超过半数缅因州选民强烈不认可总统的工作表现
2026年10月22日 美国东部时间下午6:00 / 福克斯新闻
撰稿人：达娜·布兰特顿 福克斯新闻
这能让你充分了解特洛伊·杰克逊的立场，参议员苏珊·柯林斯如是说
缅因州共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯表示，她对对手特洛伊·杰克逊在《汉尼提》节目中说出“闭嘴”的言论感到震惊。
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缅因州选民在本届选举季情绪消极。仅有12%的人表示，与两年前相比，他们的家庭经济状况有所改善，超过六成选民不认可总统唐纳德·特朗普的工作表现，其中包括两成共和党选民。
福克斯新闻民调：得克萨斯州参议院选战势均力敌，即将决出胜负
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福克斯新闻针对缅因州可能选民的民调显示，这种负面情绪对共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯造成了不利影响：53%的选民担心她过于频繁地与特朗普投票立场一致。相比之下，46%的选民担忧民主党挑战者特洛伊·杰克逊过于激进。
福克斯新闻民调：性别差距与钱包压力影响俄亥俄州参议院选战
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尽管存在上述观点，但选战胶着，杰克逊与柯林斯的支持率均为49%。所有调查访谈均在10月15日的候选人辩论结束后完成。
1990年代首次当选参议员的柯林斯正谋求第六个任期。她是今年唯一一位在特朗普2024年以7个百分点优势落败的州寻求连任的共和党参议员。2020年，柯林斯以近9个百分点的优势获胜。
民主党将缅因州席位视为夺取参议院控制权的必争之地。当被问及参议院控制权归属时，53%的选民倾向于民主党掌控参议院，而45%的选民希望共和党继续把持参议院。几乎所有杰克逊的支持者都希望民主党掌控参议院（96%），但柯林斯的支持者态度更分化：89%希望共和党掌控参议院，不过也有9%更倾向于民主党领导。
柯林斯需要克服左翼的参选热情：民主党选民中79%表示对选举极度感兴趣，而共和党选民中这一比例为61%，这也解释了杰克逊在该群体中领先16个百分点的原因。在“肯定会投票”的选民中，杰克逊领先4个百分点，同时在已提前投票的五分之一缅因州选民中，杰克逊以决定性的40个百分点优势领先。另一方面，略多数选民计划在选举日当天投票，这部分选民以12个百分点的优势支持柯林斯。
“柯林斯早已习惯超越本党阵营，但民主党在热情度上领先18个百分点，”贝肯研究公司的米凯拉·林德说道，该民主党民调机构与共和党人达伦·肖合作开展福克斯新闻民调。“特朗普的支持率落后25个百分点，多数人强烈不认可他的表现。如果杰克逊能将这种势头带出基本盘并坚持到最后，他就有机可乘。”
对总统工作表现的看法对缅因州的共和党候选人来说是个难题。目前，37%的选民认可特朗普的总统工作表现，而62%的选民不认可，其中54%的人强烈不认可。
两位候选人的个人支持率均为负值。杰克逊的支持率为负2个百分点（47%正面，49%负面），柯林斯的支持率为负4个百分点（47%正面，51%负面）。
党派投票选择在关键群体中差异显著。45岁以下选民以6个百分点的优势支持柯林斯，而45岁及以上选民则以3个百分点的优势支持杰克逊。女性选民以5个百分点支持杰克逊，男性选民则以4个百分点支持柯林斯。
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分歧最明显的群体是教育背景：拥有大学学位的缅因州选民以23个百分点支持杰克逊，而没有大学学位的选民则以16个百分点支持柯林斯。
柯林斯在农村地区的选民中以7个百分点领先，而杰克逊在数量较少的郊区选民中以18个百分点领先。
作为对比，2020年柯林斯在农村地区选民和无大学学位选民中分别领先18个百分点。
“本届选举周期共和党似乎在白人农村选民中处境艰难，缅因州也不例外，”肖说道。“共和党候选人迫切需要这些选民出来投票，还需要达到65比35的得票率，才能抵消民主党在城市地区的优势。”
党派忠诚度大致相当：两位候选人各自党派的忠实支持者中，九成都支持自己的候选人，而规模较小的无党派选民群体以13个百分点的优势支持柯林斯。杰克逊（92%）和柯林斯（90%）的支持者都高度确定会投票。
在缅因州州长选举中，民主党候选人汉娜·平格里以10个百分点的优势领先共和党候选人鲍比·查尔斯，支持率分别为49%和39%，而独立候选人里克·贝内特获得9%的支持率。
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与杰克逊的支持者几乎全体支持平格里（仅有8%倒戈）不同，近五分之一的柯林斯支持者（19%）会转投贝内特（11%）或平格里（8%）。
*本次民调于2026年10月16日至20日开展，由贝肯研究公司（民主党）和肖&公司研究公司（共和党）联合指导，福克斯新闻民调随机从全州选民档案中选取1689名缅因州登记选民进行访谈。受访者通过固定电话（226人）、手机（1035人）或在收到短信后在线完成调查（428人）。基于登记选民样本的抽样误差为±2个百分点，针对1514名可能选民的子样本抽样误差为±2.5个百分点。针对子群体结果的抽样误差更高。除抽样误差外，问题措辞和顺序也会影响调查结果。用于制定加权目标的数据来源包括最新的美国社区调查、福克斯新闻选民分析和选民档案数据。通常会对年龄、种族、教育程度和地区变量进行加权，以确保受访者的人口结构能够代表登记选民群体。可能选民基于概率统计模型得出，该模型依赖于过往投票记录、对当前选举的兴趣、投票意向、年龄、教育程度、种族、族裔和婚姻状况。仅当样本量至少达到N=100时，才会展示子群体结果。
福克斯新闻的维多利亚·巴拉拉为本报道撰稿。
作为民调部门负责人，达娜·布兰特顿负责福克斯新闻民调项目，并监督福克斯新闻选民分析选举调查。
Fox News Poll: Nail-biter in Maine Senate race
More than half of Maine voters strongly disapprove of the president’s job performance
October 22, 2026 6:00pm EDT / Fox News
By Dana Blanton Fox News
This tells you a lot about Troy Jackson’s stances, Sen Susan Collins says
Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, says she was struck by her opponent Troy Jackson’s ‘shut up’ comment on ‘Hannity.’
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Maine voters are in a negative mood this election season. Only 12% say their family is better off financially compared to two years ago, and more than 6 in 10 disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance, including 2 in 10 Republicans.
FOX NEWS POLL: TEXAS SENATE RACE GALLOPING TOWARD A PHOTO FINISH
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A Fox News survey of Maine likely voters finds that mood weighs on Republican Sen. Susan Collins, as 53% are concerned she votes with Trump too much. By contrast, 46% are concerned Democratic challenger Troy Jackson is too liberal.
FOX NEWS POLL: GENDER GAP AND POCKETBOOK PAIN SHAPE OHIO SENATE RACE
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Despite those views, the horse race shows the candidates tied, with Jackson and Collins at 49% apiece. All survey interviews were completed after the candidates’ Oct. 15 debate.
Collins, who first won her seat about three decades ago, is seeking a sixth term. She’s the only GOP senator running for re-election this year from a state Trump lost in 2024 (by 7 points). In 2020, Collins won by nearly 9 points.
Democrats view Maine as a must-win seat in their effort to take control of the Senate. When voters are asked about control of the U.S. Senate, 53% prefer a Democratic-led Senate vs. 45% who want the Republicans to remain in charge. While almost all Jackson supporters want Democratic control (96%), Collins supporters are more divided: 89% want a GOP-led chamber, but 9% prefer Democratic leadership.
Collins will need to overcome the energy on the left, as far more Democrats (79%) than Republicans (61%) say they are extremely interested in the election, which explains why Jackson is ahead by 16 points among that group. He’s up by 4 points among those who say they are “certain” to vote, and also carries the one in five Mainers who have already cast a ballot by a decisive 40 points. On the other hand, a slim majority plans to vote on Election Day, and they favor Collins by 12 points.
“Collins is no stranger to outrunning her party, but Democrats hold an 18-point enthusiasm advantage,” says Mikaela Linder of Beacon Research, a Democratic polling firm that conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican Daron Shaw. “Trump’s job rating is 25 points underwater, and a majority strongly disapproves of him. Jackson has an opening if he can carry that momentum beyond his base and across the finish line.”
Views of the president’s performance are a problem for GOP candidates in Maine. Currently, 37% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 62% disapprove, including 54% who strongly disapprove.
The candidates’ personal favorability ratings are both underwater. Views of Jackson are negative by 2 points (47% favorable, 49% unfavorable), and by 4 points for Collins (47%-51%).
Partisan vote choice varies distinctly across key groups. Voters under 45 favor Collins by 6 points, while those ages 45 and older prefer Jackson by 3. Women support Jackson by 5 points, while men back Collins by 4.
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The sharpest divide is education: Mainers with a college degree pick Jackson by 23 points, while Collins leads among those without a degree by 16.
Collins is ahead among those living in rural areas by 7 points, while Jackson is the pick of the smaller number of suburban voters by 18 points.
For comparison, in 2020, Collins won both the voters living in rural areas and those without a college degree by 18 points each.
“Republicans appear to be struggling with White rural voters this cycle, and Maine is no exception,” Shaw said. “GOP candidates desperately need these voters to show up, and need something like a 65-35 vote to overcome Democratic strength in urban areas.”
Party loyalty is roughly even as 9 in 10 of each candidate’s party faithful back them, and the small subgroup of independents favors Collins by 13 points. Both Jackson (92%) and Collins (90%) supporters have a high degree of vote certainty.
In Maine’s gubernatorial race, Democrat Hannah Pingree leads Republican Bobby Charles by 10 points, 49% to 39%, while independent candidate Rick Bennett takes 9%.
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Unlike Jackson, whose coalition backs Pingree almost unanimously (only 8% defect), nearly one in five Collins supporters (19%) peel off to either Bennett (11%) or Pingree (8%).
Conducted October 16-20, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,689 Maine registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (226) and cellphones (1,035) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (428). Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2 percentage points and for the subsample of 1,514 likely voters it is ±2.5 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, intention to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity, and marital status. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
As head of the polling unit, Dana Blanton runs the Fox News Poll and oversees the Fox News Voter Analysis election survey.
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