2026-08-19T18:04:30.599Z / 路透社
2026年7月29日，美国华盛顿美联储，美国联邦储备委员会主席凯文·沃什在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）为期两天的会议结束后举行新闻发布会，当日美联储维持利率不变。路透社/伊夫林·霍克斯坦/档案照片
- 内容摘要
- 美联储在7月28日至29日的会议上将政策利率维持在3.50%-3.75%区间不变
- 会议纪要显示，“多位”官员认为如果通胀未能回落，将有必要加息
- 本次会议是沃什担任美联储主席以来的第二次会议
华盛顿，8月19日（路透社）——周三公布的会议纪要显示，美联储上月的会议上对通胀的担忧进一步加深，“数位”政策制定者准备加息，“多位”官员表示，如果通胀未能降至美国央行设定的2%目标，将有必要上调借贷成本。
7月28日至29日的会议纪要称，支持在本次会议上加息的政策制定者“指出物价压力似乎广泛存在，并认为（政策制定）委员会应采取更严格的政策立场，以兑现其持续实现物价稳定和最大化就业目标的承诺”。他们辩称，如果不这样做，将面临“后续阶段加息幅度更大、潜在代价更高的风险”。
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美联储在本次会议上投票决定将基准利率维持在当前3.50%-3.75%的区间内，但有三位政策制定者持反对意见，支持加息25个基点。
纪要显示，更多的“多位”与会者“评估认为，如果通胀未能回落，可能有必要收紧政策”。
本次会议纪要涵盖了美联储主席凯文·沃什担任央行行长以来的第二次会议，显示央行官员们已经开始深入探讨沃什希望推进的一些更广泛的议题，这些议题可能涉及美联储运作方式的全面改革。
与会者认为，即将开展的关于美联储如何管理资产负债表的工作组审查是“一次全面讨论的机会”，不过“多位”与会者在会上“重申，调整货币政策立场的主要手段应通过调整联邦基金利率目标区间，而非操纵美联储的资产持有规模”。
沃什还就“美联储是否最好将每年的会议次数从当前的8次缩减至6次”征求了委员会的意见，此举可让每次会议前有整整两个月的数据积累。纪要称，该问题尚未做出任何决定，2026年的会议日程不会调整。
金融市场对本次会议纪要反应平淡。周三早些时候公布的美国财政部将回购长期美国国债的规模翻倍的消息，缓解了收益率上行压力，推动股市在周二暴跌后回升。
利率期货市场仍在定价，认为美联储在10月27日至28日的会议上开始加息的概率高于五成；即便届时不加息，年底12月的最后一次会议上加息的概率也极高。
政策辩论转向
纪要中未提及任何支持降息的意见，这表明美联储的政策辩论在过去一年中发生了转变——年初时市场预期随着通胀放缓，央行将在今年下调借贷成本。
然而，物价压力持续上升，尤其是在特朗普政府与以色列一道对伊朗开战之后。冲突爆发近六个月来，战略要地霍尔木兹海峡的油气运输仍受到限制。
近期数据显示通胀略有缓解，且企业在7月意外裁员，因此市场预计美联储将在9月15日至16日的会议上再次维持政策利率不变。这些数据使得官员们仍在争论是否需要进一步加息以抑制通胀，但同时也对劳动力市场的强劲程度以及实现充分就业目标的风险持更为谨慎的态度。
沃什在任期间一直不愿谈论货币政策路径。
霍华德·施奈德报道；保罗·西马奥和千住野村编辑
Fed policymakers’ inflation concerns increased at July meeting, minutes show
2026-08-19T18:04:30.599Z / Reuters
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as the Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, at the Federal Reserve, in Washington, D.C., U.S. July 29, 2026. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein/File Photo
- Summary
- Fed kept policy rate unchanged in 3.50%-3.75% range at July 28-29 meeting
- Minutes of meeting show ‘many’ felt a rate hike would be needed if inflation did not decline
- Meeting was Warsh’s second as head of the Fed
WASHINGTON, Aug 19 (Reuters) – Concern about inflation deepened at the Federal Reserve’s meeting last month, with “several” policymakers ready to raise interest rates and “many” saying a hike in borrowing costs would be needed if inflation does not decline to the U.S. central bank’s 2% target, the minutes of the session showed on Wednesday.
The policymakers who favored a rate increase at the meeting “remarked that price pressures appeared broad-based and judged that the (policy-setting) Committee should adopt a more restrictive policy stance to meet its commitment to achieving its price-stability and maximum employment goals on a sustained basis,” the minutes of the July 28-29 meeting said. Failure to do so, they argued, would risk “a steeper and potentially more costly sequence of tightening moves at a later stage.”
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The Fed voted at that meeting to hold its benchmark interest rate in the current 3.50%-3.75% range, but with three policymakers dissenting in favor of a quarter-percentage point hike.
A larger group of “many” participants “assessed that policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline,” the minutes said.
The minutes, covering Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s second meeting as head of the central bank, showed central bankers already delving into some of the broader issues he wants to pursue as part of a possible overhaul of how the Fed operates.
Participants saw an upcoming task force review of how the Fed manages its balance sheet as an “opportunity for a comprehensive discussion,” though “many” participants at the meeting “reaffirmed that the primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy should be through changes in the target range for the federal funds rate,” not manipulating the Fed’s asset holdings.
Warsh also asked for “input from the Committee” on whether it would be better for the Fed to hold only six meetings a year rather than the current eight, allowing for a full two months of data to accumulate each time. No decisions were made regarding this issue, the minutes said, and the 2026 schedule of meetings would not be altered.
The minutes drew little reaction in financial markets. An announcement earlier on Wednesday that the Treasury would double its buyback of longer-term U.S. government debt had eased upward pressure on yields and helped lift stocks after Tuesday’s rout.
Rate-futures markets continued to price better-than-even odds that the Fed will begin raising rates at its October 27-28 meeting and, failing that, a very high probability of a rate hike at its last meeting of the year in December.
POLICY DEBATE SHIFT
There was no mention in the minutes of support for a rate cut, a sign of how the Fed’s policy debate has shifted over the course of a year that began with an expectation that the central bank would be able to lower borrowing costs this year as inflation slowed.
Price pressures, however, have continued to build, particularly after the Trump administration joined Israel in a war with Iran. Shipments of oil and gas through the strategic Strait of Hormuz continue to be constrained almost six months after the start of the conflict.
The Fed is expected to hold its policy rate steady again at its September 15-16 meeting after recent data showed inflation easing slightly and firms unexpectedly shedding jobs in July. The data has left officials still divided over whether rate hikes will be needed to slow inflation further, but also more cautious about the strength of the labor market and the risks to their goal of maintaining full employment.
Warsh has been reluctant to talk about the path of monetary policy on his watch.
Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao and Chizu Nomiyama
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