California and Jamie Raskin of Maryland, the top Democrats on the Oversight and Judiciary Committees, respectively — sets up an all but certain clash with the administration over congressional oversight requests that could land in court.
Democrats, who will also have authority over federal spending, could withhold funding from the Trump administration’s priorities to pressure officials to appear for testimony or comply with other requests.
There’s also the question of whether Democrats will try to impeach Mr. Trump for a third time. Jeffries has maintained that “we haven’t ruled anything out” or “ruled anything in.” Though Mr. Trump has warned that he’s expecting Democrats to impeach him, few are eager to go through the process.
Jeffries has said the Democratic agenda will focus on affordability. He’s laid out a handful of their immediate priorities, including reversing cuts to Medicaid that were enacted as part of Mr. Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, extending the Affordable Care Act premium tax credits that expired last year, ending the Iran war and rolling back the president’s tariffs.
Midterm elections are historically rough for the sitting president’s party. Since 1934, there have been just three instances in which the sitting president’s party has gained House seats in non-presidential election years, according to the American Presidency Project.
Mr. Trump fanned the headwinds by lacking a strategy to exit the unpopular war with Iran that has stretched into its ninth month and initiating trade conflicts that have accelerated inflation as many Americans struggle to afford groceries and gas. Mr. Trump’s fixation on building a massive ballroom at the White House, along with other remodeling and construction projects in Washington, offered a stark split screen with voters’ affordability concerns. Mr. Trump largely dismissed cost-of-living concerns, while blaming his predecessor for high prices.
In the final weeks of the campaign, Democrats focused their closing message on the high cost of living and linked corruption in Washington to rising prices. A recentCBS News poll found most voters thought there would be more government corruption if Republicans maintained control of Congress and the issue was a factor in their votes.
Republicans framed the election as a choice between “common sense” and “crazy,” pointing to the wins of democratic socialist candidates.
At the president’s urging, Republicans in several states, including Texas and Florida, reshuffled the House map to create more seats favorable to their party in order to retain control of the lower chamber. But the 15 additional seats in seven states had minimal impact on saving their majority. Democrats also countered the move by redrawing congressional districts in California, which made five seats less favorable to Republicans.
House Speaker Mike Johnson’s tenure leading the lower chamber has been fraught with GOP infighting that was made more complicated by the president’s shifting demands. The Louisiana Republican joked that he was more of a therapist than House speaker as he managed a fractured majority. But Johnson also had to lean on Mr. Trump to get holdouts on board for important votes. The GOP’s narrow majority meant that, at times, just one or two Republicans had the power to derail the party’s agenda until their demands were met, or that a few Republicans could team up with all Democrats to bring legislation to the floor that had been ignored by GOP leaders.
The party breakdown for the 119th Congress — currently 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent and two vacancies — has shifted over the last two years as Mr. Trump poached members for his administration and there were several deaths, early retirements and resignations over misconduct allegations.
The defiance on a number of politically sensitive issues ranging from the release of materials related to Epstein, reining in Mr. Trump on Iran and a vote to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has coincided with Johnson sending members on recess days, sometimes weeks, early.
Jeffries could face a similar dynamic with a handful of democratic socialists, some of whom ousted longtime incumbents in the primaries, and Democrats who represent districts that Mr. Trump won in 2024.
Jeffries’ ability to keep his caucus united was tested in September when two moderate Democrats — Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington, who is running for reelection, and retiring Rep. Jared Golden of Maine — split from their party to help Republicans who were struggling to pass a party-line procedural vote. In defense of their defections, Perez and Golden said the underlying legislation — Russia sanctions and protections for Maine’s lobstermen — were too important to postpone their passage.
Several members of the democratic socialist bloc have not committed to supporting Jeffries for House speaker.
Rep.-elect Melat Kiros, who will represent Colorado come January, told CBS News she’s had “wonderful conversations” with Jeffries. But when asked whether she would support him for speaker, she declined to give a definitive answer.
“I’m going to support anybody who ensures that the agenda is in line with the priorities of the American people,” she said.
Rep.-elect Chris Rabb of Pennsylvania also declined to say whether Jeffries had his backing.
“I don’t know who’s running, and I’ll sit down with anybody who wants to earn my vote. But unless and until that meeting happens, it’s speculation,” he told CBS News.
发表回复