2026年9月3日 美国东部时间12:38 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
记者：艾米丽·梅·查霍尔 新闻编辑
艾米丽·梅·查霍尔是CBSNews.com的记者兼新闻编辑，通常报道突发新闻、极端天气与气候相关内容。她此前曾为《洛杉矶时报》、BuzzFeed和《新闻周刊》等媒体撰稿。
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随着目前日益强劲的厄尔尼诺现象预计在未来数月显著增强，这场“超大规模”气候事件可能会对全球极端天气产生远超常规的影响，加剧高温、干旱和洪水等各类极端灾害，联合国于周四发出警告。
“厄尔尼诺正在我们眼前变得超大规模，”联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯在一份声明中表示，“科学证据不容置疑：地球正处于未知水域，而这片水域正在升温。”
古特雷斯的此番表态是针对世界气象组织周四发布的最新预测展望，该预测评估了当前厄尔尼诺现象的强度和持续时长。作为联合国下属的全球天气与气候专业机构，世界气象组织在最新更新中指出，厄尔尼诺现象预计将持续增强，并最终在今年年底前后达到“极强”级别。
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动循环，简称ENSO，是由热带太平洋部分区域的海表温度和大气状况决定的气候模式，会影响全球各地的天气。厄尔尼诺现象与该区域异常偏高的海洋温度相伴出现，通常还会给全球其他地区——哪怕是数千英里之外的地方——带来高温、干旱和洪涝灾害。
世界气象组织秘书长塞莱斯特·萨洛（左）和气候预测部门主管威尔弗兰·穆富马-奥基亚于2026年9月3日在日内瓦出席厄尔尼诺主题新闻发布会。法布里斯·科弗里尼 / 法新社 via 盖蒂图片社
当厄尔尼诺本身强度较高时，其影响可能会被放大，甚至造成灾难性后果。但据联合国称，今年这一现象的发展背景是此前从未明确观测到的情况。在厄尔尼诺现象出现之前，海洋就已经异常温暖，这意味着此次厄尔尼诺-南方涛动循环将在比往常更高的基准温度下持续演变。
预报人员表示，今年夏季，热带太平洋这一关键区域的海洋温度持续上升，较“正常”温度高出1.5至2.6摄氏度。
“我们已经目睹了干旱和洪水带来的破坏与灾难，我们预计随着厄尔尼诺现象增强，这些情况还会恶化，”世界气象组织负责人塞莱斯特·萨洛说道。
尽管全球不同地区受到的影响程度各不相同，但气象学家警告称，直接影响很可能是全球几乎所有地表区域的气温都将高于正常水平。降雨模式也会因地区而异，部分地区将遭遇过量降雨和洪涝，而另一些地区则会经历干旱。
世界气象组织的最新预测显示，厄尔尼诺现象持续至2027年初的可能性接近100%，这是该机构此前针对任何厄尔尼诺-南方涛动事件都未曾达到的确定性水平。此次厄尔尼诺现象预计将在2026年底达到峰值。
为帮助各社区为未来数月可能出现的情况做好准备，世界卫生组织已与各国气象机构发起一项合作运动，旨在随着天气威胁加剧，改进预报和早期预警系统。
“Supersized” El Niño’s harshest weather still ahead, including extreme heat, drought, floods, U.N. warns
September 3, 2026 12:38 PM EDT / CBS News
By Emily Mae Czachor News Editor
Emily Mae Czachor is a reporter and news editor at CBSNews.com. She typically covers breaking news, extreme weather and climate. Emily Mae previously wrote for outlets like the Los Angeles Times, BuzzFeed and Newsweek.
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With the burgeoning El Niño now forecast to intensify significantly in the coming months, the “supersized” climate event will likely have an outsized impact on severe weather around the world, fueling heat, drought and flooding, among other extremes, the United Nations warned Thursday.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement. “The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.”
Guterres was responding to an updated forecast outlook by the World Meteorological Organization released Thursday, which predicted the current El Niño’s strength and lifespan. The organization, an agency within the U.N. focused on global weather and climate, said in the update that El Niño is expected to continue deepening and eventually become “very strong” near the end of the year.
El Niño Southern Oscillation Cycle, or ENSO, is a climate pattern dictated by sea surface and atmospheric conditions in a section of the tropical Pacific Ocean that influences weather all over the world. El Niño coincides with unusually high ocean temperatures in that region. It also typically brings heat, drought and flooding to other parts of the planet, even places thousands of miles away.
World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo (left) and chief of climate prediction section Wilfran Moufouma-Okia attend a press conference on El Niño in Geneva on Sept. 3, 2026. Fabrice COFFRINI /AFP via Getty Images
Those effects can be amplified, potentially disastrously, when El Niño itself is strong. But, this year, the phenomenon seems to be progressing under circumstances not clearly observed before, according to the United Nations. Oceans have already been exceedingly warm, even without the advent of El Niño, which means this side of the ENSO cycle is going to keep unfolding from a baseline point that is hotter than usual.
Ocean temperatures ticked upward this summer in that important section of the tropical Pacific, rising from an average of 1.5 to 2.6 degrees Celsius above “normal” temperatures, forecasters said.
“We are already seeing the disruption and devastation caused by droughts and floods, and we expect these to worsen as El Niño intensifies,” said Celeste Saulo, who heads the World Meteorological Organization.
Although the impacts will be felt to varying degrees in different parts of the world, meteorologists have warned the immediate implications will likely be above-normal temperatures spread across almost the entire Earth’s surface. Rainfall patterns will also change depending on location, with some places due to experience excessive rain and flooding while others experience drought.
The latest forecast from the meteorological organization placed the likelihood of El Niño persisting through early 2027 at nearly 100%, which is a level of certainty the agency hasn’t had before for any ENSO event. It’s due to peak as 2026 comes to a close.
To help prepare communities for what may arise in the coming months, the World Health Organization has launched a campaign with national weather agencies that aims to improve forecasts and early warning systems as weather threats grow.
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