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华盛顿讯 随着2026年初选季落下帷幕，决定参议院控制权归属的关键竞选已确定将于今年秋季中期选举展开。
共和党正努力保住当前的多数席位，目前共和党掌控53个参议院席位。本次选举的选区格局最初看似对共和党有利，因为他们需要防守的22个席位所在州，均是特朗普总统在2024年以较大优势获胜的州。但不受欢迎的伊朗战争以及持续存在的民生负担问题，让多个共和党掌控的席位竞争日益激烈，而民主党也正努力保卫少数几个席位，防止被共和党翻蓝。
若要拿下参议院多数席位，民主党需要在11月的选举中净增4个席位。
以下是12场值得关注的关键参议院选举：
缅因州：苏珊·柯林斯vs特洛伊·杰克逊
缅因州共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯（左）与民主党候选人特洛伊·杰克逊。盖蒂图片社
即便民主党提名人参选者、牡蛎养殖户格雷厄姆·普拉特纳曝出个人争议之前，缅因州的参议院选举就已备受关注。今年7月，普拉特纳因性侵指控退出竞选。
随后缅因州民主党人团结起来，推举特洛伊·杰克逊作为候选人，在11月挑战共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯。这场选举曾被视为民主党拿下席位的最直接机会。但这位已连任五届的参议员此前曾多次克服艰难的连任竞选挑战，而民主党混乱的初选进程也可能让局势变得复杂。
现年58岁的杰克逊是第五代伐木工，曾担任缅因州参议院议长，自称是工人阶级的捍卫者。伯尼·桑德斯参议员曾支持杰克逊参选州长，但他在今年6月的民主党初选中仅获得第三名，未能成功。
现年73岁的柯林斯自1997年起担任参议员，目前担任权力巨大的拨款委员会主席。她被认为是参议院中最独立的议员之一，经常与特朗普总统意见相左。但在2024年大选支持副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯的缅因州选民眼中，她的这种反对立场是否足够有说服力，仍有待观察。《库克政治报告》和弗吉尼亚大学政治中心均将这场选举评为“势均力敌”。
密歇根州：阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德vs迈克·罗杰斯
密歇根州民主党参议院候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德（左）与共和党候选人迈克·罗杰斯。盖蒂图片社
密歇根州的这场标志性参议院选举正在前共和党众议员迈克·罗杰斯与民主党人、前密歇根州卫生官员阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德之间展开。
现年41岁的埃尔赛义德在一场激烈的民主党初选中获胜，这场初选凸显了本选举周期内民主党内部关于政党发展方向的核心分歧。上月，他击败了一名获得全国民主党支持的温和派候选人，后者曾批评埃尔赛义德的政见在这个摇摆州过于极端。随着埃尔赛义德迎战罗杰斯，这一争议将接受检验。罗杰斯因在共和党初选中无对手参选，已有数月时间完善其大选竞选纲领。
现年63岁的罗杰斯是陆军退伍军人、前联邦调查局特工，2001年至2015年代表密歇根州在众议院任职。他曾在2024年竞选密歇根州另一参议院席位，仅以不到2万票的差距输给民主党参议员埃莉莎·斯洛特金。
罗杰斯与埃尔赛义德将角逐民主党参议员加里·彼得斯退休后留下的空缺席位。密歇根州在近期选举中交替支持民主党和共和党总统候选人。该州上一次选举共和党人参议院议员还是在1994年，而特朗普在2024年以不到2个百分点的优势赢得该州。《库克政治报告》和弗吉尼亚大学政治中心均将这场选举评为“势均力敌”。
俄亥俄州：乔恩·赫斯特德vs谢罗德·布朗
俄亥俄州共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特德（左）与民主党参议院候选人谢罗德·布朗。盖蒂图片社
在俄亥俄州，前参议员谢罗德·布朗正寻求重返参议院，而共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特德则首次为捍卫自己的席位而战。
现年73岁的布朗在2024年寻求第四个参议院任期时，输给了共和党参议员伯尼·莫雷诺，但他一直保持着强大的工人阶级形象，且在该州拥有广泛的知名度，被视为极具竞争力的对手。
现年59岁的赫斯特德曾担任俄亥俄州副州长和国务卿。去年他被任命填补副总统JD·万斯留下的参议院席位。
俄亥俄州上一次选举民主党人参议员还是在2018年布朗连任成功之时，该州在过去三届总统选举中均支持共和党候选人。但民主党人认为仍有获胜机会：布朗在2024年的选举中仅以4个百分点的差距落败，而同年特朗普在该州的胜势超过10个百分点。《库克政治报告》和弗吉尼亚大学政治中心均将这场选举评为“势均力敌”。
阿拉斯加州：丹·沙利文vs玛丽·佩尔托拉及其他候选人
在这片“最后的边疆”州，现任参议员丹·沙利文正寻求保住自己的席位，面临前民主党众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉的严峻挑战，而另一位名叫丹·沙利文的候选人也让本已竞争激烈的选举更加复杂。
在阿拉斯加州，初选得票前四的候选人将进入大选。尽管现任参议员和佩尔托拉是本次选举的热门人选，但丹尼尔·J·沙利文（现任参议员为丹尼尔·S·沙利文）和杰拉尔德·海克斯也晋级大选，选举将通过排序复选制决定结果。
第二位沙利文是一名前教师，今年6月宣布挑战现任参议员，促使现任参议员推动将其从选票上移除，但未能成功。初选结果出炉后，两位丹·沙利文都将出现在选票上，这可能让现任参议员的连任前景变得复杂。
现年61岁的沙利文是连任两届的参议员，也是海军陆战队退伍军人，曾在乔治·W·布什政府时期的国务院工作。他的主要竞争对手是现年53岁的佩尔托拉，后者在2022年成为50年来首位代表该州在众议院任职的民主党人。
佩尔托拉在2024年阿拉斯加州唯一的众议院席位连任竞选中最终落败，尽管她仅以不到3个百分点的差距失利，而同年特朗普在该州以13个百分点的优势获胜。尽管阿拉斯加州自2008年以来就没有选举过民主党人参议院议员，但作为首位进入国会的阿拉斯加原住民，佩尔托拉将自己塑造为该州的独立声音。佩尔托拉在8月的初选中获得最高票数。
《库克政治报告》和弗吉尼亚大学政治中心均将这场选举评为“势均力敌”。
德克萨斯州：肯·帕克斯顿vs詹姆斯·塔拉里科
左为德克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿，右为州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科。P照片/LM·奥特罗和埃里克·盖伊，档案照片
民主党人期待已久的胜利机会出现在孤星之州，州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科将与总检察长肯·帕克斯顿展开本届选举周期最受关注的竞选之一。
现年63岁的帕克斯顿在共和党初选中击败参议员约翰·科宁，成功获得提名。这位自2002年起代表德克萨斯州的现任参议员，凭借特朗普最后时刻的背书成功翻盘。鉴于帕克斯顿过往的个人争议以及更为保守的政见，民主党人认为11月的参选将让他们的胜算提升。尽管共和党人仍对保住席位充满信心，但部分人承认这场竞选将十分艰难且耗资巨大。
现年37岁的塔拉里科曾是教师和 Presbyterian神学院学生。尽管德克萨斯州自1988年以来就没有选举过民主党人参议院议员，但民主党人希望塔拉里科能成为获胜候选人，他自称是“进步派基督徒”。共和党人抓住他此前关于素食主义和性别议题的言论，称他对德克萨斯州来说过于极端，但选民是否认同这一说法仍有待观察。
《库克政治报告》和弗吉尼亚大学政治中心均将这场选举评为“势均力敌”。
艾奥瓦州：乔希·图雷克vs阿什利·辛普森
共和党众议员阿什利·辛普森与民主党州众议员乔希·图雷克将于11月对决，角逐艾奥瓦州的参议院席位。此前共和党参议员乔尼·恩斯特宣布不寻求连任，为这个近年来日益右转的州带来了一场出人意料的激烈竞争。
恩斯特宣布退选后，共和党人迅速团结在现年43岁的辛普森身后，她自2021年起代表艾奥瓦州在众议院任职。这位前本地新闻主播获得了总统的背书，并誓言要成为参议院中总统的“头号盟友”，同时围绕医疗保健、退伍军人福利和打击腐败等议题展开竞选。
现年47岁的图雷克是州众议员，曾是轮椅篮球残奥会选手。在他致力于将艾奥瓦州的参议院席位翻蓝的过程中，他强调自己作为该州最保守选区民主党代表的经历。在竞选活动中，他指出自己跨党派合作的记录，并承诺与总统合作。
尽管艾奥瓦州自2008年以来就没有选举过民主党人参议院议员，且特朗普在2024年以13个百分点的优势赢得该州，但民主党人仍对胜算抱有希望，因为民生负担问题和特朗普的关税政策让艾奥瓦州选民不满。民主党人还希望州审计员罗布·桑德在州长选举中的出色表现能为图雷克带来助力。在这个近年来已成为共和党票仓的州，民主党人要翻转席位将面临巨大挑战。《库克政治报告》将这场选举评为“势均力敌”，而弗吉尼亚大学政治中心则将其评为“倾向共和党”。
佐治亚州：乔恩·奥索夫vs迈克·柯林斯
佐治亚州民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫（左）与佐治亚州共和党众议员迈克·柯林斯。美联社照片/曼努埃尔·巴尔塞·塞纳塔和J·斯科特·阿普尔怀特
共和党众议员迈克·柯林斯将在佐治亚州挑战参议员乔恩·奥索夫，这场竞争激烈的选举曾被认为是共和党拿下席位的最轻松机会之一。
奥索夫是该州唯一寻求连任的民主党参议员，而特朗普在2024年赢得了佐治亚州。但混乱的共和党初选推迟了针对这位第一任期参议员的大选挑战计划。
现年59岁的柯林斯在6月的初选 runoff 中胜出，成为共和党候选人。他是一家货运公司的老板，自2023年起代表佐治亚州在众议院任职，在参议院竞选中将自己塑造成总统的坚定盟友，并宣扬自己牵头推出了以佐治亚州护理学生莱肯·莱利命名的移民法案。与此同时，他将奥索夫描绘为脱离佐治亚州选民价值观的人。但他的竞选团队也因身边人员的争议蒙上阴影，其中一名前助手被曝在社交媒体上分享纳粹和三K党相关图片。
现年39岁的奥索夫于2021年进入参议院，此前曾在国会山担任幕僚，并从事调查新闻工作。当时他帮助民主党拿下了佐治亚州的两场 runoff 胜利之一，确保了民主党对参议院的控制权。如今，这位可能在2028年参选总统的参议员，正努力在这个上次选举中向右倾斜的州保住席位。
佐治亚州上一次选举共和党人参议院议员还是在2016年。民主党人认为，在伊朗战争不受欢迎以及白宫其他政策引发不满的背景下，柯林斯与总统的密切关系将成为奥索夫的助力。《库克政治报告》将这场选举评为“倾向民主党”，而弗吉尼亚大学政治中心则将其评为“大概率民主党”。
新罕布什尔州：克里斯·帕帕斯vs约翰·苏努努
众议员克里斯·帕帕斯（左）与前参议员约翰·苏努努。盖蒂图片社/美联社
民主党参议员珍妮·沙欣宣布不寻求连任后，民主党众议员克里斯·帕帕斯与前共和党参议员约翰·苏努努将在新罕布什尔州角逐开放的参议院席位。
现年46岁的帕帕斯自2019年起代表新罕布什尔州在众议院任职。他将自己塑造为独立声音，并以在国会的记录为竞选纲领，他是两党问题解决核心小组的成员。
现年61岁的苏努努曾在众议院和参议院代表新罕布什尔州超过十年，随后被沙欣击败。他是前州长约翰·H·苏努努的儿子，也是前州长克里斯·苏努努的兄弟，其姓氏在新罕布什尔州拥有巨大影响力。
新罕布什尔州自2010年以来就没有选举过共和党人参议院议员，共和党人上一次在该州赢得总统选举还是在2000年。但共和党人自2017年起一直掌控州长职位。《库克政治报告》和弗吉尼亚大学政治中心均将这场选举评为“倾向民主党”。
北卡罗来纳州：迈克尔·沃特利vs罗伊·库珀
迈克尔·沃特利（左）与前北卡罗来纳州州长罗伊·库珀。美联社照片/德里克·汉密尔顿和克里斯·卡尔森
参议员汤姆·蒂利斯宣布不寻求连任后，前州长罗伊·库珀与前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·沃特利将于11月在北卡罗来纳州对决，为这个摇摆州的关键席位展开争夺。
这个“焦油脚跟之州”是民主党人本选举周期内翻转席位的最佳机会。民主党成功招募到了理想的候选人：现年69岁的库珀，两届州长，也是北卡罗来纳州历史上任职时间最长的州总检察长。
现年57岁的沃特利从未竞选过公职。他曾在乔治·W·布什前政府任职，担任前北卡罗来纳州参议员伊丽莎白·多尔的幕僚长，随后担任州共和党主席，并作为共和党全国委员会主席在特朗普的连任竞选中发挥了关键作用。他在总统的鼓励下参选参议院席位，竞选纲领围绕帮助落实特朗普的议程和捍卫保守价值观展开。
北卡罗来纳州自2008年以来就没有选举过民主党参议员，同年该州选民最后一次支持民主党总统候选人。但民主党人认为库珀能够打破这一局面。
《库克政治报告》和弗吉尼亚大学政治中心均将这场选举评为“倾向民主党”。
明尼苏达州：佩吉·弗拉纳根vs米歇尔·塔福亚
明尼苏达州参议院候选人：民主党副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根（左）与共和党候选人米歇尔·塔福亚。盖蒂图片社
民主党参议员蒂娜·史密斯宣布不寻求连任后，副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根与前体育广播员米歇尔·塔福亚将角逐明尼苏达州开放的参议院席位。
现年46岁的弗拉纳根是副州长，曾担任州众议员。她在8月的初选中击败了一名更为温和的候选人，以全民医保等进步派议题为竞选纲领，并获得了伯尼·桑德斯参议员和伊丽莎白·沃伦参议员等人的背书。
现年61岁的塔福亚在共和党初选中击败了一众对手。她以“恢复问责制”为竞选纲领，此前该州发生的多起数百万美元欺诈案引发了公众不满。尽管明尼苏达州自2002年以来就没有选举过共和党人参议院议员，但共和党人希望能有所突破，他们认为这个在2024年仅以4个百分点的差距支持副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯的州存在机会。
共和党人认为，可以将弗拉纳根与明尼苏达州州长对该州欺诈案的处理方式联系起来，作为竞选卖点。但明尼苏达州也曾是特朗普政府有争议的移民执法行动的中心，今年1月联邦特工在明尼阿波利斯枪杀了两名美国公民，这一国土安全政策在民主党初选中成为核心议题，预计也将在11月的选举中占据重要地位。
《库克政治报告》和弗吉尼亚大学政治中心均将这场选举评为“大概率民主党”。
堪萨斯州：罗杰·马歇尔vs亚当·汉密尔顿
共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔正为捍卫自己的席位而战，近几个月来，在中间派民主党人、牧师亚当·汉密尔顿的挑战下，这场选举出人意料地变得竞争激烈。
现年66岁的马歇尔自2017年起代表堪萨斯州在众议院任职，如今正寻求连任参议员。这位第五代堪萨斯人是一名内科医生，曾担任25年妇产科医生，并在美国陆军预备役服役，进入国会后一直坚定支持总统的议程。
现年62岁的汉密尔顿同样是第五代堪萨斯人，领导着美国最大的联合卫理公会教堂。他以民生负担问题为核心竞选纲领，旨在组建跨党派联盟挑战马歇尔。作为知名作家和演讲者，他的高知名度和筹款能力让他成为极具竞争力的对手。
堪萨斯州上一次选举民主党人参议院议员还是在1932年。但近年来，这个“向日葵之州”在州长选举中交替选举民主党和共和党人，目前州长职位由民主党人掌控。
《库克政治报告》和弗吉尼亚大学政治中心均将这场选举评为“大概率共和党”。
内布拉斯加州：皮特·里基茨vs丹·奥斯本
独立候选人丹·奥斯本（左）与共和党内布拉斯加州参议员皮特·里基茨。盖蒂图片社：奥斯本：比尔·克拉克/CQ-Roll Call / 里基茨：凯文·迪奇
独立候选人丹·奥斯本今年再次挑战共和党现任参议员，试图拿下内布拉斯加州的参议院席位，他在2024年的竞选中仅以个位数差距落败。
现年51岁的奥斯本曾是工会领袖，2024年以7个百分点的差距输给了共和党参议员黛比·费舍尔。如今他正试图挑战2023年被任命进入参议院的前内布拉斯加州州长皮特·里基茨。现年62岁的里基茨在去年的特别选举中轻松获胜，将完成参议员本·萨斯剩余的两年任期。
奥斯本曾表示，如果当选，他将保持独立身份，不计划与共和党或民主党党团结盟。
内布拉斯加州自2006年以来就没有选举过非共和党籍的参议员，该州整体属于坚定的红色州。但该州也拥有大量无党派选民，由于民主党候选人退出竞选，奥斯本有望凭借这部分选民的支持缩小差距。《库克政治报告》和弗吉尼亚大学政治中心均将这场选举评为“大概率共和党”。
12 key races that will determine who controls the Senate
2026-09-09T09:12:00-0400 / CBS News
Washington — The key contests that will determine who wins control of the Senate are now set for the fall midterm elections, as the 2026 primary season wraps up.
Republicans are fighting to hold onto their majority, where the GOP currently controls 53 seats. The map this cycle initially appeared to be working in their favor, since most of the 22 seats the GOP is defending are in states that President Trump won by comfortable margins in 2024. But the unpopular war with Iran and persistent affordability issues have helped make several Republican-held seats increasingly competitive, while Democrats are trying to defend a handful of other seats from possible GOP flips.
To secure a majority, Democrats would need to net four seats in November’s election.
These are the 12 key Senate races to watch:
Maine: Susan Collins vs. Troy Jackson
Maine GOP Sen. Susan Collins, left, and Maine Democratic candidate Troy Jackson. Getty Images
The Maine Senate race was closely watched even before personal controversies arose around the Democratic nominee, oyster farmer Graham Platner. In July, he bowed out of the race in the wake of a sexual assault allegation.
Maine Democrats then rallied around Troy Jackson as their nominee to take on GOP Sen. Susan Collins in November, in a race that once appeared to be Democrats’ most straightforward opportunity for a pickup. But the five-term senator has overcome difficult reelection fights in the past, and Democrats’ chaotic primary process could complicate the picture.
Jackson, 58, is a fifth-generation logger who was previously president of the Maine state Senate and bills himself as a champion of the working class. Sen. Bernie Sanders backed Jackson’s failed run for governor — he finished third in the Democratic primary in June.
Collins, 73, has been in the Senate since 1997 and helms the powerful appropriations committee. She’s considered among the most independent minded in the Senate, often breaking with President Trump. But whether that opposition is enough for Mainers, who supported Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, remains to be seen. The Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics rate the race as a toss-up.
Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers
Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, left, and GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers. Getty Images
Another marquee Senate race has been playing out in Michigan between former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a former Michigan health official.
El-Sayed, 41, won a divisive Democratic primary that highlighted a central fight this cycle over the direction of the party. He prevailed last month against a moderate candidate who was backed by national Democrats and who argued that El-Sayed’s views were too far afield in the battleground state. That question will be put to the test as El-Sayed takes on Rogers, who’s had months to refine his general election pitch, since he ran unopposed in the GOP primary.
Rogers, 63, is an Army veteran and former FBI agent who represented Michigan in the House from 2001 to 2015. He ran for Michigan’s other Senate seat in 2024, but lost to Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin by less than 20,000 votes.
Rogers and El-Sayed are running to fill the vacancy left by Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’ retirement. Michigan has flipped between supporting Democrats and Republican presidents in recent elections.
The state last elected a Republican to the Senate in 1994, and Mr. Trump won the state by less than two points in 2024. The Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics rate the race a toss-up.
Ohio: Jon Husted vs. Sherrod Brown
GOP Ohio Sen. Jon Husted, left, and, Ohio Senate Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown. Getty Images
In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown is seeking a return to the Senate as Republican Sen. Jon Husted defends his seat for the first time.
Brown, 73, lost his reelection bid for a fourth term to GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno in 2024, but he has maintained a strong working-class brand and with widespread name recognition in the state, he is considered a formidable opponent.
Husted, 59, previously served as Ohio’s lieutenant governor and secretary of state. He was appointed to the seat last year to replace Vice President JD Vance in the Senate.
Ohioans last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2018, when Brown won reelection, and the state has backed Republicans in the last three presidential elections. But Democrats see a path to winning, after Brown lost his last race in 2024 by just four points in a state that Mr. Trump won by more than 10 the same year. The Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics rate the race as a toss-up.
Alaska: Dan Sullivan vs. Mary Peltola and others
In the Last Frontier state, Sen. Dan Sullivan is seeking to hold onto his Senate seat amid a serious challenge from former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, while another Dan Sullivan has added a wrinkle to the already competitive race.
In Alaska, the top four vote getters in the primary advance to the general election. And while the sitting senator and Peltola are the front runners in the race, Daniel J. Sullivan (the senator is Daniel S. Sullivan) and Gerald Heikes also advanced to the general election, which will be decided by ranked-choice voting.
The second Sullivan, a former teacher, announced he was challenging the sitting senator in June, prompting an unsuccessful push by the senator to remove him from the ballot. But after the primary results, both Dan Sullivans are set to appear on the ballot, potentially complicating the incumbent senator’s chances.
Sullivan, 61, is a second-term senator and a Marine veteran who worked at the State Department during the George W. Bush administration. His main competition is Peltola, 53, who became the first Democrat to represent the state in the House in 50 years in 2022.
Peltola ultimately lost her reelection bid for Alaska’s sole House seat in 2024, although she fell short by less than three points while Mr. Trump won the state by 13 points. And although Alaska hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, Peltola, the first Alaska Native to serve in Congress, has framed herself as an independent voice for the state. Peltola was the top vote-getter in the August primary.
The Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics rate the race as a toss-up.
Texas: Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico
At left, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and at right, Texas state Rep. James Talarico. P Photo/LM Otero and Eric Gay,File
Democrats are eyeing a long-sought victory in the Lone Star State as Texas state Rep. James Talarico takes on Attorney General Ken Paxton in among the most closely watched races this cycle.
Paxton, 63, defeated Sen. John Cornyn in a runoff for the GOP nomination, ousting the incumbent senator who has represented Texas since 2002 with the support of a last-minute Trump endorsement. Democrats saw their chances improving with Paxton on the ticket this November, given his history of personal controversies and his more conservative positions. And though Republicans remain confident in their chances of holding onto the seat, some concede that the race will be tough — and expensive.
Talarico, 37, is a former teacher and Presbyterian seminarian. Although Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, Democrats are hoping they have a winning candidate in Talarico, who calls himself a progressive Christian. Republicans have seized on previous comments he’s made on issues like veganism and gender, claiming he’s too extreme for Texas, but it remains to be seen whether voters agree.
The Cook Political Report and University of Virginia’s Center for Politics rate the race as a toss-up.
Iowa: Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson
GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek will face off in November to represent Iowa in the Senate after GOP Sen. Joni Ernst announced she wouldn’t seek reelection, opening up what’s become a surprisingly competitive race in a state that’s shifted to the right in recent years.
After Ernst’s announcement, Republicans quickly rallied behind Hinson, 43, who has represented Iowa in the House since 2021. The former local news anchor has the president’s endorsement and has vowed to be his “top ally” in the Senate, while campaigning on issues like healthcare, veterans benefits, and fighting corruption.
Turek, 47, is a state representative and former wheelchair basketball Paralympian. And as he aims to flip Iowa’s Senate seat blue this cycle, he’s touting his history as the Democrat representing the most conservative district in the state. On the campaign trail, he points to his record of working across the aisle and pledges to work with the president.
Although Iowa hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, and Mr. Trump won the state by 13 points in 2024, Democrats have been hopeful about their chances, as affordability issues and the Trump tariff policies weigh on Iowans. Democrats also hope that a strong showing from Auditor Rob Sand in the governor’s race could buoy Turek in November. It will be challenging for a Democrat to flip the seat in a state that’s become a Republican stronghold in recent years. The Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up, while the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics ranks it as leaning Republican.
Georgia: Jon Ossoff vs. Mike Collins
Sen. Jon Ossoff, a Georgia Democrat, pictured on the left, and at right, Rep. Mike Collins, a Georgia Republican. AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta and J. Scott Applewhite
GOP Rep. Mike Collins is taking on Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia in a competitive race that was once expected to be the easiest pickup opportunity for Republicans.
Ossoff is the sole Democrat seeking reelection in a state that Mr. Trump won in 2024. But a messy Republican primary blunted efforts to launch the general election fight to unseat the first-term senator.
Collins, 59, became the Republican nominee in June after the primary went to a runoff. The owner of a trucking business, Collins has represented Georgia in the House since 2023, and has pitched himself in the Senate race as a staunch ally of the president, while touting his sponsorship of an immigration bill named for Georgia nursing student Laken Riley. At the same time, he’s cast Ossoff as out of touch with Georgian values. But his campaign has also been marked with controversies surrounding people in Collins’ circle, including a former staffer who reportedly shared Nazi and KKK images on social media.
Ossoff, 39, first came to the Senate in 2021, after previously working as a staffer on Capitol Hill and in investigative journalism. At the time, he delivered Democrats one of two runoff victories in Georgia, securing the party’s control of the chamber. Now, Ossoff, a possible 2028 White House hopeful, is fighting to hold onto the seat in a state that shifted toward the right during the last election.
Georgians haven’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 2016. And Democrats see Collins’ closeness to the president as a possible boon for Ossoff amid the unpopular war with Iran and other White House policies. The Cook Political Report rates the race as leaning Democrat, while the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics rates the race as likely Democrat.
New Hampshire: Chris Pappas vs. John Sununu
Rep. Chris Pappas, left, and former Sen. John Sununu. Getty Images / AP
Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and former GOP Sen. John Sununu are vying for an open Senate seat in New Hampshire after Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen opted not to seek reelection in the Granite State.
Pappas, 46, has represented New Hampshire in the House since 2019. He’s billed himself as an independent voice and campaigned on his record in Congress, where he’s a member of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus.
Sununu, 61, represented New Hampshire in the House and Senate for more than a decade, before he was ousted by Shaheen. The son of former Gov. John H. Sununu and brother of former Gov. Chris Sununu, his name carries significant weight in New Hampshire.
New Hampshire hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 2010, and a Republican hasn’t won in the state at the presidential level since 2000. But Republicans have controlled the governor’s mansion since 2017. The Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics rate the race as leaning Democrat.
North Carolina: Michael Whatley vs. Roy Cooper
Michael Whatley, left, and at right, former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper. AP Photo/Derik Hamilton and Chris Carlson
Former Gov. Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley will face off in North Carolina in November after Sen. Thom Tillis announced he wouldn’t seek reelection, opening up a key seat in the competitive state.
The Tar Heel State offers a key prize for Democrats, representing their best chance at flipping a seat this cycle. And the party secured their dream recruit in Cooper, 69, a two-term governor and the longest-serving state attorney general in North Carolina’s history.
Whatley, 57, has never run for office. He worked in former President George W. Bush’s administration and as chief of staff for former North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole before serving as chairman of the state Republican Party and going on to play a key role in Mr. Trump’s reelection effort as RNC chair. He entered the Senate race with the president’s encouragement and has campaigned on helping enact Mr. Trump’s agenda and fighting for conservative values.
North Carolina hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 2008, the same year voters in the state last supported a Democrat at the presidential level. But Democrats think Cooper can break that streak.
The Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics rate the race as leaning Democrat.
Minnesota: Peggy Flanagan vs. Michele Tafoya
Minnesota U.S. Senate candidates: Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, left, and Republican Michele Tafoya. Getty Images
Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya are vying for an open Senate seat representing Minnesota, after Democratic Sen. Tina Smith opted not to seek reelection in the North Star state.
Flanagan, 46, is the lieutenant governor and a former state representative. She won the Democratic primary in August against a more moderate candidate, running on progressive priorities like Medicare for All and securing endorsements from the likes of Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
Tafoya, 61, beat out a crowded field for the GOP nomination. She’s campaigned on restoring accountability as multimillion-dollar fraud schemes have rattled the state. And although Minnesota hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002, the GOP is hoping to make inroads as they seek to hold onto control of the chamber next year, seeing some opportunity in a state that former Vice President Kamala Harris won by just four points in 2024.
Republicans see a possible winning argument with Flanagan being tied to the Minnesota governor’s handling of the fraud schemes in the state. But Minnesota has also been at the center of the Trump administration’s controversial immigration crackdown, which saw the fatal shootings of two American citizens by federal agents in Minneapolis in January. The homeland security policies played a big role in the Democratic primary and will likely remain top of mind in November.
The Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics rate the race as likely Democrat.
Kansas: Roger Marshall vs. Adam Hamilton
GOP Sen. Roger Marshall is defending his seat in a race that has appeared to become surprisingly competitive in recent months amid a challenge from Rev. Adam Hamilton, a centrist Democrat.
Marshall, 66, is seeking a second term in the Senate after representing Kansas in the House since 2017. The fifth-generation Kansan is a medical doctor who worked for 25 years as an OB-GYN and served in the U.S. Army Reserves before coming to Capitol Hill, where he’s been a reliable supporter of the president’s agenda.
Hamilton, 62, is also a fifth-generation Kansan who leads the U.S.’ largest United Methodist church. He’s running on an affordability-focused agenda, while aiming to bring together a cross-party coalition to take on Marshall. And as a well-known author and speaker, his high profile and fundraising chops have made him a formidable opponent.
Kansas last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1932. But the Sunflower state has regularly oscillated between electing Democrats and Republicans in gubernatorial races in recent decades, and currently has a Democrat in the governor’s mansion.
The Cook Political Report and University of Virginia’s Center for Politics rate the race as likely Republican.
Nebraska: Pete Ricketts vs. Dan Osborn
Independent candidate Dan Osborn, left, and GOP Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts. Getty Images: Osborn: Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call / Ricketts: Kevin Dietsch
Independent candidate Dan Osborn is making a second attempt to unseat a Republican incumbent in Nebraska’s Senate race this year, after losing his bid by single digits in 2024.
Osborn, 51, a former union leader lost to GOP Sen. Deb Fischer by seven points in 2024. Now he’s attempting to unseat Sen. Pete Ricketts, the former Nebraska governor who was appointed to the Senate in 2023. Ricketts, 62, easily won his bid in a special election last year to serve out the remaining two years of Sen. Ben Sasse’s term.
Osborn has said if he wins, he would remain independent and does not plan to caucus with either Republicans or Democrats.
Nebraskans haven’t elected a candidate who wasn’t a Republican since 2006, and the state is solidly red. But it’s also home to a large share of nonpartisan voters, who could make the race within striking distance for Osborn, given that the Democratic candidate withdrew from the race. The Cook Political Report and University of Virginia’s Center for Politics rate the race as likely Republican.
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