不到四分之一的农村选民认为经济状况良好，令美国腹地的选情岌岌可危
2026年10月20日 美国东部时间上午9:00 / 福克斯新闻
作者：雷米·努马 福克斯新闻
中期选举前国会选战胶着
比尔·赫默剖析最新一期福克斯新闻实力排名：国会选战胶着，候选人在中期选举前互相攻击。
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本世纪以来，共和党经历了不少成败各异的选举之夜，但他们通常可以指望腹地选民的支持。
曾经政见大致均衡的农村选民在过去二十年里大幅倒向共和党。2024年大选，近三分之二的农村选民支持特朗普总统。
共和党面临中期选举的严峻逆风。六大因素或助其逆势而为。
福克斯新闻实力排名之农村选民（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
如今，仅有不到一半的农村选民表示会在11月再次支持共和党。
和其他选民群体一样，美国农村民众也在为支付账单发愁。在最近的一项调查中，19%的受访者表示生活成本上涨是他们面临的最大经济问题，汽油和能源成本紧随其后。
福克斯新闻实力排名之农村选民（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
特朗普政府曾部分试图通过谈论就业增长和人工智能产业繁荣来缓解这些焦虑，但农村选民对这些议题也感到不满。
不到四分之一的农村选民认为经济状况良好，失业是焦点问题：8%的受访者将缺乏工作机会和失业列为最大经济难题，仅有28%的人认为所在社区存在良好或优秀的就业机会。
大卫·马库斯：直击美国中部，四大议题将决定参议院控制权，无一涉及经济负担
福克斯新闻实力排名之农村选民（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
数据中心也是影响选情的因素之一。仅有2%的受访者将其列为最大经济问题，但这个数字的实际影响更大。每50名农村选民中就有1人认为数据中心是比住房、生活成本或就业更严重的问题。
这些因素让共和党在全国范围内陷入困境。
福克斯新闻实力排名之参议院预测（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
这也是俄亥俄州和艾奥瓦州等腹地州今年大部分时间选情胶着的原因，也是更多共和党优势明显的选区——包括一些特朗普以两位数优势胜出的选区——正在变成胜负仅一线之隔的竞选的原因。
福克斯新闻实力排名之农村选民（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
即便抛开民调数据，也有迹象表明农村票仓的基础正在动摇。怀俄明州的电视观众本周将看到共和党候选人查克·格雷的竞选广告，其中完全没有提及特朗普或共和党。两年前，特朗普在该州拿下了71.6%的选票——这是他在任何选举中任何州的最佳表现。
农村选民投票率低迷或政党立场转变，将让包括佛罗里达州、密西西比州和南卡罗来纳州在内的多场竞选变得比共和党希望的更加胶着。
有四个州值得特别关注，因为它们还有另一个复杂因素。
特朗普阵营的保守派人士从拥挤的初选中脱颖而出，将决定怀俄明州唯一的众议院席位归属
福克斯新闻实力排名之参议院预测（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
今年，在四个农村人口占比极高的州，知名独立候选人将与共和党候选人角逐参议院席位：爱达荷州、蒙大拿州、内布拉斯加州和南达科他州。
他们主张国会任期限制和游说禁令等反建制政策，并将重点放在腐败问题上——这是上周福克斯新闻民调中选民最关心的议题。
这四名独立候选人都表示，如果当选，他们不会加入任何一个政党的党团会议，或者将组建自己的独立党团。
由于民主党在全国范围内的品牌形象仍相对疲软，在这些州更是糟糕，该党已经完全退出了其中三个州的竞选（蒙大拿州仍有一名民主党候选人参选，但支持率已下滑）。
通常情况下，在这种情况下感到不满的党派支持者会选择待在家里，让现任执政党以较小优势获胜。但今年，这些选民有机会转而支持其他候选人，因此竞选优势可能会进一步缩小。
福克斯新闻实力排名：众议院易主，参议院仍存悬念
福克斯新闻实力排名之农村选民（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
过去十年左右，这些州的选情一直处于胶着状态。民主党前参议员乔恩·泰斯特2018年在蒙大拿州成功连任；共和党在南达科他州和内布拉斯加州以微弱优势胜出（今年该州再次出现同一名独立候选人参选），就连爱达荷州2014年的州长选举也仅以15个百分点的差距分出胜负。
这些州的竞选今年可能又会势均力敌。
福克斯新闻实力排名之州长竞选预测（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
在本周的实力排名中，随着竞选活动进入最后两周，两场州长竞选的竞争变得更加激烈。
佛罗里达州
这个“阳光之州”是“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动的核心地带。特朗普和州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯每次参选得票率都有所提升，后者上一次连任州长时以近20个百分点的优势获胜。
福克斯新闻实力排名之州长竞选预测（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
得益于这些表现，共和党已经建立了结构性优势，包括150万的登记选民差距，以及高效的动员投票机制。
但德桑蒂斯首次当选州长时，优势仅约3万票（即0.4个百分点），当时的选举环境与如今颇为相似。
福克斯新闻实力排名之西班牙裔选民（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
在这场竞选中，西班牙裔选民将发挥远超其比例的作用。民调显示，他们当中很大一部分人已经转向反对共和党。在上周的福克斯全国民调中，31%的西班牙裔选民表示更支持共和党候选人，这比他们2024年对特朗普的支持率下降了12个百分点。
共和党候选人、众议员拜伦·唐纳兹将对德桑蒂斯的背书感到高兴，后者在该州仍颇具人气。唐纳兹目前仍领先民主党候选人、前众议员戴维·乔利。戴维·乔利希望前总统比尔·克林顿今日首次同台时能为他拉票。
尽管如此，这场竞选对共和党来说并非稳操胜券。佛罗里达州的评级从“共和党大概率获胜”下调至“共和党小幅领先”。
内布拉斯加州
在内布拉斯加州，共和党州长吉姆·皮伦寻求连任。他首次当选时以23个百分点的优势轻松获胜，但由于郊区和农村选民今年对特朗普的态度摇摆不定，这次竞选可能会更加艰难。
福克斯新闻实力排名之州长竞选预测（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
另有三个因素也在发挥作用。
首先，丹·奥斯本——今年参议院竞选中四位知名独立候选人之一——的参选，可能会提高民主党挑战者林恩·瓦尔茨的投票率，而这场州长竞选原本关注度较低。
其次是皮伦本人，他因州政府5%的预算削减和招聘冻结遭到了一些当地的反对。
点击此处下载福克斯新闻APP
最后是 ballot上的第三方候选人布雷特·林德斯特伦，他是前州议员，四年前在共和党初选中输给了皮伦。他将以“美国优先”党候选人的身份参选。该党于今年7月成立。
雷米·努马是政治顾问兼福克斯新闻撰稿人。您可以在X平台关注他：@remynuma。
Fox News Power Rankings: Trump country at a crossroads
Less than a quarter of rural voters say the economy is in good shape, putting heartland races on shaky ground
October 20, 2026 9:00am EDT / Fox News
By Rémy Numa Fox News
Congressional races tighten ahead of midterm elections
Bill Hemmer breaks down the latest Fox News Power Rankings as congressional races tighten and candidates trade jabs ahead of midterms.
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Republicans have had their share of good and bad election nights this century, but they’ve usually been able to count on the heartland.
Once evenly divided, rural voters have become substantially more Republican over the last two decades. Nearly two-thirds of these voters backed President Trump in the 2024 election.
REPUBLICANS FACE BRUTAL MIDTERM HEADWINDS. SIX FORCES COULD HELP THEM DEFY HISTORY.
Fox News Power Rankings on rural voters.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Today, just under half of rural voters say they’ll support the GOP again in November.
Like other groups, rural Americans are concerned about paying the bills. Nineteen percent said the rising cost of living is their biggest economic problem in a recent survey, with gas and energy costs not far behind.
Fox News Power Rankings on rural voters.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
The Trump administration has, in part, tried to counter those anxieties by talking about job growth and the AI boom, but rural voters are frustrated about those issues too.
Less than a quarter of rural voters say the economy is in good shape, and unemployment is a focal point: 8% called a lack of jobs and unemployment their biggest economic issue, and only 28% thought there were good or excellent job opportunities in their communities.
DAVID MARCUS: ON THE GROUND IN MIDDLE AMERICA, FOUR ISSUES WILL DECIDE THE SENATE, AND NONE ARE AFFORDABILITY
Fox News Power Rankings on rural voters.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Data centers are part of the story too. Only 2% called it their biggest economic problem, but that number is larger than it seems. For 1 in 50 rural voters, data centers are a bigger problem than housing, the cost of living, or getting a job.
These factors have put the Republicans in a tough spot all over the map.
Fox News Power Rankings Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
They are a reason why heartland states like Ohio and Iowa have been competitive most of the year and why more rural districts, including some that Trump won by double digits, are becoming margin-of-error races.
Fox News Power Rankings on rural voters.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Even setting the polls aside, there are signs that the rural vote is on shakier footing. TV viewers in Wyoming will see ads this week for Republican candidate Chuck Gray that don’t mention Trump or the GOP. Two years ago, Trump won 71.6% of the vote there — his best performance in any state, in any election.
Low rural turnout or party switching would make many races closer than the GOP would like, including in Florida, Mississippi and South Carolina.
Four states are worth singling out thanks to another complicating factor.
TRUMP-ALIGNED CONSERVATIVE EMERGES FROM CROWDED PRIMARY TO DECIDE WHO FILLS WYOMING’S LONE HOUSE SEAT
Fox News Power Rankings Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
This year, prominent independent candidates are running for Senate against a Republican in four rural-heavy states: Idaho, Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota.
They are pushing anti-establishment policies like congressional term limits and lobbying bans and have a heavy focus on corruption, the top voter concern in last week’s Fox News poll.
And all four say they won’t caucus with either party or would form their own independent caucus if they were elected.
With the Democratic brand still relatively weak around the country and abysmal in these states, the party has stepped out of the race entirely in three of the four (in Montana, a Democrat is staying on the ballot, though support for her has declined).
Normally, frustrated partisans stay home in scenarios like these, leaving the incumbent party to win by a more modest margin. This year, those voters have the ability to turn out for a different candidate, so the margin may get narrower.
FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: AS THE HOUSE FALLS, THE SENATE STAYS IN PLAY
Fox News Power Rankings on rural voters.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
All these states have been competitive over the last decade or so. Former Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat, held on to his seat in Montana in 2018; Republicans have scored single-digit victories in South Dakota and Nebraska (where the same independent is running again this year), and even Idaho had a gubernatorial race that came within 15 points back in 2014.
These states could be close again.
Fox News Power Rankings gubernatorial forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
In this week’s Power Rankings, two gubernatorial races get more competitive as the final two weeks of campaigning begin.
Florida
The Sunshine State is the beating heart of the “MAGA” movement. Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis have posted stronger results each time they’ve run, with the latter winning his last re-election bid by nearly 20 points.
Fox News Power Rankings gubernatorial forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Thanks in part to those performances, Republicans have carved out structural advantages, including a 1.5 million registered voter gap and a resilient get-out-the-vote operation.
But DeSantis’ first win came within around 30,000 votes (or 0.4 points) and in a similar environment to the one we’re in now.
Fox News Power Rankings on Hispanic voters.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Here, Hispanic voters will play an outsized role, and polls suggest that a large chunk of them have shifted away from the GOP. In last week’s national Fox survey, 31% of Hispanic voters said they preferred the Republican candidate over the Democrat. That’s down 12 points from their support for Trump in 2024.
The Republican candidate, Rep. Byron Donalds, will be pleased to have the endorsement of DeSantis. He remains popular in the state. Donalds still has the edge against Democrat and former Rep. David Jolly, who is hoping former President Bill Clinton can shore up his support when they appear together for the first time today.
Still, this race is no sure thing for the GOP. Florida moves from Likely R to Lean R.
Nebraska
In Nebraska, Republican Gov. Jim Pillen is looking for a second term in office. He cruised to victory the first time with a 23-point win, but with both suburban and rural voters wavering on Trump this cycle, this could be a tougher battle.
Fox News Power Rankings on the gubernatorial forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Three other factors are playing a role.
First, the presence of Dan Osborn, one of the four notable independents on the ballot in Senate races this year, could boost Democratic turnout for challenger Lynne Walz in a governor’s race that would otherwise attract less attention.
There’s Pillen himself, who has faced some local pushback over a 5% budget cut and hiring freeze within state government.
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Finally, the ballot, which will feature third-party challenger Brett Lindstrom, a former state lawmaker who lost to Pillen in a Republican primary four years prior. He’ll appear on the ballot as an “America First” candidate. The party was founded in July.
Rémy Numa is a political consultant and Fox News contributor. You can follow him on X: @remynuma.
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