2026-09-24T05:00:00-04:00 / 福克斯新闻
重划选区优势与资金优势，能否帮助共和党克服通胀、特朗普低迷民调？
作者：保罗·施泰因豪泽 福克斯新闻
发布于2026年9月24日 美国东部时间凌晨5:00
共和党全国委员会主席鲜明对比中期选举：“常识”vs“极左翼”
共和党全国委员会主席乔·格鲁特斯在接受福克斯数字新闻采访时，将中期选举之战描述为特朗普的“美国梦”与民主党“社会主义”愿景之间的较量
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距离选举日还有六周，已有数个州提前开始投票，主流观点认为共和党可能在中期选举中遭遇挫折。
在捍卫其脆弱的众议院和参议院多数席位之际，共和党正在对抗政治历史——传统上，总统所在政党会在中期选举中失去国会席位。他们还在对抗食品杂货和汽油价格高企的问题，民调显示这场与伊朗不得人心的战争以及唐纳德·特朗普总统低迷的支持率都让他们陷入困境。
但民主党也背负着自身的问题：从党内左翼与建制派之间的意识形态内战，给共和党提供了大量政治弹药，到自身形象乏善可陈。再加上共和党大举投放攻击广告，让民主党在资金上处于重大劣势。
以下六大因素可能决定共和党能否击退可能出现的蓝色浪潮，保住国会权力。
最新福克斯新闻中期选举民调：谁占优谁遇挫
1. 通胀
距离选举日还有六周，就在投票开始之际，燃油价格持续上涨。据美国汽车协会（AAA）数据，全国平均汽油价格接近每加仑4.50美元，柴油价格突破每加仑6.50美元。
民调显示，包括生活成本在内的经济问题是今年中期选举选民最关心的议题。这意味着2024年助力特朗普和共和党取得压倒性胜利的议题，在2026年成为了重大负担。而近期因中东地区新一轮冲突、俄乌战争以及对俄罗斯柴油产业的袭击推高的油价，对共和党毫无益处。
“在拜登任内油价比‘特朗普时期’高得多，几乎所有其他商品价格也是如此，”总统周一在社交媒体帖子中说道，他在此处指代前总统乔·拜登。
尽管特朗普和共和党领导人将矛头指向拜登，但民调显示，选民越来越将当前的经济和通胀压力归咎于现政府。
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特朗普预测伊朗战争将在中期选举后结束，油价将下跌
上周，在总统声称燃油成本“是我们所做一切的极低代价”并指向对伊朗核设施的袭击后，民主党对特朗普和共和党进行了猛烈批评。
与此同时，最新的福克斯新闻民调显示，绝大多数选民认为民主党更能妥善处理通胀问题。
但当被问及整体经济时，路透社/益普索和NBC新闻近期的全国民调显示，两党在处理经济问题的能力上不相上下。
“我的听众们希望所有商品价格都能下降，”新罕布什尔州的中右翼脱口秀主持人杰克·希思告诉福克斯数字新闻。
“人们选举特朗普总统是为了降低物价、改善生活状况，而人们如今正期待这种改善，”《新罕布什尔早安》主持人希思强调，“他们期待特朗普兑现承诺。”
2. 特朗普的影响力
“我请求你们，就假装我再次参选一次，”总统上周在摇摆州北卡罗来纳州的竞选活动中说道。
这是特朗普本月初在共和党首次中期选举代表大会上多次使用的台词。
面对民调显示的与民主党之间的热情差距，总统和共和党领导人希望提振“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）基础选民的热情——这类选民在特朗普未参选时往往不会投票。尽管福克斯新闻民调显示，特朗普在所有选民中的支持率仅为39%，但在自称MAGA共和党人的群体中，其支持率仍高达98%。
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但一些长期支持特朗普的盟友在面临艰难连任时开始与总统划清界限。
共和党众议员玛丽亚·萨拉扎尔两年前在南佛罗里达州第27国会选区以20个百分点的优势连任。但由于特朗普低迷的民调可能成为她的拖累，萨拉扎尔上周发布的电视广告批评特朗普政府的移民执法“做得太过火”，并表示“2024年帮助你们入主白宫的拉美裔如今感到被背叛”。
与此同时，周一，两位正参与激烈参议院竞选的特朗普盟友——艾奥瓦州众议员阿什利·辛森和密歇根州前众议员迈克·罗杰斯——与总统决裂，要求迅速结束与伊朗的战争。
观察脆弱的共和党议员是会与总统进一步拉开距离，还是靠拢特朗普以提振共和党选民的投票热情。
3. 民主党左倾倾向
共和党正试图将通常对执政党进行的公投式选举，转变为选择型选举，他们聚焦今年民主党初选期间极左翼和社会主义候选人击败更主流民主党人的重大胜利。
“在一个又一个州，民主党建制派被推翻，取而代之的是疯狂的疯子和激进分子。他们自称民主社会主义者，但实际上他们是共产主义者，”特朗普在中期选举代表大会上指责道。
这种竞选说辞在密歇根州至关重要的参议院竞选中尤为突出。共和党候选人、前众议员迈克·罗杰斯在接受福克斯商业频道采访时，谈及民主党竞争对手阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德称：“我们不想要这种社会主义胡言乱语出现在我们州，这家伙太极端了。”
12场将决定参院控制权的参议院竞选
民调结果助力共和党的“常识vs疯狂”竞选说辞。
在最新福克斯新闻全国民调中，55%的登记选民对美国民主社会主义者（DSA）持负面看法，仅有三成受访者对该组织持正面看法。
福克斯新闻民调是最新一项全国性调查，显示尽管美国民主社会主义者在民主党人中获得了更多支持，但该组织和美国更广泛的社会主义运动面临全国范围内的广泛质疑。
尽管共和党继续全面施压，希望动摇未决选民，但民主党内部对这一策略的有效性存在分歧。
温和派政治行动委员会创始人兼主席泰·斯特朗警告称，共和党的剧本“绝对可能奏效”。
但加州众议员罗·卡纳的关键顾问香农·杰克逊认为，共和党是“在无中生有。我认为他们试图炒作美国民主社会主义者议题，但根本站不住脚。”
与此同时，今年社会主义和左翼候选人在初选中的崛起，并未帮助民主党提升自身形象。
民主党支持率在2024年大选后的几个月里跌至历史低点，最新福克斯新闻民调显示，民主党仍处于劣势，55%的选民对该党持负面看法。
4. 共和党资金优势
共和党相比民主党拥有可观的资金优势，他们正在选举日前的最后阶段加以利用。
尽管许多关键选区的民主党候选人筹款额超过了共和党对手，但共和党全国委员会的现金储备仍远高于民主党全国委员会。
包括特朗普盟友支持的MAGA公司在内的共和党关联外部团体，正大量投放广告，试图克服不利的政治环境，扭转局面。
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特朗普为得克萨斯州联邦参议院候选人出席筹款活动
据追踪广告支出的知名全国性公司AdImpact的数据，自9月初以来，共和党团体在10场关键参议院竞事中的广告支出已超过民主党对手8300多万美元。
尽管资金优势并不总能决定选举结果，但战略家表示，在势均力敌的竞选中，资金优势往往能起到关键作用。在AdImpact关注的10场参议院竞选中，民主党夏季在广告支出上的优势已被共和党后来的大规模投放彻底扭转。
尽管共和党投入的大部分广告资金用于保护脆弱席位，但这笔资金可能有助于共和党争取密歇根州和新罕布什尔州的民主党现任参议院席位。
5. 重划选区之战
13个月前，德克萨斯州通过了新的国会选区重划地图，为特朗普推动为共和党在中期选举前增加更多倾向共和党的选区的努力取得了首次重大胜利。
时至今日，在为保住微弱的众议院多数席位而战之际，共和党是大赢家，党派重划选区可能为他们在中期选举前额外赢得10个倾向共和党的国会席位。
但重划地图和赢得席位是两回事，一些选举分析师警告称，共和党面临的严峻逆风可能导致共和党远未达到重划选区之战前的预期。
6. 众议院战场收窄，参议院版图扩大
众议院共有435个席位，但库克政治报告显示，争夺众议院多数席位的战斗可能最终仅取决于其评级为“势均力敌”的21个选区。
福克斯新闻实力排名将17个席位列为真正的势均力敌。
数十年的选区操纵，包括本届中期选举周期中的中期重划选区，已经收窄了众议院的战场，即使出现蓝色浪潮，也可能限制民主党夺取席位的数量。
尽管众议院竞争性席位数量仍处于历史低位，但参议院的竞选版图正在扩大，这对民主党来说是积极信号。
民主党在密歇根州和新罕布什尔州的开放席位竞选中感受到了压力，这两个州是他们试图保住目前共和党以53-47控制的参议院席位的必守之地。
但阿拉斯加、堪萨斯、内布拉斯加州和艾奥瓦州等红色州的参议院对决如今被视为竞争激烈。
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证据就是：副总统JD·万斯上周在艾奥瓦州和堪萨斯州进行了竞选活动。
但近期民调也让共和党有希望拿下倾向蓝色的明尼苏达州的民主党现任开放参议院席位。
保罗·施泰因豪泽为福克斯新闻横跨全美报道全国竞选活动
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Republicans face brutal midterm headwinds. Six forces could help them defy history.
2026-09-24T05:00:00-04:00 / Fox News
Will redistricting gains and a cash advantage be enough for the GOP to overcome inflation, Trump’s underwater poll numbers?
By Paul Steinhauser Fox News
Published September 24, 2026 5:00am EDT
RNC chair draws stark midterm contrast: ‘Common sense’ vs. ‘extreme left’
RNC Chair Joe Gruters, in a Fox Digital interview, casts midterm battle as fight between Trump’s ‘American dream’ and Democrats’ ‘socialist’ vision
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With six weeks to go until Election Day and early voting already underway in a handful of states, the conventional wisdom is that Republicans may be in for some setbacks in the midterms.
As it defends its fragile House and Senate majorities, the GOP is fighting political history, which has traditionally seen the president’s party lose congressional seats during the midterms. It’s also battling high costs at the grocery stores and gas pumps tied to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran, as well as President Donald Trump’s underwater approval ratings.
But Democrats are saddled with their own issues, from an ideological civil war between the party’s left wing and the establishment that has handed Republicans plenty of political ammunition, to a brand image that’s nothing to brag about. Add to that the Democrats’ major disadvantage as the GOP floods the airwaves with attack ads.
Here are six forces that will likely determine whether Republicans can turn back a possible blue wave and hold power in Congress.
WHO’S UP AND WHO’S DOWN IN THE LATEST FOX NEWS MIDTERM ELECTION POLLING
Gas prices have ticked up in recent weeks amid renewed fighting in the Middle East.(Aaron Schwartz/Reuters)
1. Inflation
Six weeks until Election Day, and just as the voting begins, fuel prices keep rising, with the national average for gas nearly $4.50 per gallon and diesel topping $6.50 per gallon, according to AAA.
Public opinion polls point to the economy, including the cost of living, as the top issue for voters in this year’s midterms. That means that the issue that boosted Trump and Republicans to sweeping victories in 2024 is a major liability in 2026. And the rising prices in recent weeks, fueled by renewed fighting in the war with Iran and Ukraine and attacks on Russia’s diesel industry, are doing the GOP no favors.
“Gas prices were much higher under Biden than under ‘TRUMP.’ So were almost all other prices,” the president argued Monday in a social media post, as he referred to former President Joe Biden.
While Trump and Republican leaders point fingers at Biden, polls indicate voters increasingly place the blame for ongoing economic and inflation pressures on the current administration.
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Trump predicts Iran war will end after midterms, gas prices will drop
Democrats last week heavily criticized Trump and Republicans after the president argued that fuel costs were “a very inexpensive price to pay for what we’ve done,” as he pointed to the attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Meanwhile, the latest Fox News poll indicated that by a wide margin, the Democrats are considered the party that would better handle inflation.
But when asked about the overall economy, recent national surveys from Reuters/Ipsos and NBC News had the GOP and Democrats all knotted up on which party would better handle the issue.
“My listeners are looking for prices to come down across the board,” New Hampshire-based center-right talk radio host Jack Heath told Fox News Digital.
“People elected President Trump to lower prices and improve their situation and people are looking for that improvement,” Heath, host of “Good Morning NH,” emphasized. “They’re looking for Trump to deliver on his promises.”
2. Trump’s influence
“I’m asking you to just pretend I’m on the ballot just one more time,” the president said last week during a campaign stop in battleground North Carolina.
It’s a line Trump repeatedly used earlier this month, at the GOP’s first-ever midterm convention.
Facing what polls indicate is an enthusiasm gap with Democrats, the president and Republican leaders are hoping to energize the MAGA base, which doesn’t always vote when Trump isn’t on the ballot. While the president’s approval rating in the Fox News poll stands at 39% among all voters, it remains at a sky-high 98% among self-described MAGA Republicans.
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President Donald Trump speaks during the Republican convention at American Airlines Center on Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026, in Dallas, Texas.(The Dallas Morning News via GettyImages)
But some longtime Trump allies are starting to break with the president as they face challenging re-elections.
GOP Rep. Maria Salazar won re-election two years ago by 20 points in South Florida’s 27th Congressional District. But with Trump’s negative poll numbers a potential anchor around her, Salazar last week released a TV ad criticizing the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement as having “gone too far,” and that “Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.”
Meanwhile, on Monday, two Trump allies who are in heated Senate battles — Rep. Ashley Hinson of Iowa and former Rep. Mike Rogers of Michigan, broke with the president as they demanded a swift end to the war with Iran.
Watch whether vulnerable Republicans create more distance from the president, or move toward Trump to juice Republican turnout.
3. Democrats’ Leftward Lurch
Republicans are aiming to turn what’s normally a referendum on the party in power into a choice election, as they spotlight major Democratic primary victories this year by far-left and socialist candidates over more mainstream Democrats.
“In state after state, the Democrat establishment has been overthrown and replaced by crazed lunatics and radicals. They call themselves Democrat socialists, but actually, they’re communists,” Trump charged at the midterm convention.
The messaging is pronounced in Michigan’s crucial Senate race, where GOP nominee former Rep. Mike Rogers, as he referred to Democratic rival Abdul El-Sayed, told FOX Business this week, “We don’t want this socialism nonsense in our state, and this guy is too extreme.”
12 SENATE RACES THAT WILL DETERMINE WHO CONTROLS THE CHAMBER
Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate Abdul El-Sayed speaks to supporters at an election-night rally at the Majestic Theatre on Aug. 4, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan.(Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Polling gives a boost to the GOP’s “commonsense vs. crazy” messaging.
Fifty-five percent of registered voters surveyed in the latest Fox News national poll held an unfavorable view of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), while only three in 10 saw the DSA in a positive light.
The Fox News poll was the latest national survey to show that while the DSA has gained traction among Democrats, the group and the broader socialist movement in America face significant national skepticism.
While the GOP full court press continues, in hopes of swaying undecided voters, Democrats are divided on its effectiveness.
Ty Strong, founder and president of the Moderate PAC, warned that the GOP playbook “absolutely could be effective.”
But Shannon Jackson, a key consultant and advisor to progressive leader Rep. Ro Khanna of California, argued that Republicans are “reaching for things. I think the DSA issue is something they’re trying to make something, but it is not.”
Meanwhile, this year’s primary surge by socialist and left-wing candidates isn’t helping Democrats boost their brand.
The party’s favorable ratings hit historic lows in the months following the 2024 election, and the latest Fox News poll indicates Democrats are still well underwater, with 55% of voters viewing the party in an unfavorable light.
4. GOP’s Money Bomb
Republicans enjoy a formidable cash advantage over the Democrats, and they’re using it in the final stretch leading up to Election Day.
While Democratic candidates in many key races have outraised their GOP opponents, the Republican National Committee remains far ahead of the rival Democratic National Committee when it comes to cash-on-hand.
And GOP-aligned outside groups, including the Trump-allied MAGA Inc., are opening the floodgates when it comes to ad spending, in order to try and level the playing field by overcoming the difficult political environment.
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Trump headlines fundraiser for Texas US Senate nominee
Republican groups have outspent their Democratic counterparts by more than $83 million to run spots in ten crucial Senate races since the start of September, according to figures from AdImpact, a nationally known firm that tracks ad spending.
While a financial advantage is not always decisive, strategists say it can often move the needle in a close contest. And in the 10 Senate races spotlighted by AdImpact, a onetime Democratic ad spending advantage over the summer turned into a major GOP deluge.
While much of the ad dollars dished out by Republicans are to protect vulnerable seats, the money may help as the GOP works to flip open-Democrat-held Senate seats in Michigan and New Hampshire.
5. Redistricting Wars
Thirteen months ago, Texas passed a new congressional redistricting map, giving Trump his first major victory in his push to give Republicans a big boost heading into the midterm elections by drawing more right-leaning districts.
Fast-forward to present day, and as they fight to hold their razor-thin House majority, Republicans were the big winners, with partisan redistricting netting them potentially 10 additional right-leaning congressional seats in time for the midterms.
But redrawing the maps and winning the seats are two different things, and some election analysts caution that the fierce headwinds facing the GOP could lead to Republicans falling far short of their original expectations heading into the redistricting wars.
6. House Field Narrows, Senate Map Broadens
There are 435 seats in the House of Representatives, but the Cook Report suggests the battle for the chamber’s majority could come down to just 21 districts it rates as a toss-up.
The Fox News Power Rankings list 17 seats as true toss-ups.
Fox News Power Rankings forecast on the House of Representatives(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Decades of gerrymander, including this cycle’s mid-decade redistricting, have made a major impact by narrowing the House battlefield, which may limit the number of pickups by the Democrats even if a blue wave forms.
While the number of competitive House seats stays historically small, the Senate map is widening, which is a positive sign for Democrats.
Democrats are feeling the heat in open-seat contests in Michigan and New Hampshire, two must-holds for them as they try to win back a Senate currently controlled 53-47 by the GOP.
But Senate showdowns in red states, including Alaska, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa, are now considered very competitive.
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Need proof: Vice President JD Vance campaigned in Iowa and Kansas last week.
But recent polling is also giving Republicans hope they can flip the Democrat-controlled open Senate seat in blue-leaning Minnesota.
Paul Steinhauser covers the national campaign trail from coast to coast for Fox News
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https://www.foxnews.com/video/6404225659112
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