2026-10-01T09:00:30.486Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/01/politics/cnn-early-voting-takeaways-democratic-advantage
距离选举日还有一个月，但全美至少29个州已有超过69万美国人完成提前投票。目前已有迹象显示民主党在动员选民方面占据优势——这一趋势贯穿了整个夏季的民调结果。
在今年秋季将举行参议院或州长关键选举的多个州，目前申请邮寄选票的选民中民主党占比均高于2024年同期水平。
在艾奥瓦州，民主党人占选票申请量的67%，高于2024年同期的54%；宾夕法尼亚州这一比例为66%，较2024年同期的62%有所上升；缅因州为57%，高于2024年同期的53%。根据北卡罗来纳州选举委员会的数据，该州42%的选票申请来自民主党人，较两年前同期的36%有所提高。
值得注意的是，除艾奥瓦州外，上述其他州2022年同期的选票申请中民主党占比均高于当前水平。
民主党选票申请占比的上升与民调、特别选举结果以及初选投票率的情况相符，所有这些都表明民主党选民今年11月的投票积极性可能更高。
但另一方面，这也可能进一步证明共和党人正越来越多地转向其他投票方式。
需要注意的一个重要前提：虽然个人已完成投票的信息通常属于公开信息，但选票本身是保密的，因此这些数据无法说明某一政党或候选人赢得了多少选票。具体结果要等到11月3日投票站关闭后各州开始公布选举结果时才能知晓。
提前投票数据仅能反映一部分选民群体：这部分选民通常年龄更大，且整体上比全体选民更倾向民主党。
随着美国从新冠疫情中复苏，投票模式在过去几年发生了变化。
美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）的出口民调数据显示，邮寄投票比例已从2020年的峰值回落，但65岁及以上选民在邮寄投票者中的占比却有所上升，从2020年的27%升至2022年的31%，2024年进一步达到37%。
这并不出人意料。对于可能不便前往投票站的老年人来说，邮寄投票是一种便捷的选择。在许多州，选民若需理由才能进行邮寄投票，年龄本身即可成为领取邮寄选票的合法理由。
现有初步迹象显示，这一趋势在今年仍在延续。
在几乎所有可获取可比数据的州，今年65岁及以上选民在选票申请量中的占比均高于2022年或2024年同期水平。
到目前为止，民主党最积极的信号或许来自弗吉尼亚州。该州公布的总投票数远超CNN统计范围内的其他各州，也是唯一一个同时公布了大量提前现场投票和邮寄投票数据的州。
尽管弗吉尼亚州选民不按党派登记，但当地2024年的投票结果与当前提前投票的相对节奏之间存在明显关联。
那些在2024年投票支持前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯的县、市，其提前投票率达到了2024年同期的78%；而投票支持总统唐纳德·特朗普的县、市，这一比例仅为61%。
以2022年以来仅参与过某一政党初选的选民占比来衡量的党派投票率，也表明提前投票期间民主党人的优势相较于2024年同期有显著提升。
尽管目前的投票数据显示民主党在动员选民方面拥有明显优势，但随着选举日临近，共和党选民可能会缩小差距。当前投票期仍处于早期——弗吉尼亚州2024年的总投票量超过450万张，2025年则超过340万张。今年弗吉尼亚州的参议院竞选预计不具备竞争性，共和党选民可能会在竞争更激烈的选举中更有积极性。
不过，该州两场竞争激烈的众议院选区选举也显示出选民热情向民主党倾斜的迹象。
截至目前，在第1国会选区和第2国会选区的已投票选民中，民主党初选参与者人数分别以15个和18个百分点领先共和党初选参与者。这两个选区均为共和党占据的战场选区，现任议员分别面临强劲挑战：第1选区的众议员罗布·威特曼和第2选区的众议员詹·基根斯。
而在2024年同期，两个选区的党派构成相对均衡，第1选区共和党初选参与者领先约3个百分点，第2选区民主党初选参与者领先2个百分点。
全州范围内，民主党初选参与者人数以约18个百分点领先共和党，高于2024年同期的8个百分点。
选举前的投票数据具有参考价值，但也存在局限性。
CNN、美联社以及数据公司Catalist共同汇编了提前投票数据。Catalist是一家为民主党、学术界和非营利倡导组织提供数据、分析及其他服务的公司，包括11月前的选民投票情况洞察。
目前的投票人数仅占2022年约5700万张选举前选票的极小一部分，在该届选举总投票量约1.12亿张中的占比更低，但预计未来几周将大幅增长。
目前的数据也主要局限于邮寄选票，因为几乎没有哪个州已经启动大规模的提前现场投票。近年来，邮寄投票者大多更倾向民主党，而提前现场投票者的党派倾向则更为平均，或更偏向共和党。
Early voting data shows emerging signs of a Democratic advantage in the midterms
2026-10-01T09:00:30.486Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/01/politics/cnn-early-voting-takeaways-democratic-advantage
Election Day is still a month away, but more than 690,000 Americans have already voted across at least 29 states. There are signs emerging of the advantage Democrats have in motivating their voters – a trend that’s played out in polling all summer long.
In several states with key Senate or governor races this fall, Democrats make up a larger share of voters requesting ballots so far than they did at this point in 2024.
In Iowa, Democrats have made 67% of ballot requests, up from 54% at this point in 2024. In Pennsylvania, it’s 66%, up from 62%, and in Maine it’s 57%, up from 53%. And according to data from the North Carolina State Board of Elections, 42% of ballot requests are from Democrats, up from 36% at this point two years ago.
It’s worth noting that in all of those states except for Iowa, ballot requests at this point in 2022 were more Democratic than they are now.
The uptick in the share of requests from Democrats would be in line with polling, special election results and primary turnout, all of which have indicated Democrats may be more motivated to vote this November.
On the other hand, it could just be further evidence of Republicans continuing to shift to preferring other forms of voting.
An important caveat: While the fact that a person has voted is generally public information, your ballot itself is secret, so this data can’t tell us how many votes a party or candidate has won. That won’t be known until states start reporting results after the polls close on November 3.
Early voting data also only shows one slice of voters: a slice that is typically older and less Republican than the electorate as a whole.
Voting patterns have shifted in the last several years as the country has emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic.
As mail voting has fallen from its 2020 highs, voters 65 and older have made up a larger share of people choosing to vote that way, going from 27% of mail voters in 2020 to 31% in 2022 and 37% in 2024, according to CNN Exit Poll data.
That’s not unexpected. Mail voting can be a convenient option for older people who might have trouble getting to the polls. In many states where voters need an excuse to vote by mail, age itself can qualify as a reason to receive a mail-in ballot.
There are early signs that that trend is continuing this year.
In nearly every state for which there is comparable data, voters 65 and older make up a larger share of ballot requests this year than they did at this point in either 2022 or 2024.
Perhaps the most positive signs for Democrats so far come from Virginia, which has reported both by far the most total votes of any state in CNN’s count and is the only state which has reported substantial numbers of both early in-person and mail votes.
While Virginia voters don’t register by party, there’s a clear relationship between how a locality voted in 2024 and its relative pace of early voting.
Cities and counties that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris by more than 20 percentage points are at 78% of their turnout from this time in 2024, while those that voted for President Donald Trump by 20 points are at just 61%.
Partisan turnout, as measured by the share of voters who have only participated in one party’s primaries since 2022, also points to a considerable Democratic advantage in the early voting period relative to the same point in 2024.
While the turnout so far shows a clear advantage in Democratic motivation, Republican voters could close the gap as Election Day nears. It’s still early in the voting period – Virginians cast over 4.5 million votes in 2024 and over 3.4 million votes in 2025. The Senate race in Virginia is not expected to be competitive this year, and Republican voters may be more motivated in more highly contested races.
Still, two competitive House races in the state also suggest a move towards Democrats in terms of enthusiasm.
Democratic primary participants outnumber Republican primary participants by 15 points among votes cast so far in the 1st District and 18 points in the 2nd District. Both districts are battlegrounds currently represented by Republicans facing tough challengers: Rep. Rob Wittman in the 1st and Rep. Jen Kiggans in the 2nd.
At the same point in 2024, the partisan composition was relatively split in both districts, with Republican primary voters leading by about 3 points in the 1st District and Democratic primary voters leading by 2 points in the 2nd District.
Statewide, Democratic primary participants outpace Republicans by about 18 points, up from 8 points at the same point in 2024.
Data on pre-election voting is valuable but it does have limits.
Early vote data is compiled by CNN, the Associated Press, and the data firm Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofit advocacy groups, including insights into who is voting before November.
The number of votes cast so far is a tiny fraction of the roughly 57 million pre-election votes cast in 2022 and an even smaller share of the roughly 112 million votes cast overall in that election but is expected to grow substantially over the next few weeks.
The data so far is also largely limited to mail ballots, as very few states have started significant early in-person voting. In recent years mail voters have been much more Democratic, while early in-person voters have been more evenly split or Republican leaning.
发表回复