2026年8月31日 上午10:05 UTC / 路透社
作者：道格拉斯·吉利森
2026年4月22日拍摄的示意图中出现了Polymarket标志。路透社/达多·鲁维奇/示意图
- Polymarket情报负责人称，系统已阻止绝大多数美国用户访问该国际平台
- 议员们警告称，事件合约可能助长内幕交易并削弱选举信心
- 公司计划就监管预测市场的举措提升透明度
华盛顿8月31日电（路透社）——预测市场平台Polymarket新任全球调查与情报负责人对路透社表示，随着临近的美国中期选举对该行业的监管机制构成考验，该公司已做好充分准备，对平台上的交易进行监管。
前Coinbase（COIN.O）分析师、联邦调查局调查员莎娜·鲍蒂斯塔表示，Polymarket还在按照2022年与美国监管机构达成的执法和解协议要求，阻止美国用户访问其国际平台。
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“我有信心能够获得所需的资源和支持，”鲍蒂斯塔在6月加入Polymarket后首次接受路透社采访时表示。“我可以告诉你，我们已经部署了相关系统，能够在中期选举来临之际识别异常交易活动。”
美国议员正对Polymarket施压，他们担忧快速发展的预测市场正在为内幕交易创造新渠道，并可能威胁国家安全和选举公正性——包括削弱选民对候选人及选举官员的信任，或对选举结果产生质疑等诸多风险。与此同时，多个州正提起诉讼，要求将该行业逐出体育博彩领域。
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Polymarket的国际平台通过区块链进行交易结算，这意味着赌注记录是公开的，尽管交易者身份仍属匿名。批评人士称，这为违规行为提供了温床。但鲍蒂斯塔表示，Polymarket的区块链仍能提供有关交易者活动的极具价值的信息。
这家成立于2020年的公司表示，一直在加强监管措施，并计划就其如何监管赌注提供更高透明度。一位发言人透露，公司即将推出一个新网页，解释其如何保护市场诚信以及如何与执法部门合作。
鲍蒂斯塔表示，该网页将详细说明Polymarket如何利用机器学习、区块链分析、交易监控、开源研究以及第三方机构来发现并阻止恶意交易活动。
“市场诚信项目本身并非新事物，但我们现在要公开的是其运作方式的大量细节，”她说。
blob:https://www.reuters.com/51963ad6-269e-4c7e-b8e1-8e9045927e31
该公司表示，已向执法部门移交了百余起案件。鲍蒂斯塔称，其中包括一个被检察官指控利用机密信息押注抓捕委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的美军士兵所使用的钱包，以及本月早些时候路透社报道过的多起针对美国在伊朗军事行动的疑似内幕押注。
美国商品期货交易委员会2022年对Polymarket处以罚款，原因是该公司未在该机构注册，并要求其禁止美国用户使用平台，但分析师称有证据显示美国用户仍在该平台交易。鲍蒂斯塔表示，她认为公司的系统足以阻止绝大多数美国用户。
“要持续、始终规避我们设置的所有监管屏障，在规模层面上是困难的，”鲍蒂斯塔说。“我不认为这会成为一个普遍存在的严重问题。”
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在支持预测市场的特朗普政府时期，联邦监管机构终止了对Polymarket是否违反和解协议的调查。当时该公司首席执行官谢恩·科普兰表示，公司已被证明没有不当行为。
Polymarket去年通过收购一家美国注册交易所重新进入美国市场。
道格拉斯·吉利森华盛顿报道；米歇尔·普莱斯与尼克·齐明斯基编辑
我们的准则：汤森路透信任原则。
Polymarket stands ready to fight misconduct as US midterms loom, intel chief says
August 31, 2026 10:05 AM UTC / Reuters
By Douglas Gillison
Polymarket logo appears in this illustration taken April 22, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
- Polymarket intelligence chief says systems block vast majority of US users from international platform
- Lawmakers warn event contracts could enable insider trading and erode election confidence
- Company aims to offer more transparency on efforts to police prediction markets
WASHINGTON, Aug 31 (Reuters) – Prediction market company Polymarket is fully prepared to police trading on its platform as the approaching U.S. midterm elections test the industry’s controls, the company’s new global head of investigations and intelligence told Reuters.
Polymarket is also working to keep U.S. users off its international platform, as required by an enforcement settlement it reached with U.S. regulators in 2022, said Shana Bautista, a former Coinbase (COIN.O) analyst and FBI investigator.
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“I’m confident that I’m able to get the resources and the support I need,” Bautista told Reuters in her first interview since joining Polymarket in June. “I can tell you that we have the systems in place to be able to identify anomalous activity when the midterms do come.”
Polymarket is under pressure from U.S. lawmakers worried fast-growing prediction markets are creating new avenues for insider trading and may threaten national security and election integrity — by undermining confidence in candidates and election officials or casting doubt on race results, among other possibilities. Many states are meanwhile suing to kick the industry out of sports betting.
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Polymarket’s international platform settles trades on a blockchain, meaning wagers are public, although traders remain anonymous. Critics say that’s a recipe for misconduct. Bautista said Polymarket’s blockchain nevertheless provides highly valuable information about trader activity.
The company, which was founded in 2020, says it has been beefing up controls and plans to provide more transparency around how it polices wagers. It is launching a new web page explaining how it protects market integrity and cooperates with law enforcement, a spokesperson said.
Bautista said the web page will outline how Polymarket uses machine learning, blockchain analytics, trade surveillance, open source research and third-parties to spot and stop malicious activity.
“The market integrity program itself is not new, but what we’re putting on the record now is considerably more detail about how it operates,” she said.
blob:https://www.reuters.com/51963ad6-269e-4c7e-b8e1-8e9045927e31
The company says it has referred more than a hundred cases to law enforcement. Bautista said those include a wallet used by a U.S. soldier who prosecutors say used classified information to bet on the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, and many possible insider bets on U.S. military actions in Iran that Reuters reported earlier this month.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022 fined Polymarket for failing to register with the agency and required it to bar U.S. users, but analysts say there is evidence that U.S. users continue to trade on the platform. Bautista said she believes the company’s systems are sufficient to block the vast majority of U.S. users.
“It is difficult at scale to be able to consistently and always evade all of the guardrails we have,” said Bautista. “I do not see it being a really prevalent issue.”
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Under President Trump’s administration, which has embraced prediction markets, federal regulators dropped a probe into whether Polymarket had breached the settlement. CEO Shayne Coplan said at the time that the company had been cleared of wrongdoing.
Polymarket re-entered the U.S. by acquiring a U.S.-registered exchange last year.
Reporting by Douglas Gillison in Washington; editing by Michelle Price and Nick Zieminski
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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