2026-09-10T09:00:30.381Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
亚伦·布莱克 分析文章
发布于 2026年9月10日 美国东部时间早上5:00
特里斯滕·劳斯/CNN
本周不同寻常的共和党中期代表大会能否为竞选最后两个月激活选民基础仍未可知，但共和党显然需要一些助力。
近期民调显示，共和党在竞选冲刺阶段仍面临显著的热情赤字。
尤为关键的是，作为本次大会主角的唐纳德·特朗普总统，对其批评者的激励作用显然远胜于其支持者。
最近两份相关民调均于上周由马萨诸塞大学和路透社-益普索发布，两项民调均显示民主党在热情度上领先两位数。
在前一份民调中，民主党选民表示自己“非常热衷于”为中期选举投票的比例为42%，共和党为30%，领先12个百分点。在后一份民调中，两者差距为40%比27%。
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在针对“至少有些热情”的选民群体中，两项民调同样显示民主党占据优势——尽管优势幅度略小。
路透社-益普索的民调数据与2025年11月的结果相近，当时民主党刚在选举中表现亮眼。
这些数据也与今年7月其他民调机构的结果类似。
特里斯滕·劳斯/CNN
例如，美国有线电视新闻网由SSRS开展的民调显示，在“极度渴望”投票的选民中，民主党及倾向民主党的无党派选民占比60%，共和党及倾向共和党的无党派选民占比46%，差距达14个百分点。在“极度渴望”或“非常渴望”投票的选民中，民主党阵营的优势缩小至6个百分点（79%比73%）。
《华盛顿邮报》的民调显示，倾向民主党的选民“绝对肯定”会投票的比例比共和党高出7个百分点（73%比66%）；在“2026年投票比以往中期选举更重要”这一问题上，民主党选民的支持率比共和党高出21个百分点（70%比49%）。
最终，昆尼皮亚克大学的民调显示，在上述问题上两党差距为18个百分点（57%比39%）。
不同民调机构及不同类型民调所呈现的民主党优势惊人地一致。
更重要的是，这一模式与特朗普担任总统期间的上一次中期选举年——2018年十分相似，当年民主党在众议院选举中表现优异。
当时，同类民调显示，民主党普遍在积极性最高的选民群体中领先两位数，在“肯定会投票”的选民群体中领先中高个位数。
朱莉娅·德马雷·尼基森/美联社
2018年夏季的《华盛顿邮报》和昆尼皮亚克民调也显示，在“当年投票比其他中期选举更重要”的问题上，民主党优势达到17至18个百分点，与本次情况相似。
所有这些数据都预示着共和党将面临一场艰难的选举。但如果共和党能找到乐观理由，那就是民调结果并未更糟——尤其是在多数民调显示特朗普如今的支持率比八年前更低的情况下。2018年，尽管存在类似的热情差距，但最终选举结果仍十分胶着，共和党甚至拿下了参议院席位（得益于有利的选区地图，多名红州民主党议员面临艰难的连任挑战）。
这也让我们再次关注本周代表大会的另一重潜在影响：凸显特朗普的作用。
近期民调透露出的一个明确信息是，总统对反对者的激励作用远胜于其支持者：
- 62%的民主党人“强烈认同”自己投票在很大程度上基于对特朗普的看法，而这一比例在共和党人中仅为26%。
- 据CNN民调，70%倾向民主党的选民表示，他们的投票是为了传递反对特朗普的信息，而倾向共和党的选民中仅有41%表示投票是为了传递支持特朗普的信息。
- 同样在7月开展的皮尤研究中心民调中，上述比例分别为81%和42%。
所有这些数据都印证了特朗普的选民基础并未积极为他投票。这也进一步加剧了共和党的整体热情赤字。
或许本次代表大会能让部分特朗普支持者重新想起他们过去为何坚定支持他，或是让他们意识到为其他共和党候选人投票同样重要。
但特朗普一贯将这类活动完全聚焦于自身的行事风格，也可能产生相反效果——让他的支持者们更清晰地意识到自己为何对投票提不起兴致。
The GOP heads into the general election with a significant enthusiasm deficit
2026-09-10T09:00:30.381Z / CNN
Analysis by Aaron Blake
PUBLISHED Sep 10, 2026, 5:00 AM ET
American flags are seen in stadium seats at American Airlines Center in Dallas on Tuesday ahead of the GOP Midterm Convention.
Tristen Rouse/CNN
It remains to be seen whether this week’s unusual GOP midterm convention will fire up the base for the final two months of the campaign, but the party clearly needs some help.
Recent polling shows Republicans continue to suffer from a significant enthusiasm deficit heading into the stretch run of the campaign.
And crucially, President Donald Trump — who has been the star of the convention — is proving a much stronger motivator for his critics than his supporters.
The two most recent polls on this came from the University of Massachusetts and Reuters-Ipsos last week. And both show Democrats with a double-digit edge in enthusiasm.
In the former, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting in the midterms by a 42%-30% margin. In the latter, the gap was 40%-27%.
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Both also show Democrats with an edge — albeit a slightly smaller one — when it came to voters who were at least “somewhat enthusiastic.”
The Reuters-Ipsos numbers were similar to where they were in November 2025, shortly after Democrats had a very good election.
The numbers are also similar to what we saw in July from other pollsters.
Donald Trump, MAGA and Dallas-themed souvenirs are pictured on Tuesday ahead of the convention in Dallas.
Tristen Rouse/CNN
A CNN poll conducted by SSRS, for instance, showed a 14-point gap among those saying they were “extremely” motivated to vote — 60% among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents vs. 46% among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents. The blue side had a smaller 6-point edge in those saying they were either “extremely” or “very” motivated to vote (79%-73%).
A Washington Post poll showed Democratic-leaning voters were 7 points more likely to be “absolutely certain” to vote (73%-66%), and they were 21 points more likely to say it’s “more important” to vote in 2026 than in previous midterm elections (70%-49%).
And finally, a Quinnipiac University poll showed an 18-point gap on the latter question (57%-39%).
The Democratic advantage is remarkably similar across pollsters and across different types of questions.
What’s more, that pattern looks a lot like the last midterm election year with Trump as president — 2018, which was a good election for Democrats in the House.
Back then, the same polls showed Democrats generally benefited from a double-digit edge among the most motivated voters and a mid-to-high single-digit edge among those who said they were certain to vote.
Workers prepare the arena in Dallas on Tuesday.
Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP
The Washington Post and Quinnipiac polls in the summer of 2018 also showed Democrats with similar advantages when it came to those who said it was more important to vote that year than in other midterms (17-18 points).
All of these numbers suggest a tough election ahead for Republicans. But if there’s an optimistic case to be made for the GOP, it’s that the numbers aren’t worse, especially since Trump is more unpopular today than he was eight years ago, according to most every poll. Back then, with a similar enthusiasm gap, the 2018 election still ended up being close enough that the GOP gained Senate seats (thanks to a favorable map with multiple red-state Democrats facing daunting reelections).
All of that brings us to the other potential impact of this week’s convention: shining a light on Trump.
One thing that comes through in recent polls is that the president is a much more powerful motivator for the opposition than he is for his supporters:
- 62% of Democrats “strongly” agreed they would be voting in significant part based on their feelings about Trump, compared to just 26% of Republicans.
- 70% of Democratic-leaning voters said their vote was sending a message of opposition to Trump, compared to just 41% of Republican-leaners who said it would be a message of support, per the CNN poll.
- The same numbers were 81% and 42%, respectively, in a Pew Research Center poll also conducted in July.
All of those numbers reinforce that Trump’s base isn’t enthused about turning out for him. And that’s bleeding into the party’s larger enthusiasm gap.
Perhaps the convention will remind some Trump supporters why they’ve supported him more strongly in the past or convince them that turning out to vote for other Republicans is just that important.
But Trump’s penchant for making these kinds of things all about himself could also have the opposite effect — by reminding his base exactly why they’re so meh about voting.
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