这场竞争的核心是民主党选民的高参与度和共和党内部的分裂
2026年10月1日 美国东部时间下午6:00 / 福克斯新闻
作者：维多利亚·巴拉拉，福克斯新闻
能帮助塔拉里科实现历史性翻盘的得州选民
州博览会上的选民讨论塔拉里科能否击败肯·佩顿、将得州染蓝并结束民主党数十年的全州选举连败局面。
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距离选举日还有数周，民主党选民的高参与度和积极的民调评分让民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科在目前看来将是孤星州联邦参议院席位胶着对决中以微弱优势领先共和党人肯·佩顿。
这份周四发布的分析报告基于得州可能选民群体，另有说明的除外。
塔拉里科的个人好感净评分为正8个百分点（52%好感，44%反感），而佩顿的好感净评分为负18个百分点（40%好感，58%反感）。共和党人对佩顿持负面看法的比例（32%）是民主党人对塔拉里科持负面看法比例（5%）的六倍。
共和党还存在热情差距。支持“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）的共和党人比非MAGA共和党人对中期选举极度感兴趣的比例更高（64% vs. 50%），且确定会投票的比例也更高（76% vs. 65%）。相比之下，三分之二的民主党社会主义者组织（DSA）成员和非DSA民主党人都极度感兴趣，近四分之三的这两类民主党人都确定会投票。
福克斯新闻民调：密歇根选民在赛义德与罗杰斯之间分裂
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总体而言，得州可能选民对参议院控制权的看法存在分歧：49%的人希望民主党掌控参议院，而50%的人支持共和党掌控参议院。8%的自认为共和党人的选民支持民主党掌控参议院，而仅有1%的民主党选民跨党派支持共和党。
所有这些都让塔拉里科在首次针对得州可能选民的福克斯新闻民调中以微弱的2个百分点领先佩顿（51% vs. 49%，因此无法进行历史对比）。这些对决结果处于抽样误差范围内。
在规模更大的登记选民样本中，塔拉里科的优势扩大到7个百分点（刚好超出误差边际）。这比7月份的3个百分点优势有所上升。
共和党人的摇摆不定进一步体现在参议院偏好上：非MAGA共和党人支持塔拉里科的比例是MAGA共和党同行的五倍多（22% vs. 4%）。这种跨党派投票呼应了共和党党内初选和决选留下的持续分歧：20%的在3月初初选支持共和党现任参议员约翰·科宁的可能选民转而支持塔拉里科。
福克斯新闻民调：选民质疑AI的承诺是否大于其风险
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100%的DSA民主党人和98%的非DSA民主党人都支持塔拉里科，且略多的塔拉里科支持者（89%）比佩顿的支持者（85%）更确定自己的投票选择。
此外，塔拉里科还获得了黑人选民（79%）、温和派选民（65%）、西班牙裔选民（64%）和35岁以下选民（62%）的强力支持。
佩顿的最佳支持群体是白人福音派基督徒（74%）、未上过大学的白人男性（65%）、农村选民（57%）和65岁及以上选民（55%）。
两位候选人都面临意识形态方面的质疑。大致相当比例的选民担心塔拉里科在政策上过于自由派（53%表示担忧），以及佩顿与特朗普总统过于亲近（51%表示担忧）。
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2024年，唐纳德·特朗普总统以近14个百分点的优势赢得了得州。如今，他的工作支持率为负11个百分点：44%的人认可，55%的人不认可。在不认可特朗普工作表现的选民中，仍有15%支持佩顿，而在认可特朗普工作表现的选民中，仅有9%支持塔拉里科。
经济困难仍是选民关注的核心议题。七成得州选民表示生活成本将对他们的参议院选举投票极为重要，这对共和党来说又是一个难题：称自己经济状况正在恶化的选民（35%）是称自己经济状况正在改善的选民（16%）的两倍。经济状况恶化的选民以32个百分点的优势支持塔拉里科，而经济状况改善的选民则以48个百分点的优势支持佩顿。经济状况保持稳定的选民（占最大群体，48%）则以3个百分点的微弱优势支持佩顿。
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近一半的选民表示特朗普（48%）和移民问题（47%）将对他们的投票极为重要，另有三分之一的选民认为人工智能技术（34%）同样重要。
塔拉里科在那些认为生活成本（塔拉里科领先19个百分点）、人工智能（领先18个百分点）和特朗普（领先6个百分点）将对参议院选举投票极为重要的选民中占据大幅领先优势，而关注移民问题的选民则支持佩顿（领先20个百分点）。
在州长选举中，现任共和党州长格雷格·阿博特的正面工作支持率让他领先民主党挑战者吉娜·希诺霍萨。这位连任三届的现任州长以52%比47%的优势领先得州州众议院代表希诺霍萨。
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52%的选民认可阿博特的州长工作表现，同样比例的选民在选举中支持他。另有47%的选民不认可他的工作表现，这一比例与支持希诺霍萨的选民比例相同。
阿博特的表现优于佩顿，因为他在男性、共和党人和温和派选民中的支持率略高。女性选民在州长选举中的态度则更为平均。
阿博特还拥有适度的跨党派支持优势：10%的塔拉里科支持者会投票给阿博特担任州长，而仅有3%的佩顿支持者会投票给希诺霍萨。
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“得州的民主党人会不惜一切代价投票反对特朗普，所以问题在于，在没有特朗普参选、参议院竞选出现有争议的共和党候选人的情况下，普通共和党选民是否会出来投票，”与民主党人克里斯·安德森共同开展福克斯新闻民调的共和党民调专家达伦·肖说道。
“具有讽刺意味的是，佩顿的政治生命可能要归功于阿博特，阿博特正在为共和党人开展大部分的动员投票工作。”
本次福克斯新闻民调于2026年9月24日至28日进行，由Beacon Research（民主党）和Shaw & Company Research（共和党）联合指导，共采访了1203名从全州选民档案中随机抽取的得州登记选民。受访者通过固定电话（127人）、手机（789人）接受现场访谈，或在收到短信后在线完成调查（287人）。登记选民样本的抽样误差范围为±2.5个百分点，针对881名可能选民的子样本抽样误差范围为±3个百分点。
subgroups结果的抽样误差更高。除抽样误差外，问题措辞和顺序也会影响调查结果。用于制定权重目标的信息来源包括最新的美国社区调查、福克斯新闻选民分析和选民档案数据。通常会针对年龄、种族、教育程度和地区变量进行加权，以确保受访者的人口结构能够代表登记选民群体。可能选民是基于概率统计模型得出的，该模型依赖于过去的投票历史、对当前选举的兴趣、投票意向、年龄、教育程度、种族、族裔和婚姻状况。仅当样本量至少达到N=100时，才会展示子群体的调查结果。
Fox News Poll: It’s a Lone Star Senate showdown between Talarico and Paxton
The contest is defined by Democratic engagement and GOP divisions
October 1, 2026 6:00pm EDT / Fox News
By Victoria Balara, Fox News
The Texas voters who could help Talarico pull off a historic upset
Voters at the State Fair discuss whether Talarico can defeat Ken Paxton, turn Texas blue and end Democrats’ decades-long statewide losing streak.
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Weeks before Election Day, Democratic engagement and positive ratings give Democrat James Talarico a razor-thin edge over Republican Ken Paxton in what is, so far, shaping up to be a photo finish for the Lone Star State’s U.S. Senate seat.
This analysis, released Thursday, is among Texas likely voters, unless otherwise noted.
Talarico enjoys a net positive personal rating of 8 points (52% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable), while Paxton’s is underwater by 18 points (40% vs. 58%). Republicans are six times more likely to view Paxton unfavorably (32%) than Democrats do Talarico (5%).
The GOP also has an enthusiasm gap. More MAGA than non-MAGA Republicans are extremely interested in the midterms (64% vs. 50%) and certain they will vote (76% vs. 65%). By contrast, two-thirds of DSA and non-DSA Democrats are extremely interested, and nearly three-quarters of both groups are certain they will vote.
FOX NEWS POLL: MICHIGAN VOTERS SPLIT BETWEEN EL-SAYED AND ROGERS
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Overall, Texas likely voters split on control of the Senate: 49% prefer a Democratic Senate while 50% favor a Republican upper chamber.Eight percent of self-identified Republicans prefer the Democrats in power versus 1% of Democrats crossing over to pick the GOP.
All this gives Talarico a slim 2-point edge over Paxton (51-49%) in the first Fox News Poll among Texas likely voters (so no comparisons are available). These matchup results are within the margin of sampling error.
Among the larger sample of registered voters, Talarico’s advantage widens to 7 points (just outside the margin of error). That’s up from a 3-point edge in July.
GOP ambivalence is further reflected in Senate preferences because non-MAGA Republicans are more than five times more likely to back Talarico than their MAGA counterparts (22% to 4%). The crossover echoes lingering divisions from the competitive GOP primary and runoff: 20% of likely voters who backed Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the March primary back Talarico.
FOX NEWS POLL: VOTERS QUESTION WHETHER AI’S PROMISE OUTWEIGHS ITS RISK
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Fully 100% of DSA Democrats and 98% of non-DSA Democrats back Talarico, and slightly more of his backers are certain of their support (89%) than Paxton backers (85%).
In addition, Talarico also gets strong backing from Black voters (79%), moderates (65%), Hispanic voters (64%) and voters under age 35 (62%).
Paxton’s best groups are White evangelical Christians (74%), White men without a college degree (65%), rural voters (57%) and voters ages 65 and over (55%).
Both candidates face ideological concerns. Roughly equal numbers are concerned Talarico is too liberal on the issues (53% concerned) and Paxton is too close to President Trump (51%).
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In 2024, President Donald Trump won Texas by nearly 14 percentage points. Today, his job rating is underwater by 11 points: 44% approve vs. 55% disapprove. Fifteen percent of those disapproving still back Paxton compared to 9% of Trump approvers backing Talarico.
Economic hardships continue to dominate the narrative. Seven in 10 Texans say the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote, and this is another problem for the Republicans because twice as many voters say they are falling behind financially (35%) as getting ahead (16%). Those falling behind back Talarico by 32 points, while those getting ahead favor Paxton by 48 points. Those holding steady (48%), the largest group, narrowly back Paxton by 3 points.
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Nearly half say Trump (48%) and immigration (47%) will be extremely important to their vote, while one-third say the same about artificial intelligence technology (34%).
Talarico holds wide leads among those saying the cost of living (Talarico +19), artificial intelligence (+18) and Trump (+6) will be extremely important to their Senate vote, while immigration-focused voters back Paxton (+20).
In the governor’s race, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott’s positive job ratings give him an edge over Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa. The three-time incumbent has a 52%-47% advantage over the Texas state House representative.
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Over half, 52%, approve of the job Abbott is doing as governor, and that same share backs him in the race. Another 47% disapprove, the same number who back Hinojosa.
Abbott fares better than Paxton because he has slightly higher support among men, Republicans and moderates. Women are more evenly divided in the governor’s race.
Abbott also has a modest crossover advantage: 10% of Talarico supporters back Abbott for governor while just 3% of Paxton supporters do the same for Hinojosa.
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“Democrats in Texas will walk across broken glass to vote against Trump, so the question is whether the average Republican will vote in an election without Trump and where the Senate race features a controversial GOP candidate,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News Polls with Democrat Chris Anderson.
“Ironically, Paxton may owe his political life to Abbott, who is doing most of the get-out-the-vote work for the Republicans.”
Conducted September 24-28, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,203 Texas registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (127) and cellphones (789) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (287). Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points, and for the subsample of 881 likely voters it is ±3 percentage points.
Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling errors, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, intention to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity and marital status. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.
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