2026年9月17日 / 美国东部时间下午2:12 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
作者
美国联邦储备委员会周三做出了投资者预期中的举动——三年来首次加息。随后美联储主席凯文·沃什却释放了出人意料的信号：态度极为鹰派，暗示可能会进一步加息，以遏制居高不下的通胀。
美联储周三实施了市场普遍预期的25个基点加息，此次小幅加息将使信用卡及其他贷款的成本小幅上升。但股市却应声下跌，道琼斯工业平均指数暴跌631点，跌幅达1.2%。
令投资者不安的是美联储的经济预测与沃什的讲话之间存在分歧。政策制定者预计2026年还会再加息一次，2027年不会加息，但沃什暗示，如果最终控制通胀所需，他愿意进一步加息。
“在此次新闻发布会上，沃什展现了他骨子里真正的鹰派立场，并有意愿朝着这个方向领导美联储，”SGH宏观顾问公司首席美国经济学家蒂姆·杜伊在给客户的研究报告中表示。
以下是此次美联储会议的三大核心要点。
沃什决心遏制通胀
沃什是今年早些时候由特朗普总统提名，接替长期担任美联储主席的杰罗姆·鲍威尔的。他此前曾誓言要应对通胀，但经济学家们此前一直不确定他是否会坚定践行这一目标，因为他也曾附和过特朗普的部分观点，即降息对经济有利。
发生了什么变化？从沃什1月份获得提名到本周的美联储会议，通胀率大幅攀升，主要推动力是伊朗战争对全球油价的影响。
1月份，消费者价格同比涨幅为2.4%，距离美联储2%的目标仅一步之遥。但飙升的原油价格扭转了这一态势，5月份消费者价格指数升至4.2%，达到三年来新高。尽管此后通胀略有缓和，8月份回落至3.4%，但仍远高于美联储官员的预期水平。
“显而易见，通胀率过高，且已经持续太久，”沃什在周三美联储宣布加息后的新闻发布会上表示，他强调美联储希望采取“更及时”的措施来抑制物价上涨。
全球数据公司经济研究分析师杰森·戴维斯在一份报告中表示，这些言论被解读为“利率将在更高水平维持更久”。“降息的门槛现在高得多了，必须有明确证据表明通胀正朝着目标回落，才能考虑降息。”
伊朗战争让美联储处境更复杂
沃什指出，伊朗战争的影响是美联储官员一致认为需要加息的原因之一。这场看不到尽头的冲突严重减少了波斯湾的石油出口，而沙特阿拉伯与伊朗支持的胡塞武装在也门的冲突升级，又威胁到另一条关键航道。
近几周来，原油价格已跃升至每桶100美元以上。油价上涨推高了美国民众的燃油成本：根据美国汽车协会的数据，周四美国柴油价格创下每加仑6.40美元的历史新高，同比上涨73%；汽油价格达到每加仑4.44美元，同比上涨38%。
“我们无法避开世界各地的热点地区，我们对地缘政治局势最可能或最不可能出现的情况的判断已经改变，”沃什在新闻发布会上说道。
尽管沃什指出美联储无法控制油价，但他补充说，央行必须确保高能源成本的影响不会波及经济其他领域。
“我们无法影响任何单一价格，无论是油价，还是杂货店的食品价格。但我们能够也将会确保，相对价格的任何变化不会扩散到整体通胀中。”他说。
美联储准备违背白宫意愿
沃什抑制通胀的决心提升了他在投资者中的公信力——这是美联储官员管理市场对经济预期时至关重要的声誉资源。
“昨日的美联储会议后，不仅因为加息，还因为鹰派基调，新任美联储主席已经建立了自己的公信力，”FHN金融公司首席经济学家克里斯·洛在一份研究报告中表示。
美联储会议结束后，特朗普于周三下午在社交媒体上发文称，他认为利率应该“维持在1%或更低，因为我们是全球信用最好的国家——远远领先其他国家”。他补充道：“为美利坚合众国降低利率，而且要快！”
经济学家们认为，沃什有关通胀的言论暗示，美联储愿意不惜一切代价降低通胀，即便这意味着违背白宫的意愿。
“加息是正确的举措，这恢复了美联储的公信力，即无论白宫或其他任何人怎么说，央行都会抑制通胀，”海军联邦信用合作社首席经济学家希瑟·朗在电子邮件中表示。
编辑：阿兰·谢特
What the Fed’s interest rate hike reveals about Warsh, Trump and inflation
September 17, 2026 / 2:12 PM EDT / CBS News
By
The Federal Reserve did what investors expected on Wednesday by raising interest rates for the first time in three years. Then Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered a surprise — a decidedly hawkish message that opened the door to additional rate hikes as the central bank looks to snuff out stubbornly high inflation.
The Fed on Wednesday delivered a widely anticipated quarter-point interest rate hike, a modest increase that will make credit cards and other loans incrementally more expensive. Yet stocks tumbled, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding 631 points, or 1.2%.
What unsettled investors was the gap between the Fed’s economic forecasts and Warsh’s remarks. Policymakers projected one additional hike in 2026 and none in 2027, but Warsh signaled a willingness to further raise rates if that’s what is required to finally bring inflation under control.
“In this press conference, Warsh revealed his true inner hawk and a willingness to lead in that direction,” Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, told clients in a research note.
Here are three key takeaways from the Fed meeting.
Warsh is determined to tame inflation
Warsh, who was named by President Trump to succeed longtime Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier this year, has previously vowed to tackle inflation. But economists had been unsure of his commitment to that goal, given that he had also echoed some of Mr. Trump’s views that the economy could benefit from lower interest rates.
What changed? Between the time Warsh was nominated in January and this week’s Fed meeting, inflation has sharply accelerated, driven largely by the Iran war’s impact on global oil prices.
In January, consumer prices were rising at an annual rate of 2.4%, within touching distance of the Fed’s 2% target. But soaring crude prices have reversed that progress, sending the Consumer Price Index to a three-year high of 4.2% in May. While inflation has eased slightly since then, dipping to 3.4% in August, it’s still far higher than Fed officials like.
“The plain fact is that inflation is too high, and has been for too long,” Warsh said in a press conference after the Fed announced the rate hike on Wednesday, stressing that the Fed wants to take a “timelier” approach to curb price increases.
Those comments were interpreted as pointing to “higher rates for longer,” Jaison Davis, economic research analyst at GlobalData, said in a report. “The bar for easing [rates] is now much higher, and it rests on clear evidence that inflation is heading back to target.”
The Iran war is complicating life for the Fed
Warsh pointed to the impact of the war in Iran as one reason Fed officials were unanimous on the need to hike interest rates. The conflict, which has no end in sight, has severely reduced the flow of oil out of the Persian Gulf, while an escalation in fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen threatens another vital waterway.
Crude oil prices have jumped above $100 a barrel in recent weeks. The price increase has pushed fuel costs higher for Americans, who paid a record-high $6.40 per gallon for diesel on Thursday, a 73% jump from a year ago. Gasoline reached $4.44 a gallon, 38% higher than a year earlier, according to AAA data.
“There’s no hiding from hot spots around the world, and our judgment about what is the most likely or least likely of the geopolitical situation has changed,” Warsh said during the news conference.
While Warsh noted that the Fed can’t control oil prices, he added that the central bank must ensure that the impact of higher energy costs doesn’t ripple through the rest of the economy.
“We cannot affect any individual price, whether it be oil prices, whether it be foodstuffs at the grocery store. But what we can do and will do is ensure that any changes in relative prices don’t broaden out,” he said.
The Fed is willing to buck the White House
Warsh’s commitment to subduing inflation is upping his credibility among investors — a vital reputational resource in how Fed officials manage expectations about the economy.
“After yesterday’s Fed meeting, not just because of the hike but also thanks to the hawkish tone, the new Fed Chair has established his credibility,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial, in a research note.
After the Fed meeting ended, Mr. Trump on Wednesday afternoon posted on social media that he believes interest rates should be “1% or less, because we are the Best Credit in the World — BY FAR.” He added, “LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST!”
Economists interpreted Warsh’s comments about inflation as signaling the Fed is willing to do whatever it takes to reduce inflation, even if that means going against the White House.
“Hiking was the right move, and it restores Fed credibility that the central bank will curb inflation no matter what the White House or anyone else says,” Heather Long, chief economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union, said in an email.
Edited by Alain Sherter
发表回复