2026-08-26T12:47:52.631Z / 路透社
- 月度PCE指数6月环比下降0.1%后，7月环比上涨0.2%
- 年度PCE通胀率意外持稳
- 报告发布后，联邦基金期货市场暗示9月加息概率为42%
- 第二季度消费者支出增长率从初值3.2%上调至3.4%
8月26日（路透社）——美国年度通胀率7月意外持稳，仍远高于美联储2%的目标，这已是连续第65个月通胀高于该目标。近期战争推高通胀见顶后，通胀回落出现停滞，这可能会加剧美联储围绕是否应加息或维持利率不变的辩论。
美国商务部经济分析局周三表示，截至7月的12个月里，个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）上涨3.7%，与6月持平。接受路透社调查的经济学家此前预测美联储参考的PCE通胀率为3.6%。
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7月环比通胀率同样高于预期，达到0.2%，而6月该数据曾下降0.1%，为2020年4月以来最弱表现。经济学家此前预测环比涨幅为0.1%。
剔除能源和食品价格后的核心PCE——美联储官员用以衡量通胀潜在运行速率的关键指标——年度同比维持在3.3%不变，环比则从6月的0.1%升至0.2%。
高于预期的整体通胀数据小幅提升了市场对美联储最快下月加息的预期。报告发布后，联邦基金期货市场显示，美联储在9月15至16日的会议上加息的概率约为42%，而报告发布前这一概率约为36%。
“这份数据支持加息，”咨询公司Inflation Insights的创始人兼总裁奥迈尔·沙里夫说道，“未四舍五入的核心PCE环比涨幅为0.246%，只差一点就能进位到0.3%。按此计算，该指标的年化单月涨幅接近3.0%。”
战争与关税拖累通胀前景
今年2月下旬，唐纳德·特朗普总统与以色列一道对伊朗发动空袭，导致全球约五分之一的石油供应中断，能源价格飙升，年度PCE通胀率在5月快速攀升至4.1%的三年高点。
六个月后，这场冲突似乎仍未接近最终解决，尽管交火已有所减少，油价及其引发的整体通胀浪潮已从中春高点回落。
过去两个月通胀放缓，帮助支撑了美联储政策委员会多数委员的论点。他们上月投票决定将美联储基准基准利率维持在3.50%至3.75%的区间，该区间自去年12月以来一直未变。但通胀改善的缓慢步伐不太可能安抚越来越多的少数派美联储官员，他们认为需要采取更紧缩的政策。鉴于自2021年2月以来通胀一直高于目标，且若不进一步收紧政策，通胀将无法降至2%的水平。
按PCE计算的通胀率在2022年6月达到7.2%的峰值，美联储自上世纪80年代以来最激进的加息举措帮助通胀重回2%的轨道。但去年特朗普重返白宫后推出一系列进口关税，推高了各类商品价格，扰乱了这一趋势，伊朗冲突进一步加剧了这些通胀压力。
新的关税压力可能即将到来。美国与其第二大贸易伙伴加拿大的贸易谈判上周五破裂，对200亿美元加拿大进口商品征收新关税的措施即将生效。此后，华盛顿和渥太华各自宣布了将于未来数月生效的额外报复性措施，除非达成协议避免这些措施实施。
经济分析局周三还更新了第二季度经济增长数据，将年化国内生产总值增长率的预估维持在1.5%不变。与首次预估相比， notable的调整之一是将4月至6月期间的消费者支出增长率从初值3.2%上调至3.4%，这表明支撑美国三分之二经济活动的个人消费在今年上半年保持强劲。
丹·伯恩斯、迈克尔·S·德比和安·萨菲尔报道；奇祖·野宫和保罗·西马奥编辑
本报守则：路透社信托原则。
US inflation remains sticky in July; second-quarter GDP growth unrevised at 1.5%
2026-08-26T12:47:52.631Z / Reuters
- Monthly PCE rises 0.2% in July after 0.1% decline in June
- Annual PCE inflation unexpectedly held steady
- Fed funds futures imply 42% chance of September rate hike after report
- Second-quarter consumer spending growth is revised up to 3.4% from 3.2%
Aug 26 (Reuters) – Annual U.S. inflation unexpectedly held steady in July well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for the 65th straight month, and the pause in the decline from a recent war-induced peak is likely to intensify the central bank’s debate over whether interest rates should be lifted or held steady.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index increased 3.7% in the 12 months through July, unchanged from June, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a reading for PCE, which the Fed uses to set its target, of 3.6%.
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The month-over-month figure also came in higher than expected at 0.2% in July after falling 0.1% in June, which had been the weakest reading since April 2020. Economists had forecast a 0.1% increase.
Excluding energy and food prices, so-called core PCE — which Fed officials use as a guidepost for inflation’s underlying run rate — held steady at 3.3% on the year while rising to 0.2% on the month from 0.1% in June.
The above-forecast headline print gave a modest lift to expectations that the Fed may raise interest rates as soon as next month. Fed funds futures prices reflected about a 42% probability of a rate hike at the central bank’s September 15-16 meeting after the report, versus about 36% immediately before.
“This is data that supports a hike,” said Omair Sharif, founder and president of forecasting firm Inflation Insights. “The unrounded core PCE was 0.246%, so it barely missed out on rounding to 0.3%. That is a one-month annualized rate (of) nearly 3.0%.”
WAR AND TARIFFS CLOUD INFLATION OUTLOOK
Annual PCE shot to a three-year high of 4.1% in May in rapid fashion after President Donald Trump launched air strikes along with Israel against Iran in late February, sending energy prices spiraling upward as the conflict shut in roughly a fifth of global oil supplies.
Six months later the conflict appears no closer to a final resolution, though the exchange of fire has diminished and oil prices and the wider inflation wave they instigated have retreated from their mid-spring highs.
The slowdown in inflation in the last two months has helped buoy the arguments of the majority of Fed policy committee members who voted last month to leave the central bank’s benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, where it has been since December. But the sluggish pace of improvement is unlikely to mollify a growing minority of Fed officials who argue tighter policy is needed, given that inflation has been above target since February 2021 and will not get to the 2% level without further restraint.
Inflation as measured by PCE peaked at 7.2% in June 2022, and the steepest Fed rate increases since the 1980s helped put it on a path back toward 2%. That trajectory changed last year after Trump unleashed a wave of import tariffs upon his return to the White House, sending a wide range of goods prices higher, with the Iran war exacerbating those pressures.
And new tariff-induced pressures are likely coming, after trade negotiations between the U.S. and its second-largest trading partner, Canada, fell apart on Friday, resulting in new levies on $20 billion of Canadian imports to go into effect. Since then, Washington and Ottawa have each announced additional retaliatory measures to go into effect in coming months unless a deal is reached to avert them.
The BEA on Wednesday also updated data for economic growth for the second quarter, leaving unchanged its estimate of annualized gross domestic product growth at 1.5%. Among the notable changes from the first estimate was an upward revision to consumer spending during the April-through-June period to 3.4% from the originally reported 3.2%, an indication that the individual consumption that supports two-thirds of U.S. economic activity had held up through the first half of the year.
Reporting by Dan Burns, Michael S. Derby and Ann Saphir; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Paul Simao
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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