2026-08-20T16:42:56.080Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
阿拉斯加本周二举行的初选，为2026年中期选举带来了不同寻常的景象：一场关键参议院席位的角逐中，两名最终将在11月对决的候选人已经提前确定了对阵资格。
这是因为该州采用了全党派初选制度和排名选择投票制。此外，本次选举没有其他实力强劲的竞争者。
对于民主党来说，这次选举结果应该相当鼓舞人心。
在约80%的选票已被清点的情况下，民主党前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉以48.1%的得票率领先共和党现任参议员丹·沙利文的42.7%。剩余选票被两党其他几名陪跑候选人瓜分，他们需要跻身前四才能进入11月的大选。
考虑到剩余待清点的选票大多为提前投票，而佩尔托拉迄今为止在提前投票中表现出色，她的领先优势可能会进一步扩大，甚至有可能接近50%。
因此，我们眼下看到的情况是，现任参议员在首轮投票中以较大劣势落后。
这并不意味着沙利利一定会在11月输掉选举，届时的选民构成将有所不同。但这对于共和党来说相当不吉利——而阿拉斯加正是决定民主党参议院多数党席位的关键州之一。
几点关键信息：
- 民主党似乎在初选中获得了多数选票。目前有49.8%的选民将票投给了民主党候选人，共和党得票率落后数个百分点。（再次强调，还有五分之一的选票尚未清点，这一差距可能进一步扩大。）
- 另一位名为丹·沙利文的候选人——共和党曾试图将其从选票上除名，称其意图分流本党选民的支持——看起来将跻身最终四强。他目前以2.4%的得票率位居第三。
- 这位无党派候选人丹·沙利文在民主党倾向的选区表现似乎也更好。这可能表明，支持他晋级的民主党倾向选民实际上最终会把票投给佩尔托拉，而非现任参议员丹·沙利文。
当然，初选结果并不具备预测性。
例如，佩尔托拉在2024年众议院席位初选中实际获得了51%的选票，但仍在11月的激烈角逐中落败。
但在其他年份，包括2022年上一次中期选举，民主党在选举日的得票率实际上高于初选阶段。四年前，该州美国众议院初选中共和党得票率为61.1%，民主党仅为36.8%，但佩尔托拉最终还是赢得了选举。
其中部分原因可能在于她的最终对手是极具争议的前共和党州长萨拉·佩林。但从民主党一方更高的投票热情来看，2026年中期选举的选民环境似乎比2024年总统选举更有利于民主党。
2026年初选的投票率也很高，这表明本次大选的选民构成将比2024年更接近中期选举的选民结构。
本次初选最终计票总数预计将达到约16万张。这大约相当于2022年上一次中期选举投票数的60%。相比之下，2024年美国众议院初选的约11万张选票仅占最终总统选举33万张选票的33%左右。
换句话说，11月大选的选民群体与本周二初选的选民群体之间的差距，可能比两年前佩尔托拉在大选中流失支持时的差距要小。
最后一点，沙利文目前不到43%的得票率着实令人失望。
毕竟，他是现任参议员，就像2024年的佩尔托拉一样。但超过57%的选民将票投给了其他候选人。
如果初选阶段支持其他候选人的选民至少在排名选择投票中将沙利文排在佩尔托拉之前，他或许能够挽回部分选票。但对于现任议员来说，这个得票率过低了。
此外，本次参议院选举中共和党候选人的总得票率目前约为45.7%，低于该州众议院初选（49%）和州长初选（51%）的得票率。这表明佩尔托拉吸引了原本倾向共和党的选民。
仍有大量工作有待完成，包括清点剩余选票。民主党人也不应过早庆祝。
但这些数据之所以令人鼓舞，一个重要原因在于，阿拉斯加正是决定民主党能否赢得参议院多数党席位的关键州之一。民主党需要拿下至少两个2024年总统选举中唐纳德·特朗普以两位数优势获胜的州，最有可能的候选州是阿拉斯加、艾奥瓦、俄亥俄和得克萨斯。
到目前为止，民调显示这是有可能实现的，这四个州的选情都相当胶着。但在实际投票开始前，一切都未可知。
本周二的选举本质上就是一场真实的投票测试，结果对民主党来说相当不错。
Alaska was a trial run for Democrats’ Senate majority hopes. How did it go?
2026-08-20T16:42:56.080Z / CNN
The Alaska primary on Tuesday presented us with something unusual ahead of the 2026 midterm elections: An actual matchup between the two candidates who will face off in November in a key Senate race.
That’s because the state uses an all-party primary system and ranked-choice voting. Also, there were no other serious contenders.
The results should be pretty encouraging for Democrats.
With about 80% of votes counted, Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, 48.1% to 42.7%. The rest of the vote was split up between also-ran candidates from both parties trying to make the general election by finishing in the top four.
And given most of the votes left to count are advance ballots, which Peltola has done well with so far, she could expand her advantage further, possibly approaching 50%.
So what we appear to have here is an incumbent senator losing pretty handily in the first round of voting.
That doesn’t mean Sullivan will lose in November, when the electorate will be different. But it’s pretty inauspicious for Republicans – and in a very important state for Democrats’ Senate majority math.
A few key points:
- It appears Democrats might have received a majority of votes in the primary. Currently, 49.8% voted for a Democrat, with the Republican vote share trailing a few points behind. (And again, that gap could widen with 1 in 5 votes still not counted.)
- It looks as though the other Dan Sullivan – the one Republicans fought to keep off the ballot by claiming he intended to steal votes from the GOP senator – will make the final four. He’s in third place at 2.4%.
- The other Dan Sullivan (who didn’t have a party affiliation on the ballot) also seemed to do better in Democratic-leaning precincts. That might suggest he actually got support from Democratic-leaning voters who wanted him to advance – but who will ultimately vote for Peltola rather than Sen. Dan Sullivan.
Primaries aren’t predictive, of course.
For example, Peltola actually got 51% in the 2024 primary for her House seat but still lost a close race in November.
But in other years, including the last midterm election in 2022, Democrats actually wound up having a higher share of voters on Election Day than they did in the primary. Four years ago, Republican votes outpaced Democratic ones in the state’s US House primary 61.1%-36.8%, but Peltola went on to win anyway.
Some of that was likely because her final opponent was the polarizing former GOP Gov. Sarah Palin. But the 2026 midterm electorate is looking like it will be more favorable to Democrats than the 2024 presidential electorate was, judging by higher enthusiasm on the Democratic side.
Turnout in the 2026 primary was also high, which suggests an electorate that will be closer to the general election electorate than 2024 was.
There will likely be around 160,000 votes in this year’s primary when they’re all counted. That amounts to about 60% of the votes cast in the last midterm election, in 2022. By contrast, the approximately 110,000 votes cast in the 2024 US House primary was only about 33% of the 330,000 ballots that were ultimately cast in the presidential election.
In other words, there’s likely to be less of a difference between November’s electorate and the one we saw Tuesday than there was two years ago, when Peltola lost ground in the general election.
And the final point is that Sullivan’s current sub-43% showing is just kind of underwhelming.
He is, after all, the incumbent – just like Peltola was in 2024. But more than 57% of voters turned out to vote for someone else.
He could recoup some of those votes thanks to the state’s ranked-choice system, if voters who supported other candidates in the primary at least rank him ahead of Peltola. But that’s low for an incumbent.
And the percentage of voters that voted for a candidate listed as a Republican in the Senate race – around 45.7% right now – is less than in the state’s US House primary (49%) and the gubernatorial primary (51%). That suggests Peltola picked off voters who were otherwise inclined towards Republicans.
There is still much to play out, including the counting of the remaining votes. And Democrats shouldn’t be celebrating just yet.
But a big reason these numbers are encouraging is that this is exactly the kind of state that will decide whether Democrats could win a Senate majority. The need to win at least two states that President Donald Trump carried by double-digits in 2024, with the likeliest candidates being Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.
So far, the polling has suggested that’s a possibility, with all four states looking pretty competitive. But you never know until the votes were actually cast.
Tuesday was basically a poll featuring actual votes being cast, and it went well for the blue side.
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