2026年9月11日 / 美国东部时间上午10:18 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
8月通胀保持稳定，消费者价格同比上涨3.4%，与7月增速持平，但略高于经济学家的预期，因汽油价格持续推高整体物价水平。
分析师周五表示，这份高于预期的通胀报告提升了美联储将于下周实施三年多来首次加息的可能性。
关键数据
接受FactSet调查的经济学家此前预计8月通胀年率为3.3%。
消费者物价指数（CPI）是衡量消费者通常购买的一篮子商品和服务价格随时间变化的指标。
自5月达到三年高位以来，通胀已有所放缓，但受伊朗战争导致能源价格持续高企影响，通胀仍远高于美联储设定的2%目标。
美国劳工部周五表示，汽油价格上涨占当月CPI涨幅的三分之一以上。汽油价格同比上涨27.4%，但8月环比上涨3.9%。
剔除波动较大的能源和食品类别后的核心CPI年率为2.4%，符合经济学家预期，低于7月的2.5%。
不过，核心CPI环比上涨0.3%，高于经济学家预期，且增速较7月的0.2%有所加快。
这对利率意味着什么
最新的CPI数据可能会敲定美联储9月16日周三即将公布的利率决议。美联储主席凯文·沃什上个月在杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话中指出，抑制物价仍是央行的首要任务，如果通胀不回落，美联储“还有工作要做”。
根据基于30天联邦基金期货价格的CME美联储观察工具数据，周五通胀数据公布后，下周加息的概率从前一日的70%跃升至90%。
投资咨询公司Vital Knowledge负责人亚当·克里萨富利在一份报告中表示，最新的CPI数据显示通胀“依旧火热”，足以“证明”美联储本月加息的合理性。他还预计，鉴于近期能源价格飙升，9月通胀仍将处于高位。
持续的能源价格压力
受伊朗战争冲突升级影响，近几周能源价格持续上涨，柴油价格周四创下每加仑6美元的新高。由于柴油为往返美国各地运输货物的卡车和铁路提供动力，此次油价飙升可能会波及整个经济，企业将通过提高产品价格来抵消能源成本上涨的压力。
美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据显示，周五全国柴油平均零售价升至创纪录的每加仑6.06美元，较一年前的3.71美元上涨逾60%。
美国汽车协会报告称，汽油价格近期持续快速上涨，周五全国平均零售价达到每加仑4.30美元。专家周五表示，8月的通胀数据并未反映出近期汽油和柴油价格的飙升情况。
高盛资产管理公司多资产解决方案全球主管兼联席首席投资官亚历山德拉·威尔逊-埃利桑多在周五的一封邮件中表示：“问题在于，此次数据并未完全涵盖近期出现的部分通胀压力，几乎没有证据表明通胀将在短期内回归目标水平。”
她补充道：“调查时段早于能源价格的最新一轮上涨，随着霍尔木兹海峡局势持续紧张，布伦特原油价格已攀升至100美元以上。”
Inflation stayed hot in August with annual pace of 3.4%, raising the odds of a Fed hike
September 11, 2026 / 10:18 AM EDT / CBS News
Inflation held steady in August, with consumer prices rising 3.4% from a year earlier, matching July’s pace but coming in slightly higher than economists had forecast as gasoline costs kept prices elevated.
The hotter-than-expected report increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will issue its first interest rate hike in more than three years next week, analysts said on Friday.
By the numbers
Economists polled by FactSet expected inflation to rise in August at an annual rate of 3.3%.
The CPI, a basket of goods and services typically bought by consumers, tracks changes in prices over time.
Inflation has moderated since hitting a three-year high in May, but remains stuck well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal amid persistently high energy prices caused by the Iran war.
On Friday, the Labor Department said gasoline prices accounted for more than one-third of the monthly increase in the CPI report. Gasoline is up 27.4% from a year ago, although it increased 3.9% in August from the prior month.
Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile energy and food categories, rose at an annual rate of 2.4%, in line with economists’ expectations and down from 2.5% in July.
However, Core CPI jumped 0.3% on a monthly basis, higher than economists had forecast, and representing an acceleration from its 0.2% pace in July.
What it means for interest rates
The latest CPI data could cement the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, set for Wednesday, Sept. 16. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh indicated in a speech last month at Jackson Hole that reining in prices remains the central bank’s primary focus and that it will “have work to do” if inflation doesn’t fade.
After Friday’s release of the inflation data, the likelihood of a rate hike next week jumped to 90%, up from 70% the previous day, according to CME FedWatch, which bases its forecast on 30-day Fed funds futures prices.
Adam Crisafulli, head of investment advisory firm Vital Knowledge, said in a report that the latest CPI shows inflation is “still hot” and that it is “more than enough to justify” a Fed rate hike this month. He also expects inflation to remain elevated in September, given the recent spike in energy prices.
Ongoing energy price pressures
Energy prices have continued to rise in recent weeks amid an escalation of hostilities in the Iran war, with diesel hitting a painful new milestone of $6 a gallon on Thursday. Because diesel powers the trucks and railroads that transport goods around the U.S., the surge could ripple through the economy as businesses hike prices to offset their higher energy costs.
The national average for a gallon of diesel rose to a record $6.06 on Friday, up more than 60% from $3.71 a year ago, according to data from AAA.
The price of gasoline has continued its recent rapid rise, hitting a national average of $4.30 a gallon on Friday, AAA reported. The August data doesn’t reflect the recent surge in gas and diesel prices, experts said on Friday.
“The challenge is that the data does not fully capture some of the inflation pressures that have emerged more recently, and there is little evidence to suggest inflation is returning to target in the near term,” said Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, global head and co-chief investment officer of multi-asset solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, in a Friday email.
She added, “The survey period predates the latest move higher in energy prices, with Brent crude climbing above $100 as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz persist.”
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