2026年8月7日 / 美国东部时间晚上7:05 / 哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）新闻
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奥利维亚·加齐斯
奥利维亚·加齐斯负责哥伦比亚广播公司新闻的情报与国际安全领域报道。她曾两次获得艾美奖提名，曾陪同美国国务卿出访全球多国，并在CBS新闻的电视、广播、网络及流媒体平台上报道情报、外交政策及其他安全议题。
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据知情美国官员向CBS新闻透露，美国情报评估显示，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京可能越来越愿意批准可能波及北约领土的挑衅行动。
官员们称，这些行动可能包括混合作战、网络攻击以及其他不便于直接追责的非常规军事行动手段。
美国官员表示，这些评估反映出普京的风险考量与短短几个月前相比发生了变化。官员们称，此举的目标未必是引发全面冲突，而是测试北约的团结性，以及特朗普政府对北约盟友遭遇袭击的应对意愿。
官员们表示，美国方面认定本周早些时候在德国莱比锡机场发现的装载爆炸物的无人机为俄罗斯所为。
官员们指出，其他一系列行动也加剧了担忧，包括俄罗斯无人机闯入罗马尼亚领空、上月有一枚俄罗斯导弹落入波兰境内，以及欧洲各地疑似 sabotage（破坏行动）、网络作战和其他混合战术的整体增多。
北约秘书长马克·吕特和其他欧洲领导人长期以来公开辩称，俄罗斯正在扩大混合战术的使用范围。吕特去年12月警告称：“我们是俄罗斯的下一个目标，我们已经身处险境”，并补充称莫斯科可能准备在“五年内”对北约使用军事力量。
此次美国情报评估出炉之际，俄罗斯在乌克兰战场仍在承受巨大损失。
中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫上月在一场国防论坛上表示，美国情报与公开的战场评估结果一致：新征召的俄罗斯新兵存活时间仅为20至30分钟，随后就会被击毙或负伤，这主要是因为乌克兰使用了人工智能驱动的攻击无人机。美国官员称，俄罗斯每月损失约3万名士兵，即每周损失5000至7000人——这一损失速度超过了其征兵速度。
与此同时，美国为结束这场战争开展的外交努力陷入停滞，重启谈判的前景不明。
中央情报局拒绝就美国情报机构的评估置评，北约也尚未回应置评请求。CBS新闻已联系俄罗斯驻华盛顿大使馆寻求置评。
《华尔街日报》最先报道了这一评估内容。
根据北约成立条约的第五条，这个拥有32个成员国的集团成员国应相互协助防御，将对任何一个成员国的袭击视为对全体成员国的袭击。
特朗普总统曾多次对该条款表示质疑，他去年称“第五条有多种定义”，并表示不确定在必要时北约成员国是否会协助防御美国。（2001年9月11日美国遭受基地组织袭击后，第五条是历史上唯一一次被启动。）
在其他场合，特朗普也曾表示美国会保护北约成员国。
特朗普曾抨击部分北约成员国，指责一些盟友未在本国国防上投入足够资金，并批评它们未加入美国对伊朗的战争。
他的政府还试图将更多国防责任转移给欧洲国家，并曾考虑从德国撤走数千名美军，不过总统今年早些时候取消了取消向波兰部署军队的计划。
俄罗斯袭击乌克兰首都基辅及周边地区致至少17人死亡
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/at-least-17-killed-in-ukraine-after-russian-strikes-on-capital-of-kyiv-and-surrounding-region/
俄罗斯袭击乌克兰首都基辅及周边地区，至少17人死亡
(时长02:04)
U.S. intelligence agencies warn Putin could test NATO by authorizing provocative actions
August 7, 2026 / 7:05 PM EDT / CBS News
By
Olivia Gazis
Olivia Gazis covers intelligence and international security matters for CBS News. Twice Emmy-nominated, she has traveled worldwide with the secretary of state and contributes reporting on intelligence, foreign policy and other security topics across CBS News broadcast, radio, online and streaming platforms.
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American intelligence assessments indicate Russian President Vladimir Putin could be increasingly willing to authorize provocative actions that could extend onto NATO territory, U.S. officials briefed on the matter told CBS News.
Those actions could include hybrid operations, cyberattacks and other deniable measures short of a conventional military campaign, the officials said.
The assessments reflect a shift in Putin’s risk calculus compared with just a few months ago, U.S. officials say. The likely goal would not necessarily be to trigger a broader conflict, but to test NATO’s unity and the Trump administration’s willingness to respond to an attack on a NATO ally, according to the officials.
The discovery earlier this week of an explosive-laden drone at an airport in Leipzig, Germany, is assessed by the U.S. to be of Russian origin, officials said.
Officials point to a pattern of other actions that have heightened concerns, including Russian drone incursions into Romania, a Russian missile that crossed into Poland last month and a broader uptick in suspected sabotage, cyber operations and other hybrid tactics across Europe.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and other European leaders have long argued publicly that Russia is expanding its use of hybrid tactics. “We are Russia’s next target, and we are already in harm’s way,” Rutte warned last December, adding Moscow could be ready to use military force against NATO “within five years.”
The U.S. assessments come as Russia continues to absorb enormous losses on the battlefield in Ukraine.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe said at a defense forum last month that U.S. intelligence is consistent with public battlefield estimates that newly arrived Russian recruits survive just 20 to 30 minutes before being killed or wounded, largely because of Ukraine’s use of AI-powered attack drones. U.S. officials have said Russia is losing roughly 30,000 troops a month, or between 5,000 and 7,000 a week — losses that are outpacing its recruitment rate.
U.S. diplomatic efforts to end the war, meanwhile, have stalled, with no clear path to renewed negotiations.
The CIA declined to comment on the assessment of U.S. intelligence agencies, and NATO has not yet responded to a request for comment. CBS News has reached out to the Russian Embassy in Washington for comment.
The Wall Street Journal was first to report on the assessment.
Under Article 5 of the treaty that created NATO, members of the 32-country bloc are expected to come to each other’s defense, treating an attack on any member state as an attack on them all.
President Trump has expressed doubts about that arrangement at times, saying last year there are “numerous definitions of Article 5” and he isn’t sure that NATO member states would come to the defense of the United States if needed. (Article 5 was invoked for the only time in history after the U.S. was targeted by al-Qaeda on Sept. 11, 2001.)
At other points, Mr. Trump has said the U.S. would protect NATO members.
Mr. Trump has lashed out at some NATO member states, accusing some allies of not spending enough on their own defense and criticizing them for not joining the U.S. war with Iran.
His administration has also sought to shift more responsibility for defense to European states, and has weighed pulling thousands of troops from Germany, though the president called off plans to cancel a deployment of troops to Poland earlier this year.
At least 17 dead from strikes on Ukraine
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/at-least-17-killed-in-ukraine-after-russian-strikes-on-capital-of-kyiv-and-surrounding-region/
At least 17 killed in Ukraine after Russian strikes on capital of Kyiv and surrounding region
(02:04)
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