变革诉求与反特朗普情绪助推民主党中期选举优势：CNN民调

Desire for change, anti-Trump feelings fuel Democrats’ midterms advantage: CNN poll

2026-10-21T08:00:45.094Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/21/politics/cnn-poll-trump-democrats-republicans-midterms

The Democratic Party, riding a tide of anti-Donald Trump sentiment, enters the final stretch of the midterm campaign with a 10-point advantage over Republicans nationwide in voters’ choice in their own congressional district, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

More than three-quarters of voters see this election as their chance to change things up in Washington, the poll finds. Trump’s approval rating stands at a record low of 32%, and voters express broad dissatisfaction with both the economy and the state of the country nearly two years into unified GOP control of the federal government. Those sentiments work against the GOP in its effort to hold on to Congress, even as some voters express skepticism that a Democratic win would bring meaningful improvement.

Democrats’ 49% to 39% advantage among registered voters nationally is the largest in CNN polling since just before the 2020 election, and rests on wide margins among traditional pillars of Democratic support such as Black voters (who favor the Democrats by 70 percentage points), Latino voters (+40), women (+21) and younger adults (+31), as well as a steep advantage among independents (+15) and those who say they’re extremely motivated to vote (+18).

Even with those broad advantages, the scale of the Democratic Party’s potential gains could be limited by mid-decade redistricting and the large number of competitive races in GOP-friendly territory. Should a 10-point margin in favor of the Democrats materialize in the nationwide popular vote, that would represent roughly a 13-point swing from the nationwide popular vote for House in 2024. But even a swing that large may not ultimately translate into deep-red pickups for the party, as many of this year’s competitive campaigns are playing out in places that Trump carried by double digits.

The Democratic upper-hand has held over the past year, and the margin has widened in recent polling as cost-of-living concerns remain voters’ most important issue and Trump’s approval rating lands at historic lows in poll after poll. Roughly 6 in 10 voters this year say their midterm vote will be sending a message about Trump, and by a 2-to-1 margin, that’s a message of opposition rather than support.

Democrats top Republicans 46% to 37% among registered voters who call the economy their top concern, and Democrats are seen as the party better able to deal with the economy and cost of living. But roughly 3 in 10 overall say they think neither party would do a good job handling those issues, and a similar share say neither party has the right priorities.

Behind economic concerns, corruption in the government (19%) and the state of US democracy (18%) are the only other issues cited by more than 10% of voters as their top concern. About 4 in 10 voters say that neither party would do a better job handling corruption, with those who do have a preference giving a slight edge to the Democrats.

Trump faces different landscape from first term

Trump’s approval rating in the poll is a new low by one point, and 7 points lower than his approval rating just before the 2018 midterms. The share who strongly approve of his presidency stands at just 13%, down 17 points from Trump’s last midterms.

Americans are judging Trump’s performance against a political landscape that looks very different than it did eight years ago. In the autumn of 2018, a 55% majority of the public said things in the US were generally going well, and 69% called economic conditions good. Weeks before the 2026 midterms, those numbers stand at 30% and 26%, respectively.

And while in 2018, the economy was a bright spot for Trump – most approved of his handling of the issue, even while his ratings stood underwater overall – it’s now the factor most weighing him down.

Trump’s approval ratings on economic issues are lower than his rating overall, with 27% approving on the economy and just 23% on inflation. Two-thirds of Americans, including roughly one-third of Republicans, say that his policies have made economic conditions worse. And even as majorities say that Trump has gone too far in using his presidential power and overseeing deportations, nearly 7 in 10 say he has not gone far enough in trying to reduce prices.

Democratic opposition to Trump, of course, was potent even in the brighter environment of 2018. But the survey suggests it’s the collapse in economic sentiment that’s further eroded Trump’s base throughout his second term in office, leaving him in his most precarious position to date. Trump’s approval rating among Republicans hits a new numeric low in the poll at 74%, down from 88% in February 2025.

Younger Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are particularly sour on Trump’s presidency and the state of the country. Nearly 4 in 10 Republican-aligned adults younger than 45 disapprove of Trump. They also rate Trump roughly 20 points worse than older Republicans on the economy, inflation and the way he sets priorities. Although younger voters are generally less motivated to vote than older ones, the gap is particularly large on the Republican side: There’s a 29-point gap in strong motivation to vote between younger and older Republican-aligned adults, compared with a 15-point gap on the Democratic side.

Trump’s support has also eroded among White Americans without college degrees, a group that has formed a core part of the president’s Republican base. Trump’s approval is underwater among the group: 45% approve, down from 63% at the start of his second term. And strong disapproval is now almost double strong approval among this group (40% to 22%).

That negativity appears tied to economic concerns. While a majority of White adults without degrees still approve of Trump’s handling of immigration (53%) and voting rights and election integrity (55%), 64% now disapprove of his handling of the economy and 68% disapprove on inflation.

Amid all the negativity about Trump, though, a sizable share of voters say they don’t think the country would be better off if Democrats won control of Congress either. In the new poll, 41% of voters say the country would be better off should Democrats win in November, 37% that it would be worse off and 22% say it wouldn’t make any difference. The sense that a change in power in Congress wouldn’t move the needle for the country is notably high among independent voters (36% feel that way), Latino voters (29%) and political moderates (29%).

Both parties continue to have net negative favorability ratings. The 18% of voters who hold negative views of both parties break 48% for the Democrat in their district to 28% for the Republican, with 18% saying they don’t support either party’s candidate. This group overwhelmingly says their votes are about changing things in Washington (90%) but largely sees neither party as able to do a better job of bringing it (65%).

Roughly half of registered voters in the poll say they plan to vote on Election Day, with the rest planning to vote early or by mail; about 13% overall say they have already cast their ballot.

Those who’ve already voted break overwhelmingly for Democrats – 70% to 29%. Those who have yet to cast a ballot and will be the focus of the final days of campaigning are much more closely divided: 46% favor the Democrat in their district to 41% who favor the Republican.

CNN’s Isabelle LaBianco and Katie Doran contributed to this report.

The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from October 15-18 among a random national sample of 1,701 US adults drawn from a probability-based panel, including 1,206 registered voters. Surveys were either conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points; it is 3.3 points among registered voters.