2026-08-18T12:55:20.699Z / 路透社
8月18日（路透社）——美国7月独栋房屋建筑活动大幅下滑至三年半以来最低水平，现房购房签约量也出现下滑，最新迹象表明楼市仍受高抵押贷款利率和伊朗战争带来的经济不确定性影响。
与此同时，制造业仍在借人工智能建设热潮的东风，美联储一项工厂产出指标上月达到四年多来最高水平，背后推动力是高科技设备、工业和建筑用品的生产增长。
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美国商务部人口普查局周二表示，占住宅建筑主体的独栋房屋开工量上月下降9.9%，经季节调整后的年率为80.8万套，为2022年11月以来最低。
7月独栋房屋建筑活动同比下滑15.7%。
未来独栋住宅建设许可——一项预示未来新建筑活动的指标——上月上涨2.5%，至年率89.4万套。7月该许可同比增长1.1%，为过去两年仅有的第二次年度增长，但发放率仍接近三年来最慢水平。
“在抵押贷款利率下降，允许建筑商出售现有完工房屋或在建房屋之前，我们预计建筑商仍会对新项目进行重大投资持犹豫态度，”全国房地产经济学家协会高级经济学家本·艾尔斯表示。
包括公寓等多户住宅建筑在内的整体新屋开工量7月下降12.4%，至123.9万套。接受路透社调查的经济学家此前预估年率为135万套。
住宅建筑许可总发放量上涨5.0%，至年率144.3万套。经济学家此前预估许可发放年率为137万套。
美国全国地产经纪商协会周二报告显示，现房购房签约量——通常在一两个月后完成交易——7月也出现下滑。当月环比下降2.3%，至1月以来最低水平。
住宅房地产市场仍深陷困境，高抵押贷款利率和市场上有限的房屋供应损害了购房负担能力和销售速度。
“今年最高的抵押贷款利率出现在仲夏，这拉低了购房签约量，”全国地产经纪商协会首席经济学家劳伦斯·尹在一份声明中表示。“房价处于历史高位，因此待售房屋在市场上停留的时间更长，与一年前相比，出价高于要价的买家更少，不过各地市场存在巨大差异。”
美国抵押贷款银行协会上周报告称，全美最受欢迎的30年期固定抵押贷款合同利率在截至8月7日的一周出现下降，这是6月中旬以来首次。不过，6.77%的利率仍接近一年多来的最高水平。
周一，美国全国住宅建筑商协会报告称建筑商的信心意外回升，但面对经济不确定性、高抵押贷款利率以及美国领导的伊朗战争推高的建筑成本，他们的整体信心仍显著低迷。
AI热潮助力制造业
疲软的楼市与强劲的制造业形成鲜明对比，后者再次受到大规模人工智能投资活动的提振，推动了对高科技设备以及建设和运营大型数据中心所需物资的需求。
美联储报告称，继6月经向上修正后的0.3%增长后，7月制造业产出指数上升0.2%。该指数达到2022年4月以来的最高水平。
“包括人工智能相关行业在内的常见推动因素推动了工业生产，尤其是耐用品制造业的增长，”牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家伯纳德·雅罗斯在一份报告中表示。
商业设备生产增长0.8%，其中信息处理设备增长1.5%，工业用品增长1.4%，抵消了运输设备产出的下滑。半导体产出增长2.4%，计算机及周边科技设备生产增长1.8%。
牛津经济研究院的雅罗斯预计这一增长势头将扩大，并带动高科技以外的其他行业。“人工智能正日益渗透到信息处理设备之外的其他投资商品领域，”他说。
在美国领导的伊朗战争带来的持续高支出背景下，国防生产也增长了1.8%。
汽车装配量从6月经季节调整后的年率1068万辆下滑至1042万辆。重型和中型卡车生产——货运和快递公司需求的指标——降至3月以来最低水平。
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US housing market remains under pressure in July; factory output rises
2026-08-18T12:55:20.699Z / Reuters
Aug 18 (Reuters) – U.S. single-family homebuilding fell sharply in July to the lowest in more than three-and-a-half-years and contract signings for purchases of existing homes also slid in the latest signal that the housing market remains under pressure from higher mortgage rates and economic uncertainty from the Iran war.
The manufacturing sector, meanwhile, continues to ride the coattails of the artificial intelligence build out, with a Federal Reserve measure of factory output hitting its highest in more than four years last month, led by production gains for high-tech equipment and industrial and construction supplies.
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Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, dropped 9.9% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 808,000 units, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Tuesday. That was the lowest since November 2022.
Single-family homebuilding slid 15.7% year-on-year in July.
Permits for future construction of single-family homes – an indicator of future new construction activity – rose 2.5% last month to a rate of 894,000 units. They were up 1.1% year-on-year in July for only the second yearly increase in the past two years, though the issuance rate remains near the slowest in three years.
“Until mortgage rates decline and allow builders to unload currently completed homes or those under construction, we expect home builders to remain hesitant to make significant investments in new projects,” Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers said.
Total new home starts – including multifamily structures such as apartments – fell 12.4% to 1.239 million in July. Economists polled by Reuters had estimated an annualized rate of 1.35 million.
Overall new issuance of residential construction permits rose 5.0% to a rate of 1.443 million units. Economists had estimated a permit run of 1.37 million.
Contract signings for existing homes – which become completed sales transactions typically a month or two later – also fell in July, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. They were down 2.3% on the month to the lowest level since January.
The residential real estate market remains in a deep rut, with high mortgage interest rates and limited supply of homes on the market hurting affordability and sales rates.
“The highest mortgage rates of the year hit right in the middle of summer, and that’s pulling back contract signings,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement. “Home prices are at record highs so houses for sale are sitting on the market longer, and fewer buyers are bidding above the asking price than a year ago, though there are large local market variations.”
The contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, the most popular U.S. home loan, ticked lower in the week ended August 7 for the first time since mid-June, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported last week. Still, at 6.77% it remains near the highest in more than a year.
On Monday the National Association of Home Builders reported an unexpected uptick in sentiment among construction firms, but their confidence overall remains significantly subdued in the face of economic uncertainty, high mortgage rates and steep building costs aggravated by the U.S.-led war with Iran.
AI BOOM HELPS FACTORIES
The weak housing market stands in contrast to a robust factory sector, buoyed yet again by hefty AI investment activity that is driving demand for high-tech equipment and the supplies needed to build and run massive data centers.
The Fed reported its manufacturing output index rose 0.2% in July on the heels of an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in June. The index was at its highest since April 2022.
“The usual suspects, including AI-linked industries, drove industrial production, and particularly durable goods manufacturing, higher,” Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said in a note.
Business equipment production rose 0.8%, led by a 1.5% gain in information-processing equipment and a 1.4% gain in industrial supplies, which offset a decline in transit equipment output. Semiconductor output rose 2.4% and computer and peripheral tech gear production rose 1.8%.
Oxford’s Yaros expects the momentum to broaden out and lift other sectors beyond high tech. “AI is increasingly spilling over into other investment goods beyond information processing equipment,” he said.
Defense production also rose 1.8% amid continued high spending from the U.S.-led war with Iran.
Motor vehicle assemblies slipped to 10.42 million on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate from 10.68 million in June. Heavy and medium truck production – an indicator of demand from trucking and delivery companies – fell to the lowest since March.
Reporting By Dan Burns; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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