建制派在威斯康星州反击——周二初选的其他关键结论

Establishment strikes back in Wisconsin and other takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries

2026-08-12T05:05:32.770Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/12/politics/wisconsin-south-carolina-minnesota-primaries-takeaways

The Democratic establishment roared back Tuesday in Wisconsin, as the party coalesced at the last minute behind the last moderate standing against democratic socialist Francesca Hong in the primary for governor.

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley — who dropped out of the race last month, only to jump back in after another prominent candidate’s exit — will narrowly defeat Hong, CNN’s Decision Desk projects.

Crowley’s victory reflects a primary electorate in a perpetual presidential battleground state that feared Hong might have been a much weaker candidate in the general election against Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany.

The outgoing, two-term governor, Tony Evers, hit the campaign trail in the race’s closing days to rally Democrats around Crowley. In interviews in recent days, Democratic voters in the state said Hong’s stumbles in television interviews — including a CNN interview in which she gave a meandering answer when asked about a 2020 tweet in which she advocated for canceling Thanksgiving — as they explained their worries about the 37-year-old state lawmaker and former restaurant owner’s electability.

The race was seen as a gauge of the party’s ideological direction: testing whether the progressive insurgency that has played out in deep-blue districts this spring and summer would extend into another presidential battleground, the week after Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic nomination in Michigan’s Senate primary.

August has been a big test for the left-wing of the Democratic Party – a rare chance for it to demonstrate its ability to win not just in deep-blue urban areas but also swing states.

But for the second straight week, its candidate had a dogfight on their hands. Last week, it was Abdul El-Sayed winning the Michigan Democratic Senate primary by a very narrow margin;this week, it was an even tighter loss for Hong.

So, what might explain this?

| CANDIDATE | VOTES |
| — | — |
| David Crowley Democratic | 39.8% 313,321 |
| Francesca Hong Democratic | 39.4% 310,110 |
| Kelda Roys Democratic | 7.5% 59,013 |
| Joel Brennan Democratic | 4.7% 36,981 |
| Sara Rodriguez Democratic | 4.1% 32,505 |
| Mandela Barnes Democratic | 4.1% 32,239 |
| Missy Hughes Democratic | 0.4% 3,234 |

One possibility is that some voters might be gun-shy about following through and voting for candidates who might struggle to win in the general election. Democratic leaders have worried greatly about nominating both El-Sayed and Hong, and perhaps some voters were convinced those votes would be too risky.

Polling primary elections is also more difficult than general elections, because the universe of voters isn’t as predictable. And there is some thought that these surveys might be over-sampling more-educated, urban voters (who favor more left-wing candidates) and under-sampling more rural, blue-collar ones.

Plus, there just wasn’t much quality polling in either race.

But in the case of the Hong-Crowley race, there could be another explanation: that the opposition to Hong simply consolidated late.

A late July poll from Marquette Law School showed Hong at 46%, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes at 21%, and Crowley at 11%.

Sometimes when it’s clear a race is coming down to two candidates, voters see that and decide to choose between them. Crowley became the alternative when Barnes dropped out the day after that poll was released.

Next door in Minnesota, progressives won yet another race that served as a proxy battle between the party’s left and center flanks.

Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan defeated moderate Rep. Angie Craig in the Democratic Senate primary. The two were competing for the party’s nomination to replace retiring Sen. Tina Smith.

Flanagan criticized Craig’s history of financial support from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. She also lambasted Craig’s vote for the Laken Riley Act, which mandates the detention of undocumented immigrants charged with certain crimes and which the congresswoman now says she regrets supporting. The issue of immigration enforcement became a flashpoint in Minnesota after federal agents shot and killed two US citizens who were protesting mass deportation efforts there in January.

Flanagan, however, never ignited the sorts of deep worries about electability that Hong faced in Wisconsin. She was also endorsed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, both of whom sat out the Wisconsin governor’s race.

The lieutenant governor will be the heavy favorite in November, when she’ll take on former NFL broadcaster Michele Tafoya, a first-time candidate.

Progressives notched another victory in Minnesota in the primary for the 2nd District House seat that Craig is vacating. Matt Little, a former state senator, emerged as the winner in a crowded field in the Twin Cities’ southern suburbs.

| CANDIDATE | VOTES |
| — | — |
| Peggy Flanagan Democratic | 59.0% 411,767 |
| Angie Craig Democratic | 39.4% 274,860 |
| Kurt Anderson Democratic | 0.6% 4,520 |

Darline Graham rode President Donald Trump’s support to a Senate appointment and, now, to first place in South Carolina’s Republican special primary for a full term. But whether it will take her any further in the August 25 runoff is a big open question.

Graham took about one-third of the vote on Tuesday, running well ahead of her new runoff opponent, Rep. Ralph Norman. But that’s no guarantee that she’ll be the favorite in the runoff, where the winner needs to get a majority of the vote.

In fact, Graham is pretty far from 50%-plus-one, relative to other Trump-endorsed candidates. Before Tuesday, only one Trump-backed statewide candidate took less of the primary vote than she did.

| CANDIDATE | VOTES |
| — | — |
| Darline Graham* Republican | 32.7% 109,629 |
| Ralph Norman Republican | 24.6% 82,541 |
| Russell Fry Republican | 19.6% 65,715 |
| Mark Sanford Republican | 14.9% 50,022 |
| Mark Lynch Republican | 5.9% 19,862 |

That was South Carolina Lt. Gov. Pam Evette in the June gubernatorial primary; she went on to lose by 37 points in the runoff, when her opponents’ supporters coalesced.

One of the other candidates in that gubernatorial primary was Norman, who finished in third place with 17% in the initial contest. That wasn’t a great showing, but it meant he had a statewide campaign infrastructure to tap into in the wake of Sen. Lindsey Graham’s death last month.

Norman has strong conservative bona fides as a leader of the House Freedom Caucus, which could be especially valuable in a one-on-one matchup with Darline Graham. And he served notice Tuesday that he’ll contrast his proven conservative record with her lack of a political track record.

“My record is an open book,” he said.

If Norman has one problem, it might be his decision in 2024 to back former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley over Trump. Norman has explained it was because of personal ties, but Trump often holds grudges over such things.

Not only does Graham have plenty of work to do, but MyPillow founder Mike Lindell’s loss in the Minnesota GOP gubernatorial primary means three Trump-backed candidates have lost since last Tuesday.

The first was Michigan congressional candidate Amir Hassan on August 4. He lost to a candidate who had dropped out of the race, Tom Smith, by double-digits.

Then it was incumbent Rep. Andy Ogles falling to former Tennessee Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher on Thursday.

And now it’s Graham going to a runoff and Lindell losing to Minnesota state House Speaker Lisa Demuth.

Lindell’s loss means seven Trump-backed candidates for Congress or statewide office have lost this primary season, including five who ran for statewide office.

The seven losses are more than Trump-backed candidates had in 2018, 2020 and 2024, according to a CNN review of data from Ballotpedia. And the four gubernatorial candidates who have now lost this year is more than in 2022, as well.

| CANDIDATE | VOTES |
| — | — |
| Lisa Demuth Republican | 43.4% 179,655 |
| Mike Lindell Republican | 32.5% 134,273 |

In central Connecticut, the Democratic divide was less about ideology than generational change as voters in the 1st District ousted 78-year-old incumbent Rep. John Larson in favor of 47-year-old former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin.

Bronin’s win is a reminder of just how restive Democratic voters are. The party’s youth movement is being accelerated in the aftermath of former President Joe Biden’s ill-fated decision to seek reelection, only to drop out of the race as concerns about the then 81-year-old president’s age and mental acuity mounted.

Larson, a 14-term incumbent, faced health concerns after abruptly freezing on the House floor during a February 2025 speech. He later said he suffered a complex partial seizure and had been prescribed medication that would “greatly reduce” the chances of another such episode.

The longtime congressman made the case that his seniority best positioned him to deliver on the district’s priorities. But Bronin said Democrats need a new direction and a greater sense of urgency in taking on the Trump administration. He won the Connecticut Democratic Party’s endorsement, and was also backed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a likely 2028 presidential contender.

| CANDIDATE | VOTES |
| — | — |
| Luke Bronin Democratic | 54.3% 29,905 |
| John Larson* Democratic | 32.8% 18,029 |
| Jillian Gilchrest Democratic | 8.1% 4,440 |

Rebecca Cooke will get the rematch she sought with Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden in southwestern Wisconsin after she fended off progressive rival Emily Berge, the former Eau Claire city council president, in the 3rd District Democratic primary.

It was a key race, with the Driftless Area congressional district looking like one of Democrats’ prime pick-up opportunities after Cooke, a small business owner and waitress who highlights her background as the daughter of dairy farmers, came within 3 percentage points of ousting Van Orden in a political environment more favorable to the GOP in 2024.

Establishment Democrats are backing Cooke, who has proven to be a strong fundraiser. But the race wasn’t a traditional progressive-versus-moderate showdown. Cooke has distanced herself from left-leaning policies like defunding the police and abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement. But she was also endorsed by Sanders, and aired a television advertisement focused solely on highlighting the Vermont senator’s support.

The biggest question entering Election Day was whether a progressive wave led by Hong would also sweep Berge to a surprise victory. But that surge did not materialize on Tuesday.

| CANDIDATE | VOTES |
| — | — |
| Rebecca Cooke Democratic | 60.5% 56,511 |
| Emily Berge Democratic | 39.4% 36,806 |