2026年10月18日 / 美国东部时间上午9:02 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
作者：珍妮弗·德平托、弗雷德·巴克斯
得州参议院选举竞争激烈——基本处于平局——如今一切都取决于……投票率。
共和党人肯·帕克斯顿得益于该州整体的共和党倾向，而民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科则凭借选民对经济的担忧以及更高的个人任职认可度获得支持。
塔拉里科的支持率得益于更多民主党人明确表示会投票。这使得选举最后几周的局势仍完全悬而未决。如果更多共和党人决定投票，局势肯定会发生变化。
帕克斯顿的选民大多支持他，要么是因为他是共和党候选人，要么是因为他们反对塔拉里科，还因为他们想要支持特朗普总统。
塔拉里科的优势领域
共和党在全国面临的一些经济逆风也体现在了这里。生活成本是得州选民最关心的问题，大多数人表示高物价对他们造成了负面影响。在这些选民中，塔拉里科对帕克斯顿拥有明显领先优势。
而且更多选民认为塔拉里科具备担任参议员的合格品格。
个人品格对塔拉里科的支持者来说比对帕克斯顿的支持者重要得多。
塔拉里科获得了5%的共和党选民支持。
更广泛地说，他获得了9%的选民支持——这些选民不论自身党派归属，都表示以往从不投票给民主党，但此次会投票给民主党。
帕克斯顿的优势领域
但得州的情况与美国整体情况有所不同：与最新的哥伦比亚广播公司全国民调相比，特朗普政府的驱逐计划在得州获得了更多支持，这对帕克斯顿有利。
除经济因素外，共和党人认为塔拉里科所代表的政策对他们的文化和生活方式构成威胁。
（民主党人对帕克斯顿也持同样看法。）
帕克斯顿的共和党支持者中有很多人是为了支持特朗普。
在一个几乎没有选民自认为是自由主义者的州，近一半的人认为塔拉里科“非常自由主义”。当选民这样评价塔拉里科时，他们会投票给帕克斯顿。
选民 demographics 分析
得州的共和党选民人数远多于民主党选民。这意味着塔拉里科需要在无党派选民中获得压倒性支持，并在共和党选民中争取一些选票转移，或者动员足够多的新选民来弥补这一差距。
他还需要年轻选民踊跃投票，目前年轻选民以高比例支持他。但从历史来看，年轻选民的投票率通常不如老年选民高。
得州的拉丁裔选民在2024年转向了特朗普，但如今大多数人支持民主党人塔拉里科。拉丁裔选民比总体选民更有可能表示高物价给他们带来了困难或压力，而且他们中的大多数人认为帕克斯顿不具备担任参议员的合格个人品格。
州长选举
现任州长格雷格·阿博特在州长选举中领先民主党人吉娜·希诺霍萨。
阿博特还获得了7%的塔拉里科选民支持。
本次哥伦比亚广播公司新闻/益普索民调于2026年10月8日至16日进行，调查对象为具有代表性的1492名得州登记选民。样本根据性别、年龄、种族和教育程度，并参照美国人口普查数据以及2024年总统选举投票情况进行加权。登记选民样本的误差幅度为±3.4个百分点，可能选民样本的误差幅度为±3.5个百分点。
哥伦比亚广播公司新闻民调——2026年10月8日至16日
戴维·范·赖珀对本次报道亦有贡献。
CBS News poll shows a Texas toss-up with Talarico, Paxton in tight Senate race
October 18, 2026 / 9:02 AM EDT / CBS News
By Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus
The Texas Senate race is tight — essentially tied — and now all about…turnout.
Republican Ken Paxton benefits from the state’s overall Republican leanings, while Democrat James Talarico is boosted by voters’ economic concerns and higher perceptions of personal character to serve as senator.
Talarico’s standing is helped by more Democrats saying they’ll definitely vote. That leaves the dynamic in the closing weeks very much up for grabs. If more Republicans decide to vote, it could certainly change.
The bulk of Paxton’s voters are backing him either because he’s the GOP nominee or to oppose Talarico, and because they want to support President Trump.
Where Talarico does well
Some of the economic headwinds facing Republicans nationally are showing up here. The cost of living is the top issue for Texas voters, and most say they’ve been negatively affected by higher prices. Among these voters, Talarico enjoys a sizable lead over Paxton.
And more see Talarico as having the right character to serve as senator.
Personal qualities matter far more to Talarico’s backers than to Paxton’s.
Talarico gets 5% of those who identify as Republicans.
On a wider scale, he draws 9% of people who — regardless of their own party affiliation — say they never vote for Democrats, but will this time.
Where Paxton does well
But some things are different in Texas than in the country overall: The Trump administration’s deportation program gets more support in Texas, compared to the most recent CBS News national poll, and that advantages Paxton.
And outside the economic considerations, Republicans say they feel Talarico represents policies that are a threat to their culture and way of life.
(Democrats, for their part, feel the same about Paxton.)
A lot of Paxton’s backing from Republicans is an effort to support Trump.
And in a state where few voters describe themselves as liberal, Talarico is viewed as “very liberal” by nearly half. When they describe Talarico this way, they’re voting for Paxton.
Demographics on vote
Texas just has a lot more Republicans than Democrats. That means Talarico needs to do overwhelmingly well with independents and get some vote shift among GOPers, or activate enough new voters to offset that.
He also needs strong turnout from younger voters, who today say they back him in large percentages. Historically, younger voters don’t typically turn out at as high a rate as older voters do.
Latino voters in Texas swung toward Trump in 2024, but most are now backing Democrat Talarico. Latinos are more likely than voters overall to say higher prices have been a hardship or difficult, and most of them do not think Paxton has the right personal character to serve as a senator.
The race for governor
Incumbent Greg Abbott has an edge over Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the race for governor.
Abbott also receives the backing of 7% of Talarico voters.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 1,492 registered voters in Texas interviewed between October 8-16, 2026. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race and education based on U.S. Census data, as well as to 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error is ± 3.4 points for the sample of registered voters, and ± 3.5 points for likely voters.
CBS News Poll – October 8–16, 2026
David Van Riper contributed to this report.
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