2026-09-26T10:30:30.442Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/26/politics/republicans-crime-immigration-trans-midterms
佛罗里达州前共和党国会众议员马特·盖兹在X平台上回应一名首次投票给民主党的选民时，总结了共和党本周中期选举竞选信息的核心内容。
“我也讨厌这场战争，”盖兹对这名男子说，“但民主党想要让你的孩子变性。”
跨性别议题在2024年大选中似乎是一个极具影响力的话题——唐纳德·特朗普总统团队发布了一则效果不错的广告，宣称民主党候选人卡玛拉·哈里斯“支持‘他们/她们’这类代词，而特朗普总统站在你这边”。但本周CNN的一项新民调显示，这套竞选策略在本次选举中不会再那么有效。
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其他几项共和党核心议题似乎也是如此。共和党拥有选民支持度较高的既定议题，他们也一直试图聚焦这些议题。但眼下民调显示，这些都不是选民的首要优先级。
或许比以往任何一次中期选举都更突出的是，其他议题都被经济议题盖过了风头。
而经济这个议题，是特朗普的所作所为拱手送给民主党手中的大礼。
共和党在2024年总统大选中曾大量围绕跨性别政策展开攻势，这也成为其2026年广告宣传活动的固定内容。
但CNN的新民调显示，登记选民仅以微弱优势支持共和党在该议题上的立场，支持率为37%对32%。
最引人注目的或许是，仅有25%的选民称跨性别议题“对他们的投票极为重要”。这在本次民调测试的11个议题中排名最低，落后于堕胎、关税和犯罪议题，更远远落后于医疗保健和投票议题。
同样，CNN在7月进行的民调显示，仅有35%的独立选民认为民主党过于关注跨性别议题，而认为共和党过于关注该议题的独立选民占比为31%。
民主党自2024年以来已经淡化了对跨性别权利的支持，在儿童体育赛事这类议题上向中间立场靠拢。其中一些民主党人甚至还就自己的立场投放了广告。
诚然，聚焦跨性别政策可能会提高共和党的投票率，鉴于共和党选民基础热情不高，这一点可能会对共和党有利。但即便如此，也仅有34%的共和党人表示该议题对他们的投票极为重要——仅比29%的持相同看法的民主党人高出一点点。
移民是共和党竞选活动的另一个核心议题。考虑到特朗普已将非法越境人数降至历史低点，这似乎对共和党来说是一个有力的宣传点。
同时有50%的选民表示移民议题对他们的投票极为重要。这是一个很高的比例；相较于2022年、2018年和2006年中期选举时持相同看法的选民比例，这一数字有所上升。
但这里有一个陷阱：这一数字上升的原因是民主党现在也非常关注移民议题——显然这要归咎于特朗普不受欢迎的驱逐政策。
2022年，共和党人认为移民是极为重要议题的比例比民主党高出35个百分点，为65%对30%。如今这一差距缩小到了10个百分点——60%对50%。
在移民议题上，共和党仍小幅领先，CNN民调显示选民以41%对36%的比例更支持共和党。但其他民调则显示民主党领先。
矛盾的是，边境局势的放缓似乎让该议题对选民来说不再那么紧迫。
共和党在犯罪议题上的领先幅度超过其他任何议题，支持率为40%对29%。
但仅有41%的登记选民表示犯罪议题对他们的投票极为重要。
同样，近年来边境非法越境人数的大幅减少——特朗普经常吹嘘这一点，但这一趋势是在拜登政府期间开始的——似乎让该议题对选民来说不再那么突出。
最近几周共和党关注的另一个焦点是抨击极左翼主播哈桑·皮克。这不仅体现在他们针对密歇根州民主党参议院候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德的竞选活动中——埃尔赛义德在初选期间曾与皮克一同竞选——也针对其他民主党人。
但一项新民调显示，这一策略并未真正渗透到不密切关注政治的人群中。
《纽约时报》-锡耶纳学院在密歇根州进行的民调显示，了解皮克的可能选民普遍不喜欢他。但60%的受访者对他没有任何看法，54%的人甚至从未听说过他。
仅有13%的独立选民对皮克有看法。
有一个无可争议的重大议题：经济。它可能比很长一段时间以来都更占据主导地位。
CNN民调显示，68%的登记选民表示经济议题对他们的投票极为重要。这一比例几乎追平了该议题此前的最高纪录——2022年中期选举时该比例在59%至69%之间。
除此之外，21世纪仅有一次中期选举中经济议题的关注度突破50%：2010年（56%）。
重申一下：通常该比例都低于50%；但如今达到了68%。
由于特朗普在经济问题上的支持率仅为27%（不认可度73%），在通胀问题上的不认可度更是高达80%，民主党在这一历来有利于共和党的议题上领先了7个百分点。
共和党似乎投入了大量精力，试图让选举聚焦于其他议题，呼应了那位对民众负担能力和汽油价格担忧不屑一顾的总统的态度。
但眼下，几乎没有证据表明这一策略奏效——甚至可能根本行不通。
The GOP wants to talk about crime, immigration and trans issues. Voters don’t
2026-09-26T10:30:30.442Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/26/politics/republicans-crime-immigration-trans-midterms
Republican former Florida congressman Matt Gaetz summed up a large portion of the GOP’s midterm message this week when he responded to a man who said he was voting Democratic for the first time ever.
“I hate the war too,” Gaetz told the man on X. “But the Democrats want to trans your kids.”
The trans issue seemed to be a potent one in the 2024 election — President Donald Trump’s team cut an effective ad that professed Democratic nominee Kamala Harris was “for they/them. President Trump is for you.” But a new CNN poll this week suggests that playbook won’t be as effective this time.
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And that seems to be the case for several other red-meat GOP issues, as well. Republicans have well-established topics that voters favor them on — and that they’ve sought to focus on. But, right now, polls show those aren’t voters’ top priorities.
Perhaps more than in any other recent midterm, other issues are simply being swamped by the economy.
And that’s an issue that Trump’s actions have handed to Democrats on a silver platter.
The GOP focused on transgender policies extensively in the 2024 presidential election. And it’s been a fixture in its 2026 ad campaign, too.
But the new CNN poll shows registered voters only prefer the GOP by a small margin on that issue, 37%-32%.
And perhaps most strikingly, just 25% called the issue “extremely important” to their vote. That was the lowest of 11 issues tested, behind abortion, tariffs and crime — and far behind healthcare and voting issues.
Similarly, CNN polling in July showed just 35% of independents said Democrats were too focused on transgender issues, compared to 31% who said the same of Republicans.
Democrats have deemphasized their support for transgender rights since 2024 and tacked closer to the middle on issues like kids’ sports. And some of them are even running ads on their positions.
It’s certainly true that focusing on transgender policies could drive GOP turnout, which Republicans could use thanks to their unenthusiastic base. But even there, just 34% of Republicans say the issue is extremely important to their vote — barely more than the 29% of Democrats who say the same.
Immigration is another mainstay of Republican campaign efforts. And it would seem to be a strong message for the GOP, given Trump has slowed illegal border-crossings to record lows.
It’s also something 50% of voters say is extremely important to their vote. That’s a high number; it’s an increase over those who said the same in the 2022, 2018 and 2006 midterm elections.
But there’s a catch: The reason that number has risen is because Democrats now care about it a lot, too — apparently thanks to Trump’s unpopular deportation policies.
In 2022, Republicans were 35 points more likely than Democrats to label immigration as an extremely important issue, 65%-30%. Today, the gap is down to 10 points — 60%-50%.
Republicans still seem to have a small edge on immigration, with voters picking them over the Democratic Party 41%-36% in the CNN poll. But other polls show Democrats are ahead.
And, paradoxically, the slowdown on the border would seem to make the issue a lot less urgent for voters.
Republicans lead on this issue by more than any other, 40%-29%.
But just 41% of registered voters say the issue is extremely important to their vote.
And again, the major reductions we’ve seen in recent years — which Trump frequently touts but began during the Biden administration — have seemingly made the issue less salient for voters.
Another major focal point for the GOP in recent weeks has been invoking far-left streamer Hasan Piker. And that’s not just been in their campaign against Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, who campaigned with Piker during his primary, but other Democrats as well.
But a new poll suggests it’s not really penetrating with those who don’t follow politics closely.
The New York Times-Siena College poll in Michigan showed Piker was quite unpopular among likely voters who know him. But 6 in 10 offered no opinion about him, and 54% said they hadn’t even heard of him.
Only 13% of independents had an opinion of Piker.
And there is one incontrovertibly big issue: the economy. It might be a more dominant point than it’s been in a long time.
The CNN poll shows 68% of registered voters say the economy is extremely important to their vote. That’s virtually tied with the previous high watermark for that issue, which clocked in between 59% and 69% in the 2022 midterm elections.
Besides that, the economy only cracked 50% in one other midterm in the 21st Century: 2010 (56%).
To reiterate: it’s usually under 50%; today it’s 68%.
Thanks to Trump’s 73% disapproval rating on the economy and his 80% disapproval rating on inflation, Democrats have taken a seven-point lead on this issue — which historically favors Republicans.
The GOP seems to be dedicating significant efforts to make the election about other things, echoing a president who has been remarkably dismissive of concerns about affordability and gas prices.
But right now, there’s very little evidence it’s working — or even could work.
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