2026-10-10T21:44:21.991Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
作者：马歇尔·科恩
发布时间：2026年10月10日，美国东部时间下午5:44
（注：原文配图说明：4月1日，华盛顿特区西北区13街与L街路口悬挂的预测市场平台Kalshi广告。
摄影：艾莉森·罗伯伯特/美联社/档案照片）
据一位知情人士透露，Kalshi正对几笔精准预测凯蒂·扎卡里亚将出任下一任白宫新闻秘书的小额押注展开审查。
该人士表示，这三笔交易的金额均不足100美元，其中一笔仅为19美元。但在交易完成时，扎卡里亚获得该白宫职位的市场概率仅为1%，这意味着这些押注将为交易者带来数千美元的收益。
Kalshi的一位发言人拒绝置评。美国有线电视新闻网已联系白宫征求评论。
围绕扎卡里亚获任新闻秘书的交易发生在所谓的“可预知市场”。专家表示，相较于体育或选举结果市场，这类市场更容易出现内幕交易，因为其结果可以提前预知。
无党派组织反腐败数据集体（Anti-Corruption Data Collective）周五发布的一份监督报告显示，与2026年中期选举相关的高度具体的“可预知”市场已吸引超过2000万美元的交易量。
Kalshi的公司高管此前曾强调，他们一直在努力打击内幕交易，并与联邦检察官和监管机构合作。他们表示，公司拥有强大的监控工具，能够定期排查市场中的异常波动——扎卡里亚相关市场的情况显然属于此类。
（注：原文配图说明：2025年12月14日，凯蒂·扎卡里亚出席在田纳西州富兰克林市AMC DINE-IN Thoroughbred 2影院举办的《大卫》纳什维尔首映式。
摄影：特里·怀亚特/盖蒂图片社/2521娱乐）
《华尔街日报》最先报道了这起可能存在问题的交易。
美国有线电视新闻网与Kalshi存在合作关系，并使用其数据报道重大事件。CNN编辑人员不允许在预测平台进行交易。
围绕扎卡里亚获任的交易规模远小于近期其他备受关注的内幕交易案件。
特朗普白宫的提词器操作员曾通过在Kalshi平台非法押注特朗普在公开活动中的发言内容，获利超过10.7万美元。（他后来缴纳罚款了结了联邦调查。）另有一名特种部队士兵因据称在Polymarket平台上通过突袭抓捕委内瑞拉领导人的相关交易获利40万美元，面临刑事指控。（他已辩称无罪。）
不过，即便交易金额不大，仍可能构成内幕交易并触犯法律。
“内幕信息往往具有时效性，”反腐败数据集体研究员米歇尔·肯德勒-克雷奇表示，“某人可以下注的窗口很小。并非每个美国人都能在价格变动前的几小时内拿出1万美元存入Kalshi账户进行押注。”
_CNN的迈克尔·威廉姆斯为本报道贡献了内容。*
Kalshi scrutinizing longshot bets that correctly predicted Trump’s next press secretary
2026-10-10T21:44:21.991Z / CNN
By Marshall Cohen
PUBLISHED Oct 10, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
An advertisement for prediction market platform Kalshi hangs at 13th and L Streets in northwest Washington, DC, on April 1.
Allison Robbert/AP/File
Kalshi is scrutinizing a handful of small bets that correctly predicted Katie Zacharia would be the next White House press secretary, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The three trades were all under $100, and one was for a mere $19, the person said. But when the trades were placed, Zacharia was only trading at a 1% likelihood to get the White House post, which means the bets would net thousands of dollars.
A Kalshi spokesperson declined to comment. CNN has reached out to the White House for comment.
The trades surrounding Zacharia’s selection as press secretary took place on so-called “knowable markets,” which experts say are more susceptible to insider trading than markets for sports or election outcomes because the answers are knowable in advance.
A watchdog report published on Friday by the nonpartisan Anti-Corruption Data Collective found that super-specific “knowable” markets related to the 2026 midterm elections have attracted more than $20 million in trading volume.
Company leaders at Kalshi have previously stressed their efforts to crack down on insider trading and their cooperation with federal prosecutors and regulators. They say they have robust surveillance tools that routinely examine unexpected spikes in markets – as clearly happened with the Zacharia market.
Katie Zacharia attends the Nashville premiere of ‘David’ at AMC DINE-IN Thoroughbred 20 in Franklin, Tennessee, on December 14, 2025.
Terry Wyatt/Getty Images/2521 Entertainment
The Wall Street Journal first reported the potentially suspicious trades.
CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events. CNN editorial employees are not permitted to trade on prediction platforms.
The trades around Zacharia’s selection were far smaller than other recent high-profile insider trading cases.
Trump’s White House teleprompter operator profited more than $107,000 from unlawful bets on Kalshi about what Trump would say at public events. (He later paid a fine to settle a federal probe.) And a special forces soldier is facing criminal charges for allegedly making $400,000 on Polymarket from the raid to capture Venezuela’s leader. (He has pleaded not guilty.)
However, just because a trade is small, it can still be insider trading and possibly break the law.
“Insider information is often timely,” said Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, a researcher at the Anti-Corruption Data Collective. “There’s a small window someone can bet. Not every American has $10,000 in a bank account that they can put on Kalshi within a few hours before the prices change.”
CNN’s Michael Williams contributed to this report.
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