2026-11-01T08:30:02-05:00 / 福克斯新闻
更新于11月1日：
我们正调整本轮预测，将堪萨斯州从共和党倾向（Lean R）调整为摇摆州，将内布拉斯加州从可靠共和党（Likely R）调整为共和党倾向（Lean R）。
堪萨斯州曾是保守派大本营，但共和党在该州的竞选投入（时间与资金）远超其他州，由此可知罗杰·马歇尔参议员并不占据对民主党对手亚当·汉密尔顿的优势。
内布拉斯加州的共和党参议员皮特·里基茨仍占据有利态势。若共和党遭遇超出预期的摇摆，独立候选人丹·奥斯本或能实现冷门逆袭。
我们仍将参议院控制权视为摇摆状态。
共有七个州可能决定多数党归属。若民主党表现出色，其席位上限可升至55席；若共和党表现亮眼，则可能保住控制权，最高可获得52席。
特朗普支持的参议员承认共和党在该州面临90年未遇的噩梦局面
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伊朗局势日益严峻，共和党能稳住核心选民吗？
本届中期选举似乎有两类选民群体。
舍恩与库珀曼：民主党或借中期选举浪潮崛起，这些数据足以让共和党心惊
第一类选民对唐纳德·特朗普总统不满，倾向于拒绝共和党。其中包括越来越多的独立人士、农村选民和西班牙裔选民，他们表示将投票给民主党。
这一趋势在最新一轮众议院民调中有所体现，包括上周民主党在通用选票中领先11个百分点的调查，以及福克斯新闻最新的全国民调。
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福克斯新闻参议院预测实力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
第二类选民对共和党持观望态度，但未必会拱手将参议院让给民主党。这些选民主要分布在中西部及其他部分地区，他们表示对本州民主党或共和党候选人的支持率仅相差1个或2个百分点。
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福克斯新闻选举关键议题实力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
这是多数争夺参议院席位的摇摆州民调得出的正确结论。
这两种情况如何同时成立？换言之，如果民主党在众议院的领先优势如此之大，参议院的结果不也会对民主党有利吗？
两种情况均成立，且众议院的巨大领先优势未必能延伸至参议院。这些选民属于同一群体，他们看似相互脱节，只是因为今年的众议院和参议院选区划分差异过大。
福克斯新闻实力排名：民主党可能在哪些方面出错？
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福克斯新闻参议院预测实力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
总统支持率下降，且民主党在关键议题上占据优势，这很可能帮助民主党拿下众议院，且可能席位优势明显。
这些优势也让民主党得以参与许多共和党原本认为无望的参议院竞选，不过仅达到将这些竞争州变为摇摆州的程度。
中期选举前关键竞选形势收紧，共和党参议院多数党地位面临新的不确定性
通往参议院多数党控制权的道路要经过几个特朗普以11个百分点以上优势胜出的州。民主党在这些州的任何一场竞选中都有获胜可能。如果共和党选民踊跃投票并忠于本党，民主党要逆转局势难度极大。
这就是为什么参议院仍处于摇摆状态。选民可能让民主党获得多数席位，甚至可能多出几个；也可能让共和党保住控制权。
我们下周就能揭晓结果。
民主党在多数关键议题上占据显著优势
唐纳德·特朗普总统在其11年政治生涯中，几乎挫败了所有威胁其权力的挑战。唯一的例外是新冠疫情，该议题是2020年大选选民关注的首要问题，最终促成拜登就任总统。
这也是特朗普面临的为数不多的境外威胁之一。
这一次，特朗普和共和党面临一个新的境外对手：伊朗。美国政府在2月启动美以联合军事打击伊朗的决定，给共和党蒙上了一层阴影。
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福克斯新闻特朗普支持率实力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
首先，这一事件影响了特朗普的支持率，而特朗普的支持率将决定许多共和党国会议员的命运，且自战争爆发以来支持率已有所下降。战前的最新民调显示其支持率为44%，目前为36%。
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福克斯新闻选举前核心关切议题实力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
战争也让民主党在核心议题上占据优势。在福克斯新闻10月的民调中，伊朗问题对四个核心议题产生了影响，超过三分之二的选民表示担忧：通货膨胀（85%）、汽油价格（83%）、政府领导力（79%）以及伊朗战争本身（75%）。
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福克斯新闻政党处理议题能力实力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
多数选民表示，他们更倾向于民主党处理这些议题：通货膨胀方面领先16个百分点，汽油价格方面领先12个百分点，领导力方面领先11个百分点，外交政策方面领先9个百分点。
共和党在传统根据地仍具竞争力
不过，选民并不认为参议院控制权需要易主。
这取决于选区情况。特朗普在2024年赢得了11个摇摆州中的7个，且其中7个州的优势为两位数，包括阿拉斯加、爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、内布拉斯加州、俄亥俄州、南卡罗来纳州和德克萨斯州。
民主党不需要赢得所有这些州就能掌控参议院，但如果不能至少拿下其中两个州，就很难达到51席的多数门槛。
尽管前民主党参议员谢罗德·布朗在俄亥俄州处于领先地位，但其他州的竞争仍很胶着。投票率、任何一方的民调误差，或两者兼而有之，都将决定竞选结果。
此外，还有大量未决定的选民。在阿拉斯加、爱荷华州和堪萨斯州这三个近期民调质量较高的州，平均有10%的选民表示尚未决定支持或反对主要候选人。
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福克斯新闻参议院预测实力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
这些选民在投票时会如何选择只能是猜测。我们从过往结果中仅能得知，整体选民倾向保守，因此民主党需要更努力争取这些选民支持（或确保他们不投票）。
德克萨斯州的未决定选民数量少得多，上周福克斯新闻民调显示该州竞选结果为49%对49%平局。
如果民主党仅拿下特朗普获胜的两个摇摆州，他们还需要在另外三个州获胜，这三个州在2024年大选中原副总统哈里斯的优势为个位数：缅因州、明尼苏达州和新罕布什尔州。
民主党在后两个州占据领先优势。缅因州的结果则难分伯仲。虽然民主党在该州的总统选举中获胜，但如果苏珊·柯林斯参选，缅因州也可能被视为共和党阵营的州。
参议院：民主党在48个州占据优势；堪萨斯州转为摇摆州，内布拉斯加州转为共和党倾向
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福克斯新闻参议院预测实力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
根据本次预测，两党均未达到多数党席位。民主党在48个州占据优势，共和党在45个州领先。
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福克斯新闻参议院预测实力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
若民主党表现出色，该党将赢得多数或所有摇摆州席位，最终获得多达55席的多数。在这种情况下，包括内布拉斯加州、密西西比州在内的其他竞争州也将成为关注焦点。
若共和党表现出色，该党仅需保住多数已获得的州，最高可达到52席。共和党也有机会拿下少数州，包括明尼苏达州和新罕布什尔州。
本周有五个州在实力排名预测中发生变动。
俄亥俄州
俄亥俄州的布朗在今年的三次福克斯新闻民调中均保持领先，其中上周的民调显示他以52%比47%领先共和党现任参议员乔恩·赫斯特德5个百分点。
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福克斯新闻参议院预测实力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
俄亥俄州选民对布朗非常熟悉，此前已三次推选他进入参议院。这让赫斯特德很难在竞选活动中攻击社会主义和政治正确等议题——而这些是共和党在其他地区的核心竞选武器。
俄亥俄州从摇摆州转为民主党倾向（Lean D）。
（“民主党倾向”意味着民主党候选人占据优势，但竞选仍具竞争力。我们在福克斯新闻网定义了所有排名及其设定流程。）
南卡罗来纳州
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福克斯新闻参议院预测实力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
正如本周实力排名此前报道，共和党原本就认为该州竞选竞争异常激烈。这一观点已获得广泛认同。
总统曾前往该州的上半岛地区支持参议员达琳·格雷厄姆，而她在党内初选中对众议员拉尔夫·诺曼的表现不佳。
南卡罗来纳州从共和党倾向（Lean R）转为摇摆州。
堪萨斯州
堪萨斯州是保守派大本营，但共和党在该州的竞选投入（时间与资金）远超其他州，由此可知罗杰·马歇尔参议员并不占据对民主党对手亚当·汉密尔顿的优势。
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福克斯新闻参议院预测实力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
堪萨斯州从共和党倾向（Lean R）转为摇摆州。
内布拉斯加州
内布拉斯加州的共和党参议员皮特·里基茨仍占据有利态势。若共和党遭遇超出预期的摇摆，独立候选人丹·奥斯本或能实现冷门逆袭。
内布拉斯加州从可靠共和党（Likely R）转为共和党倾向（Lean R）。
密西西比州
密西西比州是共和党的大本营，但特朗普选择在该州举办集会而非其他深红州，这表明共和党认为竞选存在竞争力。
共和党参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯的对手是民主党地区检察官斯科特·科洛姆，这场竞选中“蛋白质选择”成为关键议题。
密西西比州从可靠共和党（Solid R）转为可靠共和党（Likely R）。
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福克斯新闻参议院预测实力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
众议院：民主党席位下限提升4席至223席
民主党仍可能在11月的选举中掌控众议院，根据本次预测，他们至少能拿下223席。
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福克斯新闻众议院预测实力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
若民主党表现出色，他们将赢得多数摇摆选区，最终可获得多达240席。
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福克斯新闻众议院预测实力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
（若民主党获得压倒性胜利，该党还将拿下多数共和党倾向选区，总席位最高可达252席。）
共和党目前拥有195席。若共和党表现出色，总席位可增至约212席。虽距多数还差6席，但足以给下任民主党众议院议长制造困难，议长需要平衡党内温和派与极左翼派系的诉求。
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福克斯新闻众议院预测实力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
本周有19个选区的支持倾向转向民主党，所有变化均基于上次众议院更新中提到的相同因素：全国及选区民调、顶端候选人的竞争力以及农村选民流失。
选举当晚最早计票的选区将反映众议院的未来走向。请关注肯塔基州第6选区，该选区涵盖列克星敦及州内中部大片区域。在上次总统选举中，特朗普以15个百分点的优势赢下该选区。但由于倾向自由派的大学生选民和面临高成本压力的农民群体，本次竞选看起来竞争激烈。该选区从共和党倾向（Lean R）转为摇摆州。
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福克斯新闻众议院预测实力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
州长选举：无论广告内容如何，俄亥俄州州长竞选转为民主党倾向
最后，俄亥俄州州长竞选也发生了变动。上周，民主党候选人艾米·阿克顿与共和党对手维韦克·拉马斯瓦米的竞选成为政治头条，原因是拉马斯瓦米发布了一则广告，内容是阿克顿的母亲称女儿撒谎。
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福克斯新闻州长选举预测实力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
阿克顿自12岁起就与母亲关系疏远，她表示当时自己和兄弟离开家庭，原因是母亲的丈夫对她实施了性侵。阿克顿的兄弟现在出现在回应广告中，讲述他们的家庭历史。
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福克斯新闻州长选举预测实力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
此次评级变动的原因并非对广告的反应（拉马斯瓦米和特朗普支持该广告，赫斯特德和州长迈克·德瓦恩等多数人反对），而是因为拉马斯瓦米团队认为有必要发布这则广告。
上周福克斯新闻民调显示，拉马斯瓦米仅落后阿克顿2个百分点，但自9月以来的其他高质量民调中，他平均落后7个百分点。
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福克斯新闻州长选举预测实力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
这位商人兼前总统候选人在整个政治生涯中支持率一直不理想，这则广告很难起到帮助作用。
俄亥俄州州长竞选从摇摆州转为民主党倾向（Lean D）。
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福克斯新闻关于2026年中期选举的特别报道将于美国东部时间下周二11月3日晚6点开始，由布雷特·拜尔和玛莎·麦卡勒姆主持。欢迎收看福克斯新闻决策室的最新竞选结果和众议院与参议院控制权的预测。
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Fox News Power Rankings: Kansas moves to Toss-up, Nebraska moves to Lean R
2026-11-01T08:30:02-05:00 / Fox News
Updated Nov. 1:
We’re updating this forecast to move Kansas from Lean R to Toss-up, and Nebraska from Likely R to Lean R.
Kansas is a conservative stronghold, but Republicans are spending too much time and money relative to other states to conclude that Sen. Roger Marshall has an edge over Democrat Adam Hamilton.
The odds remain in Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts’ favor in Nebraska. A larger-than-expected swing against the GOP could open the door for independent Dan Osborn to pull off an upset.
We still consider Senate control a toss-up.
Seven states are most likely to decide the majority. On a good night for the Democrats, their ceiling rises to 55 seats. A good night for the Republicans could see them retain control with up to 52 seats.
TRUMP-BACKED SENATOR ADMITS GOP FACES NIGHTMARE SCENARIO IN STATE REPUBLICANS HAVEN’T LOST IN 90 YEARS
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As Iran looms large, can the GOP keep the faithful?
It seems like there are two electorates in these midterms.
SCHOEN, COOPERMAN: DEMOCRATS COULD BE RIDING A MIDTERM WAVE. THESE NUMBERS SHOULD TERRIFY THE GOP
The first is frustrated with President Donald Trump and ready to reject Republicans. It includes growing numbers of independent, rural, and Hispanic voters who say they’ll vote for a Democrat.
That’s what the latest round of House polling shows, including a survey last week that had Democrats up 11 points on the generic ballot, and Fox’s most recent national poll.
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Fox News Power Rankings on Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
The second electorate is wavering on Republicans but won’t necessarily hand Democrats the Senate. These are the voters in the Midwest and a few other places. They say they prefer the Democrat or Republican in their states by a point or two at most.
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Fox News Power Rankings on key issues in the election.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
That’s the right conclusion from most of the battleground Senate polling.
How could both things be true? In other words, if Democrats have such a wide lead in the House, won’t the Senate fall too?
Both are true, and a big lead in the House doesn’t necessarily translate to the Senate. These voters are all in the same electorate, and they only seem divorced from each other because the House and Senate maps are so far apart this year.
FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: FOR THE DEMOCRATS, WHERE COULD IT POSSIBLY GO WRONG?
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Fox News Power Rankings on Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
The president’s declining approval rating and Democratic advantages on the issues will likely deliver them the House, and possibly by many seats.
Those advantages have also allowed the blue team to play in a lot of Senate races that Republicans thought were unreachable, but only to the point of making them battlegrounds.
GOP SENATE MAJORITY FACES FRESH UNCERTAINTY AS 2 KEY RACES TIGHTEN DAYS BEFORE MIDTERMS
The road to a Senate majority goes through several states that Trump won by 11 points or more. Democrats can win any of these races. If Republicans turn out and stay loyal to their party, the climb for the left will be steep.
That’s why the Senate is a toss-up. Voters could give Democrats a majority, and maybe with several seats to spare. They could also let the Republicans keep control.
We’ll find out next week.
Democrats have strong advantages on most key issues
In his 11-year political career, President Donald Trump has triumphed over almost all of the threats to his power. The exception was the coronavirus pandemic, which was the top issue for voters in the 2020 election and ushered in the Biden presidency.
It was also one of the few threats that Trump has faced from abroad.
This time, Trump and the Republicans face a new foreign opponent: Iran. The administration’s decision to start joint U.S.-Israeli military strikes against the nation in February has cast a shadow over the GOP.
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Fox News Power Rankings on Trump.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
First, it has impacted Trump’s approval rating, which will decide the fate of many congressional Republicans and has fallen since the war began. It was 44% in the last pre-war survey and sits at 36% now.
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Fox News Power Rankings on top issues leading up to elections.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
The war has also given Democrats advantages on the top issues. In Fox’s October survey, Iran played a role in four issues that more than two-thirds of voters said they were concerned about: inflation (85%), gas prices (83%), government leadership (79%), and the war in Iran itself (75%).
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Fox News Power Rankings on political parties.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Most voters said they preferred the Democrats to handle those issues: 16 points on inflation, 12 points on gas prices, 11 points on leadership, and 9 points on foreign policy.
Republicans are competitive on home turf
Still, voters are not convinced that the Senate should change hands.
That comes down to the territory. Trump won seven of the 11 battleground states in 2024, and seven of them by double digits. That includes Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas.
Democrats don’t need to win all of those states to take the Senate, but it’s hard to see how they get to 51 seats without at least two of them.
While former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leads in Ohio, the other states are close. Turnout, a polling error in either direction, or both could decide them.
There’s also a lot of undecided vote. In Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, three states with recent high-quality polling, an average of 10% of voters say they haven’t decided who they will support or won’t support the major candidates.
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Fox News Power Rankings on Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Any guess on how those voters will break at the ballot box is only a guess. All we know from prior results is that the overall electorate leans conservative, so the Democrats have the tougher assignment to bring them over to their side (or keep them at home).
There are far fewer undecided voters in Texas, where last week’s Fox News Poll showed a tied race at 49%-49%.
If Democrats only win two Trump-won battlegrounds, they’ll need to win three other races where former Vice President Harris delivered single-digit victories in 2024: Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.
Democrats are ahead in the latter two. Maine could go either way. While Democrats win its presidential races, it could just as easily be considered a Republican state when Susan Collins is on the ballot.
Senate: Democrats are favored in 48 seats; Kansas moves to Toss-up and Nebraska moves to Lean R
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Fox News Power Rankings on Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Both parties are short of a majority in this forecast. Democrats are favored in 48 seats and Republicans are ahead in 45.
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Fox News Power Rankings on Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
On a good night for Democrats, the party would win most or all the toss-ups, taking the majority with up to 55 seats. In that scenario, other competitive states would also come into focus, including Nebraska, and possibly Mississippi.
A good night for the Republicans would see them simply hold on to most of the states they already have, up to a ceiling of 52 seats. The party also has opportunities to flip a couple of states, including Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Five states have moved in Power Rankings forecasts this week.
Ohio
In Ohio, Brown has enjoyed a lead in three Fox News polls this year, including last week’s survey, which had him five points ahead of Republican incumbent Sen. Jon Husted at 52%-47%.
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Fox News Power Rankings on Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Ohio voters are very familiar with Brown, having sent him to the Senate three times. That has made it hard for Husted to campaign on socialism and woke politics, themes that Republicans elsewhere see as their strongest cards to play.
Ohio moves from Toss-up to Lean D.
(“Lean D” means the Democrat has an edge but it’s still a highly competitive race. We define every ranking and the process for setting them on FoxNews.com.)
South Carolina
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Fox News Power Rankings on Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
As this week’s Power Rankings previously reported, Republicans already viewed this as an uncomfortably close race. That belief is now widely shared.
The president headed back there to help Sen. Darline Graham in the Upstate, where she underperformed in her primary runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman.
South Carolina moves from Lean R to Toss-up.
Kansas
Kansas is a conservative stronghold, but Republicans are spending too much time and money relative to other states to conclude that Sen. Roger Marshall has an edge over Democrat Adam Hamilton.
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Fox News Power Rankings on Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Kansas moves from Lean R to Toss-up.
Nebraska
The odds remain in Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts’ favor in Nebraska. A larger-than-expected swing against the GOP could open the door for independent Dan Osborn to pull off an upset.
Nebraska moves from Likely R to Lean R.
Mississippi
Mississippi is a Republican stronghold, but Trump’s decision to rally there over other deep red states is a sign that the party thinks it’s competitive.
GOP Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith faces Democratic District Attorney Scott Colom in a race where protein choice has become a breakout issue.
Mississippi moves from Solid R to Likely R.
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Fox News Power Rankings on Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
House: The floor for Democrats ticks up four seats to 223
Democrats are still likely to flip the House this November, and in this forecast, they’re predicted to take at least 223 seats.
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Fox News Power Rankings on House forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Since a good night for the Democrats would see them take most of the toss-up races, they could end up with as many as 240 seats.
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Fox News Power Rankings on House forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
(On a great Democratic night, the party would pick up most of the Lean R districts as well, taking them as high as 252 seats.)
Republicans have 195 seats in their columns. A good night for them would take that total up to around 212. That’s six short of a majority, but enough to make life difficult for the next Democratic House Speaker, who would have to balance the demands of the moderate and far-left wings of the party.
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Fox News Power Rankings on House forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Nineteen more races have shifted in the Democrats’ direction this week, all on the same themes outlined in the last House update: national and district polling, top-of-the-ticket strength, and rural voter erosion.
The earliest-closing districts on election night will give some sense of the House’s future. Keep an eye on Kentucky’s 6th district, which covers Lexington and a large central area of the state. Trump won here by 15 points in the last presidential election. Thanks to a combination of left-leaning college voters and farmers grappling with higher costs, it looks close this cycle. The district moves from Lean R to Toss-up.
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Fox News Power Rankings on House forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Governor: Ad or no ad, the Ohio governor’s race moves to Lean D
Finally, Ohio’s gubernatorial race is also on the move. The campaign between Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy was the top story in politics last week after Ramaswamy ran an ad featuring Acton’s mother, who called her daughter a liar.
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Fox News Power Rankings on gubernatorial forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Acton has been estranged from her mother since age 12, when she says she and her brother left her family home because her mother’s husband was sexually abusing her. Acton’s brother now appears in a response ad discussing their family history.
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Fox News Power Rankings on gubernatorial forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
This ratings change is less about the response to the ad (Ramaswamy and President Trump are supportive of the commercial; most others including Husted and Governor Mike DeWine are against it) than it is about the fact that the Ramaswamy campaign felt the need to run it.
While Ramaswamy sat only two points behind Acton in last week’s Fox poll, he’s an average of seven points behind in other high-quality polls since September.
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Fox News Power Rankings on gubernatorial forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
The businessman and onetime presidential hopeful has struggled in favorability ratings throughout his political career. This ad is unlikely to help.
The Ohio governor’s race moves from Toss-up to Lean D.
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Fox News’ special coverage of the 2026 midterm elections begins at 6pm ET next Tuesday, November 3, anchored by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum. Tune in for the latest race calls and projections for control of the House and Senate from the Fox News Decision Desk.
Rémy Numa is a political consultant and Fox News contributor. You can follow him on X: @remynuma.
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