2026-10-13T09:00:44.967Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/13/politics/kfile-kansas-rover-marshall-gas-prices-iran
堪萨斯州共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔曾在7月大胆宣称，“中期选举将由10月的汽油价格决定”。
如今这一预测看起来惊人地准确——尽管并非如马歇尔所愿：10月已至，汽油价格大幅上涨，而全美共和党候选人都面临着出人意料的激烈竞争。
自2月底伊朗战争爆发以来，美国汽油平均价格上涨了约46%，这主要是由战争导致全球石油市场中断推动的，而包括马歇尔在内的许多共和党人一直为这场战争辩护。
根据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据，堪萨斯州的油价涨幅更为显著，汽油和柴油价格分别上涨了57%和77%以上。
随着共和党人开始调整围绕这场战争的竞选信息，数千万美元的政治资金也被重新分配，这表明共和党正试图在原本稳固的共和党州巩固其防线。
马歇尔是这一转变的最大受益者，共和党超级政治行动委员会正向堪萨斯州投入数百万美元。其中大部分资金原本计划用于北卡罗来纳州，该州的共和党参议院候选人迈克尔·沃特利长期在民调中落后。
根据广告监测机构AdImpact的数据，支持参议院候选人的主要共和党团体之一“参议院领导基金”已经在堪萨斯州预订了价值近1000万美元的广告。
这项最后一刻的投资凸显出，马歇尔对这场战争的明确支持——包括他坚称其经济代价是值得付出的——已经成为一个真正的政治包袱，而堪萨斯州自1932年以来从未选出过民主党参议员。
马歇尔发现自己与民主党候选人亚当·汉密尔顿陷入了一场出乎意料的激烈角逐。汉密尔顿是一名牧师，也是美国最大卫理公会教堂的创始人。
在CNN的“KFile”栏目查阅的过去几个月的发言中，马歇尔始终认为这场战争的经济代价是值得的。他表示美国人将不得不“做出一些牺牲”，国家安全“比你的钱包更重要”，随后还补充道，阻止伊朗获得核武器“是值得付出这个代价的”。
马歇尔本人也多次承认高油价是选举中的不利因素，他在6月称油价“绝对是这次选举的晴雨表”。
堪萨斯州的汽油价格仍低于全国平均水平，但自战争爆发以来整体涨幅更快，削弱了该州燃油价格更低的部分优势。根据AAA燃油价格数据，目前堪萨斯州汽油均价约为每加仑4.01美元，柴油约为每加仑6.01美元。该州战前的汽油价格约为每加仑2.55美元，普通汽油涨幅约为57.5%，柴油涨幅约为77.6%。
柴油价格上涨对堪萨斯州的农民尤为重要，他们在秋收和冬小麦播种季依靠这种燃料操作拖拉机和卡车。在农民已经在应对更高的化肥成本和紧张的运营利润之际，燃油成本进一步上升。
尽管一些处于激烈参议院竞选的共和党人已经不再支持这场战争，但马歇尔的支持立场依然坚定。
马歇尔的竞选团队没有回复CNN的置评请求。
今年3月，伊朗战争爆发后不久，马歇尔在接受CNN记者凯特兰·柯林斯采访时被问及油价上涨问题，他回答说：“自由不是免费的。美国人将不得不做出一些牺牲。”
“我们是世界上最大的石油生产国，也是第二大石油出口国，”马歇尔说，“因此，我们不会在经济上被排除在外……但这是战争的代价之一。”
在4月接受纽smax采访时，有人问马歇尔能源价格以及美国民众愿意为高能源成本买单多久。马歇尔将其比作二战期间的牺牲。
“我们必须坚持下去，直到我们获得想要的结果，”他说，“我希望这是几周，而不是几个月。但归根结底，美国人会更安全。”
“我很抱歉汽油价格上涨，但帮助即将到来，”马歇尔补充道，“你的国家安全，没错，比你的钱包更重要。”
一天后，马歇尔直接向家乡的农民阐述了这一观点，他承认燃油和化肥成本上涨带来的压力，同时警告称，如果伊朗获得核武器并控制霍尔木兹海峡，经济后果可能会严重得多。
“如果伊朗的神权政权继续存在，他们研发出核武器并控制该海峡，柴油价格将涨到每加仑15美元，化肥价格也将再上涨50%，”马歇尔在专门报道农村问题的频道RFD-TV上说，“我们希望这是短期的。我感谢美国农民做出的牺牲，”他继续说道。
到5月底，马歇尔仍在预测经济影响将是暂时的。在接受福克斯商业频道采访时，他敦促美国人“支持总统，支持总司令，支持我们的军队”，并补充道，“我确实认为这场战争很快就会结束，那些汽油价格将会回落。”
“我们不能允许伊朗拥有核武器，”他说。
次月，马歇尔指出特朗普政府与伊朗达成的新谅解备忘录，作为战争及其经济影响正在缓解的证据。
“美国人已经受够了无休止的战争。美国人应该买得起汽油和食品，而这项协议正好做到了这一点，”马歇尔在6月接受CNN采访时说，他还补充道，随着霍尔木兹海峡重新开放，汽油价格正在下跌。
“我认为收益大于风险，”马歇尔在同月接受CNBC采访时说道。
这项协议很快就破裂了。到7月初，谈判陷入停滞，战斗重新打响，唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布谅解备忘录“结束”。
7月，马歇尔公开承认高燃油价格带来的政治风险。
在当地一家广播电台，他先是说“中期选举将由10月的汽油价格决定”，随后呼吁采取更迅速的行动：“所以，我认为如果我们要采取行动，就必须撕掉创可贴，直接介入。”
到了8月，马歇尔在同一家当地广播电台表示：“我们希望[这场战争]明天就能结束，但另一方面，我们不能允许伊朗拥有核武器。所以这可能就是代价。”
上周，库克政治报告将堪萨斯州参议院竞选的评级从“倾向共和党”调整为“势均力敌”。
尽管马歇尔在春季大部分时间都在预测战争的经济影响将是暂时的，但在选举前几周，汽油价格依然居高不下。
这让马歇尔面临着他在7月预测的那场政治考验，当时他曾说中期选举将由10月的汽油价格决定。
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/lbikm2b9uh6qgdzyrftfg/Senator-Marshall-Joins-Mundo-in-the-Morning-7.28.26.mp4?rlkey=dqrx9r0jojixr442rm5auw4vy&st=yalkcjbe&e=1&dl=0
GOP senator said gas prices would decide the midterms. Now they’re threatening his reelection
2026-10-13T09:00:44.967Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/13/politics/kfile-kansas-roger-marshall-gas-prices-iran
Republican Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas boldly declared in July that “the midterms will be decided by the price of gasoline in October.”
That prediction now looks strikingly prescient — though not in the way Marshall may have hoped: October has arrived with gasoline prices sharply higher, and Republican candidates across the country facing surprisingly competitive races.
Since the war in Iran began in late February, the average price of gasoline in the US risen by about 46%, driven largely by disruptions to global oil markets caused by the war that many Republicans, Marshall included, have consistently defended.
In Kansas, the change is even more stark, with gas and diesel prices up more than 57% and 77%, according to AAA data.
As Republicans have started to adjust their messaging around the war, millions of dollars in political spending are also being redirected in a sign that the GOP is attempting to shore up its defense in reliably Republican states.
Marshall is the top beneficiary of that shift, as Republican super PACs pour millions of dollars into Kansas. Much of that money had been intended for North Carolina, where GOP Senate nominee Michael Whatley has long been trailing in polls.
Senate Leadership Fund, one of the main Republican groups supporting Senate candidates, has booked nearly $10 million worth of ads in Kansas, according to AdImpact.
That last-minute investment underscores how Marshall’s unequivocal support for the war — including his insistence that its economic costs were worth bearing — has become a real liability in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.
Marshall finds himself in an unexpectedly close contest with Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton, a pastor and founder of the nation’s largest Methodist congregation.
In comments from the last several months reviewed by CNN’s KFile, Marshall consistently argued that the war was worth the economic toll. He said Americans would have to “make some sacrifices” and that national security was “even more important than your pocketbook,” later adding that keeping Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon was “worth the price.”
Marshall himself has repeatedly acknowledged gas prices as an electoral liability, calling them “absolutely the barometer for this election” in June.
Gasoline prices in Kansas are still lower than the national average, but they have risen faster overall since the war began, eroding some of the state’s advantage of having cheaper fuel. Today, Kansas gasoline averages about $4.01 a gallon and diesel about $6.01, according to AAA Fuel Prices. Gas is up from roughly $2.55 a gallon in the state from just before the war began, amounting to increases of about 57.5% for regular gasoline and about 77.6% for diesel.
Rising diesel prices are particularly consequential for Kansas farmers, who rely on that fuel to operate tractors and trucks during the fall harvest and winter wheat planting season. The increased costs come as farmers are already grappling with higher fertilizer expenses and tight operating margins.
While some Republicans in tough Senate races have backed away from support for the war, Marshall’s support remains steadfast.
The Marshall campaign did not reply to CNN’s request for comment.
When asked about rising gas prices in an interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins in March shortly after the war with Iran began, Marshall answered that “Freedom is not free. Americans are going to have to make some sacrifices.”
“We’re the largest producer of oil in the world, that we are the second biggest exporter of oil in the world,” Marshall said. “So, we’re not going to be shut out economically from this … but this is one of the prices of war.”
In an April interview with Newsmax, Marshall was asked about energy prices and how long America would be willing to pay high energy costs. Marshall compared it to sacrifices during World War II.
“We have to do it until we get the outcome that we want,” he said. “I hope it’s weeks and not months. But at the end of the day, Americans are gonna be safer.”
“So, I’m sorry the gas prices are going up, but help is on his way,” Marshall added. “And your national security, yes, is even more important than your pocketbook.”
A day later, Marshall took that argument directly to farmers in his home state, acknowledging the strain of higher fuel and fertilizer costs while warning that the economic consequences could be far worse if Iran obtained a nuclear weapon and controlled the Strait of Hormuz.
“If this theocracy in Iran continues, and they develop a nuclear weapon and they control the strait, diesel fuel is going to go up to $15 a gallon and your fertilizers go up another 50% as well,” Marshall said on RFD-TV, a channel dedicated to rural issues. “We hope this is short term. I appreciate the sacrifice the American farmer is making,” he continued.
By late May, Marshall was still predicting that the economic fallout would be temporary. In an interview with Fox Business, he urged Americans “to stand behind the president, stand behind the commander in chief, stand behind our troops,” adding, “I do think this war will be over sooner than later, and those gas prices will come back down.”
“We cannot allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” he said.
The following month, Marshall pointed to the Trump administration’s new memorandum of understanding with Iran as evidence that both the war and its economic consequences were easing.
“Americans are done with forever wars. Americans deserve affordable gas and groceries, and this agreement accomplishes just that,” Marshall said in a June CNN interview, adding that gas prices were falling as the Strait of Hormuz reopened.
“I believe the benefits outweigh the risks,” Marshall said on CNBC that same month.
The agreement quickly unraveled. By early July, negotiations had stalled, fighting had resumed and President Donald Trump declared the memorandum of understanding “over.”
In July, Marshall was openly acknowledging the political stakes of high fuel prices.
On a local radio station, he said “the midterms will be decided by the price of gasoline in October,” before arguing for swifter action: “So, I think if we’re going to do something, we got to rip the Band-Aid off and just go in there.”
And in August, Marshall told that same local radio station, “We want [the war] to be done tomorrow, but on the other hand, we can’t allow Iran to have nukes. So this may be the price.”
Last week, the Cook Political Report shifted the Kansas Senate race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.”
And while Marshall spent much of the spring predicting the war’s economic consequences would be temporary, gasoline prices remain elevated just weeks before Election Day.
It leaves Marshall confronting the very political test he predicted in July, when he said that the midterms would be decided by the price of gasoline in October.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/lbikm2b9uh6qgdzyrftfg/Senator-Marshall-Joins-Mundo-in-the-Morning-7.28.26.mp4?rlkey=dqrx9r0jojixr442rm5auw4vy&st=yalkcjbe&e=1&dl=0
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