2026年8月12日 / 美国东部时间上午10:01 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
作者：玛丽·坎宁安
通胀连续第二个月放缓，7月年化增速达3.4%，符合经济学家预期，这表明部分消费者价格压力或有所缓解。
关键数据
接受金融数据公司FactSet调查的经济学家此前预测，7月通胀年化率为3.4%。
消费者物价指数（CPI）是衡量消费者日常购买的一篮子商品和服务价格随时间变化的指标。
剔除波动性较大的能源和食品类别后的核心CPI同样在7月有所放缓，年化增速从6月的2.6%降至2.5%。
通胀自5月达到4.2%的三年峰值以来已有所回落，当时油价飙升推动汽油价格暴涨。不过当前通胀率仍远高于2月战前2.4%的水平，且持续超过工资涨幅——7月工资年化增速为3.2%。
“通胀正在吞噬许多人的工资增长成果，”海军联邦信用联盟首席经济学家希瑟·隆在一封电子邮件中说道。
随着6月CPI年化增速放缓至3.5%，部分经济学家认为5月可能是2026年的通胀峰值，并预测通胀将在全年持续回落。
blob:https://www.cbsnews.com/0451dc11-4d08-4046-98a1-a4ca907a8dc1
继上周公布出人意料的疲弱就业报告后，7月通胀数据对美联储9月的利率决策至关重要。上周的报告显示，上月雇主裁员2.3万人，而非此前预测的新增9.5万个就业岗位。
隆表示，除汽油外，包括食品和住房在内的多个类别价格均有所回落，这将使美联储暂停加息。
“这给新任美联储主席凯文·沃什提供了缓冲空间，他可以在采取行动前观察今年秋季的经济走势，”她在邮件中说道。
高利率是美联储抑制高通胀最有效的手段，因为借贷成本上升会抑制购买需求，有助于给经济降温。
能源价格的影响
美国劳工统计局数据显示，7月能源价格同比上涨14.7%，涨幅主要由汽油价格推动，后者上涨24.6%。
7月油价因霍尔木兹海峡局势升级以及伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装袭击红海航运而飙升。这场不断升级的冲突推动国际基准布伦特原油价格从月初的约71美元/桶，升至7月23日的100美元/桶以上。
尽管此后油价有所回落，但美国能源信息署的数据显示，上月美国司机平均每加仑汽油支付4.06美元，相比伊朗战争爆发前2月约3美元/加仑的均价有所上涨。
不过，穆迪分析首席经济学家马克·赞迪在7月CPI数据公布前通过邮件向哥伦比亚广播公司新闻表示，根据劳工统计局数据，7月汽油日均价格较6月便宜约10美分。
赞迪补充道，除非伊朗战争局势进一步升级，否则通胀可能会持续回落，到明年此时将接近美联储2%的年度通胀目标。
这对利率意味着什么？
专家表示，7月CPI数据加大了美联储在9月下次会议上维持利率不变的理由。不过加息也并非完全不可能，尤其是如果今年晚些时候通胀再度走高的话。
“今日的CPI数据叠加7月非农就业人数下降，应该会降低市场对9月加息的预期，但并未完全排除加息可能，”保诚资产管理全球首席执行官西玛·沙阿在邮件中说道。“除非8月通胀数据同样显示价格压力疲软，否则9月加息仍是明确风险。”
美联储在9月16日下次利率决策会议前，还将收到8月通胀报告，该报告定于9月11日公布。
编辑：艾米·皮奇
CPI report shows inflation eased in July to a 3.4% annual pace
August 12, 2026 / 10:01 AM EDT / CBS News
By Mary Cunningham
Inflation eased for the second consecutive month, rising at a 3.4% annual pace in July, in line with economists’ expectations and a signal that some consumer price pressures may be easing.
By the numbers
Economists polled by the financial data firm FactSet predicted July inflation rose at an annual rate of 3.4%.
The CPI, a basket of goods and services typically bought by consumers, tracks changes in prices over time.
Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile energy and food categories, also slowed in July, rising at an annual rate of 2.5%, down from 2.6% in June.
Inflation has eased since hitting a three-year high of 4.2% in May, when oil prices surged, sending gasoline costs soaring. Still, the inflation rate remains well above its pre-war level of 2.4% in February. Inflation also continues to outpace wage growth, which grew at an annual rate of 3.2% in July.
“Inflation is wiping out wage gains for many,” said Heather Long, the chief economist of the Navy Federal Credit Union, in an email.
With the CPI cooling to a 3.5% annual pace in June, some economists say May could mark an inflationary peak for 2026, with some forecasting that inflation will continue to ease throughout the year.
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July’s inflation data will be critical to the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate decision, following a surprisingly weak jobs report last week, which showed employers cut 23,000 jobs last month, rather than a forecast of 95,000 new hires.
Other than gasoline, prices for many categories — including food to shelter — are easing, which should keep the Federal Reserve on pause with interest rate hikes, Long said.
“This gives new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh some cover to wait and see what happens this fall before he has to act,” she said in an email.
Higher interest rates are the Fed’s most potent weapon to temper high inflation because costlier borrowing can dampen purchasing demand, helping to cool the economy.
Impact of energy prices
Energy prices in July jumped 14.7% from a year ago, with the increase mostly driven by higher gas prices, which rose 24.6%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.
Oil prices surged in July as tensions escalated in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen targeted shipping in the Red Sea. The escalating conflict pushed Brent crude, the international benchmark, from about $71 a barrel at the start of the month to above $100 by July 23.
While oil prices have eased since then, American drivers paid an average of $4.06 for a gallon of gasoline last month, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed. That compares with an average of about $3 a gallon in February, before the Iran war began.
Still, average daily gas prices in July were about 10 cents cheaper than in June, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told CBS News in an email before the July CPI data release, citing Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
Barring fresh escalations in the Iran war, inflation could continue to ease, dipping close to the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual goal by this time next year, Zandi added.
What does this mean for interest rates?
Experts said the July CPI data strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady at its next meeting in September. At the same time, a rate hike isn’t entirely off the table, especially if inflation moves higher later in the year.
“Today’s CPI print, alongside July’s drop in payrolls, should lower expectations for a September hike, but does not put it completely to bed,” Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist, Principal Asset Management, said in an email. “Unless August’s inflation print also shows subdued price pressures, a September hike is a clear risk.”
The Fed will receive one more CPI reading ahead of its next interest rate decision on Sept. 16, with the August inflation report scheduled for Sept. 11.
Edited by Aimee Picchi
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