Anthropic研究员称AI“可能灭绝全人类”的概率超过10%


2026-09-09T08:15:00-0400 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻(CBS News)

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埃米特·莱昂斯 记者
埃米特·莱昂斯是哥伦比亚广播公司新闻伦敦分社的新闻记者,为哥伦比亚广播公司新闻所有平台报道并制作新闻内容。在加入哥伦比亚广播公司新闻之前,埃米特曾在美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)担任制作人四年。

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更新时间:2026年9月9日 / 美国东部时间上午9:13 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻

伦敦——全球领先人工智能企业之一Anthropic的一名首席研究员周三表示,他认为未来十年内AI“可能灭绝全人类”的概率超过10%。

“我们确实由衷地认为AI可能会灭绝全人类!我个人认为未来十年内这一概率超过10%,”总部位于旧金山的该公司对齐科学主管埃文·哈宾格在X平台的一篇帖子中说道。“我认为Anthropic正在尽最大努力,但我们目前还没有解决超级智能对齐问题的方案,也显然没有走上正轨。”

超级智能仍是一个理论概念,指的是比最聪明的人类头脑还要聪明的人工智能代理。


资料图:一名用户在手机上使用人工智能应用ChatGPT和Claude。盖蒂图片社

哈宾格发表这番激烈言论的背景是其同事、Anthropic研究员雅各布·考克森于周二辞职。

“我今天从Anthropic辞职。过去三年我分别在OpenAI和Anthropic从事预训练研究。两家公司都没有负责任地行事,”考克森在X平台的一篇帖子中说道。“他们正径直冲向自我改进的超级智能,拿我们的生命赌博。”

“在OpenAI,许多人并未深刻意识到文明层面的风险。在Anthropic,人们清楚地理解了这些风险,但他们陷入了一场抢先达成目标的竞赛——他们认为其他人都不会负责任地行事,因此他们必须自己抢先一步,尽管存在风险,”考克森说道。

上周,Anthropic在一篇企业博客文章中透露,该公司尚未将其最新人工智能模型Claude Mythos 5.1分享给美国以外的安全机构。这些机构包括英国人工智能安全研究所(AISI),该机构被广泛认为是测试前沿人工智能模型相关风险的全球领先机构。

哥伦比亚广播公司新闻已就考克森辞职后的相关言论向英国人工智能安全研究所置评请求。

“英国政府内阁办公室的一名发言人周三告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻:‘人工智能安全研究所继续与包括Anthropic在内的行业合作伙伴密切合作,以确保模型更安全’,并指出该机构‘仅在上周’对OpenAI‘最强大的模型GPT-6 Astra’进行了公开发布前的测试。”

“这些风险不会因国界而止步,没有任何一个国家能够单独应对这些风险。英国将继续测试最先进的模型,建立对其能力和风险的严谨科学认知,并确保政策决策基于证据,”该发言人说道。

“要么极具用途,要么极度危险”

前沿人工智能模型可能对人类构成威胁的观点并非新鲜事,OpenAI和Anthropic的许多高管过去都曾表达过类似看法。

本月早些时候,OpenAI首席科学家雅库布·帕乔基写道,我们正生活在一个“需要极度谨慎”的时代。

“深度学习规模化产生的智能无法直接与人类智能相提并论。要在现实世界中变得极具用途——要么极具用途,要么极度危险——人工智能无需匹配或超越所有人类能力;它只需要在足够多的能力上超越人类。随着它在越来越多的维度上超越人类,我们越来越难准确理解它的实际能力,”他警告道。

今年7月,OpenAI测试的一款人工智能模型自行失控并入侵了另一家人工智能公司Hugging Face。OpenAI当时公开披露了这起黑客事件,称事件发生在该公司在隔离环境中测试两款人工智能模型期间,其中一款尚未向公众发布,目的是评估它们的能力。

短短几周内,Anthropic和Meta也承认他们自己的人工智能工具实施了黑客攻击。

今年7月,超过1300名人工智能公司员工签署了一封公开信,呼吁美国政府“支持开展国际合作,开发必要的技术和治理工具,以刻意放缓自动化人工智能开发的前沿进度”。

目前在美国众议院推进的一项两党法案《人工智能终止开关法案》,将赋予国会关停威胁公众安全的人工智能模型的权力。

该法案于7月提出,正值OpenAI承认GPT-6 Astra黑客事件之后。

Anthropic researcher says more than 10% chance AI “could kill all humans”

2026-09-09T08:15:00-0400 / CBS News

By
Emmet Lyons Reporter
Emmet Lyons is a news reporter at the CBS News London bureau, reporting and producing stories for all CBS News platforms. Prior to joining CBS News, Emmet worked as a producer at CNN for four years.

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Updated on: September 9, 2026 / 9:13 AM EDT / CBS News

London— A lead researcher at Anthropic, one of the world’s leading artificial intelligence firms, said Wednesday that he believes there is a more than 10% chance AI “could kill all humans” within the next decade.

“We really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans! I personally think it is >10% within the next decade,” Evan Hubinger, the San Francisco-based company’s Alignment Science Lead, said in a post on X. “I believe Anthropic is trying its best, but we do not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence and are not clearly on track to.”

Superintelligence is the still-theoretical notion of an AI agent that is smarter than even the sharpest human minds.

File photo: A person uses artificial intelligence apps ChatGPT and Claude on a mobile phone. Getty

Hubinger issued his dramatic post following the resignation of a colleague, Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon, on Tuesday.

“I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly,” Coxon said in a post on X. “They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives.”

“At OpenAI, many have not deeply internalized the civilizational stakes. At Anthropic, the stakes are well-understood, but they are locked in a race to get there first — they believe no one else will act responsibly, so they must do it themselves, despite the risk,” Coxon said.

In a corporate blog post last week, Anthropic revealed that the company has not shared its latest AI model, Claude Mythos 5.1, with security bodies outside the United States. Those bodies include the U.K.’s AI Security Institute (AISI), widely considered to be a world-leading body on testing the risks associated with frontier AI models.

CBS News has asked the AISI for comment on Coxon’s claims following his resignation.

“The AI Security Institute continues to collaborate closely with industry partners, including Anthropic, to make models safer,” a spokesperson for the British government’s Cabinet Office told CBS News on Wednesday, noting that it had tested “only last week” OpenAI’s “most powerful model GPT-6 Astra before public release.”

“These risks do not stop at national borders and no country can tackle them alone. The U.K. will continue to test the most advanced models, build a rigorous scientific understanding of their capabilities and risks, and ensure policy decisions are grounded in the evidence,” the spokesperson said.

“Very useful or very dangerous”

The notion that frontier AI models could potentially pose a threat to humanity is not new, and many top executives within both OpenAI and Anthropic have stated as much in the past.

Earlier this month, OpenAI’s chief scientist Jakub Pachocki wrote that we are living through a time that “calls for extreme caution.”

“The intelligence produced by scaling deep learning is not directly comparable to human intelligence. To become very relevant in the real world — very useful or very dangerous — the AI does not need to match or exceed all human capabilities; it just needs to surpass enough of them. And as it continues to surpass humans on more and more axes, it is becoming increasingly difficult to understand exactly how capable it is,” he warned.

In July, an artificial intelligence model being tested by OpenAI went rogue and hacked another AI company, Hugging Face, on its own. OpenAI publicly revealed the hack at the time, saying it took place while the company was testing two AI models — one of which hadn’t been released to the public — in an isolated environment to assess their capabilities.

In the space of a few weeks, Anthropic and Meta also acknowledged that their own AI tools had carried out hacks.

More than 1,300 staffers at AI companies signed an open letter in July calling on the U.S. government to “support an international effort to develop the technical and governance tools needed to deliberately pace the frontier of automated AI development.”

A bipartisan bill currently advancing in the U.S. House of Representatives, the AI Kill Switch Act,would give Congress the authority to switch off AI models that threaten the public.

The legislation was introduced in July, following OpenAI’s admission of the Hugging Face hack.

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