2026-10-22T09:00:15.419Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/22/politics/cnn-top-10-senate-races-most-likely-to-flip
随着11月选举临近，民主党对拿下美国参议院控制权的热情高涨，但这绝非板上钉钉的事。
根据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）由SSRS开展的最新民调，民主党在全国范围内国会选区选民支持率上领先共和党10个百分点。CNN的民调综合平均值显示，唐纳德·特朗普总统在美国成年人中的支持率为33%，而生活成本担忧——包括与伊朗战争带来的经济冲击——深深困扰着众多选民。
但今年参议院选举地图的“红色底色”不应被低估。特朗普2024年曾以两位数优势赢下这份榜单上多数竞争激烈的州，共和党也投入大量广告经费捍卫自身阵地。对中期选举最后两周的AdImpact数据复盘显示，针对这份榜单上的10个席位，两党已投入超过3亿美元的竞选广告资金。
堪萨斯州和新罕布什尔州在这份榜单上互换了位置，近期整体来看中西部地区的选情愈发胶着。我们还另外纳入了四个我们认为处于摇摆状态的州，它们可能在选举日带来意外结果。
我们对11月最易易主的席位排名基于CNN的报道，包括与参与参议院竞选的战略顾问的对话，以及我们对候选人筹款、民调数据和各州党派环境的分析。该排名仅反映当前选情，可能会随着中期选举季进入最后阶段发生变化。
北卡罗来纳州再次位居榜首，民主党前州长罗伊·库珀在民调中领先共和党候选人迈克尔·沃特利。根据AdImpact的数据，共和党已缩减在该州的竞选投入，共和党团体仅预留了250万美元用于最后两周的竞选活动，而民主党则预留了1320万美元。
没有任何一场中期选举的最后两周广告投入能超过俄亥俄州，两地合计剩余广告经费约7500万美元。CNN的民调综合平均值显示，民主党前参议员谢罗德·布朗以49%比44%的微弱优势领先共和党现任参议员乔恩·赫斯特德。这其中包括最近由SSRS开展的CNN民调，该民调显示布朗比赫斯特德更受选民熟知和认可，赫斯特德是被任命填补副总统JD·万斯空缺席位的。
和参议院整体格局一样，俄亥俄州也是特朗普以两位数优势赢下的州。但特朗普在该州的支持率极低，CNN民调显示仅有36%的可能选民认可他的执政表现。
布朗希望借助反特朗普情绪赢得11月的选举，并在广告中抓住共和党人的政治弱点，包括一则新电视广告抨击赫斯特德与数据中心和爱泼斯坦文件相关的问题。
特朗普正努力凝聚共和党基本盘，仅在本月就在俄亥俄州举办了两场竞选活动，还在毗邻辛辛那提的肯塔基州举办了一场。共和党有望在最后两周以约900万美元的优势超过民主党在该州的投入。
一个不确定因素：共和党州长候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米的竞选团队在选举最后时刻投放了一则广告，内容涉及对手失散多年的母亲。赫斯特德与该广告划清界限，告诉美联社：“我不会投放这样的广告。”
阿拉斯加州稳居第三位。民主党前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉似乎在与共和党现任参议员丹·沙利文的竞争中处于有利位置。
这个幅员辽阔、地处偏远的州的民调数据稀缺，但本月早些时候发布的《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院民调显示，佩尔托拉以7个百分点的优势领先沙利文。
两人上周进行了一场辩论。沙利文援引佩尔托拉虐待员工的指控质疑其人品，而这位民主党候选人则指责这位参议员撒谎和不诚实。
这场辩论也凸显了特朗普与伊朗的战争给共和党候选人带来的困境。沙利文表示这场战争“需要尽快结束”，因为其经济冲击已经影响到这个汽油价格居高不下的州。
4. 缅因州
共和党现任参议员苏珊·柯林斯正面临其职业生涯中最艰难的连任竞选之一，对手是民主党人特洛伊·杰克逊。
近期民调显示双方势均力敌，选情很大程度上取决于选民对总统和柯林斯的不满情绪。民主党认为，柯林斯在关键时刻未能坚决反对特朗普。她投票确认最高法院大法官布雷特·卡瓦诺，而后者后来加入推翻“罗伊诉韦德案”的多数派阵营，这使得堕胎权成为本次竞选的核心议题。
柯林斯是唯一一位在2024年副总统候选人卡玛拉·哈里斯获胜的州参选的共和党参议员。但柯林斯过去曾打破该州的左倾倾向，并以参议院拨款委员会主席的身份宣传她为缅因州带来的益处。周三，她与前西弗吉尼亚州参议员乔·曼钦共同开展竞选活动，曼钦已从民主党转投无党派阵营。
在最后两周，共和党预计将投入近1700万美元，而民主党投入约1400万美元。
民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科与共和党总检察长肯·帕克斯顿的竞选引发了本次中期选举周期中最受关注的关注之一。
CNN的民调综合平均值显示，塔拉里科与帕克斯顿的选情胶着，支持率分别为49%和47%。最新的福克斯新闻民调则显示双方打成平手。尽管多数民调显示该选区的支持率差距在误差范围内，但没有任何一项民调显示帕克斯顿领先。
自上一次排名更新以来，本次竞选最大的变化之一是：塔拉里科连续一周多未出现在竞选活动中，引发共和党人就其行踪散播的阴谋论。塔拉里科在CNN和禧年媒体的市政厅活动中澄清了此事，表示自己当时患了流感，并指责这种聚焦阴谋论的做法转移了选民对关键议题的注意力。
https://www.cnn.com/
塔拉里科解释近期缺席竞选活动的原因
2:09 • 来源：CNN
塔拉里科解释近期缺席竞选活动的原因
2:09
塔拉里科让这场竞选变得势均力敌的能力，以及帕克斯顿的政治包袱，让民主党人看到了终结该州32年来全州选举连败纪录的希望。但要做到这一点，塔拉里科必须在特朗普2024年以近14个百分点优势赢下的州获胜。
共和党为拯救帕克斯顿投入的巨额资金，在很大程度上由与科技亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克有关联的政治团体提供支持，这笔资金将持续到最后两周。共和党预计投入的资金将是民主党预留资金的三倍，即便如此大额的投入可能并未像共和党战略家所希望的那样削弱塔拉里科的支持率。
总体而言，共和党已为德克萨斯州参议院竞选的广告投入超过3.8亿美元，包括初选和大选——对于一个共和党长期占据主导地位的州来说，这是一个惊人的数字。
民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德与前众议员迈克·罗杰斯的竞选成为今年最激烈的对决之一。
CNN最新的民调综合平均值显示双方势均力敌，埃尔赛义德在可能选民中的平均支持率为49%，罗杰斯为47%。
“穆斯林兄弟会”成为本次竞选的争议焦点，共和党试图将埃尔赛义德描绘成对伊斯兰恐怖主义势力持同情态度的人。埃尔赛义德如果当选将成为美国首位穆斯林参议员，上周他在一场竞选活动的激烈交锋中谴责了穆斯林兄弟会，同时辩称自己被不公平地贴上了与约翰·F·肯尼迪和巴拉克·奥巴马前总统一样的“双重忠诚”标签。
https://www.cnn.com/
阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德回应有关穆斯林兄弟会问题的质疑
周六，密歇根州民主党参议院候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德回应了一名要求他谴责穆斯林兄弟会的与会者，称他“参选参议员，且恰好是穆斯林”。
2:21 • 来源：CNN
阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德回应有关穆斯林兄弟会问题的质疑
2:21
两位候选人都面临实际挑战。埃尔赛义德仍需争取在民主党初选中支持其对手的黑人选民，以及对其 candidacy 持怀疑态度的犹太民主党人。罗杰斯则要应对特朗普在该州的不受欢迎程度，最近的马里斯特民调显示，44%的可能选民表示他们的投票主要是反对特朗普。
但共和党预计在最后两周的投入将几乎是民主党的两倍，约2720万美元对1500万美元。
特朗普将于周日在位于加拿大边境的休伦港为该州的竞选活动造势，而奥巴马将于周六与埃尔赛义德一同出席底特律的集会，这可能有助于争取黑人选民。
密歇根州是民主党拿下参议院多数席位的关键，这场竞选远未到尘埃落定的时候。如果埃尔赛义德失利，民主党将需要至少拿下5个共和党掌控的席位，其中许多位于特朗普2024年以两位数优势赢下的州。
CNN的民调综合平均值显示双方势均力敌，民主党人乔希·图雷克支持率为47%，共和党人阿什利·希金森为46%。上个月由SSRS开展的CNN民调显示，可能选民更倾向于共和党掌控参议院（53%对46%）。
特朗普2024年以两位数优势赢下该州，他在该州的支持率为41%，高于全国平均水平。但经济逆风仍是选情的关键因素。该州约四分之三的民众表示，总统的政策推高了生活成本。
图雷克可能会受益于民主党州长候选人罗布·桑德的出色表现，桑德在民调中领先其共和党对手。
共和党预计在爱荷华州投入约2350万美元，民主党投入接近3000万美元。
堪萨斯州排名上升一位至第8位，共和党正努力挽救这个94年来从未选出过民主党参议员的州的席位。
民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿与共和党现任参议员罗杰·马歇尔展开了激烈的竞争。上个月的《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院民调显示两人支持率持平。
汉密尔顿是一位卫理公会大型教堂的牧师，自称“思想独立的民主党人”，在特朗普2024年以16个百分点优势赢下的州，他需要获得共和党选民的支持。身为医生的马歇尔正面临选民对经济和伊朗战争的不满，同时还因《纽约时报》的一篇报道引发 backlash，该报道披露他起诉数百名患者追讨未付医疗账单的策略。
两党都在向这个选举周期开始时几乎没人认为会有竞争的州投入大量资源，双方在过去两周的预留资金都超过了1100万美元。
从政党资源转移的迹象来看，共和党在此期间在堪萨斯州的投入将超过佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州的总和。特朗普本周还与马歇尔一同在该州开展竞选活动，将这场竞选描述为在“激进”民主党人——他们将摧毁美国——与延续他自称的“黄金时代”之间做出选择。
新罕布什尔州排名下降一位，民主党众议员克里斯·帕帕斯在与共和党前参议员约翰·苏努努的竞争中似乎更加稳固。
9月份开展的新罕布什尔大学民调显示，帕帕斯以8个百分点的优势领先苏努努，而《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院的民调则显示该选区的支持率差距在误差范围内。
帮助帕帕斯的一个因素是特朗普在该州的不受欢迎程度，《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院的民调显示他的支持率为38%。尽管苏努努的对手试图将他与特朗普联系起来，但苏努努甚至在本周发布了一则电视广告与总统划清界限，称“我甚至从未见过这个人”。
帕帕斯得到了多位知名民主党人的支持，包括即将到访的哈里斯，哈里斯2024年在该州以3个百分点的优势获胜。
佐治亚州位居本次易主可能性最大的摇摆州榜单末尾，民主党现任参议员乔恩·奥索夫似乎已经锁定了特朗普2024年赢下的这个州。由佐治亚大学开展的《亚特兰大宪法报》民调显示，奥索夫以48%对40%的8个百分点优势领先共和党众议员迈克·柯林斯。
甚至可以说该州应该完全从这份榜单中移除。但佐治亚州从榜单一开始就被纳入排名。它如今的低排名反映了共和党在本次选举周期初期为数不多的进攻性目标中错失的机会。
上述榜单涵盖了许多可能决定中期选举结果的摇摆州。但还有另一层级的摇摆州，各种因素可能导致选举日出现意外翻盘。以下是我们在最后阶段关注的州——中西部两个，南部两个：
共和党现任参议员皮特·里基茨与独立候选人丹·奥斯本展开对决，奥斯本曾在2024年参选参议院但未成功。内布拉斯加州是另一个特朗普2024年赢下的中西部州，如今正受特朗普对伊战争带来的经济冲击影响。共和党预计在最后几周投入1000万美元，而奥斯本及其盟友投入近600万美元。
共和党现任参议员达琳·格雷厄姆与儿科医生民主党人安妮·安德鲁斯展开角逐，争夺因已故兄长参议员林赛·格雷厄姆空出的席位完成完整任期。达琳·格雷厄姆参选时几乎没有自身的政治经验，共和党已派出援军防止该席位落入民主党之手。共和党关联的参议院领导力基金预留了500万美元用于最后两周的广告投放，特朗普本周还在这个“棕榈州”开展了竞选活动。该州近30年来从未选出过民主党参议员。
明尼苏达州在本次选举中基本未受关注，但共和党获胜可能会悄悄打乱民主党守住这个蓝营席位的努力。民主党副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根与共和党人米歇尔·塔福亚展开对决，后者曾是体育广播员，后来成为保守派活动人士。共和党认为该州的福利欺诈丑闻对弗拉纳根不利。但共和党尚未投入大量资金来改变该州的选情，而弗拉纳根可能会受益于民主党参议员艾米·克洛布查尔在州长选举中的参选。
密西西比州是民主党认为可能出现转机的另一个南部州，其候选人斯科特·科洛姆挑战共和党现任参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯。科洛姆的盟友认为，共和党面临的政治逆风以及该州35%的黑人选民比例可能对他们有利。民主党关联的参议院多数党基金本周宣布投入120万美元开展广告宣传，哈里斯预计将于周四与科洛姆一同出席活动。在一则引发热议的广告中，科洛姆的竞选团队嘲讽海德-史密斯在被问及牛肉价格上涨时发表的“有这么多蛋白质可供选择”的言论。
该州仍是特朗普以23个百分点优势赢下的州，对民主党来说仍是一场硬仗。但有一个迹象显示其可能具有竞争力：总统计划周一在密西西比州开展竞选活动。
The top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip, less than two weeks before the midterms
2026-10-22T09:00:15.419Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/22/politics/cnn-top-10-senate-races-most-likely-to-flip
With the November election in sight, Democratic excitement about the party winning control of the US Senate is running high, but it’s far from a sure bet.
Democrats have a 10-point advantage over Republicans nationwide in voters’ choice in their own congressional district, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. President Donald Trump’s approval rating sits at 33% among US adults, the CNN Poll of Polls average shows, and cost-of-living concerns, including the economic fallout from the war with Iran, weigh heavily on many voters’ minds.
But the red makeup of this year’s Senate map should not be underestimated. Trump won many of the most competitive states on this list in 2024 by double digits, and Republicans are dedicating large sums for advertising to defend their turf. A review of AdImpact data for the final two weeks of the midterms shows more than $300 million pouring into races from both sides for the 10 seats on this list.
Kansas and New Hampshire have switched spots on this list as the Midwest as a whole grows more competitive in recent weeks. We also included four other states we consider to be on the bubble, offering potential surprises on Election Day.
Our ranking of the seats most likely to flip in November is based on CNN reporting, including conversations with strategists involved in Senate races, as well as our analysis of candidate fundraising, polling and the partisan environment in the states. The rankings are a snapshot of where the contests stand at this point and can shift as the midterm election season enters its final days.
North Carolina once again sits atop the list, as Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper is leading in polls over GOP candidate Michael Whatley. Republicans have pulled back on their spending in the race with GOP groups reserving only $2.5 million for the final two weeks of the campaign compared to the $13.2 million from Democrats, according to AdImpact data.
No midterms contest is expected to see more ad spending over the final two weeks of the election than Ohio, with about $75 million combined remaining. A CNN Poll of Polls average shows Democrat Sherrod Brown, a former senator, with a narrow advantage over Republican Sen. Jon Husted, 49% to 44%. That includes a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS that showed Brown is more well-known and better viewed than Husted, who was appointed to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance.
Like much of the Senate landscape, Ohio is a state Trump won by double digits. But the president is deeply underwater in the state, with only 36% of likely voters approving of his performance, the CNN poll found.
Brown is hoping to ride anti-Trump sentiment into November and is seizing on political vulnerabilities for Republicans in his ads, including a new TV spot knocking Husted over data centers and the Epstein files.
Trump is working to rally the GOP base, holding two events in Ohio and another in neighboring Kentucky, which borders Cincinnati, just this month. Republicans are on track to outspend Democrats here in the final two weeks by about $9 million.
One wildcard: An 11th-hour ad from Republican gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign featuring his opponent’s estranged mother. Husted distanced himself from the video, telling The Associated Press, “I would not have run that ad.”
Alaska keeps its spot at No. 3. Democrat Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman, appears to be in a strong position against Republican GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan.
Polling in the large, remote state has been sparse, but a New York Times/Siena poll released earlier this month showed Peltola up 7 points over Sullivan.
The two candidates clashed in a debate last week. Sullivan questioned Peltola’s character as he cited allegations that she mistreated her staff, while the Democrat accused the senator of lying and dishonesty.
The debate also highlighted the difficult position Trump’s war with Iran has created for GOP candidates. Sullivan said the war “needs to end soon” as the economic fallout has hit the state, where gas prices are particularly high.
4. Maine
Republican Sen. Susan Collins is locked in one of her toughest reelection bids yet against Democrat Troy Jackson.
Recent polling has shown no clear leader, but much of the race hinges on frustration with the president and Collins, who Democrats argue doesn’t stand up to Trump when it matters most. Her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who later joined the majority that overturned Roe v. Wade, has made abortion rights an issue in this contest.
Collins is the only Republican senator running in a state won by former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. But Collins has defied her state’s leftward lean in the past and promoted the benefits she’s brought to Maine as chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. On Wednesday, she campaigned with former West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, who switched his party affiliation from Democrat to independent.
In the final two weeks, Republicans are on track to spend nearly $17 million, compared to about $14 million from Democrats.
The race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is generating some of the biggest attention of this midterm cycle.
A CNN Poll of Polls average in the Senate race shows a tight race between Talarico and Paxton, 49% to 47%. The new Fox News poll finds a tied contest there. While most of the surveys included show the race within the margin of error, none have found an advantage for Paxton.
One of the biggest developments in this race since the last rankings: A frenzy over Talarico’s more than weeklong absence from the campaign trail, sparking conspiracy theories promoted by Republicans about his whereabouts. Talarico set the record straight in a CNN and Jubilee Media town hall, saying he had the flu and calling the conspiratorial focus a distraction from the issues that matter to voters.
https://www.cnn.com/
Talarico explains recent absence from campaign trail
2:09 • Source: CNN
Talarico explains recent absence from campaign trail
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Talarico’s ability to make this race so competitive and Paxton’s political baggage are giving Democrats hope they finally might break their 32-year losing streak in statewide races. But to do so, Talarico must still win in a state Trump carried by nearly 14 points in 2024.
The GOP’s money bomb to save Paxton, fueled in large part by political groups linked to tech billionaire Elon Musk, will continue into the final two weeks. Republicans are set to spend three times what Democrats have reserved, even if the massive amount of spending may not be dinging Talarico’s standing as much as Republican strategists had hoped.
All told, Republicans are set to spend more than $380 million on ads for the Senate race in Texas, including the primary and the general election – a staggering total for a state that the GOP has dominated.
The race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and former Rep. Mike Rogers has become one of the most contentious matchups of the year.
A new CNN Poll of Polls average showed no clear leader, with El-Sayed at an average of 49% among likely voters and Rogers at an average of 47%.
The Muslim Brotherhood has emerged as a flashpoint in the campaign as Republicans attempt to cast El-Sayed as sympathetic to the interests of Islamic terror. El-Sayed, who would become the first Muslim senator if elected, last weekend denounced the Muslim Brotherhood in a heated exchange at a campaign event while also arguing he’s been unfairly accused of the same “dual loyalties” that former Presidents John F. Kennedy and Barack Obama were.
https://www.cnn.com/
Abdul El-Sayed challenges assumptions behind Muslim Brotherhood question
On Saturday, Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed responded to an attendee who asked him to disavow the Muslim Brotherhood, saying he’s “running for Senate and happens to be Muslim.”
2:21 • Source: CNN
Abdul El-Sayed challenges assumptions behind …
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Both candidates are facing real challenges. El-Sayed still needs to win over Black voters who sided with his opponent in the Democratic primary and Jewish Democrats skeptical of his candidacy. Rogers is grappling with Trump’s unpopularity in the state, as a recent Marist survey showed 44% of likely voters viewed their decision as mainly against Trump.
But Republicans are set to outspend Democrats by almost double over the final two weeks, about $27.2 million to $15 million.
Trump will campaign in the state on Sunday in Port Huron, across the border from Canada, while Obama will appear with El-Sayed for a Detroit rally Saturday that could help with Black voters.
Michigan is key to Democrats’ path to the Senate majority, and this race feels far from settled. If El-Sayed loses, it would require Democrats to win at least five Republican-held seats, many in states Trump won by double digits in 2024.
A CNN Poll of Polls average shows no clear leader here, with Democrat Josh Turek polling at 47% and Republican Ashley Hinson at 46%. A CNN poll conducted by SSRS last month found likely voters favored a Republican-controlled Senate (53% to 46%).
Trump won the state by double digits in 2024, and his approval rating in the state stands at 41%, higher than the national average. But economic headwinds are playing heavily in the race. About three-quarters of people in the state say the president’s policies have increased the cost of living.
Turek could benefit from a strong performance by the Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, who has led his GOP opponent in polls.
Republicans are set to spend about $23.5 million in Iowa and Democrats close to $30 million.
Kansas moves up one spot to No. 8 as Republicans race to save this seat in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator in 94 years.
Democrat Adam Hamilton is running a competitive race against GOP Sen. Roger Marshall. A NYT/Siena poll last month showed the two candidates tied.
Hamilton, a Methodist megachurch pastor, describes himself as an “independent-minded Democrat” and would need the support of Republican voters in a state Trump carried by 16 points in 2024. Marshall, a doctor, is contending with voter frustration on the economy and the Iran war while facing backlash over a New York Times report detailing his tactic of suing hundreds of patients for outstanding medical bills.
Both parties are surging resources to the state few envisioned would be in play at the start of the cycle, each party with more than $11 million booked over the last two weeks.
In a sign of the party’s shifting resources, the GOP is set to spend more in Kansas during this period than in Georgia and North Carolina combined. And Trump campaigned with Marshall in the state this week, casting the race as a choice between “radical” Democrats who will destroy America and a continuation of his self-described “golden age.”
New Hampshire moves down one spot as Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas appears on more stable ground in his contest against GOP former Sen. John Sununu.
A University of New Hampshire poll conducted in September showed Pappas up 8 points over Sununu while a NYT/Siena survey showed the race within the margin of error.
One factor aiding Pappas is Trump’s unpopularity in the state as the NYT/Siena poll showed his approval rating at 38%. While his opponent works to link him to Trump, Sununu has gone as far as releasing a TV ad this week distancing himself from the president, saying “I’ve never even met the man.”
Pappas has embraced high-profile Democrats campaigning on his behalf, including an upcoming visit from Harris, who won the state by 3 points in 2024.
Georgia sits at the bottom of the battleground states most likely to flip in November as Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff appears to have a lock on the state Trump won in 2024. An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll conducted by the University of Georgia found Ossoff with an 8-point lead over Republican Rep. Mike Collins, 48% to 40%.
It could be argued that the state should move off this list entirely. But Georgia was included in the rankings from the beginning. Its low position now reflects the GOP’s lost opportunity in one of their few offensive targets outlined at the start of the cycle.
The list above includes many toss-up states that could determine the midterm election. But there is another tier of states on the bubble where a variety of factors could cause a surprise upset on Election Day. Here are those states – two in the Midwest and two in the South – that we’re watching in the final stretch:
GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts is facing off against Dan Osborn, an independent candidate who unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2024. Nebraska is another midwestern state Trump won in 2024 that is now feeling the economic pinch from Trump’s war with Iran. Republicans are set to spend $10 million in the final weeks compared to nearly $6 million from Osborn and his allies.
Republican Sen. Darline Graham is running against Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, for a full term after being appointed to her late brother Sen. Lindsey Graham’s seat. Darline Graham entered the race with little political experience of her own, and the GOP has sent in reinforcements to prevent this seat from moving toward Democrats. The GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has allotted $5 million for ads in the final two weeks, and Trump campaigned in the Palmetto State on Wednesday. Voters have not elected a Democratic senator in the state in nearly three decades.
Minnesota has largely flown under the radar in this election, but a GOP win has the potential to sneak up on Democrats’ efforts to hold this blue seat. Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is facing off against Republican Michele Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster turned conservative activist. The GOP feels the state’s welfare fraud scandal hurts Flanagan. But Republicans have not spent substantive money to try to move the needle in the race, and Flanagan could be aided by Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s appearance on the ballot in the governor’s race.
Mississippi is another southern state Democrats believe could end up in play with their nominee, Scott Colom, challenging GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. Colom’s allies argue the GOP’s political headwinds and the state’s sizable percentage of Black voters (35%) could work in their favor. The Democrat-aligned Senate Majority PAC announced a $1.2 million ad campaign this week and Harris is expected to join Colom on Thursday. In one buzzy ad, Colom’s campaign mocked Hyde-Smith for a comment suggesting there are “so many proteins to choose from” when asked about rising beef prices.
This is still a state Trump won by 23 points, making it an uphill battle for Democrats. But in one sign of its potential competitiveness, the president plans to campaign in Mississippi on Monday.
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