2026年9月15日 / 美国东部时间下午2:15 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
经济学家表示，美国人的借贷成本很快就可能变得更高。
美国联邦储备委员会预计将于周三上调基准利率，这将是三年多来的首次加息，因为美联储正与高油价推动的顽固通胀作斗争。一些华尔街预测机构还预计，未来几个月还会有一次或两次额外加息。
尽管特朗普总统多次呼吁降低利率，但许多经济学家预测，美联储官员将在9月16日的会议上将联邦基金利率上调0.25个百分点。通胀仍远高于美联储2%的年度目标，8月份消费者价格指数同比上涨3.4%。
加息是美联储抑制通胀最有力的工具，因为企业和消费者会因此削减开支，给经济降温，并随着需求放缓而缓解物价上涨。
由于美国在结束伊朗战争方面几乎没有进展，一些经济学家预测，高油价可能会持续数月，这可能促使美联储进一步收紧货币政策，以遏制通胀。
“如果一切保持不变，能源价格维持高位，经济保持相当强劲，那么有充分理由预计本周之后可能还会再加息一两次，”财富管理公司约翰逊投资顾问公司首席经济学家布兰登·祖里克在接受哥伦比亚广播公司新闻采访时表示。“我们不指望重演2022年的情况，当时美联储真的在对抗高得多的通胀。”
2022年6月，通胀率达到9.1%的40年峰值，促使美联储连续11次加息，将基准利率从接近零上调至2023年7月的5.25%至5.5%区间。那是美联储上次上调借贷成本，此后美联储要么降息，要么维持利率不变。
美联储会议何时举行？
美联储将于美国东部时间9月16日下午2点宣布决议。随后在下午2点30分，美联储主席凯文·沃什将举行新闻发布会。
美联储的利率制定机构联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）还将于周三发布季度经济展望摘要。该报告包含FOMC官员对通胀、GDP增长和其他经济指标的预测。
美联储可能会如何调整利率？
根据30天联邦基金期货价格预测加息可能性的CME美联储观察工具显示，周三加息0.25个百分点的概率约为90%。这将使联邦基金利率——即银行间短期贷款的利率——的目标区间升至3.75%至4%。
更大的问题是，正如一些经济学家预计的那样，鉴于伊朗战争带来的通胀压力，本周加息是否会成为一系列加息的开端，以帮助美联储抑制通胀。根据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据，柴油价格周二创下每加仑6.27美元的历史新高，汽油价格在过去一周上涨了18美分，周二达到每加仑4.33美元。
“辩论已经从‘是否需要收紧’转向‘本轮周期需要多大程度的收紧才能恢复价格稳定’，”普林斯顿资产管理公司首席全球策略师西玛·沙阿在一封电子邮件中表示。“经历了五年高于目标的通胀、持续的贸易 disruption、每桶100美元以上的油价，以及人工智能资本支出扩张带来的通胀压力上升，一次性加息的做法不太可能奏效。”
祖里克表示，伊朗战争仍有可能迅速结束，这将缓解能源价格，避免额外加息。他补充说，由于这种不确定性，预测通胀路径以及美联储的应对措施十分困难。
加息对借款人意味着什么？
银行可能会上调信用卡和其他贷款产品的利率，不过单次0.25个百分点的加息可能不会显著推高借贷成本。
“信用卡持有者应该预计，在美联储加息后的几个月内，信用卡的年利率将上涨四分之一点，”LendingTree公司首席消费者金融分析师马特·舒尔茨告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻。“不幸的是，更高的利率将适用于当前欠款和未来的消费。”
他表示，本周加息只会让背负信用卡债务的人每月账单增加“一两美元”。但“如果你已经在为信用卡债务苦苦挣扎，任何加息都是不受欢迎的，”舒尔茨说。
相比之下，加息可能会抑制消费者为抵押贷款等支付的长期利率。这是因为抵押贷款利率往往追踪10年期美国国债收益率，最近几周，由于投资者质疑美联储降低通胀的决心，国债收益率大幅飙升。当通胀高企时，投资者通常会要求更高的收益率，以换取持有长期债券。
加息对储户意味着什么？
尽管加息会推高借贷成本，但也意味着储户能获得更丰厚的回报。
“这意味着高收益储蓄账户和定期存款的回报会更好，”舒尔茨告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻。“回报没有达到几年前的历史最高水平，但按历史标准来看仍然强劲，而加息意味着未来回报还会进一步提升。”
加息对投资者意味着什么？
美联储的利率变动可能会引发金融市场波动。例如，2022年美联储在经济从疫情中复苏之际开始大幅加息时，标准普尔500指数下跌了18%。
不过祖里克表示，当时投资者对美联储的激进应对措手不及，而如今市场已经为一系列加息定价。
“除非出现远超市场预期的情况，而我们认为目前这种情况相当不可能发生，”他说。
祖里克建议投资者专注于多元化投资，以确保投资组合能够应对各种挑战。
“构建一个能够抵御不同环境的多元化投资组合，包括国际股票、中小盘股票，”他说。“随着利率上升，债券投资组合也变得越来越有吸引力。”
他还补充说，不要试图择时入市。“坚持一贯的策略总是好建议，”他说。“不必对短期新闻做出反应。”
Alain Sherter 编辑
美联社为本报道提供了支持。
Fed expected to hike interest rates for first time since 2023. See what it means for your money.
September 15, 2026 / 2:15 PM EDT / CBS News
Borrowing is likely to get more expensive for Americans, and soon, according to economists.
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday for the first time in more than three years as the central bank battles stubborn inflation fueled by high energy prices. Some Wall Street forecasters also pencil in one or two additional rate hikes over the next several months.
Despite President Trump’s repeated calls for lower interest rates, many economists predict that Fed officials will raise the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points at its Sept. 16 meeting. Inflation remains well above the central bank’s 2% annual target, with the Consumer Price Index rising at an annual pace of 3.4% in August.
Interest rate hikes are the Fed’s most potent tool for quashing inflation because businesses and consumers respond by pulling back on spending, cooling the economy and tempering price increases as demand slows.
With little U.S. progress toward ending the Iran war, some economists predict that high energy prices may stick around for months, which could push the Fed to further tighten monetary policy as it seeks to curb inflation.
“If everything stays the same and energy prices remain elevated and the economy remains pretty strong, there’s good reason to expect maybe another hike or two beyond this week,” Brandon Zureick, chief economist at wealth management firm Johnson Investment Counsel, told CBS News. “We’re not expecting a repeat of 2022, when the Fed was really fighting inflation that was much, much higher.”
Inflation reached a 40-year peak of 9.1% in June 2022, spurring the Fed into a series of 11 rate hikes that raised its benchmark rate from near zero to a range of 5.25% to 5.5% by July 2023. That was the last time the central bank raised borrowing costs, and since then the Fed has either cut or held rates steady.
When is the Fed meeting?
The Federal Reserve will announce its decision at 2 p.m. ET on Sept. 16. The announcement will be followed by a press conference with Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh at 2:30 p.m.
The Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank’s rate-setting panel, will also release its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections on Wednesday. The release includes FOMC officials’ forecasts for inflation, GDP growth and other economic measures.
What is the Fed likely to do on interest rates?
CME FedWatch, which forecasts the likelihood of rate hikes based on 30-day Fed funds futures prices, puts the probability of a 0.25 percentage-point rate hike on Wednesday at roughly 90%. That would increase the federal funds rate — what banks charge each other for short-term loans — to a target range of 3.75% to 4%.
The bigger question is whether a rate increase this week could be the first of a series of hikes as the Fed tries to rein in inflation, as some economists expect, given inflationary pressures from the Iran war. Diesel prices hit a record high of $6.27 a gallon on Tuesday, while gasoline has jumped 18 cents a gallon over the last week, and reached $4.33 on Tuesday, according to AAA.
“The debate has shifted from ‘if’ to ‘how much’ tightening this cycle will require to restore price stability,” Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said in an email. “After five years of above-target inflation, ongoing trade disruptions, $100+ per barrel oil prices and rising inflationary pressures from the AI capex buildout, a one-and-done hiking approach is unlikely.”
It’s still possible the Iran war could conclude quickly, which would ease energy prices and bypass additional rate hikes, Zureick said. Because of that uncertainty, predicting the path of inflation — and the Fed’s response — is difficult, he added.
What would a rate hike mean for borrowers?
Banks are likely to raise their interest rates on credit cards and other lending products, although a single 0.25 percentage-point increase might not significantly raise borrowing costs.
“Cardholders should expect their credit card’s APR to rise a quarter-point in the next couple of months following the Fed’s move,” Matt Schulz, the chief consumer finance analyst at LendingTree, told CBS News. “Unfortunately, the higher rate will apply to current balances as well as future purchases.”
A rate increase this week would add only “a dollar or two” to the monthly bills of people carrying credit card balances, he said. But “if you’re already struggling with card debt, any increase is unwelcome,” Schulz said.
By contrast, a rate hike might hold down longer-term interest rates that consumers pay for things like mortgages. That’s because mortgage rates tend to track the 10-year Treasury bill, whose yields have surged in recent weeks as investors question the Fed’s commitment to lowering inflation. When inflation is elevated, investors typically demand higher yields in exchange for owning longer-duration bonds.
What would a Fed rate hike mean for savers?
Although rising interest rates boost borrowing costs, they also mean juicier returns for savers.
“It means better returns on high-yield savings accounts and CDs,” Schulz told CBS News. “Returns aren’t at the record levels we saw a couple of years ago, but they’re still strong by historical standards, and a rate hike means they’re only going to get better in the near future.”
What would a rate hike mean for investors?
Fed rate movements can cause volatility in financial markets. For example, when the Fed began ratcheting up interest rates in 2022 as the economy was rebounding from the pandemic, the S&P 500 fell 18%.
At the time, however, investors were caught off guard by the Fed’s aggressive response, while the market today has already priced in a series of hikes, Zureick said.
“It would have to be something orders of magnitude more than what the market’s expecting, which at this point we think is fairly unlikely,” he said.
Zureick advises investors to focus on diversification to ensure their portfolios can weather various challenges.
“Have a well-diversified portfolio that can withstand different environments, including international stocks, small and mid-cap stocks,” he said. “As interest rates have risen, that’s made bond portfolios more and more attractive as well.”
And don’t try to time the market, he added. “Steady is always good advice,” he said. “Don’t necessarily react to short-term news.”
Edited by Alain Sherter
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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