2026年9月12日 美国东部时间上午11:26 / 哥伦比亚广播公司/美联社
得益于一场在风暴成型前就将其扼杀的超强厄尔尼诺现象，今年飓风季的大西洋海域异常平静——平静到创下纪录。
美国国家飓风中心表示，今年迄今大西洋尚未形成任何飓风，且至少未来一周内也不太可能出现飓风，尽管此时本应是飓风季的高峰期。飓风季的官方时段为6月初至11月底，通常的活跃高峰期在8月至10月之间。本季仅形成了5场强度较弱、持续时间短的热带风暴。
美国政府天气预测中心的气象学家尼克·诺维拉表示，截至周六，2026年创下了卫星监测时代以来飓风季开局至首次出现达到64英里/小时风速的飓风的最长间隔纪录。1950年代之前，有几年在该时段未记录到飓风，但由于当时海洋监测手段不完善，气象学家对这些历史记录可信度存疑。
科罗拉多州立大学飓风专家菲尔·克洛茨巴赫指出，综合考量风暴数量、强度和持续时间的整体飓风活动指数也达到了1950年以来的历史低点。大西洋的风暴活动仅为今年同期正常水平的7%。科罗拉多州立大学的专家团队在2026年年度飓风报告中曾预测，大西洋海域将形成9场命名风暴。
专家们提醒，民众不应放松警惕，因为即便在厄尔尼诺年，只要一场风暴就可能造成灾难性后果。多位专家援引1992年的例子：该年飓风季开局迟缓，但随后来袭的飓风安德鲁造成了毁灭性破坏。强度较低的风暴同样可能带来危险。
“目前大西洋对任何热带气旋的形成都极度不友好，这实在令人震惊，”奥尔巴尼大学大气科学教授克里斯汀·科博西埃罗说道，“任何试图形成的风暴都会遭遇三重打击”：足以撕裂风暴结构的大风、耗尽风暴能量的干燥空气，以及基本将其扼杀的下沉气流。
五位专家在接受美联社采访时表示，这三种作用力都是厄尔尼诺现象的典型影响。厄尔尼诺是赤道太平洋部分海域的自然暂时性升温现象，会在全球范围内扰乱并改变天气格局。上一次出现厄尔尼诺现象是在2023年，该现象每2至7年发生一次。
“它正对大西洋造成沉重打击，影响之显著令人印象深刻，”克洛茨巴赫说道，“我们甚至连接近飓风强度的风暴都没出现过。”
强劲厄尔尼诺风力阻断风暴形成
厄尔尼诺对大西洋的最大影响是出现了创纪录的强风切变——即低层强劲东风与高空强劲西风分别从不同方向冲击风暴系统，科博西埃罗解释称，最终结果是风暴会被“撕裂”。
科博西埃罗表示，在通常会形成最强风暴并向西移动的非洲与加勒比海之间海域，风切变强度比热带气旋所能承受的极限高出约45英里/小时。她称这一水平前所未闻。
“风暴还没来得及成型就被斩去了‘头颅’，”迈阿密大学飓风专家布莱恩·麦克诺迪说道。
科博西埃罗等人警告称，墨西哥湾海域的风切变强度并不高，该区域的风暴往往会在季末集中形成，因此该地区仍有可能出现强风暴。
专家们表示，除了吸干风暴能量的干燥空气，非洲沙尘也在阻碍风暴发展，可发展为风暴的“种子”天气系统也有所减少，这些都是厄尔尼诺现象的典型迹象。此外，大西洋上空的高压系统推动空气下沉，同样会阻碍风暴形成。
尽管世界海洋已经连续100天处于创纪录的高温状态——而温暖的海水通常会为风暴提供能量，但克洛茨巴赫表示，这正体现了厄尔尼诺现象足以抵消这一有利条件的强大影响力。
麻省理工学院气象学教授克里·伊曼纽尔表示，问题在于大西洋海水虽然温暖，但升温速度远不及上方大气——而大气因厄尔尼诺现象快速升温。他的研究发现，比海水温度更重要的是海气温差。飓风的能量来源于海洋向大气传递的热量，温差越大，风暴活动就越少。
伊曼纽尔指出，大西洋海水感受到厄尔尼诺效应的时间比大气晚几个月。但明年随着厄尔尼诺现象减弱并趋于正常，温暖海水仍将持续存在，这将增加下一个飓风季异常活跃的可能性。
一辆汽车在夏威夷欧申维尤附近的拉拉飓风期间，驶过悬挂在马马洛亚公路上方的倒塌电线杆，2026年8月15日，周六。斯蒂芬·拉姆/《旧金山纪事报》通过盖蒂图片社拍摄
正如厄尔尼诺通常会抑制大西洋飓风季活动一样，它往往会增强太平洋的热带气旋活动，带来湿润空气和较弱的风切变。今年迄今，东太平洋的风暴活动量几乎是正常水平的两倍，飓风持续时间也比往常更长。中太平洋的活动量则比正常水平高出约40%。
“东太平洋现在简直是‘风暴派对’，一场接一场，”克洛茨巴赫说道。
大西洋仅出现了5场小型热带风暴，而东太平洋已有16场命名风暴，中太平洋则有20场。
夏威夷已经两次遭遇风暴袭击。飓风洛厄尔上周袭击了夏威夷西部岛屿，导致考艾岛大范围停电。考艾岛的小型社区哈纳雷报告降雨量达17.76英寸。8月，拉拉飓风虽未在夏威夷群岛登陆，但造成了大范围停电，并冲毁了约100座房屋。这场一级飓风在大岛海岸外30英里处经过，带来了暴雨和时速80英里以上的阵风。
科博西埃罗表示，厄尔尼诺现象往往会将风暴推向比其他年份更西的位置。
由于科学家早已了解厄尔尼诺对两大洋风暴活动的影响，气象预报员早在数月前就预测大西洋飓风季会比较平静。
“我不认为有人真的能预见到局面会如此平静，”麦克诺迪说道，“这实在非同寻常。”
Powerful El Niño creates conditions for a record-low Atlantic hurricane season
September 12, 2026 11:26 AM EDT / CBS/AP
The Atlantic is quiet — record quiet — this hurricane season thanks to an enormous El Niño that crushes storms before they get going.
No Atlantic hurricanes have formed yet this year and none are likely to form for at least another week, even though this would normally be the peak of the season, according to the National Hurricane Center. The season officially runs from the beginning of June until the end of November. It normally peaks between August and October. Only five relatively weak and brief tropical storms have spun up this season.
On Saturday, 2026 set a record for the longest a season has begun without a storm that has reached winds of 64 mph to qualify as a hurricane — at least in the satellite era, said Nick Novella, a meteorologist at the government’s Weather Prediction Center. Before the 1950s there were a few years where no hurricanes were recorded this late in the season, but meteorologists don’t trust those records because ocean monitoring wasn’t complete.
Overall hurricane activity using a measurement that factors in the number of storms, their strength and how long they last is also at a post-1950 record low, according to Colorado State University hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach. Storm activity in the Atlantic is only 7% of normal for this time of year. A team of experts from Colorado State University predicted in their 2026 annual hurricane report that nine named storms would form in the Atlantic basin.
People shouldn’t let down their guard because it just takes one storm, even during an El Niño, to be catastrophic. Several experts pointed to 1992, which kicked off late but nastily with devastating Hurricane Andrew. Less powerful storms can also be dangerous.
“It’s really staggering, just how inhospitable the Atlantic is to anything that could form a tropical cyclone right now,” said Kristen Corbosiero, a University at Albany atmospheric science professor. “Anything that tries to form is just getting this triple whammy” of winds that decapitate a storm, dry air that starves it and downward pushing winds that basically stomp it.
Those three forces are classic impacts of El Niño, the natural and temporary warming of parts of the equatorial Pacific that warps and warms weather worldwide, five experts told The Associated Press. The last time an El Niño pattern occurred was in 2023. An El Niño pattern occurs every two to seven years.
“It’s just hammering the Atlantic. It’s just impressive,” Klotzbach said. “We haven’t even had anything really even close to a hurricane.”
Strong El Niño winds stop storms
The biggest El Niño effect in the Atlantic is record-strong wind shear, which is when strong easterly winds hit a storm system at low levels while strong westerly winds push it the other way at upper altitudes. The result is they “tear apart” the storm, Corbosiero said.
In the area between Africa and the Caribbean where the strongest storms normally form and head west, that wind shear is about 45 mph more than what a tropical cyclone can withstand, Corbosiero said. That’s an unheard-of level, she said.
“Their heads are cut off before they even have a chance,” said University of Miami hurricane expert Brian McNoldy.
The one area where wind shear hasn’t been high has been the Gulf of Mexico and those storms tend to really get going later in the season, so there could still be some strong ones coming to that region, Corbosiero and others warned.
Along with the dry air that starves the storm, African dust is choking it and there are fewer “seeds” of stormy weather that could develop, all classic El Niño signs, the experts said. And in the Atlantic, high pressure is pushing the air downward, which also hinders storms from forming, they said.
This is all despite warm waters — the world’s oceans have been record hot for 100 days — that normally feed storms. It shows the power of El Niño to overcome that, Klotzbach said.
The trouble is the Atlantic waters, while warm, haven’t warmed up nearly as quickly as the atmosphere above, which got hotter quickly as part of El Niño, said Massachusetts Institute of Technology meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel. His research found what matters more than just the water temperature is the difference in temperature between the air and the water. Because hurricanes are powered by the flow of heat from the ocean to the air. The higher that is, the less storm activity there will be.
The waters of the Atlantic are a few months behind the atmosphere in feeling the El Niño effect. But next year, as the El Niño winds down and cools closer to normal, the warm water will persist, which will increase the odds for next season to be extra busy, Emanuel said.
A vehicle approaches a downed utility pole dangling above Mamalahoa Highway during Hurricane Lala near Ocean View, Hawaii, Saturday, Aug. 15, 2026. Stephen Lam/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images
Just as El Niño traditionally dampens Atlantic hurricane season, it tends to rev up tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific, with moist air and little wind shear. And so far this year, storm activity in the eastern Pacific is nearly double normal, with hurricanes lasting much longer than usual. In the central Pacific, activity is about 40% more than normal.
“It’s just a party out there, one right after the other in the eastern Pacific,” Klotzbach said.
While the Atlantic has had only five small tropical storms, there have been 16 named storms in the eastern Pacific and 20 in the central Pacific.
Hawaii has been hit twice. Hurricane Lowell pelted Hawaii’s western islands last week, causing widespread power outages on the island of Kauai. The small Kauai community of Hanalei reported 17.76 inches of rain. In August, Hurricane Lala — though it didn’t make landfall on the islands — caused widespread power outages and washed away about 100 homes. The Category 1 hurricane passed 30 miles off the Big Island’s coast, bringing torrential rains and wind gusts over 80 mph.
El Niño tends to push storms farther west than other years, Corbosiero said.
Because scientists have long known about El Niño’s effects on storm activity in both oceans, forecasters months ago predicted a slow Atlantic hurricane season.
“I don’t think anyone really foresaw it being this quiet,” McNoldy said. “This is quite remarkable.”
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