2026年10月23日 美国东部时间上午6:00 / 福克斯新闻
美国企业研究所资深研究员哈尔·布兰兹解释，豁免新的对俄制裁可能如何影响美国对莫斯科的影响力，以及普京发动战争的努力。
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美国总统唐纳德·特朗普正搁置国会交由他实施的对俄大范围新经济制裁。
他押注将这些制裁作为储备，有助于推动弗拉基米尔·普京坐到谈判桌前。但这一策略遭到共和党盟友的批评，外界质疑莫斯科方面是否相信他会真正动用这些制裁。
过去约一周时间里，特朗普政府豁免了上个月出台的大部分新对俄制裁及关税，同时单独放宽了对俄罗斯柴油出口的限制。一位外交政策专家称，这是特朗普迄今为止为减轻对莫斯科的经济压力所做的最重大努力。
“这很可能是特朗普政府为逐步取消自2022年以来（部分领域更早）针对俄罗斯的制裁体系所做的最大努力，”美国企业研究所资深研究员、约翰斯·霍普金斯高等国际研究学院教授哈尔·布兰兹在接受福克斯新闻数字频道采访时表示。
特朗普在俄乌冲突持续期间对俄采取不同策略，以缓解美国民众压力
美国阿拉斯加州安克雷奇市，2025年8月15日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京在埃尔门多夫-理查森联合基地举行会晤。（安德鲁·哈尼克/盖蒂图片社）
特朗普认为，实施新制裁可能会迫使俄罗斯放弃和平谈判。但布兰兹表示，反复推迟经济惩罚可能会让普京认为华盛顿不愿兑现威胁。
“如果你一段时间内表现出自己更倾向于不实施这些制裁，那么实施制裁的威胁可能会失去部分可信度，”布兰兹说。
共和党议员在俄罗斯柴油协议问题上与特朗普产生分歧
这一决定招致了共和党人的批评，他们曾推动通过《林赛·O·格雷厄姆制裁俄罗斯和伊朗法案》，其中包括曾与特朗普白宫合作推动法案通过的特朗普盟友。
在该立法通过过程中发挥领导作用，并于上个月陪同特朗普在椭圆形办公室签署法案的阿拉巴马州共和党参议员凯蒂·布里特周二表示，政府应当加大对莫斯科的经济施压。
“我相信我们需要动用经济力量推动普京坐到谈判桌前，”布里特在接受《Semafor》采访时表示。“我认为俄罗斯正处于整场战争中最艰难的时刻，现在是我们加大压力的时机。”
西弗吉尼亚州共和党参议员雪莉·摩尔·卡皮托表示，国会已就该法案的时间安排与白宫协调，因此特朗普豁免大部分新制裁的决定格外令人意外。
“这是我们与白宫共同推进的国会法案，”卡皮托说。“我们选择在总统和白宫认为该法案能有效推进的时机敲定了时间。”
2026年3月3日，南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆在华盛顿特区美国国会举行的特朗普政府官员就美国打击伊朗行动举行的吹风会后对记者发言。（内森·波斯纳/阿纳多卢通讯社）
其他共和党人的批评则更为直接。
“这太不负责任了，”北卡罗来纳州共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯在社交平台X上写道。“参议院以86票赞成、11票反对通过的法案，总统及其顾问有哪点不理解？”
“政府向非法入侵乌克兰、每天屠杀无辜平民的俄罗斯独裁者投降，这是不可接受的，”他补充道。
南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员达琳·格雷厄姆是以上个月去世的她的兄弟命名的该法案的主要发起人，同时也是特朗普支持的候选人，她表示将“选择继续向俄罗斯施压”，因为“我不信任普京，也不信任俄罗斯”。
格雷厄姆法案于9月签署成为法律，规定对俄罗斯及俄罗斯能源主要买家征收高额关税，同时制裁俄罗斯金融机构以及与俄有重大业务往来的外国实体。
国会还加入了总统豁免权，特朗普援引该权力将法案中大部分新对俄制裁搁置。
布兰兹表示，加入豁免权未必是错误，即便这最终让特朗普得以规避国会议员希望实施的制裁。
“要起草一份能强制总统采取行动的制裁或关税法案非常困难，通常你不会这么做，因为你总能想象到需要豁免制裁的情况，”他说。
特朗普则为自己的决定辩护，称此举是为了让普京坐到谈判桌前的必要之举。
“我对俄罗斯的决定非常简单。我正在就俄乌战争的和平问题进行谈判，不会做任何会愚蠢地将俄罗斯推离谈判桌的事情，”特朗普周日写道。
2026年4月30日，爱荷华州米切尔维尔的一家Kwik Star加油站，一辆牵引车在加注柴油。（拜伦·霍格雷夫/彭博社通过盖蒂图片社）
特朗普在致国会的正式认证文件中表示，现在实施格雷厄姆法案的制裁“将阻碍美国正在进行的达成持久全面和平的努力”。他留待日后实施制裁的可能性，以“推动战争解决”。
布兰兹承认，保留制裁储备可以赋予总统谈判筹码，但他质疑普京是否相信特朗普准备兑现威胁。
“挑战在于，自林赛·格雷厄姆在2025年初首次推动这项法案以来，过去约18个月里情况已经很明确，总统根本无意像已故参议员格雷厄姆等人设想和期望的那样，对俄罗斯能源出口体系施加如此大的压力，”布兰兹说。
政府已单独放宽现有限制，允许更多俄罗斯柴油进入市场，此举旨在缓解全球燃料价格压力。
俄罗斯周三侵犯了北约领空。（亚历山大·卡扎科夫/SPUTNK/克里姆林宫池照片/美联社）
特朗普批评乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击，认为这正在加剧柴油市场压力。能源部长克里斯·赖特将制裁缓解描述为可能鼓励俄罗斯降温的“胡萝卜”。
布兰兹表示，柴油缓解对莫斯科的直接经济利益可能“相当有限”。他认为，更重要的决定是特朗普拒绝激活国会授权的更广泛制裁和关税。
“如果他同时动用制裁权力和针对海外俄罗斯能源产品买家的次级关税权力，将可能对俄罗斯产生相当大的压力，”布兰兹说。
这些措施可以“对俄罗斯战争经济造成相当大的挤压”，同时阻止其他国家与莫斯科开展业务，他补充道。
布兰兹承认，在特朗普专注于降低国内燃料价格之际，挤压俄罗斯能源出口可能会进一步加剧全球能源市场压力。
但他认为，更大的风险在于普京会如何看待华盛顿维持经济压力的意愿。
“普京对在乌克兰取胜的想法长期以来一直是，西方某个时刻，尤其是美国，将会对与俄罗斯对抗以及对乌援助的成本感到厌倦，”布兰兹说。
他解释称，人们的担忧与其说是莫斯科从额外柴油出口中获得的即时收入，不如说是放宽限制可能让普京认为华盛顿对与俄罗斯对抗感到厌倦。
“这里的风险不在于俄罗斯通过出口一些额外柴油将获得的精确美元或卢布数额，而在于你传递的战略信号：事实上，美国正在厌倦对俄罗斯施加经济压力，美俄关系将进入另一段冲突与分歧时期，”布兰兹说。
2026年9月20日，俄罗斯莫斯科，俄乌冲突期间，据当局称是乌克兰无人机袭击炼油厂后，炼油厂火灾冒出浓烟。（路透社/通讯员）
布兰兹认为近期没有达成谈判解决方案的前景，他主张改变普京的盘算需要让他相信继续战争的代价超过潜在收益。
“我认为实现这一目标的唯一途径是继续支持乌克兰，使其能够在战场上对俄罗斯造成越来越大的损失，并找到方法加大而不是减少对俄罗斯的经济压力，”布兰兹说。
特朗普的豁免并未消除格雷厄姆法案颁布前就存在的对俄制裁，政府可以重新审议新的制裁措施。
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这场争端的核心现在在于，将这些制裁作为储备是增强特朗普与普京谈判的筹码，还是如果莫斯科怀疑他愿意动用这些制裁，就会削弱它们的价值。
Trump sidelines sweeping Russia sanctions as GOP allies warn pressure on Putin is slipping
October 23, 2026 6:00am EDT / Fox News
AEI senior fellow Hal Brands explains how waiving new Russia penalties could affect U.S. leverage over Moscow and Putin’s war effort.
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President Donald Trump is holding back on sweeping new economic penalties Congress handed him to squeeze Russia.
He is betting that keeping those sanctions in reserve will help bring Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table, a strategy drawing criticism from Republican allies amid questions about whether Moscow believes he will ever use them.
Over roughly a week, the administration waived most of the new Russia sanctions and tariffs enacted last month while separately easing restrictions on Russian diesel exports, moves one foreign policy expert described as Trump’s most significant effort yet to unwind economic pressure on Moscow.
“It’s probably the biggest effort that the Trump administration has made to start unwinding the U.S. sanctions architecture that’s been in place against Russia since 2022 or even earlier in some cases,” Hal Brands, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, told Fox News Digital.
TRUMP TRIES DIFFERENT APPROACH WITH RUSSIA TO BRING AMERICANS RELIEF AMID ONGOING WAR WITH UKRAINE
U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a meeting at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson on Aug. 15, 2025, in Anchorage, Alaska.(Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
Trump argues that imposing the new penalties could drive Russia away from peace negotiations. But Brands said repeatedly holding back economic punishment risks convincing Putin that Washington is unwilling to follow through on its threats.
“The threat of imposition may lose some credibility if over a period of time you’ve demonstrated that you would prefer not to impose those penalties in the first place,” Brands said.
REPUBLICAN LAWMAKERS BREAK WITH TRUMP ON DIESEL DEAL WITH RUSSIA
The decision has drawn criticism from Republicans who helped advance the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, including Trump allies who worked with his White House to pass it.
Sen. Katie Britt, R-Ala., who played a leading role in passing the legislation and joined Trump in the Oval Office when he signed it last month, said Tuesday the administration should be turning up economic pressure on Moscow.
“It is my belief that we need to use economic firepower to help drive Putin to the table,” Britt told Semafor. “I believe that Russia is at the darkest point that they’ve been at in this entire war, and now is the time for us to turn up the pressure.”
Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., said Congress had coordinated the legislation’s timing with the White House, making Trump’s decision to waive most of its new penalties particularly surprising.
“This was an act of Congress that we had worked with the White House on,” Capito said. “We had timed this to when the president and the White House felt it was a good time to move forward with this, where it could be effective.”
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., speaks to reporters after a briefing by Trump administration officials on U.S. strikes on Iran at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on March 3, 2026.(Nathan Posner/Anadolu)
Other Republicans were more blunt in their criticism.
“Beyond irresponsible,” Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., wrote on X. “What part of enforcing a law passed 86-11 by the Senate does the President and his advisors not understand?”
“It’s unconscionable that this administration is capitulating to a Russian dictator who illegally invaded Ukraine and butchers innocent civilians every single day,” he added.
Sen. Darline Graham, R-S.C., the lead sponsor of the legislation named for her late brother and a Trump-endorsed candidate, said she would “choose to keep the pressure on Russia” because “I don’t trust Putin and I don’t trust Russia.”
The Graham Act, signed into law in September, provided for steep tariffs targeting Russia and major purchasers of Russian energy, along with sanctions on Russian financial institutions and foreign entities doing significant business with them.
Congress also included presidential waiver authority, which Trump invoked to put most of the law’s new Russia penalties on hold.
Brands said including a waiver was not necessarily a mistake, even if it ultimately allowed Trump to avoid imposing the penalties lawmakers had sought.
“It’s really tough to craft a sanctions or tariffs bill that forces the president to do something, and typically you don’t want to do that because there are always circumstances one can imagine in which you might want to be able to waive sanctions,” he said.
Trump has defended his decision as necessary to keep Putin at the negotiating table.
“My decision on Russia is a very simple one. I am in the process of negotiating Peace in the war between Russia and Ukraine, and don’t want to do anything that will drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table,” Trump wrote Sunday.
A tractor trailer refuels with diesel fuel at a Kwik Star gas station in Mitchellville, Iowa, on Thursday, April 30, 2026.(Bryon Houlgrave/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
In his formal certification to Congress, Trump said imposing the Graham Act penalties now “would impede ongoing U.S. efforts to negotiate a durable and comprehensive peace.” He left open the possibility of imposing them later to “incentivize resolution” of the war.
Brands acknowledged that holding sanctions in reserve can give a president bargaining power, but questioned whether Putin believes Trump is prepared to follow through.
“The challenge is that it’s been clear for about 18 months now, since Lindsey Graham started pushing this bill in the first place in the early parts of 2025, that the president simply doesn’t have much appetite for squeezing the Russian energy export system to the degree that people like the late Senator Graham envisioned and desired,” Brands said.
The administration has separately eased existing restrictions to allow more Russian diesel onto the market, a move intended to relieve pressure on global fuel prices.
Russia violated NATO airspace on Wednesday.(Alexander Kazakov/Sputnik/Kremlin Pool Photo/AP)
Trump has criticized Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, arguing they are straining diesel markets. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has described sanctions relief as a “carrot” that could encourage Russia to de-escalate.
Brands said the immediate financial benefit to Moscow from diesel relief is probably “fairly marginal.” The more consequential decision, he argued, was Trump’s refusal to activate the broader sanctions and tariffs Congress authorized.
“There’s a potential for pretty serious pressure to be exerted if he had used both the sanctions authorities and essentially the secondary tariff authorities to go after purchasers of Russian energy products overseas,” Brands said.
Such measures could “put a fairly significant squeeze on the Russian war economy” while discouraging other countries from doing business with Moscow, he added.
Brands acknowledged that squeezing Russian energy exports could further strain global energy markets when Trump is focused on lowering fuel prices at home.
But he argued that the larger risk lies in what Putin concludes about Washington’s willingness to sustain economic pressure.
“Putin’s theory of victory in Ukraine for a long time has been that at some point the West, particularly the United States, will get tired of the costs of confrontation with Russia and support for Ukraine,” Brands said.
The concern, he explained, is less about the immediate revenue Moscow gains from additional diesel exports than the possibility that easing restrictions reinforces Putin’s belief that Washington is growing tired of confronting Russia.
“The risk you run here has less to do with the precise dollar or ruble amount that Russia will gain by being allowed to export some additional diesel than with the strategic signal you’re sending that, in fact, the U.S. is getting tired of applying economic pressure against Russia and that the U.S.-Ukraine relationship is entering another period of conflict and divergence,” Brands said.
Plumes of smoke rise from fires at an oil refinery following what authorities said was a Ukrainian drone strike during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in Moscow, Russia, on Sept. 20, 2026.(REUTERS/Stringer)
Brands sees little prospect for a negotiated settlement in the immediate future and argued that changing Putin’s calculation would require convincing him that the costs of continuing the war outweigh the potential gains.
“I think the only way you get there is by continuing to support Ukraine so it can take an increasing toll on Russia on the battlefield and by finding ways of ramping up rather than ramping down the economic pressure on Russia,” Brands said.
Trump’s waiver does not eliminate sanctions against Russia that predated the Graham Act, and the administration can revisit the new penalties.
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The dispute now centers on whether keeping those penalties in reserve strengthens Trump’s hand with Putin — or diminishes their value if Moscow doubts he is willing to use them.
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