2026年选举的末日式最后时刻猜想

Last-minute doomsday scenarios for the 2026 election

2026-08-30T10:30:30.305Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/30/politics/trump-midterms-election-fraud

Imaginations run wild at what President Donald Trump and his allies might yet do to interfere in the coming midterm election. He’s already done quite a bit.

This is the man who alleged widespread voter fraud even in the two elections he won and who tried to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election he still won’t admit he lost. There’s no evidence of any such fraud.

Asked in recent months about some more extreme possible actions he could take in November or after, Trump has stayed coy while leaving ample room to stoke conspiracy theories, even as his top aides have continued to raise unsubstantiated concerns about voting machines and noncitizens voting.

Some of these extreme possible measures — which have been the subject of either speculation or direct lobbying by Trump allies — include seizing ballot boxes, declaring a national election emergency, or deploying troops or ICE agents to polling places. When Trump in July gave an address to the nation on election integrity, he did not promise to do any of these things. But speculation has persisted, particularly on the political left as it tries to get out the vote in November.

“Trump is throwing stuff out there. People are biting on it, and it makes the country as a whole more nervous, and is a self-perpetuating cycle,” said Ben Ginsberg, a longtime Republican election lawyer.

But he also said the country — and election workers — needs to be ready for the unexpected.

“Because the rhetoric is there and (Trump) has shown a singular ability for asymmetrical warfare starting on January 6. If you’re an election official, you have to be preparing,” he said. But that preparation must come, Ginsberg said, with the knowledge that “the creation of a climate of fear is maybe a goal in and of itself.”

When a reporter asked in February, Trump seemed surprised and said he didn’t know anything about a push by election deniers for him to declare a national election emergency and seize broad and unprecedented control over how states run elections.

But this month, when the idea was explained to him by conservative commentator Wayne Root, Trump didn’t reject it, but also didn’t endorse it.

“Let me just say that stranger things have happened, OK? I’ll leave it at that,” Trump said.

The idea for declaring a national emergency dates back to Trump’s first term, although it was never employed. More recently, as the Washington Post first reported, supporters have been pushing an executive order, written last spring, that would declare a national emergency to enact new federal powers over elections. The draft EO claims meddling by China justifies the president seizing control over elections from states — even though US intelligence suggests Iran and Russia have more actively tried to meddle in US elections. Trump never signed the order.

Shortly after those first reports, in March, Trump did sign a different executive action that sought to put new limits on mail-in voting and to direct the Postal Service against the use of mail-in ballots. That order is still the subject of multiple lawsuits and seems unlikely to be implemented before November.

Allies like podcaster and former Trump aide Steve Bannon are still pushing for a national emergency declaration soon because it could, they say, unlock power for Trump to do some of what’s listed below, such as dispatching federal agents to polling places or seizing ballots or voting machines to guard against supposed Chinese interference.

Opponents like Norm Eisen, cofounder of Democracy Defenders Action, a group that has repeatedly sued the Trump administration on a variety of issues, said US elections have taken place during wars and pandemics without national security declarations and lawyers are standing by to challenge Trump if he tries to declare one in the coming weeks.

“There’s no power to declare emergency relating to our elections to seize ballots or do anything else. Courts are going to slap it down. We’re ready to go fast,” Eisen told reporters Thursday.

The argument from Trump allies and those worried about election integrity is that agents could be used to deter undocumented immigrants from casting ballots. It is already illegal for noncitizens to vote or register to vote, and there are protections in every state to make sure each vote corresponds to a voter registration and for votes cast provisionally to be verified.

A Republican candidate for governor in Maine has promised to request ICE agents at polling stations. Elections are run by state and local governments, so it is their job to provide security.

Laws vary from state to state, but it is illegal under federal law for anyone – including law enforcement – to intimidate voters. The law also prohibits “troops or armed men” from polling places unless they are repelling enemies of the US.

Bannon has also pushed for ICE agents at polls. CNN’s Gabe Cohen unpacked all of this back in March.

Top Trump aides have repeatedly declined to say that ICE agents will not be sent to polling places, but they have also not outlined plans to send them.

Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin gave a somewhat convoluted answer to CNN’s Kasie Hunt back in June when she asked if the administration would dispatch ICE agents to polling places.

He said agents would not go on their own to verify the immigration status of voters, but rather to help local law enforcement respond to things like bomb threats.

“We wouldn’t show up on our own,” he said. “We would be getting asked to show up, but not for immigration purposes.”

In the meantime, however, Mullin has been tasked by Trump with rooting out instances of noncitizens on state voter rolls, a process which has so far yielded few federal charges and far less evidence of potential illegal voter registrations than initially suggested by Mullin. CNN’s Gabe Cohen has pored over the data. In Nevada, a state of more than 3 million people, DHS teased that more than 15,000 ineligible noncitizen voter registrations were discovered, but, according to communications reviewed by CNN, only “confirmed” 185, and didn’t give Nevada officials enough data to follow up, according to the state’s election leaders. A recent release claiming tens of thousands of noncitizen voters were found using Census data was equally vague and impossible to verify. Experts quoted in CNN’s report called the use of Census data a “hijack by the White House.”

He regrets not doing it before.

When the New York Times asked in January if he considered ordering the National Guard to seize ballot boxes in 2020, Trump said, “Well, I should have,” before qualifying that he doesn’t think Guardsmen are “sophisticated enough” to do that particular job.

It’s worth noting here that the administration has this year seized ballots and machines related to the 2020 election, although that’s years after the fact. Trump was once the subject of criminal cases related to his efforts to overturn election results in Georgia in 2020. Those cases essentially went away after he was reelected in 2024, but the administration has tried to flip the script. Trump’s previous director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, was present when federal agents seized 2020 ballots in Fulton County, which includes Atlanta, in the swing state of Georgia. CNN recently reported the FBI has detailed 260 staff members to a resulting investigation, although no charges have been filed and no specific evidence of wrongdoing has been provided to dispute the results of the election Trump lost, which was the subject of multiple recounts, and which was overseen by Republican officials in Georgia.

Any effort to seize ballots or machines after the coming election — before the outcome was known, contested or litigated — would be the subject of immediate court action. Courts have so far rejected Trump’s efforts, across multiple elections, to dispute results. That doesn’t mean the administration will not use its power to suggest there are issues in elections where it disagrees with the outcome. The question will be whether the system can withstand those inquiries.

Democrats have flagged that a longstanding Justice Department memo dating back to 2017 that made it US government policy not to seek election materials until after an election had been settled was removed from the agency’s website. In any event, Trump’s DOJ can be expected to put a much more circumspect eye on elections in places where Trump does not like the outcome.

It seems far too late to attempt decertifying voting machines before November’s elections.

Doing anything this close to an election would sow major chaos; voting machines are utilized in the vast majority of the nation’s more than 95,000 voting locations. This year they will be essential to count potentially 150 million or more votes. Republican election officials are among those who will generally tell you most Americans already use a paper ballot and the voting machines are more accurate at counting them than humans.

Conspiracy theories about voting machines have persisted for years, but they have had consequences. Fox News agreed to a $787 million settlement for a defamation lawsuit for lies it spread after the 2020 election about Dominion Voting Systems, then the largest manufacturer of voting machines used in the US. Dominion’s products are still prevalent in US elections, but the company was bought in 2025 by a former Republican election official from Missouri and rebranded as Liberty Vote. The new owner, Scott Leiendecker, acknowledges that Trump lost the 2020 election.

But voting machines have been a major issue for Trump – and questioning them has long been high on his list of complaints about the US system.

After he lost the 2020 election, Trump was presented with a plan dreamed up by supporters outside the White House, according to The New York Times, to seize voting machines in key states where his supporters alleged there was fraud. No compelling evidence of fraud was ever produced, and courts rejected challenges to the election results.

Trump was told by officials at the Department of Justice and the Department of Homeland Security in 2020 that he lacked the authority to seize machines without probable cause.

Election deniers are in some key roles at the White House and the Department of Homeland Security during Trump’s second term. And top leaders have been more pliant to his whims, which opens the possibility of more active federal oversight in areas where Trump does not like election results. But the results of an election would have to be known before Trump could dispute them. The machines have a paper trail and can be audited. Those facts would not change. Plus, there would be lawsuits if the administration tried to take machines.

The DNI under Gabbard examined voting machines in Puerto Rico for vulnerabilities in 2025, although the government has not found any evidence that voting machines were compromised. CNN’s Sean Lyngaas reported this month about backlash and an alleged smear campaign against the small cybersecurity firm tapped to investigate the machines when it found no evidence of fraud.

Reuters reported last year that Kurt Olsen, a spreader of election conspiracy theories who works in the White House, had pushed the idea of a nationwide ban on voting machines produced by Dominion Voting Systems. The plan went nowhere, but is indicative of how the administration views voting machines. DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin has suggested that because three companies that produce voting machines utilize some parts made in China, the machines cannot be trusted.

Mullin has also proposed holding federal security aid states rely on unless they hand count a certain percentage of ballots.

It would be difficult since states certify their own election results.

Trump has a history of trying to stand in the way of certification of results he disagrees with and there are election deniers in some key posts around the country. Every election is subject to real-time observation by representatives from both political parties. There have been periodic concerns raised that partisan election watchers could seek to disrupt elections, although that has not occurred in a way that has affected how people vote.

But if an election board or election officials refused to certify election results, it would be the subject of lawsuits and both state and federal courts have historically shown little interest in letting challenges linger.

Tammy Patrick is a former Maricopa County, Arizona, election official who now oversees election programs at the Bipartisan Policy Center. She said there is a multilayered system that makes sure US elections go smoothly and are certified.

“So far, the checks and balances of our system have held,” Patrick said. There are horizontal checks, she said, where Republicans and Democrats observe what’s happening in real time and after the election. There are also vertical checks, where state officials check the work of local election workers and election boards.

There is a fringe theory — Jeffrey Toobin laid out the fever dream in the New York Times — that House Republicans could refuse to seat new Democratic members of Congress. It would be an unpopular redux of January 6, 2021, to say the least, and run afoul of the 20th Amendment. Relying on some parliamentary trickery and the complacency of the unelected official known as the clerk of the House, it would rely on Trump declaring there had been rampant fraud after the election in a Hail Mary attempt at blocking the new Democrats from being seated. Widespread outrage, including from many Republicans, could be expected. It seems too far-fetched to focus on at the moment.

Patrick said election workers game out potential scenarios before Election Day.

“Election officials are planners,” she said. “They have tried to think through ‘What would happen if __?’ and then fill in the blank.”

One thing they have encountered increasingly in recent elections is bomb threats or the discovery of suspicious substances.

Bomb threats mailed in from addresses with Russian email domains, for instances, were sent to multiple polling locations in key states in 2024. Although none of those threats disrupted voting at the time, she said local officials will be expecting more of that type of shenanigans.

For all the conjecture about what might happen, it’s worth noting that the White House and Republicans have already undertaken an unprecedented effort to sway the election in their favor.

With singular focus in his second term, Trump has already tried to use the power of his presidency, and his influence both in congress and over his allies in states to alter how, when and in what districts Americans will vote this year.

That influence campaign is at odds with the Constitution, which leaves the “times, places and manner” of holding elections to the states. And results so far have been mixed.

The GOP clearly won the first round of a redistricting war Trump started in Texas and which spread to other states. The redrawing of congressional maps this cycle could net Republicans up to 10 new seats, if voters do as map-drawers predicted, before votes are cast in November. That effort got an assist from the Supreme Court’s gutting of protections for minority voters in the Voting Rights Act, which means the war will continue into future elections as a lasting effect of Trump on US democracy.

His calls for a new proof-of-citizenship law don’t even have the votes needed to get a simple majority in the GOP-controlled US Senate.

Courts, so far, have stood in the way of his efforts to use executive power to target mail-in voting, particularly in blue states, but court cases continue.

While the Supreme Court did not immediately dismiss his effort to use the USPS to make states jump through hoops for mail-in voting, it’s not clear that effort will come to pass for the midterms in November. The first mail-in ballots will be sent to voters in North Carolina in early September. Each state has different rules and policies for mail-in ballots (and their elections in general).

Trump has also tried to use the power of the federal government against states. His DHS has demanded state voter rolls, something even some red states have fought.

They’ve also hobbled and sidelined the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, CISA, which is charged with coordinating responses to foreign election interference at the same time intelligence suggests foreign governments have tried to meddle in US elections.

That’s what has already happened. There is plenty of fear about other things Trump might do — and what his allies have encouraged him to do — that’s giving election-watchers heartburn even as they project confidence in an American election system that is decentralized, complicated, which makes it impossible to rig.