2026年8月18日 美国东部时间下午3:19 / 哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）新闻
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梅根·塞鲁洛 记者，MoneyWatch频道
梅根·塞鲁洛是驻纽约的CBS MoneyWatch记者，报道小企业、职场、医疗保健、消费支出和个人理财话题。她定期做客CBS新闻24小时频道解读相关报道。
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美国劳动者的薪资再次跟不上通胀——这是疫情时期令人痛苦的金融旧事重演。
根据最新经济研究，由于许多劳动者仍在从2021至2022年的通胀冲击中恢复，此番通胀重现的处境可能更加艰难。当时企业给劳动者的加薪幅度有限，未能赶上四十年来最高的物价涨幅。
芝加哥大学和ADP研究人员的论文显示，2021年2月至2022年6月期间，实际工资——即普通美国人薪资的购买力——下降了逾4%。
这次冲击对许多人造成了长期影响。分析发现，研究人员考察的薪资记录中，37%的劳动者在2024年12月的经通胀调整后收入低于四年前。这些损失从未得到弥补，如今许多美国人正再次经历类似的趋势。
伊朗战争推高了石油和汽油价格，重新推高了通胀，推动7月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比涨幅达到3.4%。这超过了同期劳动者时薪3.2%的增幅，导致劳动者实际工资下降。
该论文的合著者、芝加哥大学布斯商学院劳动经济学家埃里克·赫斯特告诉CBS新闻，疫情时期高通胀的“漫长阴影”仍笼罩着劳动者。
“早在今年年初伊朗战争引发通胀压力之前，劳动者在负担能力方面就已经捉襟见肘了，”该论文的合著者、芝加哥大学布斯商学院劳动经济学家埃里克·赫斯特告诉CBS新闻。
低迷的消费者信心
研究人员利用ADP覆盖1600万劳动者的月度薪资数据，分析企业制定薪资和加薪的模式。他们发现，大多数企业将年度加薪与通用标准挂钩，在高通胀时期仅做出小幅调整。
研究显示，这种不将加薪与通胀挂钩的做法导致了实际工资损失。疫情前，劳动者通常获得约2%至4%的加薪，但当2021年6月通胀达到9.1%的40年峰值时，企业仍坚持常规加薪幅度。分析称，许多劳动者因此陷入财务困境。
赫斯特表示，大多数企业都有薪资增长“标准”，包括他本人在内的劳动者通常每年获得相对标准的3%加薪。
“我在芝加哥拿到的就是这个涨幅，在通胀率为2%时这很合理，因为我们能获得1%的实际工资增长，”他说。“但当通胀率超过3%时，实际工资就开始缩水了。”
赫斯特称，本轮直接由油价上涨推动的通胀正在加剧消费者信心下滑，因为劳动者能明显感受到自己的财务状况正在恶化。根据密歇根大学的数据，8月消费者信心指数下降了约8%，逆转了此前两个月的回升势头。
“实际工资低迷时，幸福感就会降低，因为购买力下降了，”赫斯特说。“尽管失业率很低、就业岗位相对充足，但消费者信心依然低迷。”
通胀转移效应
如果企业在通胀率为4%时给劳动者加薪3%，实际上就相当于减薪1%。
这种现象形成了“通胀转移效应”，实际上将物价上涨的负担从企业转移到了劳动者身上。
举例来说，假设一名劳动者的生产率在一年内没有下降1%，但实际工资却同样下降了1%，那么企业就能从同等生产率中获益，同时支付的工资却降低了1%。
“实际工资低迷和企业利润高企并非毫无关联，”赫斯特说。
跳槽与薪资
报告显示，避免实际工资缩水的一种方式是换工作。研究发现，跳槽者的薪资涨幅几乎与通胀持平。但赫斯特指出，跳槽本身也需要付出代价。
“跳槽的劳动者确实能跟上通胀步伐，这很不错，但跳槽并非没有成本，”赫斯特说。“你需要付出精力找工作、搬家、调整工作流程。劳动者为跟上通胀而采取的一些行动本身就需要付出高昂代价。”
艾米·皮奇 编辑
Pandemic-era inflation left millions of workers with a lasting pay cut. Now it’s happening again
August 18, 2026 3:19 PM EDT / CBS News
By
Megan Cerullo Reporter, MoneyWatch
Megan Cerullo is a New York-based reporter for CBS MoneyWatch covering small business, workplace, health care, consumer spending and personal finance topics. She regularly appears on CBS News 24/7 to discuss her reporting.
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American workers’ wages are once again failing to keep up with inflation — a painful financial déjà vu of the pandemic years.
The repeat situation may feel even more acute given that many workers are still catching up from the 2021-2022 inflationary bout, when companies gave workers only moderate pay raises that fell short of four-decade high price increases, according to new economic research.
From February 2021 to June 2022, real wages — or the purchasing power of the average American’s paycheck — fell by more than 4%, according to the paper from the University of Chicago and ADP researchers.
That hit proved lasting for many, with the analysis finding that 37% of workers whose payroll records researchers examined earned less in inflation-adjusted terms in December 2024 than they had four years earlier. Those losses were never made up, and now many Americans are re-experiencing a similar trend.
The Iran war has reignited inflation by raising oil and gasoline prices, which pushed the Consumer Price Index to an annual pace of 3.4% in July. That outpaced the 3.2% increase in workers’ hourly wages over the same period, leading to a decline in workers’ real wages.
The “long shadow” of the pandemic’s high inflation is still hanging over workers, University of Chicago Booth School of Business professor Erik Hurst, a labor economist and co-author of the paper, told CBS News.
“Workers were already behind the eight ball in terms of affordability, even going into inflationary pressures that started earlier this year from the war in Iran,” University of Chicago Booth School of Business professor Erik Hurst, a labor economist and co-author of the paper, told CBS News.
Gloomy consumer sentiment
Researchers used monthly payroll data from ADP covering 16 million workers to analyze firms’ practices in setting wages and raises. They found that most firms peg annual raises to a common norm, making only modest adjustments during periods of high inflation.
That failure to peg pay raises to inflation caused real wage losses, the research found. Before the pandemic, workers were typically given pay increases of about 2% to 4%, but when inflation hit a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2021, companies stuck with their regular pay hikes. Many workers lost financial ground as a result, according to the analysis.
Hurst said most companies have wage growth “norms” whereby workers, including himself, receive a relatively standard 3% wage increase each year.
“That’s what I got at Chicago, which works well when inflation is at 2%, because it gives us 1% real wage growth,” he said. “But when inflation exceeds 3%, then real wages start to erode.”
The latest bout of inflation, driven directly by oil price increases, is contributing to diminished consumer sentiment because workers can see they are losing ground financially, according to Hurst. In August, consumer sentiment dipped about 8%, reversing two months of improvement, according to the University of Michigan.
“When real wages are low, well-being is low because purchasing power has gone down,” Hurst said. “Consumer sentiment is low, despite unemployment being low and employment being relatively high.”
Inflation transfer
If a company gives a worker a 3% pay adjustment when inflation is at 4%, that effectively amounts to a 1% pay cut.
This dynamic creates an “inflation transfer,” effectively shifting the burden of higher prices from corporations to workers.
For example, assuming a worker’s productivity does not drop by 1% over one year, but their real wages fall by the same amount, a company benefits from that same productivity but is paying wages that are 1% lower.
“Real wages are low and firm profits are high, and they are not unrelated to each other,” Hurst said.
Job hopping and wages
One way to avoid real wage erosion is to switch jobs, according to the report, which found that job changers’ wages rose nearly in line with inflation. But that comes with its own costs, according to Hurst.
“People who switch jobs tend to keep up with inflation, which is great, but switching jobs is not free,” Hurst said. “You have to expend effort to look for a job, move your family and change your workflow. Some actions workers take to keep up with inflation are themselves inherently costly.”
Edited by Aimee Picchi
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