2026-09-30T18:00:08-04:00 / 福克斯新闻
支持罗杰斯的选民比支持埃尔-赛义德的选民更有可能改变投票意向
作者：达纳·布兰特顿，福克斯新闻
发布于2026年9月30日 美国东部时间下午6:00
前克林顿顾问抨击埃尔-赛义德为“不合格”参议员候选人
前克林顿顾问、民调专家马克·彭恩剖析最新选举民调数据，分析不断变化的选民情绪、关键人口趋势以及塑造选民意向的重大经济关切问题。
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根据一项最新福克斯新闻民调，密歇根选民对这场联邦参议员选举的两位候选人都存在顾虑，这也使得选情陷入胶着。
在密歇根可能投票选民中，民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德以微弱1个百分点领先共和党人迈克·罗杰斯，支持率为50%比49%。这项于周三发布的民调是本季首次针对可能投票选民开展的福克斯新闻民调，因此无法与此前的民调直接对比。
但在登记选民中，两者支持率几乎持平，埃尔-赛义德为51%，罗杰斯为48%。这与8月的民调结果相反，当时罗杰斯在登记选民中以51%比47%领先埃尔-赛义德4个百分点。
FOX NEWS POLL: VOTERS QUESTION WHETHER AI’S PROMISE OUTWEIGHS ITS RISKS
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除非特别说明，以下分析均基于可能投票选民样本。
支持埃尔-赛义德的选民中，87%表示已坚定自己的选择，高于罗杰斯支持者的80%。总体而言，15%的选民表示可能在投票前更换支持对象，其中包括18%的罗杰斯支持者和12%的埃尔-赛义德支持者。
FOX NEWS POLL: SQUEEZED BY COSTS, FRUSTRATED VOTERS TURN TO THE DEMOCRATS
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以下是这场选情胶着的原因。
认为“罗杰斯与特朗普总统过于亲近”而极度担忧的密歇根选民比例（39%），与认为“埃尔-赛义德政见过于自由化”的比例（36%）基本相当。
两人的好感度也不相上下：47%的选民对埃尔-赛义德评价积极，罗杰斯为44%。在登记选民中，对埃尔-赛义德的正面评价自8月以来上升了5个百分点，而对罗杰斯的正面评价则下降了4个百分点。
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埃尔-赛义德的优势群体包括传统民主党票仓：女性、黑人选民以及大学毕业生。他在45岁以下选民以及为数不多的工会家庭选民中也处于领先。
罗杰斯的最强支持群体包括男性、农村选民、白人福音派基督徒、已婚选民以及未获得大学学位的白人。
两位候选人都获得了本党近乎全员的支持。罗杰斯在共和党选民中获得95%的支持，埃尔-赛义德在民主党选民中获得93%的支持。此外，罗杰斯在MAGA共和党选民中获得99%的支持，在非MAGA共和党选民中获得88%的支持；埃尔-赛义德在DSA民主党选民中获得98%的支持，在非DSA民主党选民中获得90%的支持。为数不多的独立选民则小幅倾向埃尔-赛义德。
今年的政治格局对埃尔-赛义德有利。当被问及希望哪个政党控制参议院时，民主党以52%比47%领先5个百分点。但民主党人要借此优势，埃尔-赛义德需要在竞争激烈的初选后巩固民主党选民的支持——因为11%支持其初选对手黑利·史蒂文斯的可能投票选民表示，他们计划投票给罗杰斯。
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“密歇根参议院选举的独特之处在于，短期有利于民主党的政治因素，被选民对民主党候选人的担忧部分抵消，”负责福克斯新闻民调的共和党民调专家达伦·肖说道，他与民主党人克里斯·安德森共同开展这项民调工作。
“对罗杰斯来说，坏消息是埃尔-赛义德在巩固民主党选民支持方面取得了进展，考虑到选民对经济的担忧，他还有进一步上升的空间。”
四成密歇根选民表示自己的财务状况正在走下坡路，他们以25个百分点的优势支持埃尔-赛义德。但占比最大的近一半选民表示家庭财务状况维持稳定，他们以13个百分点的优势支持罗杰斯；而为数不多的财务状况改善的选民则以36个百分点的优势支持罗杰斯。
尽管如此，70%的选民认为生活成本对他们的参议院选举投票极为重要，这部分选民以13个百分点的优势支持埃尔-赛义德。在占比四成、关注美国对以色列政策的选民中，埃尔-赛义德领先8个百分点；在关注人工智能技术的选民中，他领先17个百分点。与之相反，在44%关注移民问题的选民中，罗杰斯领先26个百分点。
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一半的密歇根选民认为特朗普总统对他们的参议院选举投票极为重要，这部分选民以22个百分点的优势支持埃尔-赛义德。
2024年，特朗普以不到两个百分点的优势赢得密歇根州，而罗杰斯在该州参议院选举中以不到半个百分点的差距输给了民主党人埃利萨·斯洛特金。
选民对本届政府的不满拖累了罗杰斯，近六成选民对总统的表现表示不认可。虽然40%的选民表示认可，但并非所有人都支持罗杰斯（认可率为93%）。总体而言，他在19%的特朗普反对者中仍具有竞争力，即便有28%“只是有些不认可”特朗普的选民更倾向于埃尔-赛义德。
在即将接替任期届满的民主党州长格蕾琴·惠特默的州长选举中，民主党人乔斯林·本森以54%比45%领先共和党人约翰·詹姆斯。
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12%在参议院选举中支持罗杰斯的选民会跨党派支持本森。
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本次民调于2026年9月24日至28日开展，由灯塔研究公司（民主党）和肖&公司研究公司（共和党）联合指导。福克斯新闻民调通过全州选民档案随机抽取1203名密歇根登记选民进行访谈。受访者通过固定电话（114人）、手机（794人）完成访谈，或在收到短信后在线完成调查（295人）。登记选民样本的抽样误差范围为±2.5个百分点，针对1028名可能投票选民的子样本，抽样误差范围为±3个百分点。
子样本结果的抽样误差更高。除抽样误差外，问题措辞和提问顺序也会影响调查结果。权重目标的制定依据包括最新的美国社区调查、福克斯新闻选民分析和选民档案数据。通常会针对年龄、种族、教育程度和地区变量进行加权，以确保受访者的人口结构特征能够代表登记选民群体。可能投票选民是基于概率统计模型确定的，该模型参考了过去的投票记录、对本次选举的兴趣程度、投票意向、年龄、教育程度、种族、族裔和婚姻状况。只有当样本量至少达到N=100时，才会展示子群体的调查结果。
福克斯新闻的维多利亚·巴拉拉为本报告撰稿。
*作为民调部门负责人，达纳·布兰特顿负责福克斯新闻民调项目，并监督福克斯新闻选民分析选举调查工作。
Fox News Poll: Michigan voters split between El-Sayed and Rogers
2026-09-30T18:00:08-04:00 / Fox News
More Rogers backers say they could reconsider their vote than El-Sayed supporters
By Dana Blanton, Fox News
Published September 30, 2026 6:00pm EDT
Ex-Clinton advisor slams El-Sayed as ‘unacceptable’ Senate candidate
Former Clinton advisor and pollster Mark Penn breaks down the latest election polling data, analyzing shifting voter sentiment, key demographic trends and critical economic concerns shaping the electorate.
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Michigan voters have concerns about both candidates in the U.S. Senate race and that leads to a tight contest, according to a new Fox News poll.
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has a slim 1-point edge against Republican Mike Rogers, 50-49%, among Michigan likely voters. The survey, released on Wednesday, is the first Fox News Poll this season among likely voters, so a direct comparison can’t be made to previous polls.
Yet among registered voters, the preference is almost identical, 51% El-Sayed vs. 48% Rogers. That’s a reversal since August, when Rogers was ahead by 4 points among registered voters, 51% to El-Sayed’s 47%.
FOX NEWS POLL: VOTERS QUESTION WHETHER AI’S PROMISE OUTWEIGHS ITS RISKS
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The analysis below is among likely voters, unless otherwise noted.
More of El-Sayed’s backers feel certain of their choice (87%) than Rogers’ (80%). Overall, 15% say they could switch their pick before voting, including 18% of Rogers’ supporters and 12% of El-Sayed’s.
FOX NEWS POLL: SQUEEZED BY COSTS, FRUSTRATED VOTERS TURN TO THE DEMOCRATS
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Here’s why the race is tight.
Roughly equal numbers of Michiganders say they are extremely concerned Rogers is too close to President Donald Trump (39%) as say El-Sayed’s views are too liberal (36%).
And their favorable ratings are also close: 47% view El-Sayed positively compared to 44% for Rogers. Among registered voters, positive views of El-Sayed increased by 5 points since August while Rogers’ declined by four points.
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El-Sayed’s best groups include those who traditionally go Democratic: women, Black voters and those with a college degree. He’s also ahead with voters under age 45 and the small subgroup of union households.
The groups giving Rogers some of his strongest support include men, rural voters, White evangelical Christians, married voters and Whites without a college degree.
Both candidates receive near-universal backing from their party. Rogers receives 95% among Republicans, while it’s 93% for El-Sayed among Democrats. In addition, Rogers gets 99% of MAGA Republicans and 88% of non-MAGA Republicans, while El-Sayed garners 98% of DSA Democrats and 90% of non-DSA Democrats. The small number of independents narrowly favor El-Sayed.
This year’s political landscape favors El-Sayed. The Democrats hold a 5-point advantage when voters are asked which party they want to control the Senate, 52% to 47%. But to capitalize on that, he’ll need to consolidate Democratic support after a contentious primary because 11% of likely voters who backed his primary opponent Haley Stevens say they plan to vote for Rogers.
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“The Michigan Senate race is unique in that short-term political forces favoring the Democrats are somewhat offset by concerns about the Democratic candidate,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson.
“The bad news for Rogers is El-Sayed has made progress shoring up Democratic support and has room to grow given voter concerns about the economy.”
Four in ten Michiganders say they are falling behind financially, and they back El-Sayed by 25 points. But the largest share, nearly half, describe their family as holding steady, and they favor Rogers by 13 points, while the small number who are getting ahead prefer Rogers by 36 points.
Still, for 7 in 10 voters, the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote, and they back El-Sayed by 13 points. He also has advantages among the 4 in 10 focused on U.S. policy toward Israel (+8 points) and AI technology (+17 points). Conversely, Rogers is favored by 26 points among the 44% focused on immigration.
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Half of Michigan voters consider Trump extremely important to their Senate vote, and they favor El-Sayed by 22 points.
In 2024, Trump won Michigan by less than two percentage points, while Rogers lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by less than half a point.
Voter frustration with the administration is a drag on Rogers, as nearly 6 in 10 disapprove of the president’s performance. While 40% approve, not all support Rogers (93%). He remains competitive with support from 19% of Trump disapprovers overall, even as 28% who only “somewhat” disapprove of Trump prefer El-Sayed.
In the gubernatorial race to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Democrat Jocelyn Benson leads Republican John James 54% to 45% among likely voters.
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Twelve percent of those backing Rogers in the Senate race cross-party lines to favor Benson.
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Conducted September 24-28, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,203 Michigan registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (114) and cellphones (794) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (295). Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points and for the subsample of 1,028 likely voters it is ±3 percentage points.
Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, intention to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity and marital status. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
As head of the polling unit, Dana Blanton runs the Fox News Poll and oversees the Fox News Voter Analysis election survey.
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