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The battle for Congress is just the beginning. Here’s what’s at stake on Election Day

Republicans defend slim majorities as early voting shatters records with more than 54 million ballots already cast

By Paul Steinhauser | Fox News

Published November 3, 2026 4:00am EST

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Fox News Power Rankings reveal major shifts ahead of midterms

‘Fox & Friends Weekend’ co-host Griff Jenkins breaks down the latest Power Rankings ahead of the midterms, highlighting shifts in Kansas and Nebraska, seven toss-up Senate races and the battle for control of Congress.

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It’s Election Day in America, with voters heading to the polls to determine control of the U.S. House and Senate for the next two years.

Republicans are defending their slim congressional majorities, but President Donald Trump predicts the GOP will hold the House and Senate for the final two years of his presidency.

“We’re going to win and let’s make the next two years bigger and better and stronger than ever before,” Trump told supporters Sunday night at a rally in Kansas.

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But Republicans are fighting political history, as the party in power in Washington has traditionally lost seats during midterm election years. The GOP also faces a challenging political climate fueled by persistent inflation tied in part to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran and Trump’s increasingly negative approval ratings.

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President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at the Salina Regional Airport, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, in Salina, Kansas.(Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo)

The GOP is also facing a potential turnout deficit, with public opinion polls indicating Democrats are more energized than Republicans to cast ballots in the midterms.

Early voting in the midterms has shattered previous records, with more than 54 million people already casting ballots, according to The Associated Press. That’s nearly 9 million more ballots cast in early voting than in 2022, the previous midterm elections.

With early voting traditionally favoring Democrats, Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters, pointing to Election Day turnout, recently told Fox News Digital, “If our voters turn out, we win.”

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A voter fills out their ballot at a polling location inside Wayne Community College Eastern Campus on the final day of early voting for the midterm election in Detroit, Michigan, on Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026.(Emily Elconin/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The political climate has the GOP playing plenty of defense on the campaign trail, as the president tries to energize the GOP base.

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Trump’s event in red-leaning Kansas, which he touted as his 30th rally over the past month, came hours after the Fox News Power Rankings shifted the state’s Senate race from Lean Republican to Toss-up. Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton, who is challenging GOP Sen. Roger Marshall, is aiming to become the first Democrat in nearly a century to win a Senate election in Kansas.

The Fox News Power Rankings, as well as many of the leading nonpartisan political handicappers, point to Democrats retaking control of the House, with the majority in the Senate a toss-up heading into Election Day.

“Think of what is possible tomorrow: Democrats can flip the House, take back the Senate, and stop Trump’s harmful agenda,” Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin spotlighted in an Election Eve social media post.

Also up for grabs in this year’s elections — governorships in 36 of the 50 states. Plus, all but four states are holding legislative elections. And voters will also weigh in on 145 statewide ballot measures in states from coast to coast.

The big question with Election Day upon us — have the public opinion polls that point to a potential blue wave undercounted Republican voters?

LEAVITT SAYS TRUMP DEFYING MIDTERM HEADWINDS AS HE BARNSTORMS COUNTRY

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The Election Day sign outside town hall in Newfields, New Hampshire, ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.(Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)

We’ll find out in the coming hours.

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Until then, here’s a closer look at what’s up for grabs on Election Day 2026.

SENATE

Republicans currently control the chamber 53-47, which means Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win back the majority. The GOP needs to hold at least 50 seats to retain control of the chamber, since Republican Vice President JD Vance is the tie-breaking vote in the Senate.

Besides Kansas, Republicans are also playing defense in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas, which are all rated toss-ups in the Power Rankings. They’re also defending seats in competitive races in Kansas, which is rated Lean Republican, and Ohio, which is rated Lean Democrat.

Democrats are on defense in Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire.

HOUSE

The GOP is hanging on to a razor-thin majority in the House, with Democrats needing a net gain of just three seats to reach 218, which would hand them the majority.

A good night for the Democrats could see them ending up with as many as 240 seats in the 435-seat chamber, according to the Power Rankings. But if Republicans have a good night, they could end up with 212 seats. That’s six short of a majority, but enough to make life difficult for the next Democratic House speaker, who would have to balance the demands of the moderate and far-left wings of the party.

The earliest-closing district polls on election night will give some sense of the House’s future.

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“Keep an eye on Kentucky’s 6th District, which covers Lexington and a large central area of the state. Trump won here by 15 points in the last presidential election. Thanks to a combination of left-leaning college voters and farmers grappling with higher costs, it looks close this cycle,” Remy Numa, a Fox News contributor who steers the network’s Power Rankings, said.

GOVERNORS

There are currently 26 Republican and 24 Democratic governors.

The Power Rankings list three states where the GOP controls the governor’s office – Alaska, Nevada and Georgia – as toss-ups. Wisconsin, which has an open Democratic-controlled governor’s office, is also rated a toss-up.

The gubernatorial races in red states Florida, Kansas and Texas are rated Lean Republican, according to the Power Rankings. Meanwhile, the showdowns in Arizona, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Oregon are rated Lean Democrat.

BALLOT MEASURES

Referendums requiring voters to present identification when they show up at the polls, or bans on noncitizen voting, are on the ballot in 11 states: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Kansas, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, South Dakota and West Virginia.

Voters in Alaska will also decide if they want to repeal the state’s ranked choice voting system, open primaries and a campaign finance disclosure rule. Voters approved the current system in 2020 and narrowly kept it in 2024.

But the voting system has come under fresh scrutiny amid the controversy over a potential spoiler candidate in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race.

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Voters in Virginia will decide whether the right to vote should be restored to convicted felons upon their release.

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Roughly a dozen states are holding ballot measures on Election Day that are related to voting.(Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)

California’s Proposition 40 is making national headlines.

The measure, the first of its kind, would slap a one-time 5% tax on wealth for Californians worth over $1 billion, with the vast majority of the revenue generated going to pay for healthcare.

Also in the spotlight is a millionaires’ tax in Washington state. If passed, the referendum would repeal a 9.9% tax on income over $1 million a year, which state lawmakers recently approved. Washington state currently does not have a personal income tax.

Voters in Maryland, Missouri and Colorado weigh in on ballot measures on congressional redistricting, as the mid-decade redistricting fight between Democrats and Republicans will be waged again in 2028.

Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska and Washington state have referendums on transgender students’ participation in sports. Colorado also has a referendum on blocking gender transition surgeries for minors and preventing state or federal funding from being used for those operations.

Voters in Missouri weigh in on repealing a right to abortion and banning gender transition medical care for children. Meanwhile, an Idaho initiative would overturn one of the nation’s strictest abortion bans, while Virginia and Nevada voters decide on establishing a right to abortion in their state constitutions.

California, Colorado and Arizona hold ballot measures on policy around energy, transportation and development.

POLL CLOSINGS

The first poll closings come at 6 p.m. ET, with the final poll closings happening at 1 a.m. ET.

6 p.m. ET: Polls close in parts of Kentucky and Indiana.

7 p.m. ET: Polls close in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. The final polls in Kentucky and Indiana close. And most polls in Florida and New Hampshire close.

7:30 p.m. ET: Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.

8 p.m. ET: Polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee and Washington, D.C. The remaining polls in Florida and New Hampshire close. Most polls close in Texas, Michigan, Kansas, North Dakota and South Dakota.

8:30 p.m. ET: Polls close in Arkansas.

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9 p.m. ET: Polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin and Wyoming. The final polls close in Texas, Michigan, Kansas, North Dakota and South Dakota.

10 p.m. ET: Polls close in Montana and Utah. Most polls also close in Idaho and Oregon.

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11 p.m. ET: Polls close in California and Washington state, with the remaining polls in Idaho and Oregon also closing.

Midnight ET: Polls in all of Hawaii and most of Alaska close, with the remaining polls in Alaska closing at 1 a.m. ET.

Paul Steinhauser covers the national campaign trail from coast to coast for Fox News

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6407753243112