参议员罗杰·马歇尔将高油价与他对阵大型教会牧师亚当·汉密尔顿的紧张竞选挂钩
作者：亚历克斯·米勒 / 福克斯新闻
发布时间：2026年10月27日 凌晨5:00 美国东部时间
大型教会牧师威胁终结共和党在堪萨斯州延续近一个世纪的参议院胜绩https://www.foxnews.com/video/6407432069112
共和党籍堪萨斯州参议员罗杰·马歇尔深知自己正在为政治生命而战，他在堪萨斯州对阵亚当·汉密尔顿的唯一胜选途径，是争取特朗普的忠诚选民。但专家表示，他与特朗普的关系可能会成为他最大的软肋。
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堪萨斯州威奇托讯——共和党籍堪萨斯州参议员罗杰·马歇尔深知，他正在为政治生命而战，即便是在深红州堪萨斯州——自大萧条以来该州就未选举过民主党人。
这是一场参议院竞选，直到几个月前还未进入全国共和党的视线。但自称温和派的知名大型教会牧师亚当·汉密尔顿，已让这场竞选对马歇尔和共和党来说紧张得令人不安，将原本稳操胜券的局面推入了胜负难料的地带。
在堪萨斯州威奇托接受福克斯新闻数字频道采访时，距离唐纳德·特朗普总统为这位深陷困境的在职参议员造势活动开始仅数小时，马歇尔承认，若他落败，民主党极有可能掌控参议院。
冷门参议院竞选成为共和党中期选举前的意外头痛问题
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2026年10月19日，唐纳德·特朗普总统与共和党籍堪萨斯州参议员罗杰·马歇尔在堪萨斯州帕克城参加竞选活动。（图片来源：Bloomberg via Getty Images）
“我并非政治专家，只是一名医生，但如果我们失去堪萨斯州，我看不出我们还能如何掌控参议院，”马歇尔表示，“正因如此，投票给亚当·汉密尔顿，就是投票给查克·舒曼，让民主党掌控参议院。就是这么简单。”
共和党正努力维持甚至扩大参议院仅53席的微弱多数。堪萨斯州近一个世纪未选举民主党人参议员，本不应成为问题。
但当地政治专家认为，汉密尔顿作为候选人的独特性——他担任大型“复活教堂”负责人近30年，在堪萨斯州是知名人物——以及与特朗普相关的政治逆风，已为马歇尔的败选创造了理想环境。
“我无法想象还有哪些因素对民主党来说比本届选举周期更有利，”堪萨斯大学政治学教授唐·海德-马凯尔对福克斯新闻数字频道表示，“上一次局势如此胶着还是在2020年，而那次竞选最终并未那么接近。”
民主党参议院候选人拒绝舒曼，但受益于其盟友的数百万美元支出
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那是马歇尔首次参选参议院，当时他凭借特朗普的选票，以近12个百分点的优势获胜。
但正如海德-马凯尔等人指出的，中期选举通常是在野党对执政党进行的牵制，而特朗普并未参选本届选举——尽管他在堪萨斯州帕克城造势活动中恳求堪萨斯人忽略这一现实。
“在这场选举中，我请求大家，请就当我正在参选，”特朗普表示，“就当这么回事吧。”
尽管如此，堪萨斯州选民仍面临着生活成本和高油价问题，马歇尔承认这就是为何他的竞选比外界最初预测的紧张得多。
“说吧，就是油价的问题，我确实能感受到人们的难处，”马歇尔表示，“我每年都会走遍全州105个县，6月份就能走完所有县，而随着油价上涨，我感受到的挫败感越来越强烈。”
“所以可能在伊朗战争之前我们还领先12个百分点，油价上涨后我的民调支持率就下滑了，所以我觉得就是油价的问题，”他接着说。
在连接汉密尔顿总部所在地欧弗兰帕克与曾短暂成为MAGA宇宙中心的威奇托的沥青和混凝土干道上，加油站的霓虹招牌几乎都显示油价仅略低于4美元，柴油价格则超过6美元。
特朗普选民透露他们中期选举前最大的恐惧——并非物价上涨
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民主党参议员候选人亚当·汉密尔顿在密苏里州堪萨斯城WDAF电视台演播室与共和党籍堪萨斯州参议员罗杰·马歇尔进行电视辩论后，回答媒体提问。（图片来源：AFP via Getty Images）
堪萨斯州立大学政治学教授纳撒尼尔·伯克黑德认为，高油价和柴油价格无疑是马歇尔遭遇困境的因素之一，但并非唯一因素。
伯克黑德对福克斯新闻数字频道表示，马歇尔与特朗普的紧密联系，在“特朗普品牌并不受欢迎”的时期，为汉密尔顿这样的民主党人进入竞争打开了缺口。
“所以我们看到这种反差：汉密尔顿受益于共和党不景气的年份，但同样，马歇尔选择与特朗普深度绑定，而非尝试与他切割，”伯克黑德表示，“如果是杰里·莫兰参选而非罗杰·马歇尔，我认为竞争会小得多。”
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这就是马歇尔和共和党面临的难题——他们知道需要特朗普的支持及其忠诚选民，但必须把握好分寸，争取其他共和党选民和独立选民，这些选民可能会放弃投票或投票给另一方。
这也是马歇尔论点的核心：没有MAGA选民的投票，他无法赢得选举。
“说吧，我是一名医生，总是权衡一切的利弊风险，我告诉你们，没有特朗普选民出来投票，我们就赢不了这场选举，”马歇尔表示，“大多数未决定的选民都是特朗普的支持者，他们需要听到特朗普说：‘这是解决办法，这就是我们让油价回落的计划。如果我们让民主党掌控，油价永远不会降下来。’”
亚历克斯·米勒是福克斯新闻数字频道负责报道美国参议院的记者。
Trump-backed senator admits GOP faces nightmare scenario in state Republicans haven’t lost in 90 years
Sen Roger Marshall linked high gas prices to his tightening contest against megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton
By Alex Miller / Fox News
Published October 27, 2026 5:00am EDT
Megachurch pastor threatens to end Republicans’ nearly century-long Senate winning streak in Kansashttps://www.foxnews.com/video/6407432069112
Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., knows he running for his political life, and his only way to win in Kansas against Adam Hamilton is by getting Trump’s loyal voters. But experts say his relationship with Trump could be his biggest weakness.
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WICHITA, Kan. — Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., knows that he’s running for his political life, even in deep-red Kansas, where a Democrat hasn’t won since the Great Depression.
It’s a Senate race that, until just a few months ago, was not on national Republicans’ radar. But Adam Hamilton, a well-known megachurch pastor styling himself as a moderate, has made the race uncomfortably close for Marshall and the GOP and pushed what was once a safe bet into toss-up territories.
In an interview with Fox News Digital in Wichita, Kan., hours before President Donald Trump was set to rally behind the embattled incumbent, Marshall acknowledged that if he falls, Democrats may very well gain control of the Senate.
SLEEPER SENATE RACE EMERGES AS UNEXPECTED HEADACHE FOR REPUBLICANS AHEAD OF MIDTERMS
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President Donald Trump and Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., attend a campaign event in Park City, Kansas, on Oct. 19, 2026.(Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“I think that, you know, I’m not a political expert, I’m a physician, but if we lose Kansas, I don’t see how we keep control of the Senate,” Marshall said. “And that’s why a vote for Adam Hamilton is a vote for Chuck Schumer and Democrat control of the Senate. It’s that simple.”
Republicans are trying to maintain, and even grow, their slim, 53-seat majority in the upper chamber. Kansas, which hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century, wasn’t supposed to be a problem.
But political experts on the ground contend that Hamilton’s uniqueness as a candidate — he’s been a prominent figure in Kansas for roughly three decades leading the massive Church of the Resurrection — and the political headwinds associated with Trump have created an ideal environment for Marshall to lose.
“I can’t imagine how factors could be any better for Democrats than they are this election cycle,” Don Haider-Markel, a professor of political science at the University of Kansas, told Fox News Digital. “The last time it seemed to be close at all was 2020, and that race ended up not being as close.”
DEM SENATE HOPEFUL REJECTS SCHUMER BUT BENEFITS FROM MILLIONS IN SPENDING BY HIS ALLIES
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That was Marshall’s first race for the Senate, where he won by nearly 12 points with Trump at the top of the ticket.
But as Haider-Markel and others have pointed out, midterm elections are typically a check on the party in power, and Trump is not on the ballot this year, though that’s a reality he implored Kansans to ignore during his rally in Park City, Kansas.
“In this election, I’m asking you to pretend please that I’m on the ballot,” Trump said. “Just pretend.”
Still, voters in Kansas are dealing with affordability issues and high fuel prices, a point that Marshall admitted was why his race was much closer than outside observers initially predicted.
“Look, it’s the price of gas, and I do feel people’s pain,” Marshall said. “Every year I go to all 105 counties, finish up the 105 counties in June, and as that price of gas went up, I felt more and more frustration.”
“So maybe we’re up 12 points before the Iran war, and as the price went up our poll numbers went down, so I think it’s the price of gas,” he continued.
Along the asphalt and concrete arteries that connect Hamilton’s home base of Overland Park, Kansas, to what would be, for a brief moment, the center of the MAGA universe in Wichita, neon signs sprouting from gas stations almost all showed fuel prices that hovered just below $4 for gas and well over $6 for diesel.
TRUMP VOTERS REVEAL THEIR BIGGEST FEAR HEADING INTO MIDTERMS — AND IT’S NOT RISING PRICES
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Democrat senatorial candidate Adam Hamilton answers questions from the media after a televised debate with Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., at WDAF studios in Kansas City, Mo.(AFP via Getty Images)
Nathaniel Birkhead, a professor of political science at Kansas State University, argued that high gas and diesel prices were certainly a contributing factor to Marshall’s struggles, but not the only one.
Birkhead told Fox News Digital that it was Marshall’s tight connection to Trump at a time when the “Trump Brand is not particularly popular” has left an opening for a Democrat like Hamilton to enter the fray.
“So we have this kind of contrast of Hamilton benefiting from kind of a down year for Republicans. But then also, again, the fact that Marshall is really kind of tying himself to Trump rather than trying to kind of separate himself,” Birkhead said. “I think if this had been Jerry Moran running instead of Roger Marshall, I think it’d be far less competitive.”
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Therein lies the conundrum for Marshall and Republicans — they know that they need Trump’s support and his loyal base of voters, but they have to walk a fine line to capture other Republican voters and independents that might sit this election out or vote the other way.
And that’s the crux of Marshall’s argument: without MAGA voters, he can’t win.
“Look, I’m the doctor always weighing the benefits and risks of everything. And I’m telling you, we don’t win this election without Trump voters getting out and voting,” Marshall said. “The majority of the undecideds are Trump supporters. And they need to hear from him, ‘Here’s the plan, and this is how we’re going to bring those prices back down, that if we leave Democrats in control, the price of the gas will never go down.’”
Alex Miller is a writer for Fox News Digital covering the U.S. Senate.
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