2026-10-06T08:00:44.783Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在其基本选民中的支持率，在2026年中期选举前夕达到了史上最低水平。
越来越多的民调显示，相当一部分基本选民正准备跨党派投票给民主党。
上周末公布的《纽约时报-锡耶纳学院》民调显示，在阿拉斯加、艾奥瓦、堪萨斯、俄亥俄和得克萨斯五个关键州，9%至16%的共和党可能选民表示支持民主党候选人。
而这类显示出显著跨党派投票效应的民调并非仅此一例——尤其是在美国中部地区。
根据CNN对各州民调的梳理，民主党候选人在四个关键参议院选举中以两位数优势领先共和党选民，在十大热门竞选州中的七个州，民主党平均领先至少9个百分点。
民主党候选人似乎还特别能吸引不认同特朗普“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动的共和党选民——这部分群体约占四分之一。但这一数据附带一个重要警告：过去几届总统选举的民调都低估了共和党选民的支持率。有迹象表明，此前的偏差可能源于民调总体上接触了足够数量的共和党人，但未能充分接触到该党——进而也是特朗普——的最坚定支持者。
如果今年重演这一模式，支持共和党的选民最终的投票率可能会比当前民调显示的更高。但值得注意的是，2022年上一次中期选举的民调并未出现这种偏差。
《纽约时报-锡耶纳学院》最新民调中最引人注目的数据来自堪萨斯州——这个州近来成为了出人意料的竞选战场。民调显示，民主党候选人亚当·汉密尔顿与共和党现任参议员罗杰·马歇尔在可能选民中支持率均为45%， Libertarian党候选人得票率为5%。
那么，在特朗普2024年以16个百分点优势胜出的深红州堪萨斯，汉密尔顿是如何将竞选拉至平局的？这位牧师吸引了16%的登记共和党人和10%的自认共和党人。（相比之下，根据该民调，马歇尔仅从民主党各群体中拿到了2%至3%的支持率。）
但汉密尔顿并非唯一能从共和党选民中拿到两位数支持率的民主党候选人。《纽约时报-锡耶纳学院》民调显示，艾奥瓦州民主党候选人乔希·图雷克拿到了12%的登记共和党人和5%的自认共和党人支持率。而在马利斯特学院和福克斯新闻6月底的最新民调中，这位州众议员同样从自认共和党人中拿到了两位数支持率（分别为13%和10%）。
在阿拉斯加州，民主党前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉在《纽约时报-锡耶纳学院》民调中拿到了13%的登记共和党人和9%的自认共和党人支持率。
在佐治亚州，福克斯新闻6月底的最新高质量民调显示，民主党现任参议员乔恩·奥索夫拿到了10%的自认共和党人支持率。
其他民主党候选人的支持率稍低，但仍不容忽视。
根据CNN的梳理，北卡罗来纳州的罗伊·库珀、俄亥俄州的谢罗德·布朗和得克萨斯州的詹姆斯·塔拉里科这三位民主党候选人，在近期高质量民调中平均获得了9%的共和党选民支持。
其他民主党候选人的情况为：新罕布什尔州众议员克里斯·帕帕斯平均支持率为5%，缅因州前州参议院议长特洛伊·杰克逊平均支持率为4%，密歇根州的阿卜杜勒·赛义德平均支持率为3%。
截至目前，民主党在全国民调中的整体优势尚未显现。所谓“通用选票”测试——即让选民在无提名的共和党人和无提名的民主党人之间做出选择——显示，在近期高质量民调中，民主党平均能拿到4%的共和党选民支持。
但这一数据让人联想到2018年中期选举时民主党人的表现，那一年是民主党整体表现强劲的选举年。
当时的出口民调显示，民主党在多个州从共和党选民手中拿到了两位数支持率：西弗吉尼亚州（17%）、亚利桑那州（12%）、俄亥俄州（11%）、宾夕法尼亚州（11%）和威斯康星州（10%），在其他关键竞选中则拿到了5%至9%的支持率。
（尽管民主党在特朗普任内的首次中期选举中拿下了40多个众议院席位，得益于有利的选举环境，但他们还是输掉了两个参议院席位，原因是他们在一些深红州进行了防御性竞选。）
今年，福克斯新闻的民调还对共和党选民进行了细分：支持MAGA的共和党人和非MAGA共和党人。四位民主党参议院候选人至少拿到了21%的非MAGA共和党人支持：北卡罗来纳州的库珀（21%）、得克萨斯州的塔拉里科（22%）、俄亥俄州的布朗（25%）和艾奥瓦州的图雷克（28%）。
密歇根州的赛义德拿到了12%的非MAGA共和党人支持率，而在最近的全国通用选票民调中，民主党整体支持率为12%。
考虑到特朗普在基本选民中明显存在的问题，如果民主党在11月3日的选举中取得历史性胜利，这群跨党派选民或将成为选举后各界热议的焦点。
Democrats are taking big chunks of GOP voters in key Senate races, polls show
2026-10-06T08:00:44.783Z / CNN
President Donald Trump has never had worse poll numbers with his base than he does ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
And a growing volume of polls shows a significant portion of that base is preparing to cross over and vote for Democrats.
New York Times-Siena College polls released over the weekend showed between 9% and 16% of Republican likely voters said they favored the Democratic nominee in five key states: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas.
And these aren’t the only polls to show a sizable crossover effect — especially in the middle of the country.
All told, Democratic candidates have led among GOP voters by double digits in four key Senate races, and they lead by an average of at least 9 points in seven of the top 10 races, according to a CNN review of polling in each state.
Democratic candidates also seem poised to take an especially large percentage of Republican voters who don’t identify with Trump’s MAGA movement — often around one-quarter of them. This data comes with an important caveat: Polling in the last few presidential elections has underestimated GOP support. And there are some signs that those misses may have been driven by polls reaching the right number of Republicans overall, but not enough of the party’s — and by extension, Trump’s — strongest supporters.
If that pattern holds this year, it’s possible that GOP-aligned voters may wind up more supportive of Republican candidates than the polls suggest now. But it is worth noting that polling in the last midterm election, in 2022, did not exhibit this pattern.
Perhaps the most striking numbers in the new Times-Siena polls came in Kansas, which has recently emerged as a surprising battleground. The poll showed Democrat Adam Hamilton tied with GOP Sen. Roger Marshall at 45% among likely voters, with the Libertarian candidate at 5%.
So how has Hamilton made the race that close in red Kansas, a state that Trump carried by 16 points in 2024? The pastor has peeled off 16% of registered Republicans and 10% of self-identified Republicans. (By contrast, Marshall took just 2-3% of each category of Democrats, according to the survey.)
But Hamilton is not the only Democratic candidate pulling double digits among Republican voters. The Times-Siena poll showed Iowa Democratic nominee Josh Turek taking 12% of registered Republicans and 5% of self-identified Republicans. And the state representative also took double digits among self-identified Republicans in recent polls from Marist College (13%) and Fox News (10%).
In Alaska, Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola took 13% of registered Republicans and 9% of self-identified Republicans in the Times-Siena poll.
And in Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff was taking 10% of self-identified Republicans in the most recent high-quality poll, from Fox News in late June.
Other Democrats take slightly less but still significant numbers.
The Democratic nominees in North Carolina (Roy Cooper), Ohio (Sherrod Brown) and Texas (James Talarico) have all averaged 9% of the GOP vote in recent high-quality polls, according to a CNN review.
Among other Democrats: New Hampshire Rep. Chris Pappas was averaging 5%, former Maine state Senate President Troy Jackson was averaging 4%, and Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed was averaging 3%.
Thus far, the Democratic Party hasn’t matched the larger advantages in national polling. The so-called generic ballot, which asks people to choose between an unnamed Republican and an unnamed Democrat, shows Democrats averaging about 4% of Republican voters in recent high-quality polls.
But the numbers do recall some of Democrats’ results in the 2018 midterms, which was a strong year for Democrats overall.
Exit polls back then showed Democrats taking double digits’ worth of GOP voters in a number of states — West Virginia (17%), Arizona (12%), Ohio (11%), Pennsylvania (11%) and Wisconsin (10%) — and taking between 5% and 9% in the rest of the key races.
(While Democrats took more than 40 House seats from the GOP and benefitted from a favorable environment in the first midterm election under Trump, they did lose two Senate seats because they were defending some very red states.)
This year, Fox News polling also breaks out Republicans between MAGA Republicans and non-MAGA Republicans. And four Democratic Senate candidates have taken at least 21% of the non-MAGA Republicans: Cooper in North Carolina (21%), Talarico in Texas (22%), Brown in Ohio (25%) and Turek in Iowa (28%).
El-Sayed took 12% of non-MAGA Republicans in Michigan, while Democrats took 12% on the most recent national generic ballot.
And given Trump’s apparent base problems, if Democrats do have a historic night on November 3, that could be a group of voters we’ll be talking a lot about in the aftermath.
发表回复