2026年10月23日 下午12:57 EDT / 福克斯新闻网
从迈克·约翰逊到哈基姆·杰弗里斯，再到约翰·图恩，选举后所有高层领导职位都可能存在变数
查德·佩格拉姆
【新报道 您现在可以收听福克斯新闻的文章】
收听本文
时长8分钟
国会山即将开启一场为期两年的“抢椅子游戏”。
当音乐停止时，所有人都得找到座位，没找到的就会被淘汰。
未来几周内，国会将进行四组领导层选举，众议院和参议院的共和党、民主党将分别选出各自的最高领袖。新国会于1月3日开幕后，全体众议院议员必须选举议长；全体参议院议员选举多数党领袖，而该职位由参议院多数党单独决定。
我们预计，选举结果出来后，各议院的多数党归属将决定领导层职位的争夺战会在接下来的几天内爆发。
若民主党掌控众议院，乔丹或成为共和党下一任领袖
2026年6月30日，在华盛顿特区美国国会大厦，共和党籍众议员史蒂夫·斯卡利斯（路易斯安那州）与众议长、共和党籍的迈克·约翰逊（路易斯安那州）出席新闻发布会。（格拉姆·斯隆/彭博社通过盖蒂图片社获取）
先从众议院共和党说起。
如果共和党保住众议院控制权，共和党很可能会保留现任领导团队：众议院议长、共和党籍的迈克·约翰逊（路易斯安那州），多数党领袖、共和党籍的史蒂夫·斯卡利斯（路易斯安那州），以及多数党党鞭、共和党籍的汤姆·埃默（明尼苏达州）。但如果共和党失去众议院控制权，互相指责以及一场激烈的政治“抢椅子游戏”恐怕就会开始。
原因何在？少数党只能有两名最高领导职位，而多数党则有三名。约翰逊会转为少数党领袖吗？他自己想担任这个职位吗？总统唐纳德·特朗普希望他担任这一职位，还是其他人？
无论如何，新国会中众议院共和党领袖的人选，就是特朗普支持的那个人。
斯卡利斯会成为少数党领袖吗？他会转为少数党党鞭吗？埃默在这一体系中会处于什么位置？埃默有可能成为众议院共和党头号人物吗？
然后是共和党籍众议员吉姆·乔丹（俄亥俄州）。
显然，乔丹想成为众议院共和党领袖。他已经为共和党候选人及议员奔走数月，还为共和党筹了多年的钱。目前尚不清楚乔丹是否很快会与约翰逊或其他人展开竞争。
要知道，2023年秋天，众议院罢免前议长、共和党籍的凯文·麦卡锡时，斯卡利斯、埃默和乔丹都曾参选议长却失败了。事实上，乔丹在众议院议长的多次全院投票中落败，之后众议院共和党核心小组将他排除在共和党提名人选之外。
在此期间，乔丹一直在努力修复与三年前反对他的共和党人之间的关系。这位俄亥俄州共和党人仍是特朗普的亲密盟友，同时与保守派的众议院自由核心小组保持着紧密联系。
杰弗里斯欢迎民主社会主义者加入阵营，批评者警告该党正“暴露真面目”
2026年4月21日，在华盛顿特区美国国会大厦的政策午餐会后，共和党籍参议院多数党领袖、来自南达科他州的约翰·图恩在新闻发布会上发言。（内森·波斯纳/阿纳多卢通讯社通过盖蒂图片社获取）
问题在于，共和党普通议员如果发现自己成为少数党，会想做什么？有些人可能希望共和党领导层团队进行全面改组，但一切都将取决于“抢椅子游戏”，当音乐停止时，可能会有——如果不是几个的话——许多人找不到座位。
民主党这边情况更明朗些。假设民主党赢得众议院控制权：诚然，美国民主社会主义者及一些潜在成员对将众议院少数党领袖、民主党籍的哈基姆·杰弗里斯（纽约州）提拔为众议院议长存在顾虑，但很难想象民主党会不推举他成为美国历史上第一位黑人议长。众议院少数党党鞭、民主党籍的凯瑟琳·克拉克（马萨诸塞州）将升任多数党领袖，众议院民主党核心小组主席、民主党籍的皮特·阿吉拉尔（加利福尼亚州）很可能成为多数党党鞭。
但如果民主党未能拿下众议院，他们的领导层会保持现状吗？尚不清楚。民主党已设定了很高的期望，因此可以想象这样一种场景：在共和党处境如此不利的政治环境下，如果民主党未能夺回众议院，普通民主党议员会因中期选举失利而愤怒，进而呼吁更换部分领导人。
接下来是参议院。
共和党籍参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩（南达科他州）在特朗普面前的政治分量不如约翰逊。总统已经开始对参议院的日程安排或他希望通过的法案提出要求。这位南达科他州共和党人抵制了许多此类要求。但如果共和党失去参议院控制权，会发生什么？
许多参议院共和党人对总统对待前参议院共和党党鞭、共和党籍的得克萨斯州参议员约翰·科宁的方式感到不满。如果总统要求罢免图恩——在少数党时是这样，在多数党时更是如此——他们会感到愤怒。到目前为止，特朗普一直有所克制，没有直接表达对图恩的不满。但人们不禁要问这种情况还能持续多久，尤其是考虑到总统对前参议院多数党领袖、来自肯塔基州的共和党籍米奇·麦康奈尔的评价——麦康奈尔曾推动三位最高法院大法官提名获得确认，过程跌宕起伏。
共和党从关键选区撤资，图恩对共和党参议院胜算做出大胆预测
2026年10月7日，唐纳德·特朗普总统在德克萨斯州圣安东尼奥市弗里曼体育馆举行竞选集会后走下台并挥手致意。（温·麦克纳梅/盖蒂图片社获取）
谁可能会填补共和党参议院领导层可能出现的空缺？
共和党籍参议院多数党党鞭约翰·巴拉索（怀俄明州）是显而易见的选择。巴拉索似乎比图恩更接近总统，而且他有机会批评特朗普时，也始终坦率直言。如果出现空缺，这可能对巴拉索有利。
不过领导层选举始终是关于机会的。有时，那些有资历的人物因任职一段时间而背负太多包袱。如果共和党领导层内部出现改组呼声，以下是需要关注的人物：阿拉斯加州共和党参议员凯蒂·布里特、路易斯安那州共和党参议员约翰·肯尼迪、佛罗里达州共和党参议员里克·斯科特。
布里特曾是参议院助理，拥有扎实的“内部运作能力”，且与政府部门合作良好。肯尼迪的务实风格让他成为电视出镜的焦点人物，他还花了大量时间奔波为参议院共和党候选人助选。两年前，斯科特曾竞选多数党领袖，但在首轮投票中输给了图恩和科宁。
再说说参议院民主党人。
有些人对参议院少数党领袖、民主党籍的查克·舒默（纽约州）提出了诸多批评，比如他的年龄，以及他的政治风格对一些人来说似乎过时了，但很难说他的成功不符合预期。如果民主党夺回参议院，舒默很可能成为多数党领袖。但如果民主党未能控制参议院，情况可能会改变。政治观察人士认为，民主党夺回参议院的机会不如夺回众议院。因此，如果民主党未能控制参议院，他们未必会想要更换领导层。
一个“确定的”情况是，民主党籍夏威夷州参议员布赖恩·夏茨正在参选，以接替即将退休的参议院少数党党鞭、民主党籍伊利诺伊州参议员迪克·德宾。不过，人们可以想象这样一种场景：如果舒默离任，夏茨将成为参议院民主党领袖。和布里特一样，夏茨是一名经验丰富的内部运作专家，深谙民主党核心小组的微妙之处。
点击此处下载福克斯新闻应用
如果他们不竞选总统，其他可能对领导层职位感兴趣的人包括：新泽西州民主党参议员科里·布克、康涅狄格州民主党参议员克里斯·墨菲、密歇根州民主党参议员埃丽莎·斯洛克金、马萨诸塞州民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，以及马里兰州民主党参议员克里斯·范霍伦。
布克因去年创下纪录的25小时演讲而获得公信力；墨菲作为上镜发言人吸引着该党，2015年他曾在参议院就枪支暴力问题发表近15小时的演讲；斯洛克金是关键摇摆州的温和派民主党人，喜欢与特朗普政府展开交锋——尽管她在应对媒体时有所选择；她表示，“旧的”参议院领导模式已不再奏效；沃伦得到进步派的支持；而范霍伦已经获得密歇根州民主党参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德的支持。
这一切都需要梳理清楚，而这完全取决于选举结果。领导层选举通常在11月中下旬举行。如果要花一段时间才能确定国会各议院的多数党归属，领导层选举可能会推迟。
但音乐已经响起，所有人都在争取席位，因为音乐即将停止。
查德·佩格拉姆目前是福克斯新闻频道（FNC）的首席国会记者。他于2007年9月加入该网络，基地设在华盛顿特区。
Reporter’s Notebook: Congress braces for post-election game of musical chairs as leadership battles loom
October 23, 2026 12:57pm EDT / Fox News
From Mike Johnson to Hakeem Jeffries to John Thune, every top leadership post could be up for grabs after the election
Chad Pergram
NEW You can now listen to Fox News articles!
Listen to this article
8 min
Capitol Hill is about to embark on a biennial game of musical chairs.
Everyone needs to find a seat when the music stops. Those who don’t are out.
There are four sets of leadership elections pending in Congress over the next few weeks. House Republicans and Democrats will pick their top leaders. The same with Senate Republicans and Democrats. The entire House must elect a speaker when the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3. The full Senate chooses the majority leader. That’s decided individually by the majority party in the Senate.
We anticipate a scramble for leadership positions in the days following the election, depending on which party captures the majority of each body for the new Congress.
JORDAN EMERGES AS POTENTIAL NEXT GOP LEADER IF DEMS SEIZE HOUSE
Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La., and Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., attend a news conference at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on June 30, 2026.(Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Let’s start with House Republicans.
If Republicans maintain control of the House, the GOP will likely maintain its current leadership team of House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn. However, if the GOP loses control of the House, recriminations — and an epic game of vicious political musical chairs likely commences.
The reason? In the minority, a party only has two top leadership positions compared to three in the majority. Will Johnson slide to minority leader? Does he want that slot? Does President Donald Trump want him in that position? Or someone else?
Regardless, whoever Trump wants as the top House Republican is the one who gets that slot in the new Congress.
Would Scalise become minority leader? Would he slide to minority whip? Where does Emmer fit in here? Could Emmer become the top House GOPer?
Then there is Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio.
It’s clear that Jordan wants to become the top Republican in the House. He’s campaigned for Republican candidates and members for months and has raised money on the GOP’s behalf for years. It’s unclear if Jordan might be in a race against Johnson or any of the others soon.
Keep in mind that Scalise, Emmer and Jordan all lost bids to become speaker when the House dismissed former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., in the fall of 2023. In fact, Jordan lost multiple floor votes for speaker before the House Republican Conference nixed him as the GOP nominee.
In the interim, Jordan has worked to build bridges among Republicans who opposed him three years ago. The Ohio Republican also remains a close ally of Trump. Jordan also maintains strong ties to the conservative House Freedom Caucus.
JEFFRIES WELCOMES DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISTS INTO THE FOLD AS CRITICS WARN PARTY IS REVEALING ‘EXACTLY WHO IT IS’
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., speaks at a press conference with Senate Republican leaders following a policy luncheon at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on April 21, 2026.(Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The question is what rank-and-file Republicans want to do if they find themselves in the minority? Some might prefer a wholesale set of changes among the GOP leadership team. But it will come down to musical chairs. And somebody — if not several somebodies — probably lack a seat when the music stops.
For the Democrats, their situation is easier. Let’s say Democrats do win control of the House. Yes, the Democratic Socialists of America and some possible members have reservations about promoting House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., to become speaker of the House. But it’s hard to see that Democrats wouldn’t tap him as the first Black speaker in American history. House Minority Whip Katherine Clark, D-Mass., would matriculate to majority leader. House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., would likely become majority whip.
However, if Democrats don’t win the House, would their top leaders remain in place? Unclear. Democrats have established high expectations. So one can envision a scenario where rank-and-file Democrats are so exercised about a midterm loss that they call for some new leaders if Democrats fail to flip the House in such a toxic political environment for Republicans.
Then, there’s the Senate.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., does not wield the same political currency with Trump as Johnson. The president has started to make demands of the Senate schedule or what he wants passed. The South Dakota Republican has resisted many of those entreaties. But what happens if Republicans lose control of the Senate?
Many Senate Republicans are apoplectic at how the president treated Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, who formerly served as Senate GOP whip. They will rage if the president calls for the dismissal of Thune — in the minority but especially the majority. So far, Trump has kept things in check and not expressed direct displeasure with Thune personally. But one wonders how long that would continue. Especially considering what the president said about former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. – who ushered three Supreme Court nominees to confirmation under dramatic circumstances.
THUNE MAKES BOLD PREDICTION ABOUT REPUBLICANS’ SENATE CHANCES AS GOP PULLS MILLIONS FROM KEY RACES
President Donald Trump waves as he leaves the stage following a campaign rally at Freeman Coliseum on Oct. 7, 2026, in San Antonio, Texas.(Win McNamee/Getty Images)
Who could step into a possible Senate GOP leadership void?
Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., is the obvious choice. Barrasso appears closer to the president than Thune — and remains airtight when given the opportunity to criticize Trump. That could work in Barrasso’s favor if there’s an opening.
But leadership elections are always about opportunities. And sometimes those figures with certain bona fides have too much baggage from being on the job for a while. Here are the names to watch if there’s a push for changes inside the GOP leadership ranks: Sens. Katie Britt, R-Ala., John Kennedy, R-La., and Rick Scott, R-Fla.
A former Senate aide, Britt has a solid “inside game” and works well with the administration. Kennedy’s folksy manner makes him a darling of TV appearances. He also spent lots of time on the road campaigning for Senate Republican candidates. Scott ran for majority leader two years ago and lost to Thune and Cornyn in the first round.
Then there are Senate Democrats.
Some have lobbed gobs of criticism at Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. His age. His style of politics seems archaic to some. But it’s hard to argue with success. Schumer likely becomes majority leader if Democrats flip the Senate. But things could change if Democrats fail to gain control of the body. Political observers don’t think Democrats have as good a chance at flipping the Senate as the House. So it’s not a done deal that Democrats will want new leadership if Democrats fail to gain control.
The one “known” is the pending candidacy of Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, to succeed retiring Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill. However, one could envision a scenario where Schatz becomes the top Senate Democrat if Schumer departs. Like Britt, Schatz is an intense internal operator and understands the subtleties of the Democratic Caucus.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP
Others who may have an interest in a leadership post — if they don’t run for president — include Sens. Cory Booker, D-N.J., Chris Murphy, D-Conn., Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Chris Van Hollen, D-Md.
Booker has credibility for his record-breaking 25-hour speech last year. Murphy appeals to the party as a telegenic spokesperson — and spoke on the floor for nearly 15 hours on gun violence in 2015. Slotkin is a moderate Democrat in a purple state who likes to tangle with the Trump administration — despite picking some of her spots to address the press corps. She’s said that the “old” Senate leadership models are no longer working. Warren commands the support of progressives. And Van Hollen already has the backing of Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed.
This is a lot to sort out. And it all hinges on the election outcomes. Leadership elections usually take place in mid to late November. It’s possible there could be a delay in leadership elections if it takes a while to sort out which party controls which body of Congress.
But the music is already playing. And everyone is jockeying for a seat because the music is about to stop.
Chad Pergram currently serves as Chief Congressional Correspondent for FOX News Channel (FNC). He joined the network in September 2007 and is based out of Washington, D.C.
发表回复