2026-10-06T04:01:44.835Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
唐纳德·特朗普总统或许正身陷政治困境，但他所代表的保守派民粹民族主义品牌正在全球范围内蓬勃发展。
崛起的政坛新星弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在周日巴西总统选举首轮投票中爆冷获胜，进一步巩固了特朗普以其政治形象重塑西半球的计划。
随着外国领导人未能解决生活成本问题、兑现变革承诺——这一问题也正随着美国中期选举临近而困扰着美国共和党人——欧洲的右翼民粹主义者也在借机造势。
随着德国总理弗里德里希·梅尔茨政府陷入停滞，激进反移民的德国选择党（AfD）一跃成为全国性政治力量。法国极右翼领袖玛丽娜·勒庞在明年总统选举前的民调中遥遥领先。
这些政党并非特朗普的复刻版，其中一些甚至早于他的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动出现。但他的上台与执政耐力激励着它们。同时，特朗普政府公开支持这些民族主义盟友——这些盟友正威胁着特朗普在国际峰会上会面的中间派欧洲领导人的地位。
诸多极右翼政党都秉持着助力特朗普在2016年和2024年大选中惊艳亮相的民粹主义理念，奉行保护主义经济政策，并效仿他对精英阶层、全球化和大规模移民的敌视态度。
如果就在特朗普的政治光环褪去之际，右翼民粹主义在其他地区达到顶峰，那将颇具讽刺意味。但特朗普不太可能成为“跛脚鸭”总统，他或许会效仿其他连任总统，在卸任前积极将自身的政治遗产烙印在全球。
保守派民粹主义的声势已然给加拿大总理马克·卡尼和英国新任首相安迪·伯纳姆这类领导人带来了生死攸关的挑战。两人都正发起反击，通过采用旨在削弱右翼势力、强化温和中间派政府的言论与政策来应对危机。
但特朗普的激进政治转向似乎正引发另一波反向反应，尤其是在美国。一些中期选举初选中民主社会主义者的胜利预示着左翼民粹主义的新浪潮。
博索纳罗是特朗普好友、巴西前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗的长子。雅伊尔·博索纳罗在2022年大选后因密谋推翻巴西现任总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦被判有罪而入狱。
卢拉距离第二轮选举仅剩三周时间，需要奋起反击，阻止这个拉美人口最多的民主国家滑向右翼。
美国民主党参议员珍妮·沙欣、蒂姆·凯恩和彼得·韦尔奇上月致信美国国务卿马可·卢比奥，指控特朗普政府利用关税和经济制裁干涉巴西民主。在此背景下，特朗普势必会在巴西第二轮选举中发挥重大影响。
与此同时，特朗普借巴西周日选举之机质疑美国民主，指出巴西有1.25亿选民参与投票且当日公布结果，而美国一些州并非如此。他在社交媒体上发帖称：“美国的选举存在腐败！！！”
博索纳罗 Jr. 的意外崛起紧随阿瓦拉德洛·德·拉斯普列利亚之后——这位右翼激进派人士今年早些时候赢得了哥伦比亚总统选举。在民粹主义者劳拉·费尔南德斯·德尔加多当选后，哥斯达黎加以及萨尔瓦多、智利和洪都拉斯也相继出现了亲白宫的保守派政府。
在阿根廷，特朗普的忠实追随者哈维尔·米莱总统受益于特朗普提出的2000亿美元货币互换协议，该协议以选民在议会选举中支持其政党为条件。米莱曾在一场保守派会议上向埃隆·马斯克赠送了一把链锯。
特朗普还通过扶持左翼威权主义的委内瑞拉政权，同时达成被批评者称为21世纪帝国主义掠夺的石油出口协议，来扩大其在该地区的影响力。
明年，法国极右翼民族主义运动中最持久的代表人物之一或将借助民粹主义浪潮当选总统，此前她曾三次参选总统均告失败。玛丽娜·勒庞过去曾因法国两轮选举制受挫，当时选民会团结在温和派对手周围。但随着建制派中右翼和中左翼政党的衰落，勒庞如今可能会在第二轮对决中对阵左翼民粹主义者让-吕克·梅朗雄——目前民调显示她有望击败对方。
勒庞已对其国民联盟政党进行了改造，该政党脱胎于其父让-玛丽·勒庞领导的国民阵线。但她仍主张民族主义、反移民、保护主义政策，并对欧盟持敌视态度。她若当选，将成为现代法国史上最右翼的总统，也将像特朗普在华盛顿那样撼动巴黎和布鲁塞尔的建制派。
欧洲中间派人士对德国选择党更为警惕，因为极右翼政党在德国尤为声名狼藉——这个国家用了80年时间反思纳粹主义带来的耻辱。
德国选择党比勒彭和MAGA运动更为右翼，批评者指责其否认历史、反犹太主义和民族主义。但该党目前已是德国联邦议会中的第二大单一政党。
2025年，美国副总统J·D·万斯在慕尼黑会见德国选择党领导人爱丽丝·魏德尔，同时警告称移民正在摧毁西方文明，此举激怒了欧洲人。上月，德国选择党在萨克森-安哈尔特州 landslide（压倒性）获胜后，特朗普在社交媒体上表态支持该党，写道：“他们正在崛起，再也不会忍气吞声了！”
特朗普长期以来一直自诩为全球民粹主义的领袖。例如，他在2016年曾声称自己“推动”了英国脱欧公投，而数月后这也成为他本人以民粹主义浪潮入主白宫的先兆。
但他并非总能如愿以偿。尽管特朗普试图挽救，极右翼MAGA英雄、匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班今年还是下台了。此外，特朗普与另一位保守派民粹主义者、意大利总理焦尔吉娅·梅洛尼的关系因伊朗问题以及他声称梅洛尼“乞求”与他自拍而恶化。
卡尼对特朗普要求加拿大成为美国第51个州的诉求做出回应，成为西方民主国家的非正式领袖，填补了特朗普留下的领导真空。今年1月，他警告称：“在民粹主义和民族主义抬头之际，加拿大可以向世界展示多样性如何成为优势，而非劣势。”
伯纳姆在上周工党年度会议上的演讲中，针对经济凋敝引发的怨恨情绪展开回应——这类怨恨正是右翼民粹主义滋生的土壤。他将根源归咎于可追溯至20世纪80年代撒切尔政府的“英国右翼”，称其推动了放松管制、去工业化和私有化。
但如果伯纳姆失败，特朗普的民粹主义盟友、英国改革党领袖奈杰尔·法拉奇正等待伺机而动。
伯纳姆的言论听起来有点像前总统乔·拜登——拜登曾试图通过大规模基础设施和社会支出法案，化解后工业衰败地区的特朗普主义情绪。
但拜登长期以来低估了这项任务的艰巨性。他早在2012年就曾表示，激进保守主义的“狂热”终将消退，后来还预测特朗普2020年卸任后共和党会迎来“顿悟”。
特朗普式民粹主义或许会有兴衰起落，但其韧性表明，无论其庇护者的政治命运如何，它如今已是全球民主国家的永久特征。
Trump may be in political trouble. But Trump-style global populism isn’t
2026-10-06T04:01:44.835Z / CNN
President Donald Trump might be in a political hole, but his brand of conservative populist nationalism is flourishing across the globe.
Rising star Flávio Bolsonaro’s shock win in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election Sunday bolstered Trump’s project of remaking the Western Hemisphere in his political image.
Populist right-wingers are also on the march in Europe, fueled by the same failures of foreign leaders to tackle the cost of living and deliver promised change that are haunting US Republicans as the midterm elections draw near.
The radical anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) is catapulting into a national force as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government flatlines. France’s far-right leader Marine Le Pen is leading the polls ahead of next year’s presidential election.
These parties aren’t Trump clones, and some predate his MAGA movement. But his rise to power and endurance inspire them. And the administration loudly supports its nationalist brethren threatening to topple the centrist European leaders the president meets at international summits.
Many far-right parties share the populist ethos that powered Trump’s stunning 2016 and 2024 campaigns, embracing protectionist economics and emulating his hostility to elites, globalization and mass immigration.
It would be ironic if right-wing populists peak elsewhere just as Trump’s star fades. But he makes an unlikely lame duck, and may copy other second-term presidents who aggressively tried to imprint their legacies on the world before leaving power.
The strength of conservative populism has conjured an existential moment for leaders like Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and his new British counterpart Andy Burnham. Both are leading a fight-back by adopting rhetoric and programs designed to blunt the right and reinforce moderate, centrist government.
But Trump’s violent political shifts seem to be stirring a separate counter-reaction, especially in the United States, as the success of democratic socialists in some midterm primaries heralds a new wave of left-wing populism.
Bolsonaro is the eldest son of Trump buddy and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who was imprisoned after being convicted of plotting a coup against Brazil’s current leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva after 2022 general elections.
Lula has only three weeks before a runoff election to mount a comeback that would stop the most populous Latin American democracy from careening to the right.
Trump will loom large over the second round after Democratic Sens. Jeanne Shaheen, Tim Kaine and Peter Welch wrote to Secretary of State Marco Rubio last month to accuse the administration of using tariffs and economic sanctions to interfere in Brazilian democracy.
Trump, meanwhile, marked Brazil’s Sunday election by casting doubt on America’s democracy, noting that 125 million people voted and results came out the same day, unlike in some US states. “Voting in America is CORRUPT !!!” he posted.
Bolsonaro Jr.’s surprising ascent follows that of Abelardo De La Espriella, a right-wing insurgent who won Colombia’s presidential election earlier this year. Conservative governments friendly to the White House now rule in Costa Rica, after the election of populist Laura Fernández Delgado, and in El Salvador, Chile and Honduras.
In Argentina, President Javier Milei, the Trump acolyte who gifted a chainsaw to Elon Musk at a conservative conference, benefited from a $20 billion currency swap offer Trump made conditional on voters supporting his party in legislative elections.
Trump is also stamping his influence on the region by propping up the leftist authoritarian Venezuelan regime while concluding oil-exporting deals that critics have styled as 21st-century imperialist plunder.
The populist tide may lift one of the right-wing nationalist movement’s most abiding figures in France next year after three previous failed presidential bids. Le Pen has in the past been thwarted by her country’s two-stage electoral system as voters coalesced around moderate rivals. But the collapse of establishment center-right and center-left parties means she may face left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon — whom she’s currently expected to beat — in a runoff.
Le Pen has remodeled her National Rally party, which evolved from the National Front of her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen. But she still advocates nationalist, anti-immigration, protectionist policies and antipathy to the EU. She’d be the most right-wing French president of the modern era and would shake the establishments in Paris and Brussels just as Trump did in Washington.
European centrists are even more alarmed by the AfD, since far-right parties court particular notoriety in Germany, which has spent 80 years processing the shame of Nazism.
The AfD is to the right of Le Pen and MAGA, and its critics accuse it of historical denialism, antisemitism and ethno-nationalism. But it’s now the second biggest single party in Germany’s federal legislature.
In 2025, Vice President JD Vance outraged Europeans by meeting the AfD leader Alice Weidel in Munich while warning that immigration was destroying Western civilization. Last month, Trump backed the AfD on social media after a landslide win in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, writing, “THEY ARE ON THE RISE, and not going to take it anymore!”
Trump has long projected leadership over global populism. He claimed in 2016, for instance, that he “called” Britain’s vote to leave the EU, which was a harbinger of his own populist surge to the presidency a few months later.
But he’s not had things all his own way. Far-right MAGA hero and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán fell from power this year despite Trump’s efforts to save him. And the president’s friendship with another conservative populist, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, soured over the Iran war and his claim that she “begged” him for a selfie.
Carney reacted to Trump’s demands for Canada to become the 51st state by emerging as an informal leader of the Western democracies in a role vacated by Trump. In January, he warned that at “a time of rising populism and ethnic nationalism, Canada can show how diversity can be a strength, not a weakness.”
Burnham used his speech at the Labour Party annual conference last week to address the resentment arising from economic blight that feeds right-wing populism. He blamed the “British Right” dating back to Margaret Thatcher’s governments of the 1980s for pushing deregulation, de-industrialization and privatization.
But if Burnham fails, Trump’s populist pal and Reform leader Nigel Farage is waiting to pounce.
Burnham sounds a little like former President Joe Biden, who tried to drain the well of Trumpism in decaying post-industrial areas with vast infrastructure and social spending bills.
But Biden long underestimated the size of the task. He said back in 2012 that he expected the “fever” of radical conservatism to break and later forecast a GOP “epiphany” after Trump left office in 2020.
Trump-style populism may wax and wane, but its resilience suggests it’s now a permanent feature in global democracies, whatever the political fates have in store for its patron.
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