2026-09-01 06:00 EDT / 福克斯新闻网
特朗普将伊朗称为“失败国家”，新一轮打击引发疑问：德黑兰是否正在丧失仅剩的影响力
作者：埃弗拉特·拉赫特 福克斯新闻网
发布于2026年9月1日 上午6:00 EDT
美伊紧张局势升级，伊朗经济“濒临崩溃”
美国国防民主基金会高级研究员米亚德·马莱基告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，日益加重的经济压力可能会推动伊朗升级行动，以迫使华盛顿回到谈判桌。图片来源：路透社/盖蒂图片社
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美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周一将伊朗称为“失败国家”，称该国在经济和军事上已陷入瘫痪，而美国与伊朗之间的新一轮冲突引发了人们的疑问：德黑兰目前还剩下多少影响力。
“伊朗正式成为失败国家。它完蛋了！”特朗普周一上午在Truth Social上写道。“他们没有海军，没有空军，没有货币，连士兵和警察的工资都发不出来。”
特朗普还声称伊朗的通货膨胀率已达到300%，并表示该国领导层“完全混乱，无法 properly代表国家”。
伊朗正面临来自几乎所有方向的压力——美国新一轮军事打击、更严格的制裁以及石油出口的大幅下滑——这让人们再次质疑德黑兰还能承受多久的经济痛苦，同时仍能维持对华盛顿的影响力。
伊朗政权会崩溃吗？专家评估贝森特切断伊朗金融生命线的举措
2026年8月10日，伊朗阿巴斯港近海的霍尔木兹海峡内停泊的船只。（阿里·赛义迪/盖蒂图片社）
路透社援引伊朗官方数据显示，7月份伊朗年度通货膨胀率为66%，而国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测2026年伊朗消费者价格平均通胀率将达到68.9%。
特朗普发布上述帖文之际，正值美伊军事对峙几周来最紧张的时刻。据一名美国官员透露，周日美国军方袭击了拉尔岛的两处伊朗发射装置，此前有迹象显示伊斯兰革命卫队部队正准备向霍尔木兹海峡发射带有水雷的火箭弹。伊朗随后向美国在约旦的军事基地发射弹道导弹作为报复，约旦方面表示其防空系统拦截了进入其领空的8枚导弹。
此次新一轮对抗发生之际，华盛顿正在加大经济施压力度。
美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周日告诉路透社，美国政府预计将每周推出额外的次级制裁措施，最初将针对银行，可能会将继续协助伊朗进行交易的金融机构排除在以美元为基础的金融体系之外。
美国的“极限施压”运动正暴露伊朗最致命的弱点
2012年10月31日，一名伊朗海军特种部队成员（代号塔卡瓦兰）在红海苏丹港停靠的伊朗“哈尔克”号补给舰附近站岗。苏丹军方表示，两艘伊朗海军舰艇访问苏丹反映了两国之间的紧密联系，此前喀土穆曾否认伊朗参与武器制造。（阿什拉夫·沙兹利/法新社通过盖蒂图片社）
伊朗本国领导人也承认经济压力日益加剧。
据路透社8月29日报道，伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基安表示，由于美国的制裁和海上封锁，伊朗的进出口额下降了近35%，而7月份年度通货膨胀率达到了66%。IMF预测伊朗经济今年将收缩5.4%。
美国国防民主基金会高级研究员米亚德·马莱基此前曾担任美国财政部外国资产控制办公室全球目标办公室副主任，他告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，伊朗伊斯兰共和国可能正接近经济崩溃的临界点。美国国防民主基金会表示，马莱基此前协助监督美国制裁计划，曾担任伊朗和中东地区的首席及高级制裁协调员。
“我认为我们如今所处的形势非常明确——我们看到了非常清晰的迹象，表明我所说的经济已濒临崩溃，即便还没有完全崩溃，”马莱基说道。
马莱基认为，关键的压力点在于伊朗将石油出口转化为可用收入的能力。
美国在全面打击伊朗石油的行动中瞄准中国炼油厂，制裁“影子舰队”油轮
2026年3月11日星期三，从阿联酋豪尔费坎拍摄的霍尔木兹海峡内排队的油轮和货船。（阿尔塔夫·卡德里/美联社照片）
他估计德黑兰每天需要大约100万桶石油出口才能维持自身运转，需要约150万桶才能避免恶性通货膨胀，需要约200万桶才能支撑经济发展。马莱基表示，伊朗的出口额已大幅下降，德黑兰越来越难以将其售出石油的收益汇回国内。
路透社援引Kpler的数据显示，中国从伊朗进口的原油已从2025年的日均140万桶，降至8月份目前的临时日均53.4万桶。
马莱基表示，德黑兰正日益依赖印钞，而非削减政治敏感的薪资和养老金。但这一做法存在极限。
“他们可以继续印钞，但无法印刷他们所需的各类商品，比如汽油、小麦，”他说道。
然而，这种压力可能会造成危险的悖论。
分析师警告：美国收紧经济遏制，伊朗可能发动“武力”回应
via Reuters)
2026年4月28日，伊朗女性在德黑兰当地市场购物。（马吉德·阿斯加里普尔/西亚新闻社通过路透社）
以色列国家安全研究所研究员、大西洋理事会斯考克罗夫特中东安全倡议非常驻高级研究员伊朗问题分析师丹尼·齐特罗诺维奇告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，海上封锁、战争损失和更广泛的经济压力正在损害德黑兰的利益，但他认为华盛顿不应想当然地认为经济困境会导致伊朗屈服。
齐特罗诺维奇表示，如果伊朗领导人认为维持现状比新一轮对抗更糟糕，那么持续的压力反而可能增加德黑兰升级行动的动机。他说，尽管伊朗的导弹生产能力已遭削弱，但德黑兰可能会试图打击“海湾地区的美国经济资产”、港口或参与实施封锁的美国船只。
马莱基同意伊朗可能会试图升级行动，但质疑德黑兰仍拥有多少影响力。
“他们会尝试升级行动，”马莱基说道，并指出了过去24小时内发生的袭击事件。但他认为，进一步升级行动将越来越多地影响伊朗赖以进行贸易、规避制裁和开展外交的海湾国家——可能会带来更大的经济和外交压力。
特朗普誓言“零泄漏”，但封锁下仍有数百万桶伊朗石油无法运出
2026年8月25日，人们在德黑兰北部历史悠久的塔杰里什巴扎尔采购农产品。（法新社通过盖蒂图片社）
当被问及伊朗是否正在丧失影响力时，马莱基回应道：“绝对是的。”
他认为，伊朗因国内动荡和外部战争而实力被削弱，在国内和国际上越来越孤立。
马莱基接下来关注的不一定是政府拖欠工资，而是可能引发新一轮国内动荡的物资短缺。
“我正在关注的是汽油等物资的短缺，”马莱基说道。“目前他们在伊朗国内面临的战争，对政权的挑战比他们面临的外部势力要严峻得多。”
周一，霍尔木兹海峡的商业航运仍严重中断，布伦特原油价格上涨逾2%，升至90美元以上，市场对美伊新一轮对峙作出了反应。路透社8月31日报道称，海湾地区的石油运输已从战时低点恢复，但仍低于战前水平。
马莱基表示，他预计伊朗民众会再次走上街头，并主张西方政府现在就应该做好准备，帮助伊朗民众在德黑兰再次切断互联网接入时进行沟通和组织活动。
“我们需要做的是遏制这个政权，切断其经济生命线，赋予伊朗民众权力，做好准备，下次伊朗民众再次走上街头时，采取行动阻止这个政权屠杀伊朗人，”马莱基说道。
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1月8日开始的伊朗互联网断网，每小时造成156万美元的损失，期间正值抗议活动。（玛丽亚/中东图片社/法新社通过盖蒂图片社）
“这些都是正确的政策——加大施压，准备好在伊朗政权每次升级行动时予以反击，”他补充道。“目前，他们正处于1979年以来最弱的状态。每次他们试图升级行动，他们就会变得更弱。”
路透社对本文亦有贡献。
埃弗拉特（艾菲）·拉赫特是福克斯新闻数字频道的记者，拥有超过15年的冲突、全球事务、人权和政治问责报道经验。她曾执导并制作了200多段纪录片片段，足迹遍布40多个国家，记录冲突、人道主义危机、腐败、人口贩运、基于性别的暴力以及重大世界事件背后的人文故事。
拉赫特的报道带她进入了中东、欧洲、亚洲和非洲的冲突地带和危机区域。她的报道包括揭露人口贩运网络、披露叙利亚境内的ISIS地下酷刑监狱、记录乌克兰战争以及采访高级政治人物和世界领导人。她也是战争开始后进入俄罗斯的西方记者之一，带回了普京反对派的证词。拉赫特曾获得2022年佩雷斯和平中心奖，是2023-2024年密歇根大学奈特-华莱士新闻奖学金获得者。她还曾两次获得洛克沃尔卓越报道奖。她拥有传播学学士学位和政治学硕士学位。
Trump says Iran is ‘DEAD’ — experts point to the real sign Tehran is nearing the brink
2026-09-01 06:00 EDT / Fox News
Trump declares Iran a ‘Failed Nation’ as renewed strikes raise questions over whether Tehran is losing its remaining leverage
By Efrat Lachter Fox News
Published September 1, 2026 6:00am EDT
Iran economy ‘on the verge of collapse’ as tensions with US escalate
Miad Maleki, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, tells Fox News Digital that mounting economic pressure could push Iran to escalate in an effort to force Washington back to the negotiating table. Photos credit: Reuters/Getty
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President Donald Trump declared Iran a “Failed Nation” Monday, claiming the country is economically and militarily broken as renewed fighting with the U.S. raises questions about how much leverage Tehran still has left.
“Iran is officially a Failed Nation. IT IS DEAD!” Trump wrote on Truth Social Monday morning. “They have no Navy, they have no Air Force, they have no currency, they are not paying their soldiers or police.”
Trump also claimed Iranian inflation had reached 300% and said the country’s leadership was “in total disarray and incapable of properly representing the country.”
Iran is facing pressure from nearly every direction — renewed U.S. military strikes, tighter sanctions and a steep drop in oil exports — raising fresh questions about how long Tehran can keep absorbing the economic pain and still maintain leverage against Washington.
COULD IRAN’S REGIME COLLAPSE? EXPERTS ASSESS BESSENT’S BID TO SEVER FINANCIAL LIFELINES
Ships are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz on August 10, 2026, off the coast of Bandar Abbas, Iran.(Ali Saeedi/Getty Images)
Official Iranian data cited by Reuters put annual inflation at 66% in July, while the IMF projects average consumer-price inflation of 68.9% in 2026.
Trump’s post came amid the sharpest U.S.-Iran military escalation in weeks. U.S. forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island Sunday after Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces were observed preparing to launch rockets with sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz, according to a U.S. official. Iran retaliated by launching ballistic missiles toward U.S. bases in Jordan, while Jordan said it intercepted eight missiles that entered its airspace.
The renewed confrontation comes as Washington ratchets up economic pressure.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters Sunday that the administration expects to roll out additional secondary sanctions as frequently as every week, initially focusing on banks and potentially cutting financial institutions that continue facilitating Iranian transactions out of the U.S. dollar-based financial system.
IRAN’S DEEPEST WEAKNESS IS GETTING EXPOSED THROUGH AMERICA’S MAXIMUM PRESSURE CAMPAIGN
An Iranian navy special forces service member, known as Takavaran, stands guard near the Iranian Kharg replenishment ship docked in the Red Sea Sudanese town of Port Sudan on Oct. 31, 2012. The visit of two Iranian naval ships to Sudan reflects strong ties between the countries, Sudan’s military said after Khartoum denied Iranian involvement in weapons manufacturing.(Ashraf Shazly/AFP via Getty Images)
Iran’s own leaders are acknowledging growing economic strain.
President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran’s exports and imports have fallen nearly 35% because of U.S. sanctions and the naval blockade, while annual inflation reached 66% in July, Reuters reported Aug. 29. The IMF projects Iran’s economy will contract 5.4% this year.
Miad Maleki, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies who previously served as associate director of Treasury’s Office of Global Targeting at the Office of Foreign Assets Control, told Fox News Digital that the Islamic Republic may be nearing an economic breaking point. FDD says Maleki previously helped oversee U.S. sanctions programs and served as chief and senior sanctions coordinator for Iran and the Middle East.
“I think where we stand today, it’s very clear — we see very clear signs, indications of what I would call an economy that is on the verge of collapse, if it hasn’t already collapsed yet,” Maleki said.
Maleki argued that the critical pressure point is Iran’s ability to turn oil exports into usable revenue.
US TARGETS CHINESE REFINERY IN SWEEPING IRAN OIL CRACKDOWN, SANCTIONS ‘SHADOW FLEET’ TANKERS
Oil tankers and cargo ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates, Wednesday, March 11, 2026.(Altaf Qadri/AP Photo)
He estimates Tehran needs roughly 1 million barrels of oil exports per day to sustain itself, about 1.5 million to avoid hyperinflation and approximately 2 million to support development. Maleki said Iranian exports have fallen dramatically and Tehran is increasingly struggling to repatriate revenue from the oil it can sell.
Kpler data cited by Reuters showed Chinese imports of Iranian crude falling from an average 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 to a provisional 534,000 barrels per day so far in August.
Maleki said Tehran is increasingly relying on money creation rather than cutting politically sensitive salaries and pensions. But there are limits.
“They can keep printing money, but they can’t really print the type of commodities that they need, such as gasoline, such as wheat,” he said.
The pressure, however, may create a dangerous paradox.
IRAN COULD UNLEASH ‘KINETIC’ RESPONSE AS US TIGHTENS ECONOMIC CONTAINMENT, ANALYST WARNS
An Iranian woman shops in a local market in Tehran, Iran, April 28, 2026.(Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters)
Iran analyst Danny Citrinowicz, a fellow at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, told Fox News Digital that the maritime blockade, wartime losses and wider economic pressure are hurting Tehran, but argued Washington should not assume economic pain will lead to capitulation.
Citrinowicz said continued pressure could instead increase Tehran’s incentive to escalate if Iranian leaders conclude the status quo is worse than renewed confrontation. He said Iran could attempt to target “U.S. economic assets in the Gulf,” ports or U.S. vessels involved in enforcing the blockade, even as its missile-production capabilities have been degraded.
Maleki agreed Iran would likely attempt to escalate, but questioned how much leverage Tehran still possesses.
“They’re going to try to escalate,” Maleki said, pointing to the attacks of the last 24 hours. But he argued that further escalation would increasingly affect Gulf states Iran has relied upon for trade, sanctions evasion and diplomacy — potentially bringing even greater economic and diplomatic pressure.
MILLIONS OF BARRELS OF IRANIAN OIL SIT BEYOND TRUMP BLOCKADE AS HE VOWS ‘ZERO LEAKAGE’
People shop for produce at the historic Tajrish bazaar in northern Tehran on Aug. 25, 2026.(AFP via Getty Images)
Asked whether Iran was losing its leverage, Maleki responded: “Absolutely.”
He argued Tehran has emerged weakened from internal unrest and the external war and is increasingly isolated domestically and internationally.
What Maleki is watching next is not necessarily missed government payrolls, but shortages that could trigger another wave of domestic unrest.
“What I’m looking for is shortages of items such as gasoline,” Maleki said. “Right now they’re fighting a war inside Iran that is way more challenging to the regime than it is from external forces that they’re facing.”
Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely disrupted Monday, while Brent crude climbed more than 2% to above $90 as markets reacted to the renewed U.S.-Iran exchanges. Reuters reported Aug. 31 that Gulf oil flows have recovered from their wartime lows but remain below pre-war levels.
Maleki said he expects Iranians to return to the streets and argued Western governments should prepare now to help them communicate and organize if Tehran again shuts down internet access.
“What we need to do is to contain this regime, cut off this economic lifeline, empower the Iranian people, be prepared next time Iranians are back on the street [and] take actions to stop this regime from slaughtering Iranians,” Maleki said.
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The Iranian internet blackout started Jan.8 and cost $1.56 million per hour amid protests.(Maria / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)
“Those are the right policies — put the pressure on, be prepared to push back on the Iranian regime every time it escalates,” he added. “At this point, they are the weakest they’ve been since 1979. Every time they try to escalate, they become weaker.”
Reuters contributed to this story.
Efrat (Effie) Lachter is a reporter for Fox News Digital with more than 15 years of experience covering conflict, global affairs, human rights and political accountability.She has directed and produced more than 200 documentary segments across more than 40 countries, documenting conflicts, humanitarian crises, corruption, human trafficking, gender-based violence and the human stories behind major world events.
Lachter’s reporting has taken her into conflict zones and crisis areas across the Middle East, Europe, Asia and Africa. Her work has included uncovering human trafficking networks, revealing an ISIS underground torture prison in Syria, documenting the war in Ukraine and interviewing senior political figures and world leaders. She was also among the Western journalists who entered Russia after the war began to bring testimonies from Putin’s opposition. Lachter is the recipient of the 2022 Peres Center for Peace Award and was a 2023–2024 Knight-Wallace Journalism Fellow at the University of Michigan. She also won two Rockower Awards for Excellence in Reporting. She holds a bachelor’s degree in communication and a master’s degree in political science.
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