2026年9月23日 美国东部时间上午10:58 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
作者：艾米丽·梅·查霍尔 新闻编辑
艾米丽·梅·查霍尔是CBSNews.com的记者兼新闻编辑，通常报道突发新闻、极端天气与气候议题。她此前曾为《洛杉矶时报》、BuzzFeed和《新闻周刊》等媒体撰稿。
阅读完整简历
芝加哥大学气候影响实验室发布的报告显示，在当前厄尔尼诺现象的前九个月里，预计将有超过45.1万人因极端高温死亡，这一数字高于正常年份。
该研究机构周三在一份新闻稿中表示：“这还不包括本次厄尔尼诺可能成为有记录以来最强厄尔尼诺，由此引发的高温、降雨模式改变带来的干旱、野火和洪水所造成的影响。”
地图显示哪些地区面临最高风险
研究人员称，全球南方国家预计将受到最严重的冲击，尼日利亚、苏丹、尼日尔和乍得的高温相关死亡人数总和预计将超过6.5万。菲律宾、越南、泰国、柬埔寨和印度尼西亚的死亡人数合计预计接近4万，巴西和印度也可能出现较高的死亡人数。
这张彩色编码地图展示了芝加哥大学气候影响实验室最新报告预测的2026年9月全球范围内相较于正常年份新增的高温相关死亡病例分布情况。颜色越深代表死亡人数集中程度越高。 气候影响实验室
气候影响实验室联合创始人迈克尔·格林斯通在一份声明中表示：“全球预计的死亡总人数规模之大令人震惊，但这些死者都是父母、子女、祖父母和邻居，是通勤上班、照顾家人、认真生活的普通人。”
厄尔尼诺是一种气候模式，其特征之一是赤道附近太平洋部分海域的海水温度高于平均水平。它会影响全球范围内的极端天气事件，不同地区受到的影响方式和程度各不相同。在部分地区，厄尔尼诺的到来与酷暑、干旱和洪水相关，而当厄尔尼诺强度特别大时，比如今年，这些灾害会更加严重。
气象学家自今年夏季厄尔尼诺形成以来，就一直警告其可能带来历史性后果。世界气象组织本月早些时候预测，本次厄尔尼诺可能成为有记录以来最强的一次，其最严重的影响尚未到来。
2026年9月5日，印度尼西亚中加里曼丹省普拉恩皮萨奥，一名消防员在扑灭泥炭地森林野火时喷水。美联社照片/雷吉娜·萨夫里，资料图
联合国机构预测，这场“超强”现象的强度峰值将在2026年底左右到来。美国气候预测中心预计，厄尔尼诺现象将持续到北半球冬季，甚至可能延续到春季。
格林斯通表示，气候影响实验室的报告“能让决策者清楚看到在未来几个月里，可以在哪些地方采取应急行动，拯救数万人的生命”。它还可以帮助人道主义组织决定如何分配应急资金和其他资源。报告强调，“高温预警、向脆弱人群提供健康服务、设置降温中心和补水站、保护劳动者以及扩大医疗系统容量，都能帮助人们应对极端高温”。
El Niño could cause 451,000 more heat-related deaths compared to normal year, group says. Map shows areas at risk.
September 23, 2026 10:58 AM EDT / CBS News
By Emily Mae Czachor News Editor
Emily Mae Czachor is a reporter and news editor at CBSNews.com. She typically covers breaking news, extreme weather and climate. Emily Mae previously wrote for outlets like the Los Angeles Times, BuzzFeed and Newsweek.
Read Full Bio
An estimated 451,000 more people could die as a result of excessive heat in the first nine months of the current El Niño compared with a typical year, according to a report from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab.
“That’s on top of the impacts from droughts, wildfires and flooding expected from hotter temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns as this El Niño could become the strongest on record,” the research hub said in a news release Wednesday.
Map shows which regions face highest risks
Countries across the Global South are forecast to see the greatest impacts, with Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad expected to record more than 65,000 heat-related deaths combined. The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia are expected to record close to 40,000 deaths collectively, while Brazil and India could also see high death tolls, according to researchers.
This color-coded map shows the global spread of additional heat-related deaths forecast in September 2026, compared with a typical year, according to a new report from University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab. Darker shades represent higher concentrations of deaths than lighter ones. Climate Impact Lab
The projected global toll “is such a large number that it can be numbing, but it is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbors, people going to work, caring for families, and living their lives,” Michael Greenstone, a cofounder of the Climate Impact Lab, said in a statement.
El Niño is a climate pattern characterized, in part, by above-average ocean temperatures in a portion of the Pacific Ocean near the equator. It influences extreme weather events across the globe, in different ways and to varying degrees depending on the region. In some places, the onset of El Niño correlates with intense heat, drought and flooding, which can be even harsher when El Niño is particularly powerful, like it is this year.
Meteorologists have warned of the current El Niño’s potentially historic consequences since it developed at the start of the summer. The World Meteorological Organization forecast earlier this month that this El Niño could become the strongest on record, with its most severe impacts still ahead.
A firefighter sprays water in an attempt to extinguish a wildfire burning through a peatland forest in Pulang Pisau, Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, Sept. 5, 2026. AP Photo/Regina Safri, File
The U.N. agency predicted the “supersized” phenomenon won’t reach its peak intensity until closer to the end of 2026. The U.S.-based Climate Prediction Center expects El Niño will likely remain in place through the Northern Hemisphere’s winter season, and possibly last into spring.
Greenstone said the Climate Impact Lab’s report “allows decisionmakers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months.” It can also help humanitarian organizations decide how to allocate emergency funds and other resources. It emphasized that “heat warnings, health outreach to vulnerable populations, cooling centers and hydration stations, worker protections, and expanded health system capacity can all help people cope with extreme heat.”
发表回复