2026-08-18T09:00:54-04:00 / 福克斯新闻
三分之二的美国年轻人和71%的西班牙裔选民不支持特朗普，但黑人选民尚未完全回归支持民主党
——雷米·努马 福克斯新闻
发布于 2026年8月18日 美国东部时间上午9:00 | 更新于 2026年8月18日 美国东部时间上午9:03
参议院之争升温，得克萨斯州、密歇根州成摇摆州
福克斯新闻撰稿人卡尔·罗夫加入《美国新闻室》节目，讨论选民 demographics 的变化以及民主社会主义候选人对参议院选举的影响。
特朗普总统重返白宫，部分得益于三个传统民主党票仓群体支持率的上升：西班牙裔选民（41%支持特朗普，较2020年提升6个百分点）、年轻选民（46%，提升10个百分点）以及黑人选民（15%，提升7个百分点）。
目前没有太多迹象表明民主党已经找到重新争取这些选民的方法，但对于三个群体中的两个来说，特朗普支持率的下滑已经帮他们完成了这项工作。
在最近的马凯特大学民调中，三分之二的美国年轻人表示不支持特朗普，56%的人表示会支持本选区的民主党候选人。西班牙裔选民也对总统不满：71%的人不认可他的执政表现，56%的人表示今年11月会支持民主党人。
黑人选民尚未完全回归民主党阵营。五分之一的美国黑人认可特朗普的表现，但仅有69%的人表示会支持本选区的民主党候选人。这一比例较拜登2020年获得的黑人选民支持率低21个百分点，当时拜登曾感谢这些选民助他赢得大选。
DSA形象受审，埃尔赛伊在民主党最输不起的选区遭遇困境
福克斯新闻权力排名：黑人选民民调预测（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
三个摇摆州的民主党候选人也面临黑人选民支持率下滑的问题，但他们找到了遏制损失的方法。在佐治亚州，参议员乔恩·奥索夫的黑人选民支持率较拜登2020年的支持率低10个百分点。在北卡罗来纳州，这一差距为7个百分点。在得克萨斯州，州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科的黑人选民支持率与同期拜登的支持率基本持平。
福克斯新闻权力排名：黑人选民民调预测（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
密歇根州的情况则不同。根据最新的福克斯新闻民调，75%的黑人选民支持新晋民主党提名候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛伊。这一比例较拜登当年的黑人选民支持率下降了18个百分点。
埃尔赛伊承认全民医保意味着“无论收入高低都要多缴一点税”
福克斯新闻权力排名：黑人选民民调预测（福克斯新闻）
埃尔赛伊的极左翼纲领可能是导致黑人选民持怀疑态度的原因之一。在马凯特大学的民调中，仅有36%的美国黑人对美国民主社会主义者协会（DSA）持正面看法。
（请注意，由于在大多数民调中黑人选民样本量较小，这些结果存在较大误差范围。）
这一点也可以从最近三场民主党初选的投票地图中看出：埃尔赛伊在底特律等黑人占多数的地区表现不佳，而威斯康星州的民主社会主义者弗朗西斯卡·洪在密尔沃基——另一个黑人人口众多的城市——也表现不佳。
纽约市市长佐赫兰·曼达尼是美国民主社会主义者协会的正式成员，去年他在黑人选民中也遭遇了困境。这或许可以解释为何他近期开展了“黑人媒体攻势”，为自己一些颇具争议的主张辩护。
这一攻势可能已经见效：上周发布的锡耶纳民调显示，曼达尼在纽约市民中的支持率达到69%。
福克斯新闻权力排名：曼达尼支持率预测（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
无论如何，极左翼阵营的时间已经不多了。密歇根州将于9月24日开始邮寄投票。在本期福克斯新闻权力排名中，该州的参议院选举被列为摇摆州，另有一个大州也加入了摇摆州行列。三场州长选举的竞争也愈发激烈。
参议院：又有两个州成为摇摆州，两党均有望获得压倒性胜利
Meet the Democrat Who Narrowly Defeated Socialist Rival in Key Swing-State Battle Over the Party’s Future（注：原文为英文标题，按要求保留）
福克斯新闻权力排名：参议院民调预测（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
最新的参议院民调预测显示，有六个州两党均不占优势。这可能会让选举之夜的结果充满变数。其中一种情景是，民主党不仅拿下参议院，最终还能拿到53个席位。另一种情景则是，共和党守住参议院席位，净损失为零。
福克斯新闻权力排名：参议院民调预测（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
共和党拿下密歇根州参议院席位的可能性比一周前有所提升。在上周的福克斯新闻民调中，前众议员迈克·罗杰斯获得了51%的选民支持，埃尔赛伊为47%，差距在误差范围内。
共和党人团结一致支持罗杰斯这位经验丰富的强势候选人。由于有四分之一的黑人选民不支持埃尔赛伊，他的选民联盟并不完整。基本盘仍有利于民主党，但在这场势必会有高投票率的选举中，埃尔赛伊需要动员所有民主党选民投票。目前该选区已成为摇摆州。
福克斯新闻民调：密歇根州参议院之争一触即发
福克斯新闻权力排名：参议院民调预测（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
与此同时，全国性的政治环境并未发生变化。特朗普的整体支持率仍维持在30%出头；他在经济和伊朗问题上的支持率往往更低。汽油价格问题更是难以挽回民心：近期仅有21%的美国人在被问及该问题时表示认可特朗普的表现。
福克斯新闻权力排名：得克萨斯州参议院民调预测（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
这对得克萨斯州联邦参议院民主党候选人塔拉里科来说是利好，他今年夏天的民调表现亮眼。在最近三份民调中，他的平均支持率为48%，在福克斯新闻民调中更是达到51%，而他的对手肯·帕克斯顿的平均支持率为46%。
帕克斯顿一系列法律和个人问题可能是导致其支持率不高的原因，尽管塔拉里科需要为自己“觉醒”言论的历史辩护，但选民似乎并不太在意这些。在这个本就有利于民主党的选举年，这些因素可能会成为胜负关键。得克萨斯州的参议院选举也成为摇摆州。
福克斯新闻权力排名：参议院民调预测（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默上周的言论引发了争议，他称民主党正在将参议院选举地图扩大至堪萨斯州（2024年特朗普支持率+16）和密西西比州（2024年特朗普支持率+23）。
这番言论是在埃尔赛伊赢得密歇根州民主党提名后不久发表的，鉴于部分党内建制派对该胜选结果持反对态度，舒默此举可能只是在为捐赠者提供更多选择。
福克斯新闻权力排名：参议院民调预测（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
不过，如果民主党迎来一场压倒性胜利，堪萨斯州也并非遥不可及。大型教会牧师亚当·汉密尔顿已经是资金充足的民主党挑战者，他将对阵现任共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔。该选区评级从此前的“稳固共和党”调整为“倾向共和党”。
州长：得克萨斯州、阿拉斯加州和明尼苏达州均进入竞争行列
单看民调数据，得克萨斯州州长选举与参议院选举的情况惊人相似。在今年夏天的三份民调中，现任州长格雷格·雅培获得了49%的选民支持，民主党候选人吉娜·希诺霍萨的支持率为46%。
福克斯新闻权力排名：州长选举民调预测（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
但背后还有其他因素。在得克萨斯州，共和党选民投票率高的时候人数远超民主党选民，尽管帕克斯顿似乎并未帮到本党候选人，但雅培的筹款能力和近距选举经验应该能让两位候选人在计票时拉开差距。
福克斯新闻权力排名：得克萨斯州州长选举民调预测（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
尽管共和党仍保持领先，但这场选举显然已具备竞争力。该选区评级从此前的“稳固共和党”调整为“倾向共和党”。
阿拉斯加选民今晚将参加该州的前四初选，这场初选将缩小候选人范围，但不会透露太多更多信息。今年的州长选举有17名候选人，无人是现任官员，但有一位候选人看起来像现任：前民主党议员汤姆·贝吉奇，他有三名亲属曾在美国众议院或参议院任职。
福克斯新闻权力排名：州长选举民调预测（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
这场选举很难预测，但在前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉参选参议院以及贝吉奇出现在选票上的情况下，这场选举势必会充满竞争。该选区评级从此前的“倾向共和党”调整为“略倾向共和党”。
最后，共和党建制派本周在明尼苏达州迎来了好消息：受欢迎的前NFL场边记者米歇尔·塔福亚赢得了该党参议院选举的共和党提名，州众议院议长丽莎·德穆特成为该党州长候选人。
福克斯新闻权力排名：州长选举民调预测（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
德穆特将于11月对阵民主党现任参议员艾米·克罗布查德，这位 formidable 对手曾批评明尼苏达州在政府项目欺诈问题上的处理方式。
但这一问题给了共和党在这个倾向民主党的州难得的机会，凭借这套候选人阵容，共和党很可能会加大在该州的投入。明尼苏达州州长选举的评级从此前的“稳固民主党”调整为“倾向民主党”。
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雷米·努马是福克斯新闻频道首席政治事务专家。你可以在推特上关注他：@remynuma。
Fox News Power Rankings: As Democrats turn left, Black voters tap the brakes
2026-08-18T09:00:54-04:00 / Fox News
Two-thirds of young Americans and 71% of Hispanics disapprove of Trump, but Black voters haven’t fully returned
By Rémy Numa Fox News
Published August 18, 2026 9:00am EDT | Updated August 18, 2026 9:03am EDT
Senate battle heats up amid Texas, Michigan toss-ups
Fox News contributor Karl Rove joins ‘America’s Newsroom’ to discuss shifting voter demographics and the impact of Democratic socialist candidates on Senate races.
President Trump’s return to office was made possible in part because of increasing support from three traditionally Democratic groups: Hispanic voters (41% supported Trump, a 6-point improvement from 2020), young voters (46%, up 10 points) and Black voters (15%, up 7 points).
There isn’t much evidence that Democrats have figured out how to talk to these voters again, but for two of the three groups, Trump’s declining approval rating is doing the job for them.
In a recent Marquette survey, two-thirds of young Americans said they disapproved of Trump, and 56% said they would support the Democratic candidate in their district. Hispanics were also unhappy with the president: 71% disapproved of his performance and 56% said they’ll support a Democrat this November.
Black voters haven’t come all the way home yet. One in five Black Americans approves of Trump, but only 69% say they’ll support a Democrat in their district. That’s 21 points below Biden’s 2020 share of the Black vote, when he thanked those voters for delivering his victory.
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Fox News Power Rankings forecast on Black voters(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Democratic candidates in three battleground states are also staring at Black voter erosion, but they’ve found ways to stem the losses. In Georgia, Sen. Jon Ossoff is running 10 points behind Biden’s 2020 support among Black voters. In North Carolina, it’s 7 points. In Texas, State Rep. James Talarico is running about even with Black voters over that period.
Fox News Power Rankings forecast on Black voters.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
It’s a different story in Michigan. According to a new Fox News poll, 75% of Black voters support newly minted Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed. That’s down 18 points from their support for Biden.
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Fox News Power Rankings Black voters forecast(Fox News)
El-Sayed’s far-left platform is probably playing a role in Black voters’ skepticism. In the Marquette survey, just 36% of Black Americans said they had a favorable view of the Democratic Socialists of America.
(Bear in mind that because Black voters are a small group in most surveys, these results have large margins of error.)
You can also see it in the maps from three recent Democratic primaries: El-Sayed did poorly in Black-majority areas like Detroit, while Wisconsin democratic socialist Francesca Hong underperformed in Milwaukee, another city with a high Black population.
Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a card-carrying member of the DSA, also struggled with Black voters in New York City last year. That might explain why he’s been on a “Black media blitz” to defend some of his most controversial ideas.
It might be working: Mamdani’s favorability among New Yorkers sat at 69% in a Siena poll released last week.
Fox News Power Rankings forecast on Mamdani favorability(Remy Numa/Fox News)
In any case, the clock is ticking for the far-left. Michigan starts absentee voting on September 24. The state’s Senate race moves to toss-up in this edition of the Fox News Power Rankings, along with another big-name state. Three gubernatorial races also just got more competitive.
Senate: Two more states become toss-ups, giving both parties a chance at a landslide
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Fox News Power Rankings Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
The latest Senate forecast includes six states where neither Democrats nor Republicans have an edge. That could make for an extraordinary election night. In one scenario, the Democrats not only flip the Senate, but end up with 53 seats. In another, Republicans hold on to the Senate with no net loss of seats.
Fox News Power Rankings Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
The GOP has a better chance at flipping Michigan than it did a week ago. In last week’s Fox survey, former Rep. Mike Rogers had the support of 51% of voters to El-Sayed’s 47%, within the margin of error.
Republicans are united in their support for Rogers, a strong and seasoned campaigner. With a quarter of Black voters not backing El-Sayed, his coalition isn’t complete. The fundamentals still favor the Democrats, but in what is certain to be a high-turnout election, El-Sayed will need every Democrat to show up. This race is now a toss-up.
FOX NEWS POLL: A SENATE BATTLE LOOMS IN MICHIGAN
Fox News Power Rankings Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
At the same time, the national environment hasn’t changed. Trump’s overall approval rating is stuck in the 30s; his ratings on the economy and Iran are often lower. Gas prices have proven even tougher to sell: only 21% of Americans recently said they approved of Trump when asked specifically about that issue.
Fox News Power Rankings Texas Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
That has benefited Talarico, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Texas, who has enjoyed some robust polling results this summer. He’s averaging 48% in three recent polls, hitting 51% in Fox’s survey, while his opponent, Ken Paxton, averages 46%.
Paxton’s history of legal and personal issues is likely playing a role in that latter figure, and while Talarico must defend a history of “woke” comments, voters say they’re less worried about those. They could make the difference in an election year that’s already favorable to Democrats. Texas is also a toss-up.
Fox News Power Rankings Senate forecast(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer raised some eyebrows last week when he said Democrats were expanding the Senate map to include Kansas (Trump +16 in 2024) and Mississippi (Trump +23).
The comment came shortly after El-Sayed’s victory in Michigan, and with parts of the party establishment balking at that win, Schumer may just be giving donors options.
Fox News Power Rankings Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Still, Kansas wouldn’t be out of reach on an outstanding night for Democrats. Megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton is already a well-funded Democratic challenger; he faces incumbent GOP Sen. Roger Marshall. This race moves to Likely R.
Governor: Texas, Alaska, and Minnesota are all in play
Based on polls alone, Texas’ gubernatorial race looks remarkably similar to the Senate. In the same three polls this summer, incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott has the support of 49% of voters, with Democrat Gina Hinojosa sitting at 46%.
Fox News Power Rankings gubernatorial forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
There’s more to the story than that. When Republican voters show up in Texas, they easily outnumber Democrats, and while Paxton appears not to be helping this ticket, Abbott’s fundraising prowess and experience in close races should keep the candidates apart when the votes are tallied.
Fox News Power Rankings Texas gubernatorial forecast(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Even as Republicans maintain a lead, though, this race is clearly competitive. It moves from Solid R to Likely R.
Alaska voters will head to the polls tonight for their top-four primaries, which will narrow the field but won’t tell us a whole lot more. This year’s gubernatorial election features 17 candidates, none of whom is an incumbent, but one might seem that way: Tom Begich, a former Democratic legislator with three relatives who have served in the U.S. House or Senate.
Fox News Power Rankings gubernatorial forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
It’s a difficult race to predict, but between former Rep. Mary Peltola’s Senate push and Begich’s name on the ballot, it’s going to be competitive. It moves from Likely R to Lean R.
Finally, the Republican establishment had a good week in Minnesota, where popular former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya won the party’s nomination for Senate, and state House Speaker Lisa Demuth became the party’s gubernatorial nominee.
Fox News Power Rankings gubernatorial forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Demuth will face Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar this November, a formidable opponent who has criticized the state’s handling of fraud involving government programs.
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But that issue gives the GOP a rare opening in this blue-leaning state, and with this slate of candidates, the party is likely to invest here. Minnesota’s gubernatorial race moves from Solid D to Likely D.
Rémy Numa is the lead political affairs specialist for Fox News Channel. You can follow him on Twitter: @remynuma.
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