2026-10-11T16:52:42.803Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
作者：伊桑·科恩
3小时前
发布于 2026年10月11日美国东部时间下午12:52
苏·奥格罗基/美联社
在俄亥俄州——这个可能决定参议院控制权的关键州——提前投票启动数天后，有明确迹象显示民主党选民的投票热情更高涨。
目前，登记民主党选民在提前投票选民中的占比高于2022年同期，即便在该州最倾向共和党的地区也是如此。
根据俄亥俄州务卿办公室的数据，2024年同期，在以20个百分点以上支持特朗普总统的县中，共和党选民的领先优势比民主党高出30个百分点。今年，这一差距已缩小至仅5个百分点。
其他县的选民也出现了转向，其中在最支持前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯的县，民主党选民的占比高出约25个百分点。
以上数据基于截至周四提前投票结束后的最新全州统计数据。有后续数据的县显示，周五的情况对共和党略微有利。
这些数据是民主党在中期选举环境中表现积极的最新迹象，前联邦参议员谢罗德·布朗正试图击败共和党现任参议员乔恩·赫斯特德，与此同时CNN的一项民调显示布朗以6个百分点的优势领先。在州长竞选中，民主党候选人艾米·阿克顿以8个百分点的优势领先共和党候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米。
目前的整体选民构成比2024年同期的民主党倾向高出约27个百分点。
苏·奥格罗基/美联社
需要注意的是，尽管这些迹象与其他数据一致，都显示今年民主党选民的投票热情高于共和党，但这远非决定性因素。
即便政党登记数据也无法透露选民实际投票给了哪个党派，而且这些趋势可能发生变化，因为近年来共和党人更倾向于在提前线下投票或选举日当天投票。
此外，目前投票进程仍处于非常早期的阶段。俄亥俄州的提前投票 turnout 仅达到2022年同期的11%左右。
相关报道 提前投票数据展现的2026年中期选举前瞻 阅读时长3分钟
与此同时，该州最民主党的地区的投票速度也比最共和党的地区更快。
那些最支持哈里斯的县的提前投票 turnout 达到了2024年同期的74%，而支持特朗普最多的县仅为67%。
根据为民主党、学者和非营利倡导组织提供数据、分析及其他服务的公司Catalist的数据，这一差距与弗吉尼亚州的情况类似，弗吉尼亚州也存在7个百分点的差距，该公司还能提供11月前的选民投票情况洞察。
这一差距比本月初有所缩小。
新泽西州的趋势变化
这种党派差异在其他州也有所体现。
俄亥俄州的选民在登记时不会选择党派，但该州会根据选民参与的初选来统计党派归属。而新泽西州则不同，选民登记时会明确党派。
2024年，民主党在新泽西州的选举表现异常疲软。前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯以不到6个百分点的优势击败特朗普，这是自1992年以来民主党在该州的最小胜选差距。
根据Catalist的数据，在提前投票阶段，最支持特朗普的县向民主党倾斜的党派转变幅度最大。
苏·奥格罗基/美联社
与2024年同期相比，在以20个百分点以上支持特朗普的该州三个县，目前已返还的选票的党派构成向民主党倾斜了近11个百分点。
在最支持哈里斯的县，选民构成的民主党倾向也有所提升，但幅度不到两个百分点。
新泽西州的线下提前投票尚未开始，因此这些转变也可能反映出共和党人正在逐渐放弃邮寄投票。
投票方式的转变
俄亥俄州的数据还揭示了人们投票方式的转变。
自提前投票启动以来，已有迹象表明2026年将延续新冠疫情后美国人逐渐放弃邮寄投票的趋势。
俄亥俄州的投票进程仍处于早期，但线下提前投票人数达到了2024年同期的72%，而邮寄投票人数仅为2024年同期的25%。
CNN的爱德华·吴为本报道贡献了内容。
Early voting figures suggest Democratic gains in Ohio’s most Trump-friendly counties
2026-10-11T16:52:42.803Z / CNN
By Ethan Cohen
3 hr ago
PUBLISHED Oct 11, 2026, 12:52 PM ET
Democratic Ohio Senate candidate Sherrod Brown, a former three-term U.S. senator, speaks at a campaign event in Akron, Ohio, on July 16, 2026.
Sue Ogrocki/AP
After the first days of early voting in Ohio, a state that could help determine control of the Senate, there are clear signs Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote.
So far, affiliated Democrats make up larger shares of pre-election voters than they did two years ago, even in the most Republican parts of the state.
At this point in 2024, Republicans had a 30-percentage point lead over Democrats in counties that voted for President Donald Trump by 20 points or more, according to data from the Ohio Secretary of State. This year, that’s shrunk to just five points.
Voters in other counties have also shifted, including in the counties that voted most strongly for former Vice President Kamala Harris, where they’re about 25 points more Democratic.
That’s based on the latest available set of statewide data, from after early voting on Thursday. There’s evidence from the counties for which later data is available that Friday was slightly better for Republicans.
The data is just the latest sign of a positive midterm environment for Democrats, as former Sen. Sherrod Brown looks to defeat Republican Sen. Jon Husted, and it comes as a CNN poll finds Brown leading by six points. In the governor’s race, Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by eight points.
The overall electorate so far is about 27 points more Democratic than it was at the same point in 2024.
Voters receive stickers at early in-person voting in Cleveland on Wednesday, October 7, 2026.
Sue Ogrocki/AP
It’s important to note that while these signs align with other data that have shown Democrats more enthusiastic to vote this year than Republicans, it’s far from determinative.
Even party registration data doesn’t reveal who voters marked their ballots for, and these trends could change, as Republicans in recent years have much been much more likely to vote early in person or on Election Day.
Plus, it’s still very early. Ohio is at about 11% of its total early voting turnout from 2022.
Related article What early voting data is showing ahead of the 2026 midterms 3 min read
That’s happening at the same time that the state’s most Democratic places are also turning out more quickly than the most Republican places.
Those counties that went most strongly for Harris were at 74% of their turnout from the same point in 2024, while the strongest Trump counties were at 67%.
That gap is similar to the one we’ve seen in Virginia, where there’s also a 7-point difference, according to data from Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofit advocacy groups, including insights into who is voting before November.
That gap is smaller than it was earlier this month.
A Garden State shift
This partisan difference is also apparent in other states.
Voters in Ohio don’t select a party when they register, but the state reports party affiliation based on which primary a voter participates in. That’s not the case in New Jersey, where voters do register with a party.
Democrats had an unusually weak election in the Garden State in 2024. Former Vice President Kamala Harris beat Trump there by less than 6 points, the narrowest margin for a Democrat since 1992.
The counties that were strongest for Trump have seen the biggest partisan shifts towards Democrats in pre-election voting so far, according to Catalist’s data.
Voters fill in their ballots in privacy booths during early in-person voting in Cleveland on Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026.
Sue Ogrocki/AP
The breakdown of voters who have returned ballots so far in the state’s three counties that voted for Trump by 20 points or more has shifted nearly 11 points toward Democrats compared to this point in 2024.
Turnout is also more Democratic in the strongest Harris counties, but by less than two points.
In-person early voting hasn’t started in New Jersey yet, so these shifts could also reflect Republicans continuing to shift away from voting by mail.
A shift in method
Ohio’s data also reveals a shift in the way people are voting.
Since pre-election voting started, there have been indications that 2026 would continue the trend of Americans moving away from voting by mail after the Covid-19 pandemic.
It’s early in Ohio, but while early in-person voting is at 72% of what it was at this point in 2024, mail voting is at just 25%.
CNN’s Edward Wu contributed to this report.
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