2026-09-15T09:54:15-04:00 / 福克斯新闻频道
伊朗8月原油装载量降至约25.5万桶/日，较3月的约200万桶大幅下滑
摩根·菲利普斯 福克斯新闻报道
2026年9月15日 美国东部时间上午9:54发布
伊朗能承受多大压力？专家解读德黑兰的应对选项
美国防务智囊团基金会分析师米亚德·马莱基详解伊朗经济为何承受日益沉重的压力、哪些因素可能迫使该政权重返谈判桌，以及为何汽油短缺可能成为决定性因素。
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美国正通过霍尔木兹海峡切断伊朗的石油出口。但原本旨在让其他海湾产油国免受这场 disruption 影响的撤离通道，如今自身也面临压力。
上周的无人机袭击严重损毁了沙特阿拉伯的东西向输油管道，这是一条关键的绕行通道，可将原油输送至该国西部的红海沿岸。近期该管道日均输油量约为260万至400万桶，而修复工作可能使其在三至五周内基本无法运作。
与此同时，受伊朗支持的胡塞武装占领了曼德海峡周边更多领土和战略岛屿。曼德海峡连接红海、亚丁湾和印度洋，这给这条多年来屡遭袭击的主要航运航线增添了新的压力。
而这些持续不断的 disruption 已经波及到了美国消费者。
【美国消费者面临新风险：伊朗支持的袭击威胁第二大石油咽喉要道】
2026年8月10日，胡塞武装袭击也门红海港口城市摩卡后造成的破坏画面，取自路透社提供的视频截图。（Al Joumhouriya电视台/路透社提供）
据美国汽车协会（AAA）数据，美国柴油价格周一创下全国平均每加仑6.23美元的历史新高，普通汽油均价则达到每加仑4.32美元。布伦特原油当日盘中最高攀升至约每桶110美元。
华盛顿大幅削减了伊朗的石油出口和贸易，但更广泛的冲突仍在扰乱该地区其他地区的能源供应，尤其是受伊朗支持的胡塞武装在也门海岸线加强部署后。
【被忽视的影响：伊朗相关冲突如何推高食品、亚马逊包裹和新建住宅成本】
如今的问题是，伊朗是否会因压力足够大而做出特朗普政府所要求的让步，以及德黑兰及其盟友在坚持抵抗的同时，还能造成多大程度的经济破坏。
德黑兰面临的经济压力与日俱增。
伊朗已经数周没有通过霍尔木兹海峡输送有意义的新原油出口。根据能源数据机构Kpler、Vortexa和TankerTrackers.com的信息，自美国7月14日恢复海军封锁以来，没有任何伊朗原油货物成功通过该海峡运往德黑兰最大的剩余石油客户中国。
2026年9月11日发布的视频截图中，人们在胡塞武装占领塔伊兹省摩卡市后的哈立德·本·瓦利德营地做出手势。（Al-Masirah电视台/路透社提供）
伊朗8月原油和凝析油装载量降至约22万至25.5万桶/日，低于7月的约74万桶和3月的约200万桶。
通过霍尔木兹海峡的商业航运也仍受到严重干扰。追踪全球大宗商品流动和海上航运实时数据的Kpler近期数据显示，可见的商品船舶过境次数多次仅为个位数，尽管美国一直在努力恢复该航道的部分通行。
美国防务智囊团基金会高级研究员米亚德·马莱基表示，压力正越来越多地从伊朗石油行业蔓延至整体经济。
【霍尔木兹危机背后隐藏着可能比战争更持久的更深层次石油威胁】
马莱基告诉福克斯新闻数字频道：“有一系列迹象表明”制裁正在奏效，他援引了制裁、海军封锁以及日益加剧的外交孤立的综合影响。
马莱基称，伊朗严重依赖通过阿联酋和土耳其进行的贸易，而对这些渠道的限制使其更难获得外汇和必要的进口商品。
汽油可能成为一个尤其棘手的施压点。
伊朗仍是世界主要原油生产国之一，但炼油产能不足以满足国内需求，导致其依赖进口，而如今进口变得愈发难以保障。
马莱基表示，该政权可以通过继续印钞和发放工资来缓解部分经济冲击，让通胀吸收部分压力，而非立即削减政府薪资。
但实物短缺则更难解决。
但这并不一定意味着德黑兰故意将曼德海峡作为替代霍尔木兹海峡的新杠杆来源。
伊朗问题专家阿拉什·阿齐兹告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，德黑兰已经被迫承认，其主导霍尔木兹海峡的能力比曾经宣称的要弱。
“伊朗已经意识到，它通过威胁霍尔木兹海峡所拥有的部分影响力已经消失，”他说。
“[伊朗]无法有效封锁该海峡，正拼命寻找方法来改善局面，”他补充道。
不过阿齐兹警告，不要将胡塞武装的每一次行动都视为伊朗协调战略的一部分，即从波斯湾向红海转移压力。
“伊朗的控制能力有限，胡塞武装与沙特的冲突有其自身的动态，”他说。
【僵局持续，特朗普的制裁未能触及伊朗在中东失去的关键经济生命线】
阿齐兹表示，伊朗鼓励并在物质上支持胡塞武装，但并未对该组织行使完全的行动控制权。
随着胡塞武装在曼德海峡周边加强阵地，这一区别至关重要。
他们占领了梅云岛、摩卡港，以及最近的大哈尼什岛和小哈尼什岛，扩大了其在全球最重要航运通道之一周边的势力范围。但该组织仍允许许多船只通行，并未试图完全封锁该海峡。
胡塞武装袭击沙特石油管道后，汽油价格上涨。（亚伦·施瓦茨/路透社）
阿齐兹将当地的不稳定局势描述为对德黑兰的“双刃剑”。
对航运和沙特能源基础设施的压力可以提高伊朗对手的成本，并加剧全球石油市场的焦虑。但更广泛的地区冲突也可能使德黑兰更难实现其所述的首要目标：结束战争、保存伊斯兰共和国并启动重建。
因此，他说，对德黑兰而言，当下的目标与其说是开辟新战场，不如说是改善其结束当前冲突的条件。
阿齐兹表示，伊朗想要“达成某种结束战争的协议，保存伊斯兰共和国，并使其能够启动战后重建”。
这将核心问题重新抛回给华盛顿。
特朗普政府已经证明，它可以对伊朗施加严重的经济压力。目前仍不清楚的是，进一步的压力是否会带来华盛顿想要的让步，以及伊朗及其盟友仍能施加的代价，是会改善德黑兰的谈判地位，还是会加剧其孤立。
阿齐兹认为，德黑兰可能已经准备好做出让步。
“我认为伊朗准备做出让步，”他说。“问题是，美国会接受哪些让步？”
他表示，伊朗的谈判立场已经比冲突初期软化，当时德黑兰宣称对霍尔木兹海峡的通行拥有全面控制权。
他认为，该政权目前的主要红线是自身的生存。
视频
一些伊朗官员可能仍认为，继续对能源市场和美国经济施加压力可以改善德黑兰的谈判地位，尤其是在中期选举前夕。但经济痛苦的失衡状态依然明显。
“我们没有受到伤害。我们的日常生活并没有因为这场战争受到疯狂的影响，”他在谈到美国人时说。“伊朗受到的伤害比美国大得多。”
“伊朗没有石油可卖，”阿齐兹补充道。
阿齐兹表示，与政府最新的制裁方案相比，封锁通过限制贸易，同时让企业几乎无法确定正常商业活动何时恢复，从根本上恶化了伊朗的前景。
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马莱基同样表示，该政权可以在一段时间内承受通胀和经济损失，而不会立即崩溃。更严峻的考验将出现在金融压力转化为实物短缺之时。
这使得美国下一阶段的行动与其说是证明伊朗正在受苦，不如说是确定华盛顿能否在德黑兰或其地区盟友找到新方法提高抵抗成本之前，将这种痛苦转化为可接受的协议。
“他们可以继续印制里亚尔，”马莱基说。“但他们印不出汽油。”
Oil squeeze tightens as Iran-backed attacks cripple Hormuz escape routes
2026-09-15T09:54:15-04:00 / Fox News
Iranian crude loadings fell to roughly 255,000 barrels per day in August, down from about 2 million in March
By Morgan Phillips Fox News
Published September 15, 2026 9:54am EDT
How much pressure can Iran withstand? Expert breaks down Tehran’s options
FDD analyst Miad Maleki explains why Iran’s economy is under mounting strain, what could force the regime back to the negotiating table and why gasoline shortages may prove decisive.
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The U.S. is choking off Iran’s oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. But the routes meant to shield other Gulf producers from that disruption are now coming under pressure themselves.
A drone attack last week badly damaged Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, a critical bypass that carries crude oil across the kingdom to the Red Sea. Repairs could leave it largely out of service for three to five weeks after it had been moving roughly 2.6 million to 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks.
At the same time, Iran-backed Houthi rebels have seized additional territory and strategic islands around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean — adding pressure to another major shipping route already battered by years of attacks.
And those repeated disruptions are already reaching American consumers.
NEW RISK FOR US CONSUMERS AS IRAN-BACKED ATTACKS THREATEN A SECOND MAJOR OIL CHOKEPOINT
Damage in the aftermath of Houthi strikes on the Red Sea port city of Mocha, Yemen, Aug. 10, 2026, in this screengrab taken from a handout video.(Al Joumhouriya TV/Handout via Reuters)
U.S. diesel prices hit a record national average of $6.23 a gallon Monday, according to AAA, while regular gasoline averaged $4.32. Brent crude climbed as high as roughly $110 a barrel during the day.
Washington has sharply curtailed Iran’s oil exports and trade, but the wider conflict is still disrupting energy supplies elsewhere in the region, especially as Iran-backed Houthi rebels strengthen their stance along the coastline in Yemen.
THE OVERLOOKED WAY THE IRAN WAR IS MAKING GROCERIES, AMAZON PACKAGES AND NEW HOMES MORE EXPENSIVE
The question now is whether Iran is hurting enough to make the concessions Trump wants — and how much economic damage Tehran and its allies can still inflict while it holds out.
The economic pressure on Tehran is mounting.
Iran has gone weeks without sending meaningful new crude exports through Hormuz. Since the United States reinstated its naval blockade July 14, no Iranian crude cargoes have successfully crossed the strait to China, Tehran’s largest remaining oil customer, according to Kpler, Vortexa and TankerTrackers.com.
Men gesture in a screen grab from a video released September 11, 2026 and said to show Khaled bin Walid camp after Houthis captured the city of Mocha in Taiz Province,(Al-Masirah TV/Handout via Reuters)
Iranian crude and condensate loadings fell to roughly 220,000 to 255,000 barrels per day in August, down from about 740,000 in July and roughly 2 million in March.
Commercial shipping through Hormuz also remains deeply disrupted. Recent readings from Kpler, which tracks real-time data on global commodity flows and maritime shipping, have repeatedly put visible commodity-vessel transits in the single digits, even as the U.S. has worked to restore some movement through the waterway.
Miad Maleki, a senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the pressure is increasingly reaching beyond Iran’s oil industry and into the broader economy.
HORMUZ CRISIS HIDES A DEEPER OIL THREAT THAT COULD OUTLAST THE WAR
“There are a series of indications” that the pressure is working, Maleki told Fox News Digital, citing the combined effect of sanctions, the naval blockade and growing diplomatic isolation.
Iran depends heavily on trade through the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, Maleki said, and restrictions on those channels are making it harder to obtain foreign currency and essential imports.
Gasoline could become an especially difficult pressure point.
Iran remains one of the world’s major crude producers but lacks sufficient refining capacity to meet its own demand, leaving it dependent on imports that have become more difficult to secure.
The regime can cushion some of the financial blow by continuing to print currency and pay salaries, Maleki said, allowing inflation to absorb part of the pressure rather than immediately cutting government payrolls.
Physical shortages are harder to solve.
But that does not necessarily mean Tehran has deliberately substituted the Bab el-Mandeb for Hormuz as a new source of leverage.
Iran expert Arash Azizi said Tehran has already been forced to recognize that its ability to dominate the Strait of Hormuz is weaker than it once claimed.
“Iran has realized that some of the leverage it has over the threat of Hormuz is gone,” Azizi told Fox News Digital.
“[Iran] is not able to close it effectively and is desperately trying to find a way to better its odds,” he said.
Azizi cautioned, however, against treating every Houthi move as part of a coordinated Iranian strategy to transfer pressure from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea.
“Iran has limited control, and the Houthi-Saudi conflict has a dynamics of its own,” he said.
IRAN LOSES KEY ECONOMIC LIFELINE IN MIDDLE EAST THAT TRUMP’S SANCTIONS COULDN’T REACH AS DEADLOCK PERSISTS
Iran encourages and materially supports the Houthis, Azizi said, but does not exercise full operational control over the group.
That distinction matters as the Houthis strengthen their position around Bab el-Mandeb.
Their capture of Mayun Island, the port of Mokha and, most recently, the Greater and Lesser Hanish islands has expanded their reach around one of the world’s most important shipping corridors. Yet the group has continued to allow many vessels to pass rather than attempting a total closure of the strait.
Gas prices have ticked up after Houthi-led attacks on a Saudi oil pipeline.(Aaron Schwartz/Reuters)
Azizi described the instability there as a “double-edged sword” for Tehran.
Pressure on shipping and Saudi energy infrastructure can raise costs for Iran’s adversaries and increase anxiety in global oil markets. But a broader regional conflict can also make it harder for Tehran to achieve what Azizi described as its overriding objective: ending the war, preserving the Islamic Republic and beginning reconstruction.
For Tehran, he said, the immediate goal is therefore less about opening a new front than improving the terms on which it can end the current one.
Iran wants “some sort of a deal that puts an end to the war,” preserves the Islamic Republic and allows it to begin postwar reconstruction, Azizi said.
That shifts the central question back to Washington.
The Trump administration has demonstrated that it can inflict severe economic pressure on Iran. What remains unclear is whether additional pressure produces the concessions Washington wants — and whether the costs Iran and its regional allies can still impose improve Tehran’s bargaining position or deepen its isolation.
Azizi believes Tehran may already be prepared to move.
“I think Iran is ready to make concessions,” he said. “The question is, what concessions the United States would find acceptable?”
He said Iran’s negotiating position has already softened from earlier in the conflict, when Tehran claimed sweeping authority over traffic through Hormuz.
The regime’s principal red line now, he argued, is its own survival.
Video
Some Iranian officials may still believe continued pressure on energy markets and the U.S. economy could improve Tehran’s hand, particularly ahead of the midterm elections, Azizi said. But the imbalance in economic pain remains stark.
“We are not hurting. Our daily life is not affected in a crazy manner by this war,” he said of Americans. “Iran is hurting a lot more than the United States.”
“Iran is selling no oil,” Azizi added.
Azizi said the blockade, more than the administration’s latest sanctions package alone, has fundamentally worsened Iran’s outlook by restricting trade while leaving businesses with little idea when normal commercial activity might resume.
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Maleki similarly said the regime can absorb inflation and financial losses for some time without immediately buckling. The more difficult test comes when financial pressure becomes physical scarcity.
That makes the next phase of the U.S. campaign less about proving that Iran is hurting than determining whether Washington can turn that pain into an acceptable deal before Tehran or its regional allies find new ways to raise the cost of holding out.
“They can keep printing rial,” Maleki said. “But they can’t print gasoline.”
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